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BrandorKP posted:Whatever is done needs to have an eyes towards making their narrative look like pathetic hypocritical bullshit. People keep saying this, but how do we do that? If we just leave them be for the next two months and then quietly arrest them* then the narrative becomes "The federal government is too weak to stand up to you; do whatever you want!". Do you honestly think that is a narrative we want them to be pushing? Because that's exactly what they are and will continue to do. *Haha, j/k, they'll never be arrested
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Jan 23, 2016 23:07
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Who What Now posted:People keep saying this, but how do we do that? If we just leave them be for the next two months and then quietly arrest them* then the narrative becomes "The federal government is too weak to stand up to you; do whatever you want!". Do you honestly think that is a narrative we want them to be pushing? Because that's exactly what they are and will continue to do. At this point the best option I can think of is to wait to until the militia steps so egregiously over the line that even (most of) the GOP will be unable to complain when the feds swoop in, or to keep it out of the public mind as long as possible until it collapses from internal strife. At this point I personally do not feel the latter option is possible anymore. The Governor's actions have pushed this past the point where it would have run out of Steam before the group convinces itself to expand its operations beyond their current scope. They had poo poo loads of food/supplies as if a week ago, and the donations are only going to increase in the wake of the Governor legitimizing the threat they pose in the minds of the radical right. This video is from a week ago, but it shows a very well stocked and comfortable operation with plenty of support flowing in. https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=RrzamFEktI0 Based on my insight into the situation, I expect that of numbers at the range continue to slowly build, then at some point the militia is going to start thinking less of occupying their facility and more of seizing assets they deem useful to the 2nd American Civil War. One strong possibility I see is that at some point they will convince themselves that they are not just protesting for the Hammonds, but rather that they are the tip of the spear of a gigantic grass roots rebellion. They will start thinking in more strategic (insane and detached from reality, but nonetheless strategic) ways about what sorts of resources would be useful to their noble, God-sanctioned cause. They will likely select an easily defended area/structure and conjure an especially lovely justification for seizing it "in the name of the people". What that target will be is impossible to predict, could be a gas station they want to use, could be a building they mistakenly believe is somehow Federal that they seize downtown. Another possibilty is that they feel betrayed somehow by the local authorities and retaliate by doing something to let the locals know who the boss is. Shooting violence is an increased possibility during the seizure process. Bear in mind that this is just one outsiders analysis. I don't have a crystal ball. That said, based on my own experiences, I am unable at this time to conjure a scenario where this ends before the seditionists self radicalized to the point of expanding their operation in some way. Another concern is that Ammon is feeding off the attention this is generating, and he isn'the the only one. Despite the best efforts of the FBI to starve them of attention, the Governor's actions have convinced them that they are very close to getting massive national attention. The attention these people are being paid is like a drug to them. They are a bunch of heavily armed addicts with nothing to do all day but dream up ways to get high. Eventually they will figure out a way to secure a steady supply. Edit: Can't seem to get video tags to work while phonepostong, so I changed it to a link instead. Prester Jane fucked around with this message at 23:52 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Jan 23, 2016 23:43
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Prester John posted:If I could jump in here and offer my perspective (as someone raised on the environment that creates radicals like these) on why the FBI is handling this the way it is. Yep, this is exactly why this "militia" should have been dealt with within the first 24 hours of occupying the refuge, before they had a chance to start broadcasting their insane message. FBI action should have been swift and immediate. They should have surrounded the refuge with 10 black SUVs, 50 agents and 4 SWAT teams. None of the idiots would have had the balls to fire a single shot and they would have been rounded up quickly. We would be watching their trial right now.
