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fnox posted:As said by Telesur, a media network founded by Chavez and who's president is former communication and tourism minister Andres Izarra. To Telesur's credit I'm positive some of their editorial staff don't give a drat for the PSUV.
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Feb 3, 2016 04:39
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This is from a few days ago now, but the Washington Post published an article titled "Venezuela is on the brink of complete economic collapse" that provides general overview of the country's economic situation at the start of this year. The country has a couple of debt obligations it needs to pay off this month that are worth a couple of billion, and some more further into the year for a total of approximately $9.5 billion, which is more than half the country's currency reserves. fnox posted:The National Assembly now has a Youtube channel that livestreams only the plenary sessions thus far. The link is right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ba4OcD3_wc4. Thank you for this! Looking forward to catching some hot, live legislative action!
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Feb 3, 2016 16:16
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Chuck Boone posted:This is from a few days ago now, but the Washington Post published an article titled "Venezuela is on the brink of complete economic collapse" that provides general overview of the country's economic situation at the start of this year. From what I've read, we basically would have to cease all imports in order to pay off the entirety of our debt this year given the current price of oil, so we're almost certainly going to default in the coming months. Off the top of my head I've read several times that pharmacies have at most two months worth of stock (with an scarcity level of approximately 80% for medicines, so that's non-critical stuff), the Guri hidroelectric plant is going to start croaking in two months as well if rains don't increase, and the stock of food keeps diminishing. We are so hosed. The Attorney General, Luisa Ortega Diaz actually did show up to speak in front of the National Assembly yesterday, much to my surprise. A lot of what she said was propaganda, but it wasn't antagonistic as one might expect. For example she said that approximately 17k people were murdered in Venezuela during the past year, when the real number is estimated to be around 27k. Still, she could've simply not showed up as every other government high-honcho has chosen to. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 16:50 on Feb 3, 2016 |
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Feb 3, 2016 16:48
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The was a US Senate hearing a few weeks ago on the future of oil prices and supply, and one of the economic experts they brought out (I think he was from some UN or WTO Energy group) stated there was a high likelihood of disruptions in Venezuela's oil exports due to labor or political unrest. This was solely in the context of discussing the future supply of crude, so it didn't sound like political posturing. So do you guys think this is very likely? What's going to happen if there's a default?
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Feb 3, 2016 17:31
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The Minister of Finance and the heads of the Banco Central de Venezuela and the body that oversees currency exchange (CENCOEX) were supposed to speak at the National Assembly today but they've just announced that they won't be able to make it because running away from your responsibilities is the best way to solve your problems. It's kind of crazy that Caracas only has one morgue (Bello Monte). I can't imagine what it looks like inside when you've got ~400 murders a month. Squalid posted:The was a US Senate hearing a few weeks ago on the future of oil prices and supply, and one of the economic experts they brought out (I think he was from some UN or WTO Energy group) stated there was a high likelihood of disruptions in Venezuela's oil exports due to labor or political unrest. This was solely in the context of discussing the future supply of crude, so it didn't sound like political posturing. So do you guys think this is very likely? What's going to happen if there's a default? I don't know. The fact that Maduro and the "Inflation exists only in our minds" crew are in power makes me think that they'll try to spin a default as a victory against parasitic capitalist usury and a victory for the revolution and Bolivar's legacy. Lorenzo Mendoza, the head of Polar (the largest private food producer in the country) said yesterday that the government really needed to get serious about not driving the country off the cliff, including looking at financing options from international organizations. This is completely incompatible with PSUV rhetoric, though, so it's really hard for me to see it happening. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 17:51 on Feb 3, 2016 |
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Feb 3, 2016 17:40
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Chuck Boone posted:The Minister of Finance and the heads of the Banco Central de Venezuela and the body that oversees currency exchange (CENCOEX) were supposed to speak at the National Assembly today but they've just announced that they won't be able to make it because running away from your responsibilities is the best way to solve your problems. Now's the time to leave Venezuela while you've still got the chance.
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Feb 3, 2016 18:50
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My Imaginary GF posted:Now's the time to leave Venezuela while you've still got the chance. You mean the last 6 years? Yeah, everyone is trying to.
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Feb 3, 2016 18:57
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My Imaginary GF posted:Now's the time to leave Venezuela while you've still got the chance. It's not exactly easy, and it gets harder every month. It's just far too expensive of an option for most people, due to the currency exchange controls.
