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Yes, I'm sure no one ever considered stealing money from a bank, or driving off with a whole ATM, before oil prices got low...  File footage: Albertans. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBb2dDWEFSA
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Feb 16, 2016 16:43
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https://twitter.com/cbcalerts/status/699629750650802176 Lol, gently caress this stupid country.
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Feb 16, 2016 17:27
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This is a high class crack cocaine operation
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Feb 16, 2016 17:29
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ZShakespeare posted:This is a high class crack cocaine operation "No more cheap crackhouses for me!" "...may I pre-warm sir's crackpipe?"
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Feb 16, 2016 17:43
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Housing prices up 17% over last year... My god.
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Feb 16, 2016 17:48
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my morning jackass posted:Housing prices up 17% over last year... My god. Like I said, even the most insane housing bull couldn't have predicted this outcome when this thread was started 3 years ago. If the 'crash' ever does manifest... at best it'll roll us back to the already-inflated prices of three years ago.
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Feb 16, 2016 18:05
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Lexicon posted:Like I said, even the most insane housing bull couldn't have predicted this outcome when this thread was started 3 years ago. If the 'crash' ever does manifest... at best it'll roll us back to the already-inflated prices of three years ago. How can you honestly put a figure on the bottom of the RE market? I'm curious how you are coming to the conclusion that we will only roll back to 2012/2013 prices.
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Feb 16, 2016 18:09
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jm20 posted:How can you honestly put a figure on the bottom of the RE market? I'm curious how you are coming to the conclusion that we will only roll back to 2012/2013 prices. Yeah, I'm thinking more 2005 prices ,minimum.
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Feb 16, 2016 18:12
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What was the average house price in Vancouver in 2005, out of curiosity? I don't think it'll get that low, people here are too dumb. Maybe 2008.
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Feb 16, 2016 18:57
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jm20 posted:How can you honestly put a figure on the bottom of the RE market? I'm curious how you are coming to the conclusion that we will only roll back to 2012/2013 prices. I'm not "putting a figure" on it, but it is a probability distribution that I'm attempting to see the shape of. I find the 2012/2013 pricing scenario shockingly unlikely, never mind anything less. This is housing we're talking about. The Feds will [even further] annihilate the currency if that's what's necessary to keep nominal housing values intact/rising.
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Feb 16, 2016 19:00
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My totally worthless housing bubble prediction: House prices will finally hit some insane peak and then begin to drop, but not more than a few years worth of losses. At this point people go go buying crazy thinking "Now's the perfect time to buy! This is Vancouver, just like oil prices they can only go up in the long run!" and that will feed a little recovery and spawn a million articles about how the correction is over and we're back to the new normal. Prices will go up a tiny bit or stagnant, then some minor shock to the economy will send them down again. Woah prices are down, perfect time to buy! This is VANCOUVER after all, very desirable place to invest. This cycle will go on for a long time averaging out stagnant prices or a small drop that doesn't keep pace with inflation. "Vancouver prices always go up" and "Vancouver is an extremely good place to buy" are just too deeply culturally ingrained in generations of idiot true-believer buyers. Also during this time the city/region will get desperate for a solution to the pattern. Do we have too many barriers to rich chinese?? Have we taxed our developers to death? We need a new mayor! Someone needs to DO SOMETHING. The norm is 7% gains per year, this is intrinsic to the city of Vancouver, anything less must mean some sort of sabotage, corruption, or mismanagement.
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Feb 16, 2016 19:32
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If we actually enforced realtor/developer and possibly lenders compliance with FINTRAC, and shared the details with the non residents country of origin we wouldn't have a bubble this high.
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Feb 16, 2016 19:43
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jm20 posted:If we actually enforced realtor/developer and possibly lenders compliance with FINTRAC, and shared the details with the non residents country of origin we wouldn't have a bubble this high. SHUT UP YOU RACIST
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Feb 16, 2016 19:44
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Lexicon posted:I'm not "putting a figure" on it, but it is a probability distribution that I'm attempting to see the shape of. I find the 2012/2013 pricing scenario shockingly unlikely, never mind anything less. This is housing we're talking about. The Feds will [even further] annihilate the currency if that's what's necessary to keep nominal housing values intact/rising. Maybe all levels of government will have an about-face, and come to believe that affordable and sane housing is more important than property values.
