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EngineerSean posted:now just register the username Demosthenes on PredictIt and watch the dollars flow in So who gets to be Locke?
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Jan 29, 2016 06:14
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Garrand posted:So who gets to be Locke? I assume the free market will provide
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Jan 29, 2016 06:15
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Aliquid posted:I think it's really interesting that the GOP markets are much, much more heavily traded than the Dem ones. I wish I could extrapolate meaning from it. Maybe it's just the shitshow this year. If Bernie wins Iowa, the Dem nom market will start going nuts.
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Jan 29, 2016 06:33
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Arkane posted:If Bernie wins Iowa, the Dem nom market will start going nuts. If Bernie wins Iowa, the “Bernie wins presidency” market will go nuts (even more than it has already). The problem I have is that it will stay like that for a while. Even if I think he doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in Hell, people will hold on to hope till the convention.
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Jan 29, 2016 06:36
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I'm shocked that Trump's IOWA.YES is only at 63 cents. Seems like a complete steal, I'm putting $100 into it right now.
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Jan 29, 2016 06:56
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Gibberish posted:I'm shocked that Trump's IOWA.YES is only at 63 cents. Seems like a complete steal, I'm putting $100 into it right now. You should have gotten in right after he said he wasn't doing the debate, it briefly dipped to 55c 
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Jan 29, 2016 07:02
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FourLeaf posted:You should have gotten in right after he said he wasn't doing the debate, it briefly dipped to 55c That wasn't as huge a swing as it could have been. I'm in for Trump YES at .60, and it's still not bumped much higher.
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Jan 29, 2016 07:33
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Gibberish posted:I'm shocked that Trump's IOWA.YES is only at 63 cents. Seems like a complete steal, I'm putting $100 into it right now. I'd be cautious, like usual, with Trump bets. We're in totally uncharted territory with him skipping the debate. I personally expect him to win but it's not that certain.
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Jan 29, 2016 08:25
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There's also still questions about his ground game in Iowa, and how many of his supporters are first time caucus-ers.
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Jan 29, 2016 16:42
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Jesus, as I check now, Trump is up to 72 in Iowa.
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Jan 29, 2016 16:47
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I more or less broke even on the whole Trump debate thing, but my nerves are fried both betting on him or against him. I'm going in heavy for Hillary to win South Carolina. She's leading by about 30 points and its unbelievable that this is trading at 80, not 97.
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Jan 29, 2016 17:34
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I more or less broke even on the whole Trump debate thing, but my nerves are fried both betting on him or against him. I'm going in heavy for Hillary to win South Carolina. She's leading by about 30 points and its unbelievable that this is trading at 80, not 97. Yeah that's probably a good freebie, timetable sucks a bit though.
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Jan 29, 2016 19:16
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Yeah I'm basically all-in for Trump in Iowa right now. I think if I had more to put down on it I would, since it's such a sure thing he's going to win. I hope.
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Jan 29, 2016 19:31
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Hm, so it looks like the debate ratings will be lower than 18.9 million after all. Too bad. I was hoping the controversy would push it a little higher. Goodbye 23 cents.Gibberish posted:Yeah I'm basically all-in for Trump in Iowa right now. I think if I had more to put down on it I would, since it's such a sure thing he's going to win. With my serious money I'm split between Trump Iowa YES and Trump Nom YES, really hope this pays out too!
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Jan 29, 2016 19:37
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Gibberish posted:Yeah I'm basically all-in for Trump in Iowa right now. I think if I had more to put down on it I would, since it's such a sure thing he's going to win. I still have some Cruz for Iowa so I kind of hope you're you're wrong. But why don't you spread some over to NH? I got in there when it was still in the 50s but at these prices NH is not much more expensive, is a week longer and so much more of a sure thing
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Jan 29, 2016 19:51
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Something I've never understood: what's with all the comments supporting predictions? Isn't that irrational to do, if you're actually stating what you believe, since it's encouraging the market to move against your moneymaking? Or are they all saying the opposite of what they think?
