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Nocheez
Sep 5, 2000

Can you spare a little cheddar?
Nap Ghost

Devian666 posted:

Here's something I read last night on whether or not to pay down your mortgage. There's no clear answer due to personal circumstances and a few conditions like if you have less than 20% equity.

http://www.heracliteanriver.com/?p=478

By all means treat a mortgage as leveraged shorting of currency based on inflation reducing the principle's value in the future when you pay it back. You can take that to mean that in a very low inflation environment, like now, you are betting in the wrong direction. I thought the general BFC advice was to not buy so that people actually consider what they are doing. It's better than buying the first piece of poo poo house you see thinking it will make you rich.

Thank you for sharing this. I have 2 properties with more than 20% in equity, both at 15-year loans. One is for 2.75% and the other is 2.875%, and I've been telling myself that it's silly to pay it off early. It's good to see someone's done a little more thinking about it and come to the same conclusion.

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Guest2553
Aug 3, 2012


Very little of that applies in Canada because most terms are fixed for 5 years, though you can pay a premium for 10 year terms. Not that anybody does cost benefit analyses up there anyways. How about we all agree that people should run the numbers for themselves and make decisions based on their own personal circumstances instead of getting preachy about our 'sample size n=1' anecdotes? tia.

Discussing what works (or didn't work) at an individual level for informative purposes is one thing, but we really don't need the :smug: commentary about those plebeian renters or financially illiterate rentiers

Olive Branch posted:

Always great for a reread. Another site/blogger that strikes me as BWM on the path to GTAT-like losses but at least aware of his risks of losing a lot of his money is MoneyGeek. He plans on getting his TFSA worth a million bucks by 2033 entirely via stock picking and chronicles his journey on his blog: http://www.moneygeek.ca/weblog/categories/personal-stories/jins-tfsa-updates/

His justification for not just buying and holding is that he worked as an oil/gas analyst for a top fund but from what I can tell that would just make him be more aware of the dangers of market timing/stock picking, not more confident on his own analysis skills. :shrug:

I saw that site earlier and it looked like a bunch of woo designed to push people towards paid memberships to his proprietary moneymaking schemes (C)(TM) DO NOT STEAL. His name sounded familiar so I did some digging, and it turns out the motherfucker lost 25 large last year. My balance was within a few hundred of his at the end of 2015 and I didn't even have a TFSA until 2014. lol.

Guest2553 fucked around with this message at 03:37 on Jan 19, 2016

ohgodwhat
Aug 6, 2005

Yeah but look at his competition:
http://www.moneysense.ca/save/tfsa/1st-place-rick-maureen-1m/

quote:

Investment strategy: All-in on one penny stock

fisting by many
Dec 25, 2009




quote:

By October 31, 2014, Kelso shares were trading at just under $6.53 per share. Rick has 79,100 shares in his TFSA while Maureen has 78,100, so their account balances were $516,297 and $509,784, respectively. The couple firmly believes the company will eventually be bought out and they’re determined to hold on to all of their shares until then. “We believe Kelso has the potential to climb to $25 a share,” says Rick. “We’re patient and will wait.”

quote:

Kelso Technologies Inc
TSE: KLS - Jan 18 3:35 PM EST
1.34

Whoops

Shipon
Nov 7, 2005

At least they're still well above where they bought in, but hopefully they learned to GTFO.

FlerpNerpin
Apr 17, 2006


Mojo Threepwood posted:

I was delighted to see a cameo appearance by my hometown heroes Washington Mutual.

Yeah, what happened there?

Guest2553
Aug 3, 2012


Bad with money: paying 25 bucks a month for online porn. Worse with money: forgetting to cancel the sub and not noticing it for 10 months.

:reddit:

e. : reddit : is a thing already lol

Guest2553 fucked around with this message at 08:12 on Jan 19, 2016

Phone
Jul 30, 2005

親子丼をほしい。

Guest2553 posted:

e. : reddit : is a thing already lol

The story behind it is even better.

Guest2553
Aug 3, 2012


Don't leave me hangin' bruh

vvvv e. If you're savvy enough to know those words then its safe to assume you're not the target audience.

Guest2553 fucked around with this message at 16:56 on Jan 19, 2016

BEHOLD: MY CAPE
Jan 11, 2004

Devian666 posted:

Here's something I read last night on whether or not to pay down your mortgage. There's no clear answer due to personal circumstances and a few conditions like if you have less than 20% equity.

http://www.heracliteanriver.com/?p=478

By all means treat a mortgage as leveraged shorting of currency based on inflation reducing the principle's value in the future when you pay it back. You can take that to mean that in a very low inflation environment, like now, you are betting in the wrong direction. I thought the general BFC advice was to not buy so that people actually consider what they are doing. It's better than buying the first piece of poo poo house you see thinking it will make you rich.

