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Cruz - massive ground operation, home turf Trump - yuge celebrity appeal, no real operation or ads, decent endorsements Rubio - loving crazy ads everywhere Trump really has to start spending his own money if he wants to win
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Feb 2, 2016 05:08
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Trump can hold Cruz and Rubio off well enough until next Tuesday by robbing a few news cycles, and a big win in NH will regain any lost momentum.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:08
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fart blood posted:So explain: I know why I hate Ted Cruz, but why do other conservatives hate Ted Cruz? Most politicians are slippery, but Cruz treats other politicians like other politicians treat their constituents. He is happy to say one thing to their face and then do something completely different later if he thinks it will bolster his image somehow. Politicians, although they treat their own constituents that way, really don't like it when they themselves are treated that way. So it's funny that Cruz says he won't make deals. I doubt there's anybody left on the hill outside the suicide caucus that would ever be willing to make a deal with him if he were willing. ErIog fucked around with this message at 05:17 on Feb 2, 2016 |
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Feb 2, 2016 05:08
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Pohl posted:Cruz could never win the popular vote I hope you're correct.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:09
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Rubio is honestly the only person I can see Hillary having trouble with so this is probably the best possible outcome for actual Republicans itt
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Feb 2, 2016 05:10
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I mean even Hector managed to burn a few Greek ships before Achilles killed him.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:10
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Hillary will literally eat Rubio alive. He's a stuttering gently caress without the good looks or gravitas of Mitt Romney (until he imploded)
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Feb 2, 2016 05:11
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Rubio has always been my pick to win the nomination, and other than Kasich is the only one who I think would have a serious shot at winning the general. Rubio's campaign has supposedly been so lazy and low effort, yet he almost took second place off the guy who has dominated the media landscape and the polls for months. Iowa was never going to be a strong state for Rubio (or originally for Trump, to be fair), so yeah almost coming second is a huge win. Cruz is obviously the preference to win the nomination because he'd destroy the party electorally. A month ago nobody expected Trump to win Iowa. He's suffering from the dashing of raised expectations now. It will be interesting to see whether this has any effect on the hype train going forwards.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:11
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uncurable mlady posted:Rubio is honestly the only person I can see Hillary having trouble with so this is probably the best possible outcome for actual Republicans itt Absolutely true, but I want to see what happens in a one-on-one race when Rubio gets pulled off script. He hasn't been challenged at all so far.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:12
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Main takeaway from tonight: the Cruz mailer worked.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:13
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Trump is down by one delegate. maybe he can make it up in the next state.....or not
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Feb 2, 2016 05:13
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Alter Ego posted:Someone has to tell Rubio that a) he didn't win, b) he didn't even come in second, and c) he got no delegates thanks to the GOP's winner-take-all strategy. Also, since he's losing NH, he's gonna have to make up like 20 points in a week if he wants this to mean anything. Iowa's not winner take all though???
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Feb 2, 2016 05:14
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Rubio's biggest problem is he appears to be fairly stupid.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:14
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uncurable mlady posted:Rubio is honestly the only person I can see Hillary having trouble with so this is probably the best possible outcome for actual Republicans itt
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Feb 2, 2016 05:15
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KaptainKrunk posted:Hillary will literally eat Rubio alive. He's a stuttering gently caress without the good looks or gravitas of Mitt Romney (until he imploded) Rubio probably wouldn't win, but he's their best shot. What he lacks in gravitas or looking like a statesman he more than makes up for with his knack for sounding very close to sincere. It's the tone that Cruz always tries to go for, but always ends up in the overly-practiced overly-polished dodgy used-car-salesman territory. Rubio can pull off that tone, and he sounds reasonable when he does it. He doesn't seem like a maniac like Trump or a soulless amoral ideologue like Cruz. It would be hilarious if Rubio became president and Hillary again got bested by a first term senator, though.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:16
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frankenfreak posted:I always hear about how Rubio has a number of skeletons in his closet, so she should get on that juicy oppo research. If I recall the Romney camp already did it because they vetted Rubio for VP
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Feb 2, 2016 05:16
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My guess is that Rand drops out on March 16, by the way. That's the day after the Kentucky caucuses he's already paid $125,000 for.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:17
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mdemone posted:Agree everywhere. I don't think this is nearly the Stumpening it's been made out to be so far. But everyone's going to go weapons-free on each other this week, so who knows how that affects things. It really isn't the great stumpening. The terrain is radically different in NH, which is full of the kinds of people who would vote Trump for all sorts of incredibly stupid and spiteful reasons, and it's not as receptive an electorate to the evangelical drivel Cruz basically lives on. That doesn't necessarily mean they won't just feed Trump into the Rubio woodchipper and turn the primary into a Cruz-Rubio shootout, but the margin is pretty big in the polling there and it's chock full of nihilist jackasses who moved there en masse just to try to commandeer their legislature but failed anyway. A close second-place finish in Iowa and an unassailable win in NH will make him the cock of the walk going into Super Tuesday.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:18
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SNAKES N CAKES posted:Main takeaway from tonight: the Cruz mailer worked. This is the thing that confuses me the most. If I had received this mailer. I would have driven many hours to vote against who ever sent me this mailer. It looks like Iowa is ok with being called a shitbag. This is America and you can be whatever you want.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:20
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Dahn posted:This is the thing that confuses me the most. If I had received this mailer. I would have driven many hours to vote against who ever sent me this mailer. What mailer now?
