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i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

you're gonna liquidate those USPREZ shares way before you know it; i have $85 sitting in a market closing 2/25 and it's killing me





























edit: page 100 snipe don't bet on polls

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FourLeaf
Dec 2, 2011

Aliquid posted:

edit: page 100 snipe don't bet on polls

Does that mean don't bet on polling markets or don't make bets based on what polls say?

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

FourLeaf posted:

Does that mean don't bet on polling markets or don't make bets based on what polls say?

The former.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Jumped on the RIP TRUMP train with a modest no-wins investment. Let's watch the fucker squirm.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

a cop posted:

I mean it's very possible that Iowa was a fluke and Trump will continue to dominate.
TRUMP

*click*

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jrrcghCQTA

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
despite of what i've said, i'm too nervous to put all my clinton iowa yes winnings into trump nh yes. :ohdear:

StevePerry
Sep 5, 2003

don't stop believin
Maybe I bought shares in the Jeb dropout before the 2020 Iowa Caucasus. That would explain things.

Zeta Taskforce
Jun 27, 2002

UrAClassAct posted:

RIP TRUMP

RIP IN PEACE



Your Iowa bets did well, but you are going to lose a lot of money when Trump wins NH next week. His polling there has been too stable for too long, every main establishment candidate is polling over 10% and all they can do is fire on each other. He's going to win

StevePerry
Sep 5, 2003

don't stop believin
Trump!

*buys TRUMP YES*

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Zeta Taskforce posted:

Your Iowa bets did well, but you are going to lose a lot of money when Trump wins NH next week. His polling there has been too stable for too long, every main establishment candidate is polling over 10% and all they can do is fire on each other. He's going to win

I think we're going to see some big swings this week. Trump has a huge lead now, but if Rubio is +5 and Trump is -5 things will start getting tense quickly.

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

Imo trump people are going to get indignant over his iowa loss and show up to primaries in droves.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

a cop posted:

Imo trump people are going to get indignant over his iowa loss and show up to primaries in droves.

IDK usually underperforming doesn't inspire people. Beware of wishful thinking.

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

a cop posted:

Imo trump people are going to get indignant over his iowa loss and show up to primaries in droves.

It's mostly up to him and the media whether that happens, but I'm not counting on it.

EngineerSean
Feb 9, 2004

by zen death robot
is Trump.RNOM really down to 30c? I'm getting some

JosefStalinator
Oct 9, 2007

Come Tbilisi if you want to live.




Grimey Drawer

EngineerSean posted:

is Trump.RNOM really down to 30c? I'm getting some

Might be good if he ekes out a win in NH so you can drop them off before Rubio coalesces the necessary support.

IM DAY DAY IRL
Jul 11, 2003

Everything's fine.

Nothing to see here.

EngineerSean posted:

is Trump.RNOM really down to 30c? I'm getting some

I'm sitting on some NOs that I'm looking to offload so I can pick up some YES and hopefully get a gain off a win in NH but given my history with anything Trump related I'll be lamenting this shortly afterwards :shobon:

Gibberish
Sep 17, 2002

by R. Guyovich
Yeah I still think Trump easily wins NH on momentum alone but after that its a crap shoot. Next GOP debate is going to to sway a lot of the primaries.

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Glad I didn't load up on my usual round of Rand NO next to drop out!

StevePerry
Sep 5, 2003

don't stop believin

nachos posted:

Glad I didn't load up on my usual round of Rand NO next to drop out!
Huckabee beat him to the punch two days ago so according to the rules as long as Huckabee doesn't reactivate his campaign it won't resolve in a Paul YES for RPREZ.DROPOUT6. Although the news is actually impacting the price...

Arkane
Dec 19, 2006

by R. Guyovich
Yeah the shares shot up to as much as 25 I think....I of course sold at 4 cents, to try to frontrun a big order ahead of me. Derp.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

Peachstapler posted:

Huckabee beat him to the punch two days ago so according to the rules as long as Huckabee doesn't reactivate his campaign it won't resolve in a Paul YES for RPREZ.DROPOUT6. Although the news is actually impacting the price...

