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Snipe alert: unless there's news or insider info I haven't seen, Rubio nom is a little undervalued right now, believe it or not: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/438/Will-Marco-Rubio-win-the-2016-Republican-presidential-nomination#data
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Feb 8, 2016 13:56
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I think it's probably undervalued but I also think he's likely to drop more before the primary. I also think there's a chance he won't recover at all and Trump will actually pull off the nomination lmao
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Feb 8, 2016 14:01
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Flavahbeast posted:I think it's probably undervalued but I also think he's likely to drop more before the primary. I also think there's a chance he won't recover at all and Trump will actually pull off the nomination lmao I think it's going to go up a little bit from the UMASS poll where he's second, and peak before the primary. But yeah it could stay depressed if he doesn't come in second.
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Feb 8, 2016 14:04
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Yeah I bought those Rubio shares at the wrong time, now I have a big glaring negative every time I login 
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Feb 8, 2016 14:06
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I agree that the market overreacted to his debate performance, but I also don’t think he’s going to win the nomination, or even that he has a 30¢ chance of winning the nomination. I’d hate to make a bet on his numbers going up in the medium term. I’d feel dumb if I ended up being wrong about the rebound, because I do after all think that Rubio is ultimately a loser. If he doesn’t have a good showing in NH, I think it’s all downhill.
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Feb 8, 2016 14:08
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Platystemon posted:I agree that the market overreacted to his debate performance, but I also don’t think he’s going to win the nomination, or even that he has a 30¢ chance of winning the nomination. If you think his YES is going to be going up in the short term then waiting until it peaks and buying NO instead has the same effect and is playing the side you think is smarter anyways.
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Feb 8, 2016 14:47
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Necc0 posted:If you think his YES is going to be going up in the short term then waiting until it peaks and buying NO instead has the same effect and is playing the side you think is smarter anyways. For the most part, but it’s a question of when the payout comes. The rebound, if it happens, will be swift, and the decline will not. Rubot mode won’t spook the market a second time if he’s apparently weathered it once. You can see why I might be tempted. I don’t think the debate performance will hurt him all that much in NH, percentage‐wise, but it’s always been a close race and it wouldn’t take much to drop him multiple places. Anything could cause such a drop, it doesn’t have to be a reaction to the debate. He could have been destined for fourth place even before the debate, and if he places fourth, YES isn’t going up.
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Feb 8, 2016 15:12
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If Rubio really fucks up in NH it's going to be an amazing ride. Because if Rubio isn't the not-Trump the people coalesce behind that leaves Cruz and JEB! NH is going to be friendliest state for Christie to have a chance in, with Super Tuesday providing at best 3 more. Nobody remembers that Kaisich is even running. Doc Carson already blew his chance. Fiorina never had a chance at anything other than getting paid to yell about Clinton so the boys don't look bad. On a pure delegate basis, the most likely winner is still Rubio. Followed by Cruz then Trump. If Rubio is actually fatally wounded but refuses to suspend and he and JEB! just stay in until the Ghost of Reagan comes to them in a dream, then you're entering either Trumpmagedon or the most beautiful of possibilities: Brokered Convention. If Rubio actually reads the writing on the wall and drops out, then Cruz is probably the guy. Remembering that Rubio has positioned himself to fall into the Florida Governorship if this President thing doesn't work out, it's pretty unlikely he stays in once it's clear he's done. He gains nothing and causes that Florida Governorship to likely become a much more contested contest having angered the party. So if Rubio comes in 4th or 5th, prepare thyself. For it's time to work on getting used to saying Nominee Cruz.
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Feb 8, 2016 17:43
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I was playing around with 1k in the stock market over the last 9 months or so. I'm down 40%. Time to pull the rest out and make it all back on predictit.
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Feb 8, 2016 18:44
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a cop posted:I was playing around with 1k in the stock market over the last 9 months or so. I'm down 40%. Time to pull the rest out and make it all back on predictit. 1. never "play around" in the stock market, index funds and time are all you need 2. don't withdraw at market lows, wtf 3. you're going to lose the money in PI, too
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Feb 8, 2016 19:01
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Anyone else on the fat man dropout train?
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Feb 8, 2016 19:01
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Tbh I think PredictIt is easier to "beat" than the stock market but yeah I wouldn't play beyond recreational levels.
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Feb 8, 2016 19:03
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^^ nobody is saying 'beat' the stock market, if they are they're wrong.Vox Nihili posted:Anyone else on the fat man dropout train? That may not be a bad gamble; he might be overvalued from his debate performance. I'd buy some and dump them when results trickle in from NH showing him in fourth; there's always a danger he stays in just to clown on Rubio.