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Jan 29, 2016 19:55
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Half the posts are trolls imo, but the other half are genuine. People just like talkin'. I think it's that simple.
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Jan 29, 2016 20:02
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Pretty much. While everybody's in it to make some cash not everyone wants to screw everybody else over. Some people just like the discussion
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Jan 29, 2016 20:11
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Is there a total deposit limit? I saw something like 4500 a few pages ago, not sure if that was accurate or not.Jewel Repetition posted:Something I've never understood: what's with all the comments supporting predictions? Isn't that irrational to do, if you're actually stating what you believe, since it's encouraging the market to move against your moneymaking? Or are they all saying the opposite of what they think? People get maxed out, whether by the 850, their own bankroll, or their risk tolerance....and they're trying to move the market in their direction.
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Jan 29, 2016 20:15
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Jewel Repetition posted:Something I've never understood: what's with all the comments supporting predictions? Isn't that irrational to do, if you're actually stating what you believe, since it's encouraging the market to move against your moneymaking? Or are they all saying the opposite of what they think? The comments really do impact the market, it's a little bit unnerving to see it unfold. People are very easily persuaded or frightened.
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Jan 29, 2016 20:21
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Jewel Repetition posted:Something I've never understood: what's with all the comments supporting predictions? Isn't that irrational to do, if you're actually stating what you believe, since it's encouraging the market to move against your moneymaking? Or are they all saying the opposite of what they think? Before buying in, you want to troll the comments and push the price to its heights of irrationality. After you’ve bought all the shares you want, though, it’s in your interest for the market to “correct” to what you believe to be its true value as soon as possible. So you drop hints in the comments with the goal of hastening this process. I think there’s probably more of the latter going on that the former. In the DPRK nuke market, for example, I think most of the “CNN confirms (that North Korea claims) it was an h‐bomb!” and “but boosted fission makes this a tough call” were insincere, efforts to push down the price of “NOs”. Then the comments started calling out “wow, y’all are dumbasses because that wasn’t an h‐bomb and the CTBTO won’t call it one even if it had been”, which was great because I didn’t want to hold till the end of the year.
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Jan 29, 2016 20:21
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I still have some Cruz for Iowa so I kind of hope you're you're wrong. But why don't you spread some over to NH? I got in there when it was still in the 50s but at these prices NH is not much more expensive, is a week longer and so much more of a sure thing Gonna roll the money I make from Iowa into NH plus, it's almost a sure thing that Trump wins anyways so why not
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Jan 29, 2016 20:32
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Trump to sweep the first 4 seems like a better value than Trump Iowa right now but a lot can happen in 23 days. Hillary looks solid to win Iowa based on polling direction and demos.
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Jan 29, 2016 22:38
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finally got something to show my pa to make him proud of me
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Jan 29, 2016 23:04
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i finally lost most of my initial deposits, now it's time for firm self discipline. I'm gonna abstain for a while, read the Bible, continue studying German, and reflect on how i must bet with my smarts not with my hearts I know drat well how to win at this, but my will was weak and my patience lacking Maybe I'll spend a hundred bucks to try again after tax time and build it up again I gotta say though, I started with just enough money for a night of stupid entertainment and was able to ride it for nearly a month, not bad for fun spending.
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Jan 29, 2016 23:27
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Commie NedFlanders posted:i finally lost most of my initial deposits, now it's time for firm self discipline. Ask God to forgive you for your sinful pride, then spend your next hundred bucks on an actual investment instead of wasting it on the degenerate vice of gambling.
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Jan 29, 2016 23:38
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Squalid posted:Ask God to forgive you for your sinful pride, then spend your next hundred bucks on an actual investment instead of wasting it on the degenerate vice of gambling. Actual investment is not unlike gambling Using the blessings of sound mind and keen vision to grow wealth isn't a sin, but the lust for money and thrill of winning certainly is Protip: donate a healthy portion of any winnings to charity, as an offering to God for your blessings I suggest ministries, Bernie, or independent media if you're into those type of things Commie NedFlanders has issued a correction as of 23:47 on Jan 29, 2016 |
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Jan 29, 2016 23:43
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Double post placeholder!
