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The cadence seems to be that RCP will drop the national polls 16-18 days after they are posted. The only time I've seen that not followed was that dry spell in late December/early January where only 3 polls made up the total average. IMO if at least 3 new polls come out, all his bad ones will roll off. I'm currently yes on Trump there due to his big win in NH and his soon-to-be (I think) win in SC. On a side note, I checked the national polls from 2012 and there was a ton of polls during February. What the hell is up with pollsters this year?
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Feb 14, 2016 22:56
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watwat posted:On a side note, I checked the national polls from 2012 and there was a ton of polls during February. What the hell is up with pollsters this year?
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Feb 14, 2016 22:59
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watwat posted:The cadence seems to be that RCP will drop the national polls 16-18 days after they are posted. The only time I've seen that not followed was that dry spell in late December/early January where only 3 polls made up the total average. IMO if at least 3 new polls come out, all his bad ones will roll off. I'm currently yes on Trump there due to his big win in NH and his soon-to-be (I think) win in SC. While generally true, RCP gonna RCP so you're betting not only on what the polls are and whether or not RCP will include them but also whether or not RCP will follow their general trend and not forget to have the intern update poo poo until 1am March 1st. As for the polls we're on a multi-year slide of polling as the demand for them by the shrinking news media wanes.
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Feb 14, 2016 23:09
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There was a story on NPR about how polling is more expensive than ever before. Mostly because of the lack of home phones.
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Feb 15, 2016 00:52
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Someone dumped a couple thousand dollars into the 2nd place SC market a little while ago and I was first on the scene  
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Feb 15, 2016 03:37
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Come to think of it, I've seen two huge spikes like that and they were both pro-Rubio 
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Feb 15, 2016 03:49
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Flavahbeast posted:Come to think of it, I've seen two huge spikes like that and they were both pro-Rubio Yeah, there wasn't any new polling or anything, was there? Not that I'm complaining about my Rubio 2nd shares going up up up (so I can sell them)
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Feb 15, 2016 03:55
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if the cap is $850, then how did someone dump a couple thousand dollars?OrangeKing posted:Yeah, there wasn't any new polling or anything, was there? i'm guessing there was a lot of new polling, it just wasn't released
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Feb 15, 2016 05:03
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It might have just been 850, it was definitely a bunch though: Rubio YES went from ~.25 to ~.45 with at least 1200 outstanding shares at .45 (those are the NO's I bought)
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Feb 15, 2016 05:05
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Arkane posted:if the cap is $850, then how did someone dump a couple thousand dollars? If the price was .25 and then went up to .33 that's thousands of shares that you can buy for $850. If the market didn't have that many bids already placed you could easily do a huge swing of 2-3 thousand shares off just a single buy at those prices.
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Feb 15, 2016 05:12
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You could theoretically make a $1700 swing if you sell YES and buy NO or vice versa.
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Feb 15, 2016 05:17
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How is it that the likelihood of Clinton personally winning the presidency, and the next president being a woman, consistently have more than a penny difference? Are there that many people who think Carly Fiorina has a 5% chance?
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Feb 15, 2016 22:42
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evilweasel posted:How is it that the likelihood of Clinton personally winning the presidency, and the next president being a woman, consistently have more than a penny difference? Are there that many people who think Carly Fiorina has a 5% chance? It's just market inefficiency at this point.
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Feb 15, 2016 22:46
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evilweasel posted:How is it that the likelihood of Clinton personally winning the presidency, and the next president being a woman, consistently have more than a penny difference? Are there that many people who think Carly Fiorina has a 5% chance? Gender reassignment?
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Feb 15, 2016 22:46
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evilweasel posted:How is it that the likelihood of Clinton personally winning the presidency, and the next president being a woman, consistently have more than a penny difference? Are there that many people who think Carly Fiorina has a 5% chance? Trump's convinced them that JEB! isn't a man.
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Feb 15, 2016 22:50
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I'm wading into the Nevada Dem market with 100 Hillary YES at 58 cents. My guess is with Scalia's passing, voters will go with electability over idealism. Plus Harry Reid is going to pull whatever strings he has to engineer the outcome he wants. Polling has been so thin that I'm not going in bigger than this.Gyges posted:Trump's convinced them that JEB! isn't a man. Even then, Jeb or Jebra doesn't have a 1% chance of winning
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Feb 15, 2016 23:41
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While W is speaking, Jebs stock is shooting down for 3rd place and shooting up for 2nd place for SC.
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Feb 16, 2016 00:31
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Prorat posted:While W is speaking, Jebs stock is shooting down for 3rd place and shooting up for 2nd place for SC. W has never given a speech that good on anything before. Jeb for third would be a strech but 2nd? It's getting easier and easier to make money from this thing.
