|
Boosted_C5 posted:Obama can EASILY get the GOP congress to confirm a SCOTUS nominee. All he has to do is nominate a liberal who ISN'T an extremist and has been on record as being AGAINST the minority decisions in Heller and McDonald. the democrats are going to fill scalia's seat and heller is going to be overturned
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:27
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 04:54 |
|
|
Peachstapler posted:Trump would have to begin pursuing third party ballot access immediately or risk not being included. He can't really decide to do that this summer, for example, because he'd be limited to becoming a write-in candidate. He's already screwed thanks to sore loser laws. His two options would be to embrace the write in option, or take over the libertarian party nomination.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:28
|
|
|
a cop posted:Were the robocalls that Trump referenced during the debate, the ones that said "Trump is dropping out, vote for Cruz!", actually a thing? yeah they were
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:30
|
|
|
Boosted_C5 posted:Obama can EASILY get the GOP congress to confirm a SCOTUS nominee. All he has to do is nominate a liberal who ISN'T an extremist and has been on record as being AGAINST the minority decisions in Heller and McDonald. I've read your posts from last night, but I'm curious. Taking away the idea that you think that Trump was positioning for a general, do you think last night hurts him or helps him in the the republican primary?
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:30
|
|
|
Schnorkles posted:I've read your posts from last night, but I'm curious. Taking away the idea that you think that Trump was positioning for a general, do you think last night hurts him or helps him in the the republican primary? I think what he (or some other Trump supporter) said was that it was going to hurt him but he had more than enough of a lead to afford it.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:31
|
|
|
Schnorkles posted:I've read your posts from last night, but I'm curious. Taking away the idea that you think that Trump was positioning for a general, do you think last night hurts him or helps him in the the republican primary? Helps IMMENSELY in the general, hurts in the primary. But not enough to cost him the primary IMO. He leads by 18 points in South Carolina. If his performance last night shaves a whopping 17 points of his margin of victory here, it was still a winning move. Let's dispel with this fiction that Donald Trump doesn't know what he's doing. He knows EXACTLY what he's doing. He is positioning both himself AND Hillary Clinton exactly where he needs to be able to absolutely bury her on foreign policy. He will be completely inoculated from attacks from Hillary's perceived position of strength - foreign policy experience. He will successfully position Clinton right next to Bush, and himself a million miles away from the tow of them. Also he's starting to set up his defense against what killed Romney - women's health. The planned parenthood argument was THE most important moment of the debate for Trump. Boosted_C5 fucked around with this message at 19:37 on Feb 14, 2016 |
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:32
|
|
|
Patter Song posted:Kasich right now has the semi-hypothetically possible hope that, because A. he's popular in Ohio and B. Ohio is winner-take-all, he could take his home state on March 15th even if he hasn't won a contest up to that point and make himself a serious player in a hypothetical down-to-the-wire delegate contest with Ohio's 66 delegates plus whatever few he scrounges up through proportionality. I think Kasich's dream scenario at this point would be to enter a contested convention with ~100-120 delegates (66 from Ohio plus proportional delegates from elsewhere) and playing kingmaker in a convention in Cleveland in his state. He'd be both host of the convention and have the balance of power. What's Kasich's endgame in a scenario like this? Of course, being a Kingmaker gives him a lot of power during the convention, but what is he seeking to gain from a brokered convention? Power within the party? Inclusion as a high-ranking Cabinet official? The nomination of an outside party? The destruction of the Tea Party? How well can Kasich corral his delegates compared to any other candidate? Does the "home turf advantage" give him a major leg-up in the event of a contested convention?