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Jan 29, 2016 23:48
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EngineerSean posted:finally got something to show my pa to make him proud of me hmmm ok? If Cruz wins you get $0. If Trump wins you get $16 bucks. I'm not too sure what you were trying to go for here.
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Jan 30, 2016 00:47
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watwat posted:hmmm ok? You're reading that backwards. If Cruz wins he gets $0 from that contract because he bought Cruz no, but that ignores the other rows. The column before the last one tells what his total take home will be after all the contracts in this market settle, if each respective candidate wins.
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Jan 30, 2016 01:23
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Commie NedFlanders posted:Actual investment is not unlike gambling this comment makes me sad. I hope it's a joke meanwhile, I'm way overexposed to trump in early primaries/caucuses. Is anyone holding RNOM rubio or jeb shares to cash in once the establishment lane clears up? Feels like one of those two is going to get a big surge before Super Tuesday, but I'm worried it's already priced in given how cheap kasich/christie are... Gibberish posted:Gonna roll the money I make from Iowa into NH This could be tough. in 2012 the IA caucus was called for Romney after the vote, but he had only "won" by 8 votes out of 125K cast. It was 17 days before they called it for Santorum. If it's close, it could be weeks before it pays out or prices go to 99/1 or whatever
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Jan 30, 2016 01:35
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thethreeman posted:this comment makes me sad. I hope it's a joke people like to differentiate, but investing is definitely gambling. you are betting your money/taking a risk in order to try to turn that stake into more money. obviously much less risky than betting on political races, but you're also only going to average ~7% a year in returns on your bet.
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Jan 30, 2016 02:15
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Not sure if anyone's interested, but DNOM is having a weird moment over the Hilary email news. Biden YES went all the way up to 11, and there's still a bunch of NOs available for 93 cents, at least for now. Long time until payday, and not exactly a jackpot, but if you already have NOs in the market, you might be able to pick up more.
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Jan 30, 2016 02:42
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Parakeet vs. Phone posted:Not sure if anyone's interested, but DNOM is having a weird moment over the Hilary email news.  You can buy “no” for Biden winning the general election for only slightly more.
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Jan 30, 2016 03:10
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thethreeman posted:This could be tough. in 2012 the IA caucus was called for Romney after the vote, but he had only "won" by 8 votes out of 125K cast. It was 17 days before they called it for Santorum. If it's close, it could be weeks before it pays out or prices go to 99/1 or whatever There's abso-loving-lutely no way anyone other than Trump wins in Iowa, it's not gonna even be close edit: a word Gibberish has issued a correction as of 03:23 on Jan 30, 2016 |
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Jan 30, 2016 03:18
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lol
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Jan 30, 2016 03:20
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watwat posted:hmmm ok? My risk is negative three hundred dollars (roughly), I didn't think I'd need to spell out that 1000 shares of Cruz.NO @ 45 and 1000 shares of Trump.NO @ 28 was a guaranteed huge win.
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Jan 30, 2016 04:13
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Gibberish posted:There's abso-loving-lutely no way anyone other than Trump wins in Iowa, it's not gonna even be close I watched The Big Short last weekend and it opened with a quote by Mark Twain. It was something like people don't get in trouble by not knowing something. But what ruins them is knowing an absolute truth that turns out to be wrong. So bet on Trump winning, have fun, but don't bet ALL of it on Trump, unless all of it is like $30 or something.
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Jan 30, 2016 04:20
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Well yeah of course I diversified my bonds, black friend I'm just saying its drat near 99% Trump wins going by all indicators. Even if his plane crashed and burned on the eve of the caucus, he'd still have a decent chance.
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Jan 30, 2016 04:27
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By all means bet all of it on Rand losing though, that poo poo ain't gambling
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Jan 30, 2016 04:59
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