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Feb 3, 2016 22:45
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I have half my family living in the United States already but I don't wanna leave! I'm in the denial state like the jews that didn't leave Germany in the 30s.
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Feb 3, 2016 22:51
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Well at least you will have some interesting stories to tell your kids later.
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Feb 3, 2016 22:59
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Labradoodle posted:From what I've read, we basically would have to cease all imports in order to pay off the entirety of our debt this year given the current price of oil, so we're almost certainly going to default in the coming months. Off the top of my head I've read several times that pharmacies have at most two months worth of stock (with an scarcity level of approximately 80% for medicines, so that's non-critical stuff), the Guri hidroelectric plant is going to start croaking in two months as well if rains don't increase, and the stock of food keeps diminishing. As someone who has been following this thread for the last few months, this is just...wow. It's apocalyptic-sounding. I think the most frustrating impression I have of the whole thing is that Maduro and his crew don't even seem to have the defense of well-intentioned bumbling on their side. Like, maybe the whole situation would be easier to accept if the Chavists had at least tried and failed to lay down groundwork for more local food and goods production, raising the bar for everyone, and trying to keep public safety high. It could be I'm lacking complete perspective, but it just seems like the Chavist governments have tried nothing of substance, nothing with earnest honesty, nothing intended to make the country's situation stable, secure, and detached from oil revenue. Just a bunch of half-baked populist programs aimed at niche interests and a lot of cronyist corruption, but nothing like "We are going to increase domestic agricultural production by x% over the next five years through (land grants, capital grants, generous loans, ecetera) whatever". Is this a correct impression, or am I buying into a particular line of discourse that may be biased or one-sided?
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Feb 3, 2016 23:47
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To be fair, the collapse of the price of oil would of ruined anything competent they were doing anyways.
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Feb 4, 2016 00:48
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Kthulhu5000 posted:It could be I'm lacking complete perspective, but it just seems like the Chavist governments have tried nothing of substance, nothing with earnest honesty, nothing intended to make the country's situation stable, secure, and detached from oil revenue. Just a bunch of half-baked populist programs aimed at niche interests and a lot of cronyist corruption, but nothing like "We are going to increase domestic agricultural production by x% over the next five years through (land grants, capital grants, generous loans, ecetera) whatever". Yes, and they've done it for so long they can get away with it. They played the long con, really, and it worked. Now they're in so deep that it's going to be almost too difficult to fix all those things they've destroyed. And we could have stopped it all long ago but the world didn't give enough of a gently caress about it. They bought it too. FrantzX posted:To be fair, the collapse of the price of oil would of ruined anything competent they were doing anyways. If we had started to make actual economic progress 17 years ago it would have not affected us at all today. I know it's wishful thinking, but it's almost hilarious to think what this country would have been like with a competent leadership. I mean, seriously, Venezuela is such a privileged country in terms of natural resources, geopolitical position and access to global markets that it's hard to see a world where it wouldn't have emerged as one of the strongest economies in the region had it been ran by anybody else. fnox fucked around with this message at 01:05 on Feb 4, 2016 |
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Feb 4, 2016 01:00
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FrantzX posted:To be fair, the collapse of the price of oil would of ruined anything competent they were doing anyways. None of the other's oil producing countries economies collapsed immediately after the price drop though.
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Feb 4, 2016 01:02
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Kthulhu5000 posted:As someone who has been following this thread for the last few months, this is just...wow. It's apocalyptic-sounding. Well, if you ask them, they'll say they tried. On paper it sure seems like it, considering there's always new government plans to restore production levels, stories about new plants being built for X, Y, or Z product and new credits being approved for every half-baked project imaginable. In action, the massive levels of corruption they fostered in order to maintain control amongst the Chavista high-rollers ate into every single initiative. Factories and farms were taken away from their owners under the guise of giving them to the workers and instead every single expropriated company was simply driven to the brink of bankruptcy because they didn't even bother to keep people on who actually knew how to handle them. PDVSA is the perfect example to shed light on the sheer level of ineptitude that has plagued the Chavista administration, production levels are down 25% since Chavez took office almost two decades ago, they drove away all our best oil technicians, our international partners are now required to foot the bill for any joint explorations, and they involved the company in the laundering of billions of dollars. All of this during the biggest oil boom in Venezuela's history.