That was a looooooot of words to basically state that "the real cost of interest or real return on investment is the nominal interest rate minus inflation"

Switchback
Jul 23, 2001

My in-laws' retirement is in property, they have no pensions or retirement accounts anywhere due to taking new foreign assignments every couple years. So now they want to retire but the property they need to sell is in Malaysia, where the ringgit is worth like half what it used to be, and the market is dead at the moment so they wouldn't even be able to sell at a loss if they tried.

Guess daddio gets to keep working.

JayKay
Sep 11, 2001

And you thought they were cute and cuddly.

Zo posted:

Also if special needs kid was too depressing here's Mr moneybags going into the negative on margins


Oops forgot there thread link, though I imagine most people here have seen it


http://forum.thecontrarianinvestor.com/index.php?threads/gt-advanced-technologies-inc-gtat.69/

September 9th was a 40% drop and October 6th was bankruptcy

I've been knocked on my rear end because of the flu so I've had the time to go through that GTAT thread.

All I can say is :iit:


Page 316 is around the time when Apple does its huge iPhone 6 announcement with lack of SAPPHIRE being mentioned. The echo chamber leading up to the September 9th event and the subsequent grasping for straws and meltdown is amazing.

Also knowing that GTAT goes bankrupt in October makes all the posts with "Don't worry guys, stay in it for the long haul!" more hilarious.

Edit: I'm only at page 380 which is only 3 days after the announcement and value tanking. I haven't gotten to the major sob stories yet.

JayKay fucked around with this message at 18:27 on Jan 19, 2016

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

Guest2553 posted:

Bad with money: paying 25 bucks a month for online porn. Worse with money: forgetting to cancel the sub and not noticing it for 10 months.

:reddit:

e. : reddit : is a thing already lol

I left a $15/mo (I think) game subscription running for 2 years after I stopped playing. (I noticed after 8 months and had a problem logging in to unsubscribe, then forgot about it until my credit card expired.)

melon cat
Jan 21, 2010

Nap Ghost
Today on bad with money: The Toronto Star (a leading media outlet for Toronto) writes about how Canadian lotteries may be better value than U.S. lotteries like the Powerball. The logic?

quote:

Similar Canadian lotteries can offer slightly better return, partially because winnings aren’t taxed.

Sure, the article hints that you're not likely to win the lottery. But recommending a Canadian lottery over a U.S. one due to an entirely made-up "return" value to an audience whose relying on winning the lottery to fund their retirement, during a recession, probably isn't a good thing. Especially when you consider the recent scandal involving a number of Canada-wide lottery employees, whereas lotto employees and retailers (and their family members) mysteriously "won" the lotto a disproportionately amount of times.

And did I also forget to mention that Canada is now leading the G7 nations in household debt?

Where is my country going? :suicide:

melon cat fucked around with this message at 20:12 on Jan 19, 2016

Zamujasa
Oct 27, 2010



Bread Liar

JayKay posted:

I've been knocked on my rear end because of the flu so I've had the time to go through that GTAT thread.

All I can say is :iit:


Page 316 is around the time when Apple does its huge iPhone 6 announcement with lack of SAPPHIRE being mentioned. The echo chamber leading up to the September 9th event and the subsequent grasping for straws and meltdown is amazing.

Also knowing that GTAT goes bankrupt in October makes all the posts with "Don't worry guys, stay in it for the long haul!" more hilarious.

Edit: I'm only at page 380 which is only 3 days after the announcement and value tanking. I haven't gotten to the major sob stories yet.

Page 499 is where trading on GTAT is halted and 501 is where the bankruptcy announcement comes out.

quote:

quote:

gently caress! Bancrputcy!
Sam. Its not possible, the long road to bankruptcy is something investors know about. Lenders issue warnings and suppliers start winding down shipments. We believe that there has been massive shipments of alumina in recent weeks. This is not a company going into bankruptcy. Please, posting like this is not responsible and double please...calm down and think of your heart!

:allears:

pig slut lisa
Mar 5, 2012

irl is good


It's not timely at all, but "Bad With Money: gently caress! Bancrputcy!" would be a great thread title

Guest2553
Aug 3, 2012


Subjunctive posted:

I left a $15/mo (I think) game subscription running for 2 years after I stopped playing. (I noticed after 8 months and had a problem logging in to unsubscribe, then forgot about it until my credit card expired.)

That reminds me of a guy I knew who did the same thing, except the sub was on somebody else's credit card.

