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Zeta Taskforce posted:Great job on the Bernie/Hillary buys. For the Kasich lotto ticket, look into doing what I did and buy him winning the more moderate northern and mid western, ie VT, MA, and MN Super Tuesday. They spiked a lot when it looked like he might be the default establishment choice, but they are returning to more normal levels. I sold some VT for 20 cents earlier, but its down to 12. They are thinly traded so be patient. You could also buy some for him to win the nomination. It was 12 earlier today but the last trade was at 7. There is more liquidity there. I agree with this poster
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Feb 9, 2016 15:14
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are we still cool with cruz polling less than 20% on the 29th? it's far out, sure. but a lot of guys will exit before, and their votes have to go somewhere. even if some voters break for cruz, that should give him a good chance of polling above 20%, right? like, let's say trump, cruz, rubio, bush, and one more last until then. carson, christie, and fiorina are almost surely out by then. let's give baselines of trump at 30%, rubio at 20%, bush at...10%, other candidate....10%. that leaves 40% of votes going somewhere. it's not hard to imagine cruz sitting at 25% in that scenario. am i missing something that'll surely weigh cruz down?
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Feb 9, 2016 15:26
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Abel Wingnut posted:are we still cool with cruz polling less than 20% on the 29th? it's far out, sure. but a lot of guys will drop out before then, and their support has to go somewhere. even if some break for cruz, that should give him a good chance of polling above 20%, right? like, let's say trump, cruz, rubio, bush, and one more last until then. let's give baselines of trump at 30%, rubio at 20%, bush at...10%, other candidate....10%. that leaves 40% of votes going somewhere. it's not hard to imagine cruz sitting at 25% in that scenario.
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Feb 9, 2016 15:28
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All in on Trump to win this thing. As much as you can be "all in" on a site where you can liquidate at any time, of course. As much as you can liquidate at "any time" when the site can't even pretend to handle game day traffic.
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Feb 9, 2016 15:55
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Kasich 2nd Yes now over 50c...
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Feb 9, 2016 17:46
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All my money is currently tied up in Hillary NO and Trump YES on NH, but if I had anything to spare I'd start putting Bernie YES in SC. I don't think he goes much below 18% after he gets some of his NH victory momentum.
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Feb 9, 2016 17:47
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There's some arbitrage buying "No" for Trump Any Primary at 4 cents, and buying "Yes" in New Hampshire at 88 cents. Just gotta size them correctly. They should be trading at roughly half of each other.
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Feb 9, 2016 17:52
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Arkane posted:There's some arbitrage buying "No" for Trump Any Primary at 4 cents, and buying "Yes" in New Hampshire at 88 cents. Just gotta size them correctly. They should be trading at roughly half of each other. Good catch except the 10% fee on the highly unlikely any primary market resolving cripples this
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Feb 9, 2016 18:30
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Vox Nihili posted:Kasich 2nd Yes now over 50c... Wow, so Kasich no is literally double money at this point. Impressive.
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Feb 9, 2016 18:42
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I have a bunch of USPREZ16.SANDERS.NO worth a lot less than I paid for them in December. It's currently at 77c and I'm trying to decide whether to sell now. I guess it depends whether his NH win is already baked into that number, although I can't imagine a justification for it going much lower unless he wins by like 25 points.
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Feb 9, 2016 18:49
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Corrupt Politician posted:I have a bunch of USPREZ16.SANDERS.NO worth a lot less than I paid for them in December. It's currently at 77c and I'm trying to decide whether to sell now. I guess it depends whether his NH win is already baked into that number, although I can't imagine a justification for it going much lower unless he wins by like 25 points. Sanders NO Prez is my long-term 401(k) style bet. Buy in when it's cheap now and then and just hold on until it reaches 92 or so (probably shortly after Super Tuesday)
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Feb 9, 2016 18:51
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Corrupt Politician posted:I have a bunch of USPREZ16.SANDERS.NO worth a lot less than I paid for them in December. It's currently at 77c and I'm trying to decide whether to sell now. I guess it depends whether his NH win is already baked into that number, although I can't imagine a justification for it going much lower unless he wins by like 25 points. The answer to "is the outcome baked in" is almost always "no." So you could probably make more money selling afterwards as long as Bernie's margin isn't embarrassingly small.
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Feb 9, 2016 18:52
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pathetic little tramp posted:Sanders NO Prez is my long-term 401(k) style bet. Buy in when it's cheap now and then and just hold on until it reaches 92 or so (probably shortly after Super Tuesday) Yeah, the Dem nom is the good long term play. Is it just me or is it weird that Kasich.2nd place is 50c but Jeb! is like 9c, despite being more or less statistically tied?
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Feb 9, 2016 18:53
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JosefStalinator posted:Yeah, the Dem nom is the good long term play. I think it's a combination of the narrative about Kasichmentum, Jeb's impenetrable aura of failure, and the midnight votes.
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Feb 9, 2016 18:57
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 Someone is buying up ALL the Christie dropout yeses today. No has gone from 40c yesterday to about 13c just now.Looks like they might be relying on press releases from the Christie campaign that they have events scheduled in South Carolina and plan to push on.
