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Jarmak posted:Am I seriously the only person who appreciates the irony of a literal crazy person crafting an entire mythology complete with it's own capitalized vocabulary out of while cloth in order to characterize a group of people she accuses of living according to a crafted mythology and have everyone nod sagely.  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 26, 2016 02:23
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Prester John posted:It's hard to arrest a pile of corpses, which is pretty much the only way the seditionists will be removed by force. All your approach will do is create a spate of martyrs in the age of social media. And right now they're spinning themselves as conquering heroes. Who loving cares what narrative they spin if they always create a narrative where they win? Why should we wait until they commit murder before stopping them?
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Jan 26, 2016 02:26
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Prester John posted:I am talking specifically about other militia standoffs that ended because no one but the militia showed up and the press generally ignored them. These had the potential to become full fledged standoffs just like we have had elsewhere. I am using that example to argue that ignoring these things as much as possible is the best way to reduce the amount of violence that will occur. I am not arguing that it will prevent all violence altogether. Once Howell was inside his house, name the method in Waco that would have had less bloodshed while also enforcing the law. There was no possible bloodless endgame at that point. Outside of the Marshalls being told about Weaver's work as an informant, how could you have gotten him to federal court? Mind you he was already holed up in his house before they were even aware and every time they had contacted him he said he'd shoot if arrested. People love digging on these events, but they've never got alternatives that involve maintaining the rule of law. Prester John posted:With Eaco/Bundy Ranch/Ruby my Ridge you all had situations where the Fed was present and visible, and those situations resulted in further attacks. With the fizzled militia attempts to initiate a standoff, you did not have further attacks inspired. This essentially amounts to saying that the rule of law should not exist and is a terrifying precedent. Consider this, all the scenarios you just listed were massive stand offs where the media had time to set up and report. By this frame of reference, if media coverage during the event is what 'causes' other crazies to attack, wouldn't it follow that you'd want to IMMEDIATELY move in and arrest everyone before the media has any time to really report on a story? If the goal of the feds was to have them fizzle out, why not a barebones "Cut the internet and power" to cut them off of the very recruitment tools you fear? Prester John posted:I'm not saying there is a way to prevent future violence, there isn't. What I am saying is that non-confrontation until it is absolutely unavoidable us the best path to reduce the amount of violence that this event will inevitably inspire. You can't reduce violence with these people and assuming you can by entering their warped mental framework is a losing task. All you can really do is try to scare the non-crazies from joining in the first place and having this poo poo normalized. Prester John posted:Look at it this way, if you go charging in and mow the seditionists down, then Malheur will become holy ground soaked in the blood of Patriots and the residents of Burns will be blamed for not supporting the militia enough. Burns would become a very popular destination for right wingers looking to go on shooting rampages and there would be random mass shootings every so often for a decade. Then you spend the resources to make sure that doesn't happen to the best of your ability.
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Jan 26, 2016 02:32
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oohhboy posted:I said arrest them, not turn them into a pile of corpses before trying to. If you want to arrest corpses be my guest, but that isn't what I asked for. There is no way to arrest them without a signifigantly portion of them becoming corpsified. They aren't going to lay down their guns and surrender, they will shoot first and blame the Federal government. Who What Now this isn't about whatever narrative the seditionists create for themselves. You are correct that they will tell themselves they won no matter what. This is about reducing the number of borderline cases that the fallout from this inspires to cross that mental line and become violent themselves. Waiting for now is about reducing the number of future violent incidents. It is a lovely option, but it is the least lovely option in the Kobayashi Maru situation that the FBI finds itself in at presemt.
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Jan 26, 2016 02:35
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Jarmak posted:Am I seriously the only person who appreciates the irony of a literal crazy person crafting an entire mythology complete with it's own capitalized vocabulary out of while cloth in order to characterize a group of people she accuses of living according to a crafted mythology and have everyone nod sagely. What the gently caress are you talking about? Also, here's how some people will react to a blockade: https://twitter.com/Patztense/status/691621728229941248
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Jan 26, 2016 02:38
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As a Millennial I posted:What the gently caress are you talking about? Fairly certain he's talking about Prester John.
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Jan 26, 2016 02:40
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Just because someone doesn't kowtow the threads group think, they should get out? Glad the quest for ideological purity works on both sides.