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:33
|
|
|
evilweasel posted:the democrats are going to fill scalia's seat and heller is going to be overturned I find your honesty re: using partisanship on SCOTUS to assault the Bill of Rights refreshing.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:33
|
|
|
I think a lot of it is about controlling the news cycle. Trump knows that his comments on Dubya and Planned Parenthood were inflammatory. That’s the point. Trump thinks he can defend himself on those subjects decently enough. Even if his support slips a little, that’s still preferable to facing an uncontrolled news cycle.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:38
|
|
|
A GIANT PARSNIP posted:He's already screwed thanks to sore loser laws. His two options would be to embrace the write in option, or take over the libertarian party nomination.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:38
|
|
|
Platystemon posted:I think a lot of it is about controlling the news cycle. Trump knows that his comments on Dubya and Planned Parenthood were inflammatory. That’s the point. He has done a masterful job of keeping the media mostly on the topics he wants to talk about.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:39
|
|
|
As a reminder, Trump only needs to get on the ballot in a couple states to wreck things for the Republicans. He doesn't even need to run in states adding up to 270+ electoral votes to gently caress with them, he only needs that if he cares about winning more than just spite/
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:44
|
|
|
Regardless of Trump wins, I hope the Bush family name is scarred forever
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:49
|
|
|
Brannock posted:People keep saying he spoke lovely Spanish, but others have said that it was a Cuban accent. Which is which? its hard to tell because of rubio interrupting him and the jeering crowd but it sounded kinda lovely and incoherent to me like he seems to be saying "tell it to him in spanish if you want" while i believe he wanted to say "tell it to me in spanish if you want"
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:49
|
|
|
babypolis posted:its hard to tell because of rubio interrupting him and the jeering crowd but it sounded kinda lovely and incoherent to me Best part of that moment was Trump had a huge cheshire cat grin when they started yelling out at each other.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:51
|
|
|
Rocks posted:Regardless of Trump wins, I hope the Bush family name is scarred forever That seems to be Trump's mission and he's throwing everything into it. I don't see the Bush dynasty ever restoring its prominence in our political and economic system. Deservingly so for a garbage family of would be Kennedys.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:53
|
|
|
etalian posted:Best part of that moment was Trump had a huge cheshire cat grin when they started yelling out at each other. is he the one that just lols when rubio called cruz out? it sounded like his laugh
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:53
|
|
|
babypolis posted:is he the one that just lols when rubio called cruz out? it sounded like his laugh I think it was Dr Benzo who broke out laughing when Cruz got schooled on the SC justice question.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:55
|
|
|
If the GOP screws Trump out of the nomination if he wins a majority, or even a plurality: I signed a pledge saying I would support the republican nominee, and I do. But if I wasn't so nice I would tell my supporters, who are very angry, to write my name in on the ballot on Nov 8th...but I'm not gonna do that.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:56
|
|
|
a cop posted:Were the robocalls that Trump referenced during the debate, the ones that said "Trump is dropping out, vote for Cruz!", actually a thing? Yes, and this is just a glimpse of the shenanigans and scandals that a Cruz Administration would do if it actually became a thing. Point being; gently caress Cruz, and get everyone you know to vote for Trump.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:56
|
|
|
Peachstapler posted:Pattersong knows the stats on this I think, we talked about this a couple months ago, but the sore loser laws only apply to a handful of states. But that's all you'd need is to exclude a place like Ohio and then that's all she wrote. It's absolutely unclear as to how many states take sore loser laws seriously in this sort of situation. In 2012, when Gary Johnson ran as a Libertarian after previously running as a Republican, only Michigan actually enforced its sore loser law and kept him off the ballot. However, the Secretary of State of Ohio has already pledged to keep Trump of the ballot and others might follow suit in such a case. I very much doubt Trump's doing the third party thing. In case it's not clear yet, Donald Trump's objective is to become President of the United States. I know that's hard for some people to accept, but he'd have a serious shot (less than 50-50, but still considerable) if he grabs the GOP nomination. He'd not get anything running third party and probably wouldn't win a single state. That would not be what Trump wants. The petition requirements for getting on the ballot as an indy are rough. Texas, on May 9th, requires 80,000 signatures, so if you wanted to be on that ballot, you'd probably better start collecting them right this instant. If he waited until the convention, even setting aside sore loser laws, 14 states (TX, NC, IL, IN, NM, NV, GA, DE, FL, OK, SC, MI, WA, and MO) would have already had their deadlines pass and a bunch more would be days later and impossible to get signatures for. If Trump really feels that this GOP nominating race isn't working out for him, what he needs to do is bail in mid-March (no later) and immediately file lawsuits in every state with a sore loser law that could keep him off the ballot that those laws are unconstitutional. Trump's not entering a contest in which winning is literally not an option.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 19:59
|
|
|
babypolis posted:its hard to tell because of rubio interrupting him and the jeering crowd but it sounded kinda lovely and incoherent to me Would "him" be the debate moderator here?