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Feb 8, 2016 19:05
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Aliquid posted:1. never "play around" in the stock market, index funds and time are all you need gently caress you I'm gonna be rich! I don't have 2 years to wait for a couple hundred bucks lol.
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Feb 8, 2016 19:05
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For a little while this morning none of the candidates was above .35 chaos reigns
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Feb 8, 2016 19:08
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Trump.SC.YES seems surprisingly low- I'm buyin' up a bunch to flip em after it surges when he wins NH.
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Feb 8, 2016 19:22
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Vox Nihili posted:Anyone else on the fat man dropout train? 
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Feb 8, 2016 19:24
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Vox Nihili posted:Anyone else on the fat man dropout train? If fat man and the mailman's son don't exceed expectations in NH they should both be out. Fiorina is in it as long as the other campaigns are paying her to say horrible things for them. Nobody knows when Doc Carson will decide naps aren't enough and turn in for a full night's rest. JEB! is somewhat of a wild card because he's just so desperate and no one likes him but he has millions and millions of dollars. Rubio only drops out if he somehow places 4th or higher. Gyges has issued a correction as of 19:42 on Feb 8, 2016 |
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Feb 8, 2016 19:40
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Rubio will hang on through Florida imo
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Feb 8, 2016 19:43
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a cop posted:Trump.SC.YES seems surprisingly low- I'm buyin' up a bunch to flip em after it surges when he wins NH. RCP has him at 16+ right now. You can go for a quick flip but knowing the Trump campaign they're going to beat the war drums from NH down to SC and maintain, if not improve, the polls lead after a victory in NH. I'm happy about watching my NH TRUMP.YES shares climb to 90 from 74, if I can see the same return on a surge in SC then even better. With the primary being held in 12 days its a relatively quick return, as well. Let's see what happens tonight.
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Feb 8, 2016 19:49
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Aliquid posted:Rubio will hang on through Florida imo He only does that if he's still plausibly limping along at that point. If he follows up a 3rd place finish with a 4th or higher finish that really makes his path hard. I don't think he's going to pick up much in South Carolina, and Nevada also seems a little iffy. If he doesn't get anything in any of those states Super Tuesday is going to be dire for him.
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Feb 8, 2016 19:50
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I have a sneaking suspicion that Rubio's game isn't to outplay Trump right now, it's to outplay the rest of the establishment field. If and when people start dropping out he'll pick up some real support from people towing the party line and could generate some momentum. Unfortunately in the long run he's going to be perpetually shouted down by the Trump megaphone at all given opportunities which makes me doubt the effectiveness of a plan like that. At the end of the day it really reduces to what is in my mind one of the most interesting elements of this entire GOP run up- how tired of the party are the party-goers? We saw evidence of this with the Tea Party/Libertarian boom- could this be the point where they fragment enough that an establishment candidate isn't on the main stage in November?
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Feb 8, 2016 19:55
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a cop posted:Trump.SC.YES seems surprisingly low- I'm buyin' up a bunch to flip em after it surges when he wins NH. I'm big on Trump winning NH. I have no objection putting money on him, but I don't think he's undervalued. I don't have any SC Republican bets, but I am more interested in Cruz at 25. It's a conservative, evangelical state and the field will be thinner by then. Carson will be more irreverent than he is now, Rubio could be anywhere by then but if he underperforms in NH, then the story of him not being ready will be amplified. Some of the governors won't be there, but all of them are more moderate than the average SC voter. I can see this as the closest thing to a 2 person race between Cruz and Trump, Cruz is just so weasily and I don't know how well Trump will perform in a less crowded field
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Feb 8, 2016 19:58
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I'm big on Trump winning NH. I have no objection putting money on him, but I don't think he's undervalued. I don't have any SC Republican bets, but I am more interested in Cruz at 25. It's a conservative, evangelical state and the field will be thinner by then. Carson will be more irreverent than he is now, Rubio could be anywhere by then but if he underperforms in NH, then the story of him not being ready will be amplified. Some of the governors won't be there, but all of them are more moderate than the average SC voter. I agree in terms of actual performance. However, I think the perception will be that he's a shoo-in after tomorrow. That's what I'm betting on anyway!