Yeah, nobody is reading the rules. Buy NO whenever the price reaches whatever threshold you want, I got it at 90 and that's an easy 10 cents on the dollar.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


seems like we should wait for these death knell for trump polls to come out and let his price in nh sink a bit, then scoop up a ton for cheap

StevePerry
Sep 5, 2003

don't stop believin
If you have money go to DROPOUT6 and take these peoples' money!

Arkane
Dec 19, 2006

by R. Guyovich
Mother of God:

Will Rand Paul be the next Republican candidate to drop out?
Latest Price: 40¢

edit: they're too stupid to even realize that Huckabee "No" can still be bought at 99-1 odds.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Rand is now at 99 :stare:

StevePerry
Sep 5, 2003

don't stop believin
I wish I had more liquid to steamroll this market. I just bought shares for a goddamn penny.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


so he's definitely dropping? rand yes?

Arkane
Dec 19, 2006

by R. Guyovich
loving 850 cap, man

lesson learned for the future to be patient

I love that the comments section is dead quiet. Those buying "yes" think they're really getting a steal here.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

Abel Wingnut posted:

so he's definitely dropping? rand yes?

he's dropping out but the rules for this market only allow for the first person to drop out, aka huckabee

StevePerry
Sep 5, 2003

don't stop believin
Someone has a decent NO wall up at 75 so we'll see if this lasts.

Total Confusion
Oct 9, 2004

Peachstapler posted:

Someone has a decent NO wall up at 75 so we'll see if this lasts.

So by buying RAND - NO at $0.78, I am guaranteeing myself profit?

StevePerry
Sep 5, 2003

don't stop believin

Gold and a Pager posted:

So by buying RAND - NO at $0.78, I am guaranteeing myself profit?
Or even 95 cents. ;)

PredictIt posted:

...the first Republican presidential candidate to publicly announce the suspension or termination of his or her candidacy or of his or her active campaigning for president or for the Republican nomination for president in the 2016 election, and to implement and maintain such suspension or termination for a period of at least five days without resumption of campaigning or announcing plans to resume such candidacy, shall be the individual identified in the question.
Yes there is always a chance Mike could reactivate his campaign but I think we all know that's an astronomical event.

railroad terror
Jul 2, 2007

choo choo


Well it's not much, but hey, it's profit!

StevePerry
Sep 5, 2003

don't stop believin

railroad terror posted:



Well it's not much, but hey, it's profit!
Free money? Yes please.



I had to sell Carson NO to pick up more.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler


I wish I had more money :negative:

railroad terror
Jul 2, 2007

choo choo

Peachstapler posted:

Free money? Yes please.



I had to sell Carson NO to pick up more.

Dear God that's beautiful. I wish I had seen all of this sooner. God people are stupid.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
Cruz is very likely not to win NH. In fact, he's looking past it to SC. I'm betting Cruz because I love the 10-1 odds, and I'm betting against Trump because its 3-1.

Commie NedFlanders
Mar 8, 2014

Arkane posted:

Mother of God:

Will Rand Paul be the next Republican candidate to drop out?
Latest Price: 40¢

edit: they're too stupid to even realize that Huckabee "No" can still be bought at 99-1 odds.

I thought huckabee already announced on caucus night, is there any way it doesn't resolve to huckabee YES?


Edit: oh wait nevermind I get it

Commie NedFlanders has issued a correction as of 17:06 on Feb 3, 2016

pathetic little tramp
Dec 12, 2005

by Hillary Clinton's assassins
Fallen Rib
Mother gently caress I cannot wait to move back to the east coast - drivers in california are the worst and I'm 3 hours behind easy money mornings.

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Adar
Jul 27, 2001
As much as this is making me want to fund a PredictIt account having Betfair access is so so so so very good right now.

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