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Feb 16, 2016 00:47
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I think of this week is successful for Bush then he will get 3rd with Rubio 4th. Trump/Cruz 1 And 2 obviously.
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Feb 16, 2016 00:52
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If Bush comes in 3rd or higher, Rubio is hosed and can at best place 4th. It's not like JEB! is going to be pulling any Trump voters.
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Feb 16, 2016 01:07
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New poll out showing Cruz and Rubio in a dead heat. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html I'm getting really nervous about that 50 bucks I put on Cruz for 2nd...
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Feb 16, 2016 01:15
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Made about 25 bucks by buying Jeb 2nd shares at 9 cents and selling at 13. Realizing now I probably could have made even more by being a little less conservative. Oh well, profit is profit.
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Feb 16, 2016 01:21
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Right now someone is selling their 850 dollars worth of 3rd Place Trump for 2 cents after buying it for 1.
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Feb 16, 2016 01:44
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UnoriginalMind posted:New poll out showing Cruz and Rubio in a dead heat. If that poll is right, JEB! is just as in it for 2nd as either of them.
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Feb 16, 2016 01:58
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Gyges posted:If that poll is right, JEB! is just as in it for 2nd as either of them. Man. I am really bad at this.
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Feb 16, 2016 02:02
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UnoriginalMind posted:New poll out showing Cruz and Rubio in a dead heat. Looks like I made the right decision unloading those 1200 Cruz.NO shares when they were 72+
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Feb 16, 2016 02:05
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I can't really find any real information on the reliability of SC House GOP polls though. In their Friday poll they had Trump 34.5% Cruz 15.5% Bush 13% Rubio 12.5% Kasich 8.5% Carson 5% Und. 11% But those are the only two polls I'm seeing on their twitter going back to October. So they polled on 2/11-2/12 and they polled on 2/14 and released the results separately. The only thing I found doing a quick search on them that wasn't just repeating their results is some right wing blog called fitsnews.com. Gyges has issued a correction as of 02:28 on Feb 16, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 02:25
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Hmm. Bill Kristol's mystery poll from last week really was bullshit.
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Feb 16, 2016 02:30
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New SC PPP poll just dropped.quote:Behind Trump, who has 35 percent support in the poll, U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas are tied for second place — at 18 percent each, according to a Public Policy Polling survey released exclusively Monday to The State. http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article60547281.html edit: whoops already posted sorry :V
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Feb 16, 2016 02:42
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Oh snap I forgot I had a $90 buy order for CRUZ.2ND.NO @ 65c. Oh well, I'm glad it went through, aint no way Rubio's beating Cruz in SC. I don't care WHAT those polls say! Looks like 65c might have been the bottom too But even if not I'm probably holding 'till the end.
Trash Trick has issued a correction as of 02:47 on Feb 16, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 02:45
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When all else fails, trust our lord and savior RCP http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-4151.html (PS that 26-24 Trump-Cruz poll was an internal Super PAC poll, so most likely it's skewed bullshit)
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Feb 16, 2016 10:12
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NBC good enough for RCP? http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/dec/15/donald-trump-hits-new-high-38-percent-national-pol/ Hrmm...perhaps his numbers will decline after he wins South Carolina and Nevada... The Real Paddy has issued a correction as of 12:21 on Feb 16, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 12:14
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The Real Paddy posted:NBC good enough for RCP? This story is from December 2015.
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Feb 16, 2016 12:31
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Arkane posted:This story is from December 2015. Huh whoops, well I saw it on Morning Joe, should have checked the link better. I'll try to find the correct information online, but it's real as gently caress.
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Feb 16, 2016 12:35
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For your pleasure: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-maintains-national-lead-heading-south-carolina-n519091
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Feb 16, 2016 12:37
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Yeah, that is an online poll and is not used in RCP (or at least, has not been so far).
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Feb 16, 2016 12:41
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Arkane posted:Yeah, that is an online poll and is not used in RCP (or at least, has not been so far). Thanks, good to know. I checked and didn't see it added, not really sure what the turnaround on that is...still...it does trend right along with that 44 (very probably) outlier. Just thought I'd keep information current. [Edit] And that poll has a nice MoE: +/- 2.1%. The Real Paddy has issued a correction as of 14:14 on Feb 16, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 12:43
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trump winning MA is a no-brainer, especially when he takes SC, right?
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Feb 16, 2016 14:36
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Abel Wingnut posted:trump winning MA is a no-brainer, especially when he takes SC, right?
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Feb 16, 2016 14:55
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He will win MA.
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Feb 16, 2016 16:33
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