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Feb 4, 2016 01:17
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El Hefe posted:None of the other's oil producing countries economies collapsed immediately after the price drop though. Nigeria.
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Feb 4, 2016 06:55
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My Imaginary GF posted:Nigeria. Nigeria also has Boko Haram to deal with so at least they have that excuse
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Feb 4, 2016 07:08
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El Hefe posted:Nigeria also has Boko Haram to deal with so at least they have that excuse Frankly, I'm surprised nobody's organized a sepratist group or insurgency against PSUV yet. You'd think that some border regions would want to break away and be able to use toilet paper, at least.
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Feb 4, 2016 07:12
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My Imaginary GF posted:Frankly, I'm surprised nobody's organized a sepratist group or insurgency against PSUV yet. You'd think that some border regions would want to break away and be able to use toilet paper, at least. The government has done a fantastic job at covering up for the people just how dire the economic situation is. You would think people would start noticing something's amiss when all of a sudden they no longer have access to loving aspirins or milk without going through resellers but never doubt the Venezuelan people, they are so used to getting hosed they just find ways around adversity rather than trying to avoid it from happening altogether. It's actually hard to explain just how hosed Venezuela is, actually. Even for people who are aware that there is a crisis, it's hard to embrace the depths of it from the inside.
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Feb 4, 2016 07:38
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The problems of just assuming oil wealth will fix everything have been known for decades: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_disease and the root guard against it, unsurprisingly, is to have a stable democracy instead of all-powerful autocrats climbing over each other to loot the oil dollars.
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Feb 4, 2016 14:48
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Chuck Boone posted:
Lasso is part of the Ecuadorian opposition Guacamayo fucked around with this message at 21:49 on Feb 4, 2016 |
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Feb 4, 2016 21:39
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Today is February 4, which makes it the 24th anniversary of the failed 1992 coup d'etat against the government of Carlos Andres Perez by a then-unknown army officer named Hugo Chavez. The coup catapulted Chavez to the national spotlight, and arguably paved the way for his electoral win in the 1998 presidential elections. 1992 saw to attempted coups: the one Chavez headed personally on February 4 which ended with his arrest, and another on November 27 which was launched by Chavez sympathizers in the air force. The November 27 coup saw rebel aircraft bombing targets in Caracas. You can watch raw video from the November 27 coup here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zs7nGqW1QIY The death toll for the two coups is hard to calculate for sure, but most estimates place the dead between the 150-300 mark. The PSUV celebrates February 4 as the "true" start of the Bolivarian Revolution, and do not consider it to be a coup attempt. Kthulhu5000 posted:It could be I'm lacking complete perspective, but it just seems like the Chavist governments have tried nothing of substance, nothing with earnest honesty, nothing intended to make the country's situation stable, secure, and detached from oil revenue. Just a bunch of half-baked populist programs aimed at niche interests and a lot of cronyist corruption, but nothing like "We are going to increase domestic agricultural production by x% over the next five years through (land grants, capital grants, generous loans, ecetera) whatever". I think you can find lots of good evidence to support your impression by being critical about what the PSUV argue the root causes of the crisis are, namely the "economic war". Notice that for a term that gets thrown around on a daily basis, there's no clear definition of what it is, what it looks like and how exactly it's affecting the economy. Maduro et al. will talk in vague anecdotes about how "they" are hoarding products, or manipulating currency, or sabotaging production, but that's as far as they'll get in quantifying the issue. You would think that a phenomenon that is supposedly ubiquitous and powerful enough to dismantle the country's economy would have a clear definition, and that there would be indisputable, concrete evidence that it does in fact exist. Maduro's ability to form strings of words that carry no substantive meaning is impressive. This is some of what he said earlier today at the event commemorating the February 4 failed coup that Chavez launched: quote:Things haven't been easy for us. These people [the opposition] have done it all. It is true that they hit us with a false coup on December 6, but I'm sure that the people are recovering from this coup and are ready for a victory. It's all either meaningless dribble or hot air. If this is the man running the country, how can there be any doubt about what the fundamental causes of the crisis are?
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Feb 4, 2016 22:16
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I think the only way out of this is watching PSUV begin to use starvation as a tool to achieve political ends. Unfortunately, I get the feeling that when Venezuela collapses, America will see a wave of migrants just as Europe is seeing one from Syria.