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Jan 26, 2016 02:41
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I think people are overlooking just how complicated it would be to deal with them by force. Like, it's not as simple as "Just send in the police and arrest all of them.". Maybe things have changed but last I heard they weren't just at the refuge. They were all over the town loving around with the townspeople and generally just making nuisances of themselves in the general area. And that's not counting the ones who show up part time and go off to a hotel or back home instead of staying on site at the refuge. Or the conspiracy nuts that seem to drift in and out of the town and refuge according to whatever screwed up ideology happens to be the headline of the day. It only takes one nutcase to turn something like that into a blood bath. And unless they've got a good bead on where everyone is at it only takes one civil war fetishist to make for a tragedy after hearing about another group of people in the area getting busted. Never mind the possibility of some rear end in a top hat going off the rails and shooting some place up after the fact as a statement of retaliation. Waiting's about the smartest thing they can do until the perpetrators make it clear that they're imminently about to start taking pot shots at the FBI and government representatives. Then, once media attention and all eyes are off of them and people start getting bored and going home they can snatch up the ringleaders and long time supporters and charge them. Of course knowing how things go that'll get hosed up too and the FBI will fail to charge them. Or someone on the militia end of things will have a psychotic episode and escalate things by trying to gun people down only for the FBI not to recognize the warning signs until it's too late. Archonex fucked around with this message at 02:46 on Jan 26, 2016 |
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Jan 26, 2016 02:41
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Prester John posted:There is no way to arrest them without a signifigantly portion of them becoming corpsified. They aren't going to lay down their guns and surrender, they will shoot first and blame the Federal government. Will this ever change? If yes, wait a bit and then arrest them If the answer is no, then who gives a gently caress? You can't just decide to make a class of people immune to the law because they 'refuse' to be arrested with guns.
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Jan 26, 2016 02:43
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Prester John posted:There is no way to arrest them without a signifigantly portion of them becoming corpsified. They aren't going to lay down their guns and surrender, they will shoot first and blame the Federal government. I'm sorry, PJ, but you aren't Nostradamus, and this exact situation being directly caused by leaving the Bundy's alone last time is proof that ignoring them is just going to cause them to escalate. You aren't reducing anything, you're just delaying it and possibly for the worse.
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Jan 26, 2016 02:43
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I am a diagnosed schizophrenic and I have been very open about that in various threads over the years. I am currently stable and on medication, and have been so for a few years now. I am trying to contribute to this thread like any regular poster, could we please not have a derail about my personal mental health.
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Jan 26, 2016 02:43
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Its concerning to me that Oregon apparently doesn't have the laws that WA does, in that deliberately attempting to intimidate government worked is a crime.
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Jan 26, 2016 02:44
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Da Mott Man posted:Just because someone doesn't kowtow the threads group think, they should get out? Glad the quest for ideological purity works on both sides. No, being an rear end in a top hat and mocking someone's mental illness is why they should get out. You should probably gently caress off too.
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Jan 26, 2016 02:47
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Who What Now posted:I'm sorry, PJ, but you aren't Nostradamus, and this exact situation being directly caused by leaving the Bundy's alone last time is proof that ignoring them is just going to cause them to escalate. You aren't reducing anything, you're just delaying it and possibly for the worse. I would argue that a situation like this was bound to happen given the current level of radicalization in the right wing, and though the events at the the Bundy Ranch contributed to to the current siege, they were not a sole cause. Edit: You are quite correct that I'm not Nostradamus. I have an unusual insight into a certain subset of extremists that happens to be politically relevant at present. It is entirely possible that my analysis is completely off the mark. Prester Jane fucked around with this message at 02:52 on Jan 26, 2016 |
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Jan 26, 2016 02:48
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Everything I've seen Prester John post seems to align with what's coming out of the mouths and facebooks statuses of the militants, oath keepers, 3%ers, sovereign citizens, and so forth. If somebody else has personal experience that contradicts it, feel free to share.
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Jan 26, 2016 02:48
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Archonex posted:I think people are overlooking just how complicated it would be to deal with them by force. The ringleaders carry guns the entire time and love using their kids as body shields when they're home. The moment there's a hint of arrest they will start firing. The idea that there's some olly olly oxen free land where these guys won't shoot is dumb as gently caress. They've been shown that as long as they carry guns they're safe. Their sovereign citizen poo poo has literally proven to work in their eyes. Archonex posted:Of course knowing how things go that'll get hosed up too and the FBI will fail to charge them. Or someone on the militia end of things will have a psychotic episode and try to gun people down, only for the FBI not to recognize the warning signs until it's too late. Short of not enforcing the law at all there will be blood. Even if it's not enforced (Bundy standoff 1.0) there will probably be blood.
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Jan 26, 2016 02:48
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Who What Now posted:No, being an rear end in a top hat and mocking someone's mental illness is why they should get out. You should probably gently caress off too. I think I'll stay, thanks. I neither mocked anyone nor was I an rear end in a top hat. I also don't think he was actually mocking her either. As she said, she has been up front with the issues she has. But I agree this is enough of a derail. Back to watching the FBI do nothing to a bunch of criminals.