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Feb 2, 2016 05:21
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Well it was fun while it lasted. I had a gut feeling Feb 1st was the day that the Trump got stumped. Thank you Trump for the funniest primary in the history of American politics. Here's to 2020 and whatever crazy bullshit comes out of there.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:21
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tomapot posted:Marco Rubio drat happy about coming in 3rd place, this speech is strange. Best effort to result ratio: 0% / 3rd
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Feb 2, 2016 05:21
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Dahn posted:This is the thing that confuses me the most. If I had received this mailer. I would have driven many hours to vote against who ever sent me this mailer. It wasn't the mailer. Cruz's ground game was covered pretty well. Trump didn't bother to have a ground game because, as a creation of the media, he doesn't understand that media exposure doesn't guarantee election outcomes.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:22
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Prof. Lurker posted:Well it was fun while it lasted. I had a gut feeling Feb 1st was the day that the Trump got stumped. West for President 2020.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:23
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Prof. Lurker posted:Well it was fun while it lasted. I had a gut feeling Feb 1st was the day that the Trump got stumped. It has only begun, friend.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:23
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KaptainKrunk posted:Hillary will literally eat Rubio alive. He's a stuttering gently caress without the good looks or gravitas of Mitt Romney (until he imploded) Yeah, Rubio's not actually a good public speaker unless he has pre-memorized lines, throw him off that and he's toast (as evidenced by literally any moment when he appears startled during the debates or the Water Glass Incident).
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Feb 2, 2016 05:23
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FAUXTON posted:We've been getting Hillary Clinton the whole time, what are you on? You want to spend months following a Cruz/Hillary election? You have a higher pain tolerance than I do, I'd find a new hobby. Cruz as the nominee would take all of the joy out of following politics.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:24
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ErIog posted:It wasn't the mailer. Cruz's ground game was covered pretty well. Trump didn't bother to have a ground game because, as a creation of the media, he doesn't understand that media exposure doesn't guarantee election outcomes. You are right, the Cruz ground game did well. I am sure that is an omen that he will do well in the primary,
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Feb 2, 2016 05:25
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uncurable mlady posted:If I recall the Romney camp already did it because they vetted Rubio for VP That's what I was thinking of; that document leaked or something like that.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:25
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Cruz name dropping his website during his speech and mistakenly used the Obama phrase "yes we can".
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Feb 2, 2016 05:28
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I wonder if the "Trump effect" will become a thing. Basically, famous candidates that get people excited about the race but whose supporters ultimately don't show up as much as they should. The record turnout probably brought out a lot of soccer moms and Evangelicals that helped Rubio and Cruz do very well. The core of Trump's supporters seem like the people so beaten down by life that they can't even be bothered to come out. In any case, NH is so soon. The landscape is completely different there. Christie, Kasich, and Bush have basically lived in NH and I feel like they will absorb enough of Rubio's support to prevent him from outright winning. I wouldn't make any rash bets before the next polling cycle though.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:30
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If Trump won't say it, I will: How STUPID are the people of Iowa?! They vote for the guy in the pocket of the oil industry who wants to destroy corn ethanol as a fuel instead of Ethanol Don who loves it and wants to expand it. What happened, King Corn? Not even Branstad could stop Cruz.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:30
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The Saurus posted:If Trump won't say it, I will: They voted for the guy who knew how to run a campaign and not for the guy who managed to bankrupt his atlantic city casino multiple times.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:31
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The Saurus posted:If Trump won't say it, I will: In the Trump reign. Iowa will become a territory instead of a state.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:32
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tomapot posted:Cruz name dropping his website during his speech and mistakenly used the Obama phrase "yes we can". Probably not mistakenly. Using that phrase derisively has been a thing in some right wing media circles so he's probably trying to shift it from ironic to unironic usage.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:33
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Trump said Two Corinthians. He might as well said he liked black people.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:34
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KaptainKrunk posted:Cruz - massive ground operation, home turf It was pointless for Trump to put too many resources into Iowa. They were the state that nominated Santorum and Hucklefuck. It was Cruz's to win hopefully by a huge margin but all he did was finish a few points ahead of Trump. Cost/Benefit this is in Trump's favor. wikipedia posted:
For a joke nominee Trump did quite well and it seems that when the choice becomes him or Ted then he'll get even more support.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:34
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uncurable mlady posted:Rubio is honestly the only person I can see Hillary having trouble with so this is probably the best possible outcome for actual Republicans itt Absolutely. The rest of that clown car will get beat Goldwater style. The most unelectable by far is Ted Cruz, if he's the Republican nominee the dems can run a soup can(made in America) and win.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:36
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FAUXTON posted:They voted for the guy who knew how to run a campaign and not for the guy who managed to bankrupt his atlantic city casino multiple times. Bankruptcy is actually not a bad thing and is a great way to restructure ongoing debts to get better rates. Then again maybe you're talking from the experience of balancing your household budget.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:36
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gently caress this is awkward. Cruz is so loving weird.
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Feb 2, 2016 05:36
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