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Feb 16, 2016 19:50
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leftist heap posted:Maybe all levels of government will have an about-face, and come to believe that affordable and sane housing is more important than property values. People are feeding and sheltering them selves based entirely around property values. It's like people putting all their money into investing into food companies then complaining the price of food is too high, no one has enough to eat, our kids are starving, but don't you loving do anything to lower my food equity otherwise I won't have any money to buy food when I retire! By turning housing into an investment, the primary retirement investment for most people, we've created a situation that's impossible to solve without a bunch of ruined boomers or some sort of FULL COMMUNISM government housing system.
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Feb 16, 2016 19:56
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Ridiculously low interest rates shouldn't last forever though, and income is stagnant. Something has to give. Edit: Also, underpaid and underemployed millenials will have a rough time buying real estate at all time high prices... Freezer fucked around with this message at 20:01 on Feb 16, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 19:56
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leftist heap posted:Maybe all levels of government will have an about-face, and come to believe that affordable and sane housing is more important than property values. Good luck with that one.
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Feb 16, 2016 19:59
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not as long as the only loving way you can fund anything (like your post politics life and kickbacks) is through property tax.
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Feb 16, 2016 20:05
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The banks in polar bear land have started using a max loan cap of 5xAnnual income (500%) which seems to have slowed down the market despite an (again) lowered central interest rate to -0.5%. Around 10% of new mortgages are being denied. Of course, the banks are spinning the effectiveness of this measure to the maximum in media to avoid having the government come in and meddle in their mortgage fracking operation. Could get interesting if we've reached the peak of available loans for the average Sven. Maybe all it would take to tip over is a rate hike for some external reason (the resource and metal sector is feeling the burn from Chinapocalypse but that might take awhile to play out and affect the greater economy). Or things will just start right up again when the weather/daylight hours get better. Pimpmust fucked around with this message at 20:23 on Feb 16, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 20:17
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Pimpmust posted:The banks in polar bear land have started using a max loan cap of 5xAnnual income (500%) which seems to have slowed down the market despite an (again) lowered central interest rate to -0.5%. Around 10% of new mortgages are being denied. Of course, the banks are spinning the effectiveness of this measure to the maximum in media to avoid having the government come in and meddle in their mortgage fracking operation. Only 10% of mortgage applications are for > 5x annual income (presumably gross)? Some kind of financial responsibility fairy tale there.
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Feb 16, 2016 20:21
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What kind of amortization are they handing out that 5x annual income is affordable? My mortgage is 3x my annual income and it gets rough some months as-is.
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Feb 16, 2016 20:27
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Edit: wrong, nevermind.
Freezer fucked around with this message at 21:08 on Feb 16, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 20:28
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Freezer posted:Edit: Also, underpaid and underemployed millenials will have a rough time buying real estate at all time high prices... Since when has anyone ever given a poo poo about millenials? Especially when the Chinese have no problem with buying real estate at all time high prices...
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Feb 16, 2016 20:29
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McGavin posted:Since when has anyone ever given a poo poo about millenials? Especially when the Chinese have no problem with buying real estate at all time high prices... It's because millennials are lazy, back in 1950 I bought a 2 story house on a janitors salary, but kids just all want it handed to them these days.
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Feb 16, 2016 20:31
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Freezer posted:For every 1% that average salary increased, you could see a corresponding 5% jump in house prices? sure, sounds really responsible and sustainable... That's not what that says at all? The loan you could get would increase in size by 1%. You make $100,000, they loan you $500,000. You make $101,000, they loan you $505,000. 1% larger loan.
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Feb 16, 2016 20:38
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DariusLikewise posted:It's because millennials are lazy, back in 1950 I bought a 2 story house on a janitors salary, but kids just all want it handed to them these days. Exactly! Lazy, entitled little shits. Now excuse me, I need to cash my CPP and OAS cheques.