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Jan 26, 2016 02:52
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PJ's fine. He's got a richer fanfic for what the fbi is up to and I think its out there, but he made some fine contributions towards explaining the fbi non response from his own perspective. Just because someone wants to talk to him on his own terms or agrees doesn't mean everyone here suddenly elected him super sheriff of the something awful county resource center. I especially don't understand that view of things considering how and who he is getting questioned by. My stance is well known and I just got done respectfully telling him his views on the LV shooters sounded lovely. Take it to helldump. Intel&Sebastian fucked around with this message at 02:55 on Jan 26, 2016 |
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Jan 26, 2016 02:52
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Prester John posted:Look at it this way, if you go charging in and mow the seditionists down, then Malheur will become holy ground soaked in the blood of Patriots and the residents of Burns will be blamed for not supporting the militia enough. Burns would become a very popular destination for right wingers looking to go on shooting rampages and there would be random mass shootings every so often for a decade. mugrim posted:You can't reduce violence with these people and assuming you can by entering their warped mental framework is a losing task. All you can really do is try to scare the non-crazies from joining in the first place and having this poo poo normalized. Now lest you think "it'll never stop, that always ends up creating more terrorists", ISIL is having a miserable time with recruitment; they're cutting salaries and upping forced conscription, because people don't find the "glorious caliphate" as attractive anymore now that the US has been bringing down the hammer for more than a year. It's not that I disagree with your ideas Prester John, I just think that we're past the "wait it out" stage, and we just need to end this one way or the other.
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Jan 26, 2016 02:52
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Prester John posted:I would argue that a situation like this was bound to happen given the current level of radicalization in the right wing, and though the events at the the Bundy Ranch contributed to to the current siege, they were not a sole cause. Considering his father isn't currently in prison over coordinating a stand off and having guns pointed at federal agents, I'm pretty sure it might have something to do with his tactic of coordinating a stand off and having guns pointed at federal agents. I agree that right wing radicals are at a boiling point, but they're always at a boiling point unless the president is one of them.
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Jan 26, 2016 02:52
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Prester John posted:I would argue that a situation like this was bound to happen given the current level of radicalization in the right wing, and though the events at the the Bundy Ranch contributed to to the current siege, they were not a sole cause. Then so to will potential "follow-ups" be bound to have happened given the potential climate. Again, at best all that's happening is the time-tables being moved forward or back. We can't allow ourselves to be held hostage by "maybes" and "what-ifs". I really do appreciate your insights into this and find them interesting, but I still disagree that we're doing anything but delay the inevitable at best and possibly allowing this to grow steadily worse as it goes on. It's better to just deal with these things as they appear rather then become paralyzed at potential future events.
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Jan 26, 2016 02:52
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mugrim posted:The ringleaders carry guns the entire time and love using their kids as body shields when they're home. The moment there's a hint of arrest they will start firing. The idea that there's some olly olly oxen free land where these guys won't shoot is dumb as gently caress. They've been shown that as long as they carry guns they're safe. Their sovereign citizen poo poo has literally proven to work in their eyes. It's working for them in the short term in that people are letting them have their tantrum. Like it or not they aren't going to live on the refuge forever. And like it or not, once they leave they're pretty much at the mercy of the federal and state government barring every one of them leaving their lives and families to roam across the land like some sort of hosed up sovcit bandit gang. Which isn't likely to happen among the majority of them, to say the least. The fact that they're effectively using their children as human shields attests to this. If the FBI wants to charge them then those people are hosed in the long term. The only way they get out of this is if they don't after this is all over. And the media attention and hub-bub will only last so long. Sooner or later people will find something new to salivate over and they're going to be in a pickle. On the other hand if the FBI assaults the place there's plenty of opportunities for things to go horribly wrong. Then we get another Waco-esque fiasco where the government takes the blame in the media narrative. Which sets us back on track for this same poo poo from some other group down the line. I mean, you said it. They've moved children in there, which is as big of a PR deterrent from forcing arrests as you can get at this stage. Archonex fucked around with this message at 02:58 on Jan 26, 2016 |
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Jan 26, 2016 02:55
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Raw Story's my new favorite source for updates. Got a writeup on this weekend's event with a lot of details I'd missed.quote:The dark heart of the show was Joaquin Mariano DeMoreta-Folch, a self-anointed “God-Grace Administrator” — in essence a judge — who bases his powers on the Magna Carta. Active in the Tea Party in Florida, DeMoreta-Folch said “common law grand juries” are now investigating Harney County officials. His statements and that from other militia sources made it sound like the county sheriff, judge, and two county commissioners will be charged with crimes and then supposedly removed from office.