Who's the bigger idiot? :haw:

Dr. Eldarion
Mar 21, 2001

Deal Dispatcher

GTAT Thread posted:

posting like this is not responsible
This is my favorite part. Of everything in that thread like gambling your disabled kid's future or mom's retirement, apparently what's finally called out as irresponsible is posting a fact.

Barry
Aug 1, 2003

Hardened Criminal

Dr. Eldarion posted:

This is my favorite part. Of everything in that thread like gambling your disabled kid's future or mom's retirement, apparently what's finally called out as irresponsible is posting a fact.

Yeah that one is definitely a Top 10 moment in that thread. Some of my other favorites are people's accounting of their losses, doing detective work like driving by the Mesa facilities like it means anything at all, actually thinking they'll be able to sue whatever is left of GTAT and/or Apple and just the non-stop tea leave reading they engaged in for 500+ pages. Individual stock investors (one stock and one stock only) are a weird bunch.

Nail Rat
Dec 29, 2000

You maniacs! You blew it up! God damn you! God damn you all to hell!!

Dr. Eldarion posted:

This is my favorite part. Of everything in that thread like gambling your disabled kid's future or mom's retirement, apparently what's finally called out as irresponsible is posting a fact.

Followed by gems like this. The denial is so incredible.

quote:

Sam Gidwani said: ↑
BG, this is no longer speculation - it's on the GTAT website.

quote:

http://investor.gtat.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=874701
Even I know there is a difference between Ch 11 and BK. Time factor can be very big.
Oh, and the note on gtat's web says "and its affiliates" file for protection. Meaning LLC ia.

Hyrax Attack!
Jan 13, 2009

We demand to be taken seriously

Spiffness posted:

Yeah, what happened there?

Seattle Times did a good two part postmortem on WaMu that explains how they went from trusted family bank to predatory lender, beginning around 2003. It's a good read.

Highlights:

quote:

WaMu’s subprime home loans failed at the highest rates in nation. Foreclosure rates for subprime loans made from 2005 to 2007 — the peak of the boom — were calamitous. In the 10 hardest-hit cities, more than a third of WaMu subprime loans went into foreclosure.

By the summer of 2004, nearly 60 percent of the loans WaMu was making were the riskiest sort — option ARMs, subprime mortgages and home-equity loans.

quote:

“Someone in Florida had made a second-mortgage loan to O.J. Simpson, and I just about blew my top, because there was this huge judgment against him from his wife’s parents,” she recalled. Simpson had been acquitted of killing his wife Nicole and her friend but was later found liable for their deaths in a civil lawsuit; that judgment took precedence over other debts, such as if Simpson defaulted on his WaMu loan.

“When I asked how we could possibly foreclose on it, they said there was a letter in the file from O.J. Simpson saying ‘the judgment is no good, because I didn’t do it.’

quote:

A WaMu daily rate sheet obtained by The Seattle Times shows how lavish the rewards could be. On an option ARM, WaMu would reward brokers as much as 3 percent of the loan amount — more than triple the standard commission at the time.

Brokers would get an additional point — 1 percent of the loan — for roughly every half-point in higher interest the borrower paid. So the broker would get 3 percent of the loan if he could get the borrower to pay 1.5 percent above the market rate.

Part 1: http://www.seattletimes.com/business/part-one-reckless-strategies-doomed-wamu/
Part 2: http://www.seattletimes.com/business/part-two-wamu-hometown-bank-turned-predatory/

FlerpNerpin
Apr 17, 2006


Wow. I never realized how hosed it was over there. WaMu was a great regional bank (on the customer side at least) and I always wondered how it went so bad so fast...

That would do it.

SiGmA_X
May 3, 2004
SiGmA_X

Spiffness posted:

Wow. I never realized how hosed it was over there. WaMu was a great regional bank (on the customer side at least) and I always wondered how it went so bad so fast...

That would do it.
I banked with them from 03-06, I never, ever got the feeling that they were a great bank. Ever.

Subjunctive
Sep 12, 2006

✨sparkle and shine✨

Welp. Due to some confusion between myself and my ex-wife about which money was supposed to be where, we moved some money several times between CAD and USD, coughing up a bunch in currency exchange fees to end up basically where we started.

Zo
Feb 22, 2005

LIKE A FOX

Dr. Eldarion posted:

This is my favorite part. Of everything in that thread like gambling your disabled kid's future or mom's retirement, apparently what's finally called out as irresponsible is posting a fact.

For me that thread is just super entertaining non-stop from right before the iPhone 6 announcement, but my personal favorite part is the few minutes before the bankruptcy announcement when trading of GTAT was inexplicably halted, and the only explanation that the hivemind could think of was an apple buyout which would make them rich.