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Jan 23, 2016 23:57
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kartikeya posted:Yeah, this is a Mormon thing, and a big part of Mormon theology. In the church there's a hierarchy of who gets revelations that affect whom (basically, if you're a parent, then for your family generally, if it happens, if you're a bishop then for your ward/area, etc, up to the Prophet who gets the big revelations), so basically, if there was some revelation from God about 'you must start a new American revolution' or something, it would be the Prophet of the church getting that, a la the way the Pope speaks for God. But that's something that pretty easily falls by the wayside when you start getting fringey and radicalized (and if you're part of a Mormon splinter group, or you're splintering off for whatever reason, then you're already considering yourself/your new chosen leader to have the righter way than the Prophet, so personal revelation along those wildly dangerous lines doesn't conflict at all. I don't actually know if the Bundy's are LDS or a splinter fundamentalist group). This whole thing is pretty personally aggravating for these reasons. Joseph Smith made a prophecy about a future Messiah figure called "the one mighty and strong" that bypasses the whole hierarchy thing. More than one fringe Mormon nutjob has laid claim to the title right before doing something horrifying. kazmeyer fucked around with this message at 00:21 on Jan 24, 2016 |
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Jan 24, 2016 00:19
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The means to stop this quickly are fully possible but involve "law enforcement" doing things we don't normally nor should we allow. I don't think the problem is left versus right groups so much as for as much as they play at it, this is with the militias armorment a military engagement, not a political one. We really don't want a domestic counter insurgency force though. E: and obviously there's issues with admiting reality that " these men have taken up arms against the US government"
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Jan 24, 2016 00:33
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Prester John posted:At this point the best option I can think of is to wait to until the militia steps so egregiously over the line that even (most of) the GOP will be unable to complain when the feds swoop in, or to keep it out of the public mind as long as possible until it collapses from internal strife. How egregious can you get? They are defiling important archaeological sites, disrupting local families, threatening the community and fostering a message that armed sedition is not only acceptable, but easy enough to sustain and use for messaging against their opponent. They have destroyed lives, history and stability. That should be more than egregious enough to get someone to step in, but the feds aren't even showing a token resistance. When this started there should have been a cordon raised, utilities cut off and access completely denied before they could build up capabilities as they have. We've let them dig in, and now they're rooted there. What will it take to remove them without blowback at this point? I don't think even murder would get enough of a reaction from the feds, and the Bundy Brigade could say it was in self defense or sell out one person to get out of jail free.
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Jan 24, 2016 00:46
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J.A.B.C. posted:How egregious can you get? They are defiling important archaeological sites, disrupting local families, threatening the community and fostering a message that armed sedition is not only acceptable, but easy enough to sustain and use for messaging against their opponent. I'm pretty sure murder would essentially force them to act, they're already facing enough scrutiny with their response as it is. Murder erases any doubt from even most wingnuts that these guys are righteous patriots who just want to defend themselves. They're not going to murder some random person in all likelihood though.
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Jan 24, 2016 00:58
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I don't know much about the OWS deaths but if what I'm reading here is true than anyone attributing them to the movement needs to also include the gadsen/las vegas shooters as a part of Bundy's "movement". And that's even if you assume the very convenient narrative about them being asked to leave is true
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Jan 24, 2016 01:00
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J.A.B.C. posted:How egregious can you get? They are defiling important archaeological sites, disrupting local families, threatening the community and fostering a message that armed sedition is not only acceptable, but easy enough to sustain and use for messaging against their opponent. They will have to do something that even Ted Cruz will be forced to publicly decry, or failing that, something that makes us lose face in the International community.