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Jan 26, 2016 02:56
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Archonex posted:It's working for them in the short term in that people are letting them have their tantrum. Like it or not they aren't going to live on the refuge forever. And like it or not, once they leave they're pretty much at the mercy of the federal and state government. You mean like the last Bundy standoff? When absolutely nothing happened?
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Jan 26, 2016 02:56
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Mainstream news coverage is already off of them.
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Jan 26, 2016 02:57
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fade5 posted:So, the status quo? (I hate that I'm not even joking.) And I'll piggy back on this, I think Prestor is incredibly insightful to the mindset but at the same time I think his prescription is off. Even if Bundy and co surrendered super duper peacefully, all it takes is one "THE MEDIA LIED ABOUT MY ARREST!!! THEY USED SONIC WAVES AND FLOURIDE TO COERCE ME!" to have another crazy latch on and blow poo poo up. There is no way to ensure their crazy doesn't decide to provoke further crazy.
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Jan 26, 2016 02:59
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There's a lot more gold in that Raw Story article, actuallyquote:The grand juries are latest instance of the Bundy’s rejecting local government even as they praise local control. The Bundys believe only those who subscribe to their radical view of the U.S. Constitution should control the land. At the media event the Bundys said they want to return the 187,700 acres of land in the Malheur Refuge to the people of Harney County. In a one-on-one discussion earlier, Ryan Bundy rejected having the land go to the current county government. He said control will go to the militia’s hand-picked allies, the Harney County Committee of Safety. quote:One pair who have been regulars at the camp spoke as if the revolution has already begun, but it was hard to separate fact from fiction from fantasy from delusion. One claimed “asymmetricals” are joining up. By that he meant lone wolves radicalized over the Internet were flocking to the Bundy crusade. He said 300 to 400 militia members were bunked out in nearby towns and homes ready to strike, and local law enforcement and sheriff’s deputies in other counties were providing covert support. He also asserted there were plans to move on Bureau of Land Management holdings in 20 different counties.
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Jan 26, 2016 02:59
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Question, as it seems somewhat inevitable at this point. If/when this goes tits up and the militia gets turned into swiss cheese, how do we/the media/politicians/local authorities handle the aftermath? I mean surely the media is gonna be all over that, and people who align with the militants are gonna be mad as hell. What do we do to calm those types down and stop them from radicalizing further? Is there a way that doesn't involve just mowing down subsequent militias as they form?
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Jan 26, 2016 03:02
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Who What Now posted:You mean like the last Bundy standoff? When absolutely nothing happened? Which was pretty loving stupid, all told. Had things had been handled right then this probably wouldn't have happened. Which means that the FBI wouldn't be playing mexican standoff with a bunch of nutcases using children as shields. Hence the cynicism at the end of my first post. quote:Mainstream news coverage is already off of them. Not really. I still see a bit about them every now and then. And the moment things escalate into a firefight every major media station in the country is going to be all over it and spinning their own theories on what happened and why. Even so, given how many of these sorts i've met who refuse to watch ____ channel or listen to anything from ____ news agency for fear of it being liberally biased or whatever i'd be inclined to say that it would be more important that focus is lost on the hard right wing media end of things first. If that happens they'll probably start to lose steam and supporters on the refuge itself. Which would be a good thing since it would help avert a violent ending to the situation. It's hard for most people to be a martyr when no one is watching. Archonex fucked around with this message at 03:09 on Jan 26, 2016 |
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Jan 26, 2016 03:02
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Prester John posted:There is no way to arrest them without a signifigantly portion of them becoming corpsified. They aren't going to lay down their guns and surrender, they will shoot first and blame the Federal government. Who said the cops had to return fire? They don't have RPGs. Park some armoured vehicles for them to shoot at. Make it their choice whether they become corpses or not. If you are going to wait them out, wait them out to your rules. If they were blockaded on the outset they would be starving by now. Now it's going to take a lot longer. Nothing about is a Kobayashi Maru. It is a narrative you have spun up to ensure there is never an acceptable solution. You keep tying this down with crazy high goals and absurd restrictions playing to their insane rules. You have to enforce the rule of law. Is the United States of America a country or what?