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Feb 5, 2016 01:23
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Most of my friends have already left the country and not only to the US but to Chile, Australia, Japan, Switzerland and Canada, it's sad because they were all professionals and people who could've helped this country but it is what it is.
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Feb 5, 2016 01:36
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And Maduro's response to young professional people massively leaving the country is "good, you don't like all the crime and poverty? then leave!" that's our president, he sure knows the way out of this mess.
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Feb 5, 2016 01:41
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They're foolish enough to make a special in VTV saying how most of the people emigrating are blonde, white middle class men. They're so deluded as to push the agenda that the people who are leaving the country are the immigrants.
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Feb 5, 2016 04:25
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Good read on what is happening in Venezuela: http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21690098-country-brink-social-explosion-only-negotiated-transition-can?frsc=dg%7Ca
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Feb 9, 2016 04:43
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720% predicted inflation rate this year  I'm spending all of my money on food these days, it's insanely expensive, I have no idea what people earning minimum wage are eating, going to the store just to buy some bread, ham and cheese to have for dinner can easily cost you Bs. 2500 which is about a quarter of what people earn in a month.
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Feb 9, 2016 05:03
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El Hefe posted:720% predicted inflation rate this year There is no hope for Venezuela so long as PSUV is allowed to dominate government. Rally your friends, family, and acquiaintanced to and take action action PSUV before you die in the street of hunger.
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Feb 9, 2016 05:09
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My Imaginary GF posted:I AM LITERALLY RETARDED.
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Feb 9, 2016 05:47
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My Imaginary GF posted:Rally your friends, family, and acquiaintanced to... ...Get out of the country! edit: on other news, yesterday made 5 years since I left Venezuela. I celebrated by eating arepas and drinking Polar, while remembering my time there. I've got four different sets of friends that are moving to Madrid this year, all of them staying at my place for a month to try and find work/a room they can rent. Two of them are gay couples of someone with a European nationality and someone without, looking to get married (here, obviously, since Venezuela hasn't legalized gay marriage) so they can both stay, while the others have no easy access to residency and are probably going to live as illegal aliens for a long while. It's pretty hosed up that they have to leave their careers and family behind in order to live as a third rate citizen somewhere else, but it's miles better than staying in Venezuela. Anyway, stay safe Venegoons. Hugoon Chavez fucked around with this message at 09:08 on Feb 9, 2016 |
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Feb 9, 2016 09:01
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The Ecoanalitica economic firm is putting the 2016 inflation rate at 296% if the government takes drastic measures to curb it. Carlos Alvarez is an economist with the firm, and he explained:quote:That’s our estimate based on some measures being taken, including devaluing [the bolivar] and putting into effect an increase in gasoline prices. If these things don’t happen then inflation could be much higher. That same article has testimony from some Caracas residents that is similar to what El Hefe has posted regarding buying food. One of the testimonies comes from a woman named Nancy Bustamante who works as a dry cleaner. She said: quote:You work all week and when you get your pay cheque, it buys you practically nothing. The only way to buy cheaper food is to lining up for long hours at supermarkets, but then you don’t have time to do that because you have to work. Our hands are tied. If you buy [items] from someone on the street, they charge you whatever they want. The price discrepancies between what's sold at subsidized prices in legitimate establishment and what people sell on the street is absolutely insane. The choice is between lining up for hours and hours to maybe get a chance to buy something, or pay crazy premiums on the street. Here are some price differences between the government-set price of subsidized goods and what they sell for on the streets:
As El Hefe said, you can blow an entire month's salary on just three or four meals. Economics isn't my strong point, but I remember reading a piece last year from an economist in the US who was arguing that the inflation rate for 2015 wouldn't be there ~250% most people were calling for, but something closer to the 1000% mark, as the IMF estimate of 720% is. The gift of the paper (which I unfortunately don't have handy) is that there are different ways to calculate inflation, and depending with which parameters you start off with, you can end up with different results, not to say that any would be "wrong" per se. The situation is made more complicated in the Venezuelan case because the Banco Central de Venezuela no longer publishes economic data, forcing economists to read between the lines for meaningful numbers. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 17:43 on Feb 9, 2016 |
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Feb 9, 2016 16:43
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Hugoon Chavez posted:I've got four different sets of friends that are moving to Madrid this year, all of them staying at my place for a month to try and find work/a room they can rent. Two of them are gay couples of someone with a European nationality and someone without, looking to get married (here, obviously, since Venezuela hasn't legalized gay marriage) so they can both stay, while the others have no easy access to residency and are probably going to live as illegal aliens for a long while. Hey, I have a couple of Venezuelan friends who are moving to Madrid to get married this year too, small world! Chuck Boone posted:[*] Corn flour (1 kg): Subsidized price: Bs. 19 - Street price: Bs. 400 These prices are pretty up to date, except coffee which now goes for Bs 2000 per kg at least in the places where I've found it. I either have to go to the street sellers, call my bachaquera friend, or try a local bakery which sells it in clear plastic bags paid in cash under the table, it's like some sort of orwellian drug deal.