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Jan 24, 2016 01:08
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kazmeyer posted:Joseph Smith made a prophecy about a future Messiah figure called "the one mighty and strong" that bypasses the whole hierarchy thing. More than one fringe Mormon nutjob has laid claim to the title right before doing something horrifying. Yes, and no. The prophecy he made there wasn't for a 'messiah' as it was essentially 'if this guy doesn't get his poo poo in order (the guy being a particular leader of the church who was on the outs at the time with the rest of the leadership) God is going to send someone else to do his job'. Said dude did, in fact, get his poo poo in order, so the prophecy (calling it that is a little weird in context, it makes it seem more important than it actually was) didn't really matter any more. It's summarized in detail here: https://www.lds.org/manual/doctrine...he-ark?lang=eng (of course, this is an official Mormon website, so people can argue meaning as they like, but that's the official position of the Mormon church). quote:D&C 85:7. Why Are Individuals Still Claiming to Be the “One Mighty and Strong”? And you're right, fringey crazies who have some beef or another with the official church leadership like to paint themselves as the chosen one they think Joseph Smith talked about because that's convenient if you want to think you're God's chosen nutjob. Context or intent ceases to matter (especially since they think they know better than leadership, and, of course, it's leadership explaining the context). All of this basically saying 'hey Mormons have a lot of fringe crazies like pretty much every other major religion, it sucks'. I see it in a lot of comments on this thing (only slightly insinuated by one or two people in this thread, and a while ago, but regular news article comments) that oh gosh it might be the Mormon church secretly supporting them! and that's kind've really silly, but it's easy to conflate people who share similar core beliefs into sharing similar beliefs about other things. The reality is that mainstream Mormons really aren't any fonder of fringe nutjobs than anyone else, and really reeeeeally don't like the fundamentalism communes that tend to spring up around polygamy. In other news, more people at the refuge: https://twitter.com/jjmacnab/status/691038011174223872 Which is infuriating, but this part is great: https://twitter.com/jjmacnab/status/691048721115557888
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Jan 24, 2016 01:11
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Live feed bitches https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZgy2ZyWaHc First thing I saw in the chat: "Pray for YHWH to turn the Fed Coats against one another as He has done the enemies of His children in times past"
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Jan 24, 2016 01:12
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Aesop Poprock posted:That said I really doubt this event is bringing any of those people out in droves in the first place. Considering how many whackos on the internet seem to be into what they're doing their real-life support seems muted in contrast. This alone isn't going to be the catalyst of anything big in terms of violent uprisings. https://twitter.com/KieranSuckling/status/690716781992783872 Welp
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Jan 24, 2016 01:15
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Maybe the militants should designate Burns, OR as Burns-ning Man for an annual gathering of second amendment enthusiasts, conspiracy theorists, constitution fetishists, and other high-minded fellow travelers every winter. Bond with their fellow humanity in the refuge of rural Oregon in federally-provided buildings and pontificate on the evils of government. They even have the dildos for it! Teriyaki Koinku fucked around with this message at 01:26 on Jan 24, 2016 |
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Jan 24, 2016 01:23
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https://twitter.com/KieranSuckling/status/691055606422056960 Sucking is the head of the Center for Biological Diversity, a push group aimed at promoting environmental causes. He's the one who headed some of the counterprotests. Comments and tweets from him should be taken with a grain of salt, since he has his own agenda to push. No info on who the sovcit judge is.
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Jan 24, 2016 01:37
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J.A.B.C. posted:How egregious can you get? They are defiling important archaeological sites, disrupting local families, threatening the community and fostering a message that armed sedition is not only acceptable, but easy enough to sustain and use for messaging against their opponent. Sorry, but in what world do you live in where the GOP gives a poo poo about any of these things? In fact a significant part of the GOP (the Tea Party) is probably quite OK with sedition. And defiling archeological sites? Fuckin lol dude. Are you not aware of Republican attitudes towards Native Americans? Aside from that, what local families have they disrupted? As far as I can tell, the only people adversely affected are the few folks who work at that refuge.
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Jan 24, 2016 01:38
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Discendo Vox posted:https://twitter.com/KieranSuckling/status/691055606422056960 You don't have to take his word for it. That picture is from the ongoing live stream that I just posted. It's happening right now.
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Jan 24, 2016 01:39
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That sign they're standing in front of? They've taken it upon themselves to rename the national wildlife refuge to, simply, HARNEY COUNTY LAND: WELCOME AND ENJOY A FREE LAND BY THE PEOPLE.