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Jan 26, 2016 03:07
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Anchor Wanker posted:Question, as it seems somewhat inevitable at this point. If/when this goes tits up and the militia gets turned into swiss cheese, how do we/the media/politicians/local authorities handle the aftermath? I mean surely the media is gonna be all over that, and people who align with the militants are gonna be mad as hell. What do we do to calm those types down and stop them from radicalizing further? Is there a way that doesn't involve just mowing down subsequent militias as they form? It isn't necessary to "mow them down". If or when a shot is fired, most if not all of them are going to be face down in the snow with their hands on their heads before the feds even return fire. The few like Tarp Man who decide they want to die won't be enough to turn them into martyrs when most of them surrender and demonstrate that those who picked a fight were just committing suicide by cop.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:07
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Archonex posted:It's working for them in the short term in that people are letting them have their tantrum. Like it or not they aren't going to live on the refuge forever. And like it or not, once they leave they're pretty much at the mercy of the federal and state government barring every one of them leaving their lives and families to roam across the land like some sort of hosed up sovcit bandit gang. Which isn't likely to happen among the majority of them, to say the least. Mormon family cults like the radicalized Bundy Clan usually have years of food and water on hand and are begging for a siege. Archonex posted:The fact that they're effectively using their children as human shields attests to this. Not just human shields, they typically give them weapons to walk around with constantly. See: Ruby Ridge. Likewise, many would rather have their kids die fighting the feds than grow up to fall out of the church. These are real things that have been said in similar family cults. Archonex posted:If the FBI wants to charge them then those people are hosed in the long term. Cliven has been doing this poo poo for years. Nothing about this is new. Archonex posted:The only way they get out of this is if they don't after this is all over. And the media attention and hub-bub will only last so long. Sooner or later people will find something new to salivate over and they're going to be in a pickle. You have a lot of faith they won't escalate to get louder. Archonex posted:On the other hand if the FBI assaults the place there's plenty of opportunities for things to go horribly wrong. Then we get another Waco-esque fiasco where the government takes the blame in the media narrative. Which sets us back on track for this same poo poo from some other group down the line. Things are going wrong from here. If they would have put up and maintained a perimeter immediately and cut power they would have a LOT more options. Archonex posted:I mean, you said it. They've moved children in there, which is as big of a PR deterrent from forcing arrests as you can get at this stage. So what do you propose? Do you think these people are any less likely to take their own kids as hostages once they're on the road? What is your end game?
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Jan 26, 2016 03:12
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oohhboy posted:Park some armoured vehicles for them to shoot at. Yeah! Or flood the place with sleeping gas! What other obvious solutions haven't these FBI idiots thought of?
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Jan 26, 2016 03:15
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mugrim posted:What is your end game? B61
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Jan 26, 2016 03:16
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As a Millennial I posted:Yeah! Or flood the place with sleeping gas! What other obvious solutions haven't these FBI idiots thought of? Unlike sleeping gas and cutting the power I can't really see any significant downside to letting them scratch the paint of an armored vehicle.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:17
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Who What Now posted:Unlike sleeping gas and cutting the power I can't really see any significant downside to letting them scratch the paint of an armored vehicle. What's the downside of cutting power? Cost incurred for renting generators?
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Jan 26, 2016 03:18
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As a Millennial I posted:Yeah! Or flood the place with sleeping gas! What other obvious solutions haven't these FBI idiots thought of? Why bother with sleeping gas when you can use VX nerve agents? Atleast be horrifyingly funny about it if you're going to be pointlessly sarcastic.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:20
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mugrim posted:What's the downside of cutting power? Cost incurred for renting generators? Cost for other ranches/customers on the line, risk for the electrical worker to go out and do it in front of a bunch of armed paranoid nutjobs, and that it would do jack since they probably have generators on site as it stands. It inconveniences the Bundys, but the risk/reward is probably skewed towards "not worth it" - especially if they don't plan on doing anything in the short term. oohhboy posted:Why bother with sleeping gas when you can use VX nerve agents? Atleast be horrifyingly funny about it if you're going to be pointlessly sarcastic. Uh, pretty sure using chemical weapons on our own civilians (even batshit crazy ones) is still considered a Bad Thing in polite society. At least with the "Sleeping gas" (no such thing, etc) you can claim the fig leaf of "trying to be nonlethal"
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Jan 26, 2016 03:22
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mugrim posted:What's the downside of cutting power? Cost incurred for renting generators? Cutting power for all the uninvolved farms and ranches on that line.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:23
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Liberal_L33t posted:It isn't necessary to "mow them down". If or when a shot is fired, most if not all of them are going to be face down in the snow with their hands on their heads before the feds even return fire. The few like Tarp Man who decide they want to die won't be enough to turn them into martyrs when most of them surrender and demonstrate that those who picked a fight were just committing suicide by cop. I feel like a group of people foolish/insane enough to pull a stunt like this might have a few more would-be martyrs in it than we think.
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Jan 26, 2016 03:25
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