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Feb 9, 2016 18:59
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Jewel Repetition posted:The answer to "is the outcome baked in" is almost always "no." So you could probably make more money selling afterwards as long as Bernie's margin isn't embarrassingly small. Just sold them and put the proceeds into Trump winning NH. I lost most of my original Biden.RUN profits in Iowa, and I'd rather just make a safe 10% return in a day than try to predict the media narrative for Bernie over the next few days.
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Feb 9, 2016 19:00
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Vox Nihili posted:
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Feb 9, 2016 19:06
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Peachstapler posted:WaPo sources say he asked his good pal Meg Whitman to petition major party establishment figures for $2700 donations last week. How successful was she? That's not for us to know, but it may be enough for him to put a band-aid on things after today's big NH loss. Here's to hoping we're lucky. If he gets less than 10% of the vote I really don't see why he would stick around. He's like Bush without the money--he just has no real base.
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Feb 9, 2016 19:14
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Question about MCCONNELL.RESIGN2016. If Republicans lose the senate is there a good chance McConnell would resign, Jim DeMint style, for some cushy corporate job? Or just retire before his term is over since he won't want to deal with going back to being Minority Leader? https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1793/#rules
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Feb 9, 2016 19:18
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Vox Nihili posted:If he gets less than 10% of the vote I really don't see why he would stick around. He's like Bush without the money--he just has no real base.
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Feb 9, 2016 19:19
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FYI you can make a few bucks in the margins just buying low and selling high on the New Hampshire 2nd place markets, it's pretty wacky and high-volume right now.
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Feb 9, 2016 19:36
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Corrupt Politician posted:Question about MCCONNELL.RESIGN2016. If Republicans lose the senate is there a good chance McConnell would resign, Jim DeMint style, for some cushy corporate job? Or just retire before his term is over since he won't want to deal with going back to being Minority Leader? If Democrats win the Senate somehow this year, they don't get sworn in until January of next year and the Turtle wouldn't resign for anything so petty as that. There'd have to be some crazy personal scandal to make him resign this year or next year or any year. He'd just not run again.
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Feb 9, 2016 19:39
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Vox Nihili posted:FYI you can make a few bucks in the margins just buying low and selling high on the New Hampshire 2nd place markets, it's pretty wacky and high-volume right now. This is true as whoa. If the site weren't going to collapse later, this would be an easy way to make 1000$ later on as the results pour in.
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Feb 9, 2016 19:40
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Corrupt Politician posted:Question about MCCONNELL.RESIGN2016. If Republicans lose the senate is there a good chance McConnell would resign, Jim DeMint style, for some cushy corporate job? Or just retire before his term is over since he won't want to deal with going back to being Minority Leader? McConnel won't resign over hurt feelings. This is a very safe long-term bet.
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Feb 9, 2016 19:41
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pathetic little tramp posted:Wow, so Kasich no is literally double money at this point. Impressive. No on Kasich for 2nd, hedge with cheap Kasich yes on Super Tuesday states to sell after bump if he does get 2nd
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Feb 9, 2016 20:08
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I love predictit comment sections These kind of people are why I'm up over double my initial investment on this site.
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Feb 9, 2016 20:08
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pathetic little tramp posted:I love predictit comment sections If he said the secret is counting cards I might believe him.
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Feb 9, 2016 20:10
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pathetic little tramp posted:I love predictit comment sections Remember, you're not up against the general public: you're up against other people playing the same game you are. They just happen to be very bad at it.
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Feb 9, 2016 20:12
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Ted Cruz 2nd has been very stable and trending downward. If y'all want in at .10, here's your chance.
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Feb 9, 2016 20:19
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 https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/697135982441844736
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Feb 9, 2016 20:20
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Rubio.exe narrowly missed that bullet
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Feb 9, 2016 20:22
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ah, gently caress
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Feb 9, 2016 20:25
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Commie NedFlanders posted:No on Kasich for 2nd, hedge with cheap Kasich yes on Super Tuesday states to sell after bump if he does get 2nd That's a good strategy. There are not a lot of cheap Super Tuesday shares, MN would probably be your best bet right now, but still thinly traded, not a lot available at any price. I am not brave enough to venture into the southern states, but there might still be a bump if the gets 2nd.
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Feb 9, 2016 20:53
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Workaround to create a "favorites" list so you can monitor markets that you're interested in: put in a 1 share bid at a penny.
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Feb 9, 2016 21:12
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Sanders is already getting a yooge bump in Super Tuesday states
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Feb 9, 2016 21:13
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Commie NedFlanders posted:Sanders is already getting a yooge bump in Super Tuesday states Trump has been declining in NV since yesterday, weird
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Feb 9, 2016 21:32
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Oh god I did it again I bet on Trump to win
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Feb 9, 2016 21:42
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Ok guys not PredictIt but the same difference. My sports bookie is offering Trump -580 on the NH primary tonight. So risk $58 to win $10, or risk $106 to win $20, etc.... I realize that's a heavy favorite, but it seems like a foregone conclusion looking at the polls? Tell me why I shouldn't dump my entire (~2.5k) bankroll on it to win ~$400?
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Feb 9, 2016 21:49
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The second place for Kasich market is skyrocketing. Someone in the comments said he suspected insider trading and I think everyone jumped on that boat.
pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 22:01 on Feb 9, 2016 |
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Feb 9, 2016 21:58
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Lol at insider trading on an ongoing primary.
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Feb 9, 2016 22:04
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