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Jan 24, 2016 01:42
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Prester John posted:The Governor's actions have pushed this past the point where it would have run out of Steam before the group convinces itself to expand its operations beyond their current scope. Huh? What "actions"? Have we gotten to the point where suggesting these guys don't belong on the refuge and should be removed is just too much?
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Jan 24, 2016 01:43
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As a Millennial I posted:That sign they're standing in front of? They've taken it upon themselves to rename the national wildlife refuge to, simply, HARNEY COUNTY LAND: WELCOME AND ENJOY A FREE LAND BY THE PEOPLE. Wonderful. At this rate not only will we not see any form of punishment, but they'll likely become politically accepted by the (slightly) less delusional rest of the right wing.
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Jan 24, 2016 01:53
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https://twitter.com/jjmacnab/status/691052545062514693
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Jan 24, 2016 01:53
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I think it was right of the governor to say something. The militia is leaning heavily on the authority of state and local government to protest against the federal government. And now both the Governor of Oregon and the Sheriff of Harney County are now on record saying the militants are wrong. Like the old saying goes, "silence gives consent", and it would have also emboldened the wingnuts if the Sheriff and Governor shrugged their shoulders and gave no comment on the occupation.
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Jan 24, 2016 01:53
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Jan 24, 2016 01:56
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JFC he's really trying to trick the camera's perspective into making a 140lb black bear look like a 450 lb black bear. Look at that boot and the dog's head 
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Jan 24, 2016 02:07
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marshalljim posted:Huh? What "actions"? She gave them justification to escalate and drew national attention back on them when it was starting to wane. And now 3 days later the militia has formed a military tribunal with a judge that is going to start insuring crazy pants orders that the militia will eventually try to enforce. The Governor hosed up big.
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Jan 24, 2016 02:09
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Glad to see Ryan Bundy isn't too busy at the
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Jan 24, 2016 02:10
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Prester John posted:She gave them justification to escalate and drew national attention back on them when it was starting to wane. And now 3 days later the militia has formed a military tribunal with a judge that is going to start insuring crazy pants orders that the militia will eventually try to enforce. They said they were going to do this already and have already threatened to lynch the sheriff
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Jan 24, 2016 02:12
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Prester John posted:She gave them justification to escalate and drew national attention back on them when it was starting to wane. And now 3 days later the militia has formed a military tribunal with a judge that is going to start insuring crazy pants orders that the militia will eventually try to enforce. Pretty sure they were already planning on bringing out the nutcase judge well before the Governor said a word.
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Jan 24, 2016 02:16
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Yeah, because Martial law in a county in Oregon is certainly going to stop a presidential election.
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Jan 24, 2016 02:16
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Anything good from the stream? I really don't feel like watching.
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Jan 24, 2016 02:19
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Epic High Five posted:They said they were going to do this already and have already threatened to lynch the sheriff I stand corrected. The Governor may have done little more than accelerate the inevitable then. In either case they now have a sufficient clowns how to really draw some attention. Buckle the gently caress up ladies and gents, we ain't seen nothing yet. Things are about to get crazy on a whole new level.
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Jan 24, 2016 02:23
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Epic High Five posted:They said they were going to do this already and have already threatened to lynch the sheriff No, see, they haven't explicitly threatened to lynch Sheriff Ward. They've just professed their belief that The Constitution would allow them to lynch a sheriff, if that sheriff were convicted by a Citizen's Grand Jury. If a certain sheriff violates his oath of office and needs to be lynched for it, that's his fault. And if anybody has threatened to lynch this guy, well, that's just an unaffiliated crazy person, he's not one of the Peaceful Occupiers.
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Jan 24, 2016 02:24
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http://www.oregonlive.com/oregon-standoff/2016/01/malheur_field_station_manager.html#comments Here's an interesting piece about Duncan Evered, who you might remember as the guy talking during the awesome video with the woman dressed up as a bird. Of all the people in this mess, he's probably been the most affected. His home, where he's lived for years is the field station. These people are thumbing through his personal stuff.