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Feb 16, 2016 20:38
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quote:De svenska hushållens aggregerade skuldkvot (Dti, Debt-to-income), det vill säga deras totala skulder i relation till deras totala disponibla inkomster The amount of money a household has left to spend and save after income tax is deducted. For example, let's say your household's annual income is SEK 1 000 000 of wages, and you pay an income tax of 35% (it had in reality been considerably higher). In that case, your disposable income is SEK 650 000 per year. quote:Enligt Finansinspektionen har nästan 30 procent av de svenska bolånetagarna en skuldkvot på 450 procent eller mer av inkomsten quote:Högst skuldkvot har i dag hushåll i Stockholm, där den i genomsnitt var 482 procent förra året.  Y is DTI (skuldkvot), X is % of their homes value that they owe (belåningsgrad). The total % of people that fall into each DTI bracket can be seen under "Totalt". I like the portion with 700%+, and this is from 2014. http://www.riksbank.se/Documents/Rapporter/Ekonomiska_kommentarer/2015/rap_ek_kom_nr8_150602_sve.pdf Pimpmust fucked around with this message at 20:44 on Feb 16, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 20:41
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the us collapse happened because people's mortgages started resetting to rates home owners couldn't afford. that isn't going to happen here until interest rates spike, and even then it'll take years before people start feeling the pain when they have to reup their mortgage it's going to be a long, slow decline when foreign money dries up. vancouver might just become a town where it's totally normal to spend 60% of your net income on housing depending on how willing the banks are to underwrite
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Feb 16, 2016 20:42
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the talent deficit posted:the us collapse happened because people's mortgages started resetting to rates home owners couldn't afford. that isn't going to happen here until interest rates spike, and even then it'll take years before people start feeling the pain when they have to reup their mortgage 60% of net to rent for professionals
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Feb 16, 2016 20:45
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Freezer posted:For every 1% that average salary increased, you could see a corresponding 5% jump in house prices? sure, sounds really responsible and sustainable... What? A 1% increase in salary would raise house prices by 1%.
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Feb 16, 2016 20:46
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Subjunctive posted:What? A 1% increase in salary would raise house prices by 1%. Yeah, I read that wrong. oops.
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Feb 16, 2016 21:07
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jm20 posted:60% of net to rent for professionals yeah, poors have to live in surrey obviously
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Feb 16, 2016 22:07
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http://www.prestigeproperty.co.uk/property/171559/Farmhouse-Lot-46-France/quote:5 bedroom Farmhouse in Cahors, Midi-Pyrenees for sale with 1300000m2 of land gently caress it i'm moving to France, and I don't even like golf.
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Feb 17, 2016 00:16
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i spent half a year in cahors and that place is overpriced
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Feb 17, 2016 00:19
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SpannerX posted:Yeah, I'm thinking more 2005 prices ,minimum. How do you do those analyses? I'm new to real-estate prognostication.
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Feb 17, 2016 02:05
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Well generally you look at some chart of the historical price of whatever you want to predict and extend it into the future in a way that gives you the result you want and is aesthetically pleasing.
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Feb 17, 2016 02:08
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YeOldeButchere posted:Well generally you look at some chart of the historical price of whatever you want to predict and extend it into the future in a way that gives you the result you want and is aesthetically pleasing. poo poo, if I could do that I'd run a mutual fund.
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Feb 17, 2016 02:12
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Subjunctive posted:How do you do those analyses? I'm new to real-estate prognostication. The linear regression equation is this: Predicted Real Estate Price = B0 + B1.Wind.Direction + B2.Horse.poo poo + B3.Mother.In.Law + B4.Nice.Lady.at.the.Bank + B5.Tsur.Sommerville.Grants.From.Developers + B6.Priced.Out.Forever + B7.HAM Remember to make Horse.poo poo a numerical variable in KGs, and HAM is in Canadian dollars not Renminbi.
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Feb 17, 2016 02:14
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So what's a good way to short the real estate market, for those who are confident of utter collapse in the near term?
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Feb 17, 2016 02:21
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Subjunctive posted:So what's a good way to short the real estate market, for those who are confident of utter collapse in the near term? http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/104696/bet-against-real-estate-with-these-short-reit-etfs I've no idea how the reverse/short ETFs work but that's one way. Edit: Nah these are all US focused. Less Fat Luke fucked around with this message at 02:45 on Feb 17, 2016 |
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Feb 17, 2016 02:42
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