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 20:00
|
|
|
I actually get the feeling that the 9/11 thing isn't planned and is sort of personal to Trump. I mean, he probably does know people who died in the attacks, and the "he kept us safe!!!!" line personally irritates him. There was no percentage in that line for Trump - it won't even play all that well with voters outside New York in the general.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 20:00
|
|
|
Patter Song posted:He'd not get anything running third party and probably wouldn't win a single state. That would not be what Trump wants. I strongly disagree. he might be perfectly happy just ruining Republican chances this election year. And to do that? All he needs is to get in to a couple of states, and eat up margin where the Republican would otherwise win, tossing such states to the Democrats outright. Even if he only got on the ballot on two or three states he could render a Republican win impossible by making it impractical to have a route to 270.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 20:03
|
|
|
Trump wouldn't need to win to "win" by going third party: he would need to beat the Republican candidate. As long as he does that, it was the Republican who stole his nomination that threw the Presidency to the Democrats, not him.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 20:05
|
|
|
Trump wants to win, but failing that, I don’t think he’s above seeking vengeance. That’s a motive I respect.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 20:05
|
|
|
Brannock posted:Would "him" be the debate moderator here? i guess? it still wouldnt make any sense when compared to refering to himself which is an obvious challenge. either way he doesnt sound like a natural speaker at all. his accent is less cuban accent and more american who picked on some spanish accent
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 20:05
|
|
|
Brannock posted:Would "him" be the debate moderator here? It could be "to them", the audience, as well if the transcription posted earlier was correct. Or it could be "say it in Spanish, if you want" with an incorrect use of the imperative since "to say/tell" is irregular in the imperative mood. It's exactly the sort of mistake someone would make if they weren't fluent. PT6A fucked around with this message at 20:08 on Feb 14, 2016 |
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 20:06
|
|
|
fishmech posted:As a reminder, Donald "@BetteMidler is an extremely unattractive woman" Trump only needs to get on the ballot in a couple states to wreck things for the Republicans. He doesn't even need to run in states adding up to 270+ electoral votes to gently caress with them, he only needs that if he cares about winning more than just spite/ Yea once we enter into winner take all stuff (which I think actually starts in SC right?) his goal is gonna be just gently caress results up and try to keep results scattered enough to force a brokered convention.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 20:07
|
|
|
Platystemon posted:Trump wants to win, but failing that, I don’t think he’s above seeking vengeance. That’s a motive I respect. Yup. He's been asked about running as an independent, and he's straight up said "It's not something that I'd like to do, as it would be bad for the Republicans" going as far to name races where it's hosed them in the past. However, he's also said that he expects to be "treated fairly".
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 20:07
|
|
|
here is an article from mid October in South Carolina when he first attacked Jeb Bush over 9/11 http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/19/politics/donald-trump-september-11-south-carolina/ quote:Anderson, South Carolina (CNN) - Donald Trump's suggestion that George W. Bush bears some responsibility for the September 11 terrorist attacks didn't sit well with voters here. But it's not inspiring them to turn on Trump.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 20:10
|
|
|
[img]http://i.imgur.com/Tooll4I.jpg][/img] Jeb! That's not very nice!
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 20:12
|
|
|
mannerup posted:here is an article from mid October in South Carolina when he first attacked Jeb Bush over 9/11 It's the nature of Trump supporters in that even if he says things they don't like. They still end up having the same belief in him.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 20:13
|
|
|
Valentin posted:Apparently Rubio has decided "Cruz doesn't speak Spanish, please ignore that he spoke Iffy Spanish directly to me on the debate stage" is a fruitful line of attack. Does he think this will sink Cruz with the Republican base I don't get it
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 20:13
|
|
|
etalian posted:It's the nature of Trump supporters in that even if he says things they don't like. They still end up having the same belief in him. its the magic of trump. he is whatever you want him to be.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 20:14
|
|
|
evilweasel posted:I actually get the feeling that the 9/11 thing isn't planned and is sort of personal to Trump. I mean, he probably does know people who died in the attacks, and the "he kept us safe!!!!" line personally irritates him. There was no percentage in that line for Trump - it won't even play all that well with voters outside New York in the general. I feel the same. His attacks on Bush don't make much sense when Bush has been reduced to single-digits and there's little potential for crossover. I think the line will play well to Trump's core base, in that he's refusing to back down to party consensus, but I suspect that the debate last night will make Trump an even less acceptable candidate to mainstream Republicans.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 20:15
|
|
|
babypolis posted:its the magic of trump. he is whatever you want him to be. It's a touché once you glimpse the toupee.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 20:18
|
|
|
Phlegmish posted:Does he think this will sink Cruz with the Republican base I don't get it Makes Cruz seem fake on more things?
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 20:20
|
|
|
Hopkins FBI posted:[timg]http://i.imgur.com/Tooll4I.jpg][/timg] lol
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 20:20
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 23, 2024 04:54 |
|
|
Hopkins FBI posted:[timg]http://i.imgur.com/Tooll4I.jpg][/timg] Please twitter this at Trump or otherwise get it spread. You signed up with that as your name, right? Either way, it's one more thing to keep people talking.
|
|
#
?
Feb 14, 2016 20:22
|
|