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Jan 24, 2016 02:25
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To suggest that Governor Brown remain timid and silent is absurd. There is an armed rebellion taking place in her state, the perpetrators need to be captured or killed. The feds don't have a plan (hint for understanding the government: when the plan is a secret, there is no plan). She needed to speak up and apply pressure and I'm glad she did.Prester John posted:I feel that your approach would fan the flames to other states and counties, creating numerous copycats. Further, various political enemies of the US would be waiting for the next one of these to pop up so they could send them whatever support they can, turning the tables on our foreign policy by supporting our own violent domestic separatist movement. Capture or kill them all. Just keep doing it.
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Jan 24, 2016 02:25
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Here's a letter to the sheriff from "American Common Law Superior Court Judge Anna von Reitz", sent before the occupation began. The common law tribunal bullshit has been a part of this from day one.
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Jan 24, 2016 02:26
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SedanChair posted:To suggest that Governor Brown remain timid and silent is absurd. There is an armed rebellion taking place in her state, the perpetrators need to be captured or killed. The feds don't have a plan (hint for understanding the government: when the plan is a secret, there is no plan). She needed to speak up and apply pressure and I'm glad she did. There would be thousands of civilian casualties in the resulting backlash from the extreme right wing. The number of right wing crazies sufficiently radicalized to turn violent is still small. If we took your approach those numbers would shoot through the roof. We would eventually kill them all of course, but parts of the country would look like Somalia by the time it was done. We are facing genuine armed insurrection, but on a very small scale. The best course for now is to keep that scale as small as possible. If you legitimizever the seditionists enough they will gain credibility in the GOP mainstream. Having a Trump or Cruz make a speech/photo opportunities at the refuge is not in the cards at present, but if you legitimize them sufficiently then it becomes an inevitability.
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Jan 24, 2016 02:34
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Everything is blow back including nothing and breathing : Prester John
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Jan 24, 2016 02:37
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Prester John posted:There would be thousands of civilian casualties in the resulting backlash from the extreme right wing. The number of right wing crazies sufficiently radicalized to turn violent is still small. If we took your approach those numbers would shoot through the roof. We would eventually kill them all of course, but parts of the country would look like Somalia by the time it was done. If the GOP can be driven to openly associate themselves with terrorists after they have killed federal agents, then we might as well get that out in the open.
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Jan 24, 2016 02:43
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SedanChair posted:If the GOP can be driven to openly associate themselves with terrorists after they have killed federal agents, then we might as well get that out in the open. There only thing preventing the Tea Party wing from doing that is a combination of lack of oppurtunity and the perception that it would hurt their poll numbers. Remove those impediments and a sociopath like Cruz, Fiorina, or Trump will do it in a heartbeat. And sleep like a baby later that night. Edit: Look, I understand the anger here. I've got more reason than most to want these fools ground to dust. But an aggressive approach is what these guys want, it plays right into their hands. Prester Jane fucked around with this message at 02:58 on Jan 24, 2016 |
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Jan 24, 2016 02:50
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Jan 24, 2016 03:04
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Ahhhhh  Ok, ok I think I get it now. The rancher fucks are just a gaggle of these dipshits who leave beer cans and shotgun shells in the Olympic rainforest. The feds are the patient park ranger following them around with a video camera, taking pictures of them committing acts of vandalism. But jesus christ this is an ecological catastrophe! That's what I'm worried about, they are inflicting millions in damages to a nature preserve. The loving Hammonds are known ecological terrorists, they've burned federal lands DURING ACTIVE WILDFIRES and through sheer luck managed not to kill any firefighters. This is already intolerable escalation above that. These guys think they can reclaim federal wildlife reserves by destroying them. They are trying to colonize federal land.
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Jan 24, 2016 03:18
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