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Feb 8, 2016 20:00
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Aliquid posted:Rubio will hang on through Florida imo He only does that if he's still plausibly limping along at that point. If he follows up a 3rd place finish with a 4th or higher finish that really makes his path hard. I don't think he's going to pick up much in South Carolina, and Nevada also seems a little iffy. If he doesn't get anything in any of those states Super Tuesday is going to be dire for him. As for SC, Trump is likely to have his numbers hurt by the ever thinning field. Every person who drops out is a few percentage points added to those not named Donald still in the field. Cruz hoovers up anyone who doesn't particularly like Trump but is anti-establishment, Rubio picks up disaffected establishment votes. As long as Rubio keeps meeting or exceeding expectations he'll have the establishment vote coalesce around him. Cruz' bet is that either Trump will get pushed out somehow or, more likely, that the dissatisfaction of the base with the establishment is great enough for it to split between him and Trump without giving the nomination to the eventual establishment candidate.
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Feb 8, 2016 20:06
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The Dem NV market is loving ridiculous.
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Feb 8, 2016 20:10
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Gyges posted:He only does that if he's still plausibly limping along at that point. If he follows up a 3rd place finish with a 4th or higher finish that really makes his path hard. I don't think he's going to pick up much in South Carolina, and Nevada also seems a little iffy. If he doesn't get anything in any of those states Super Tuesday is going to be dire for him. If 3/4 is Jeb/Rubio, I agree. If 3/4 is Kasich/Rubio, Rubio can be successful in NV and FL.
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Feb 8, 2016 20:13
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These new individual dropout markets are great. Free 20% return: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/2007/Will-Carson-drop-out-by-February-12#data
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Feb 8, 2016 20:16
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It's amazing that its only 4 days from now. Carson isn't even trying in NH, he could poll 2% and it wouldn't matter. PI is perpetually thinking Carson's about to drop. Every time he announces he's going to take a nap the market panics and you'd managed to buy during each of those panics you would be rich
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Feb 8, 2016 20:22
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Concerned Citizen posted:The Dem NV market is loving ridiculous. It's only going to get crazier once Bernie wins NH
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Feb 8, 2016 20:26
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fyi if you're in Christie dropout YES, you might want to panic: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/02/08/chris_christie_even_i_place_6th_in_nh_my_flight_is_booked_for_south_carolina.html
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Feb 8, 2016 20:33
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Aliquid posted:These new individual dropout markets are great. Free 20% return: Hey thanks!
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Feb 8, 2016 20:34
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thethreeman posted:fyi if you're in Christie dropout YES, you might want to panic: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/02/08/chris_christie_even_i_place_6th_in_nh_my_flight_is_booked_for_south_carolina.html someone posted that 22 minutes ago in the "dropout by 12th" market for Christie and it's still at 78c for NO 
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Feb 8, 2016 20:35
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thethreeman posted:fyi if you're in Christie dropout YES, you might want to panic: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/02/08/chris_christie_even_i_place_6th_in_nh_my_flight_is_booked_for_south_carolina.html
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Feb 8, 2016 20:36
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Peachstapler posted:The man has no ground game there at all. He has to say that so people in NH still vote for him. If he's a couple points out of second then sure, but if there is a distinct cluster of Rubio, Bush, Cruz and Kasich all bunched up and Christie is in a group by himself or bunched with Fiorina and Carson, there will be strong pressure for him to drop out, whatever bluster he says now. He is betting everything on NH.
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Feb 8, 2016 20:52
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I'm big on Trump winning NH. I have no objection putting money on him, but I don't think he's undervalued. I don't have any SC Republican bets, but I am more interested in Cruz at 25. It's a conservative, evangelical state and the field will be thinner by then. Carson will be more irreverent than he is now, Rubio could be anywhere by then but if he underperforms in NH, then the story of him not being ready will be amplified. Some of the governors won't be there, but all of them are more moderate than the average SC voter. I like Cruz in SC. He's not even focusing on NH. He's skipping right ahead to SC, where he should play better. The Cruz infrastructure in SC is supposedly on point. Trump is overpriced in SC.
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Feb 8, 2016 22:02
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Concerned Citizen posted:The Dem NV market is loving ridiculous. Got 1000 Clinton Noes on the market. 23c --> 43c+
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Feb 8, 2016 22:07
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District Selectman posted:I like Cruz in SC. He's not even focusing on NH. He's skipping right ahead to SC, where he should play better. The Cruz infrastructure in SC is supposedly on point. Think he's overpriced now? Wait till tomorrow night 
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Feb 8, 2016 22:24
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Zeta Taskforce posted:If he's a couple points out of second then sure, but if there is a distinct cluster of Rubio, Bush, Cruz and Kasich all bunched up and Christie is in a group by himself or bunched with Fiorina and Carson, there will be strong pressure for him to drop out, whatever bluster he says now. He is betting everything on NH.
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Feb 8, 2016 22:25
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the Christie Dropout 2/12 NO market is still going down and IDGI
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Feb 8, 2016 23:00
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