Most blueballs aspect is that two posters allegedly held 1% of the float each (several million $$?) but never posted after the bankruptcy announcement. Tied up in litigation, or just literally tied up, I suppose.

Devian666
Aug 20, 2008

Take some advice Chris.

Fun Shoe
BWM: Financial Domination Edition.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ad6bpsQmV5Q

Krispy Wafer
Jul 26, 2002

I shouted out "Free the exposed 67"
But they stood on my hair and told me I was fat

Grimey Drawer

Zo posted:

For me that thread is just super entertaining non-stop from right before the iPhone 6 announcement, but my personal favorite part is the few minutes before the bankruptcy announcement when trading of GTAT was inexplicably halted, and the only explanation that the hivemind could think of was an apple buyout which would make them rich.

Most blueballs aspect is that two posters allegedly held 1% of the float each (several million $$?) but never posted after the bankruptcy announcement. Tied up in litigation, or just literally tied up, I suppose.

My favorite part is that all those people made an incredibly risky bet on weak info at the same time the stock market was booming.

I understand taking on risk when the market is down or stagnant, but the returns in 2013 were the best in two decades and 2014 was pretty good too.

Several posters talked about what sub-10 dollar/share stock about-to-pop they should invest their GTAT profits into. :rolleyes:

Barry
Aug 1, 2003

Hardened Criminal

Krispy Kareem posted:

My favorite part is that all those people made an incredibly risky bet on weak info at the same time the stock market was booming.

I loved all the armchair chemists and industrial engineers talking about sapphire ingots and furnaces and all that. Like trying to do power consumption calculations to determine how many furnaces were running.

Or the people trying to figure out sales figures and how rich they'll be from sapphire on the apple watch or the lenses of the iPhone cameras.

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
I wonder if they think index funds are for suckers.

Krispy Wafer
Jul 26, 2002

I shouted out "Free the exposed 67"
But they stood on my hair and told me I was fat

Grimey Drawer

Moneyball posted:

I wonder if they think index funds are for suckers.

Probably. You can see a sort of hierarchy in that GTAT thread between people who got in early and those who came later. Had the investment worked out a lot of those people would have followed the alpha investors into the next big thing until they lost everything. No way they're content with 10% average returns after doubling or tripling their money on GTAT. I don't think there's a scenario where half of those people don't lose all their money in 5 years.

cowofwar
Jul 30, 2002

by Athanatos
Someone who goes all-in on penny stocks will go bankrupt eventually.

antiga
Jan 16, 2013

I've always thought that if you took two guys and have them each invest $1000 in an individual stock, the one who immediately loses his bankroll is better off than the one who triples it in the first month. The 'winner' will lose a whole lot more than $1000 when he goes busto.

Space Skeleton
Sep 28, 2004

Maybe not perfectly fitting in this thread but Banks hate this!

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

antiga posted:

I've always thought that if you took two guys and have them each invest $1000 in an individual stock, the one who immediately loses his bankroll is better off than the one who triples it in the first month. The 'winner' will lose a whole lot more than $1000 when he goes busto.

It's all unrealized value so it's basically no different.

Krispy Wafer
Jul 26, 2002

I shouted out "Free the exposed 67"
But they stood on my hair and told me I was fat

Grimey Drawer

KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

It's all unrealized value so it's basically no different.

The guy who lost 3k gets a bigger tax break.

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Krispy Kareem posted:

The guy who lost 3k gets a bigger tax break.

There's also an opportunity cost to the effort to actively manage the money over a longer period of time, I suppose.

Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Dec 22, 2005

GET LOSE, YOU CAN'T COMPARE WITH MY POWERS
The more money you make and then immediately lose, the more likely you are to learn your lesson....I hope.

Magic Underwear
May 14, 2003


Young Orc

Krispy Kareem posted:

The guy who lost 3k gets a bigger tax break.

No he doesn't, it's based on cost basis.

Krispy Wafer
Jul 26, 2002

I shouted out "Free the exposed 67"
But they stood on my hair and told me I was fat

Grimey Drawer

Magic Underwear posted:

No he doesn't, it's based on cost basis.

Oh yeah...I guess that wouldn't matter then.

I've never lost money in the stock market so I've never had the chance to claim losses against my taxes.

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Guest2553
Aug 3, 2012


Devian666 posted:

BWM: Financial Domination Edition.

:stonk: I wonder a) what the market is like for male findoms, and 2) how much of my soul I'd have to trade to make it happen. It's pretty awesome with money if you're on the other side of that particular fence.

Krispy Kareem posted:

I've never lost money in the stock market

Quoted for posterity.

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