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Feb 9, 2016 17:41
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I'm considering Sweden since the UCV doesn't seem to be able to get its poo poo sorted soon and I want to complete at least an undergraduate degree. I have to do it this year though I wasn't expecting the entire country to go into a death spiral this quickly. I mean, seriously, this Carnival Monday and Tuesday have been the saddest loving things I've seen in the longest time. If there is one thing that is universally true about Venezuelans is that they will NOT give up an opportunity to take a vacation, no matter how hosed they may be financially, they'd rather get even deeper in debt than miss a vacation. This is the first time I've seen so many people still at home, no kids throwing eggs and water balloons (mainly due to a severe lack of either of those things), no idiots driving slowly in caravans down the Boquerón tunnel. It wasn't like this last year. I think it's about time people realized there isn't one positive scenario remaining for this country, that involves Maduro still being president.
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Feb 9, 2016 20:30
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I just read that Capriles said that tourism in Miranda state has dropped by about 40% from last year, and he compared the holidays to a normal weekend. Also, the head of the tourism agency in Nueva Sparta said that tourist travel to Margarita Island was 50-60% down from last year. Another sign of trouble: last week, Minister of Energy Luis Motta Dominguez said that starting tomorrow, shopping malls would have to generate and run on their own electricity Monday to Friday from 1:00-3:00 PM and from 7:00-9:00 PM. The Venezuelan Chamber of Shopping Malls responded today by saying that the split proposed by Dominguez wasn't feasible, since some mall tenants - such as pharmacies and restaurants - require reliable and uninterrupted electrical power for refrigeration purposes. The organization is proposing a compromise: in order to guarantee uninterrupted service, they are willing to shorten operating hours to just 3:00-7:00 PM. The change in operating hours will affect an unknown number of malls around the country, and kicks tomorrow. The Chamber said that it was also in negotiations with the government to try to restore regular service hours.
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Feb 9, 2016 22:05
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Those are millions of jobs in jeopardy. Shopping malls are incredibly important for the economic and social landscape of the country.
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Feb 9, 2016 22:27
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Godamn, malls are kind of a big deal in Venezuelan cities, not only for shopping but also for entertainment, since they are a bit more safe to walk around than anywhere on the street. Not to mention the thousands of jobs that will cease to exist if they cut their business hours in half.
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Feb 9, 2016 22:28
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There's a bunch of offices and hotels that exist within mall installations. El Recreo, Paseo Las Mercedes and Ciudad Tamanaco are like that, so it's not just commercial activity that will be affected.
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Feb 9, 2016 23:32
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Seems like it'd be a pretty great time for a tourist to visit given the currency situation. Shame about all of the murders and lawlessness.
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Feb 10, 2016 00:43
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The New York Times sent a reporter to Venezuela last month to check out the place and write about it. He's got a page up that is just a treasure trove of on-the-ground reporting from the eyes of a foreigner. The page is here, and I highly recommend that you give it a look. Arkane posted:Seems like it'd be a pretty great time for a tourist to visit given the currency situation. It's a shame that I can't find it now, but a few weeks ago I saw a video on YouTube of a tourist (I think he was British) talking about his trip to Venezuela and how cheap everything was. We were talking about how, realistically, the minimum monthly salary (Bs. 9,649) can only afford to buy you a handful of meals, nevermind every other expense that you might accumulate over the course of a month. At the current black market rate, Bs. 9,649 is approximately $9.50. The items people are struggling to afford cost just cents in US dollars.
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Feb 10, 2016 15:46
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