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How's the constitutional supermajority thing looking like for the assembly at the moment? Did the supermajority of current sitting members concept carry the day in general opinion or was something else sorted out?
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Feb 16, 2016 22:34
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As far I know, the matter is still before the Supreme Court. I've found that there's a tendency in Venezuelan politics for huge issues to get swept away as more shocking things happen on a weekly basis. I believe that the opposition does not need a super-majority to call for a referendum to the Constitution. The would need one to call a constituent assembly, which would then be tasked with drafting a completely new constitution (which is what happened in 1999). The National Assembly is currently debating the amnesty law. Tune in here if you want to watch people yell at each other in Spanish: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9BjgZkLlJM
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Feb 16, 2016 22:56
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Venezuelan fiscal policy question: What are the currency requirements for Venezuelan creditors? Are they forced to accept purchasing oil in bolivars are the official exchange rate? Does Venezuela only pay its foreign creditors in bolivars exchangable at the official exchange rate? What I'm wondering is, at what price does it become more profitable to not purchase Venezuelan oil due to Maduro's hosed up economic policies.
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Feb 16, 2016 23:21
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Chuck Boone posted:The National Assembly is currently debating the amnesty law. Tune in here if you want to watch people yell at each other in Spanish: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9BjgZkLlJM Diosdado and Allup are closing the debate one after the other, right now. I'm getting some popcorn for the beatdown Allup's gonna lay down. Update: Diosdado just clearly said "You can do whatever you want here, we're not going to execute any Amnesty Law" and then went on to say there wouldn't be any pardons for murderers and drug dealers, the irony. Godamn, Allup is doing some catharsis on the stand. He's called some government deputies ignorants to their face and called them out on the groups amongst the military and the PSUV which are fighting each other for the power. The Amnesty Law just got approved as well, so now it's a question of how long until the Supreme Court conjures up some bogus reason to block it. Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 00:13 on Feb 17, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 23:45
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It's like Diosdado says, they can pass as many laws as they want but they can't actually enforce any of them. This is such a sad country, complete failure of a state.
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Feb 17, 2016 02:09
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Labradoodle posted:Diosdado and Allup are closing the debate one after the other, right now. I'm getting some popcorn for the beatdown Allup's gonna lay down. You know, I'm beginning to think the only hope for Venezuela is a Republican President. The current one is too unwilling to intervene in foreign affairs to support the cause of democratic institutional development, whereas a GOP administration would recognize PSUV for what it is.
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Feb 17, 2016 03:13
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My Imaginary GF posted:You know, I'm beginning to think the only hope for Venezuela is a Republican President. The current one is too unwilling to intervene in foreign affairs to support the cause of democratic institutional development, whereas a GOP administration would recognize PSUV for what it is. Every single party currently in Venezuela is at the very least, more economically leftist than the Democrats. There is, I believe just one neoliberal party, "Vente Venezuela", and it's a very minor faction in the MUD, despite what the government may say. I personally don't believe that a neoliberal economic policy would aid Venezuela at this time, considering just how poor it has become, not all regulations need to go, and not all can be undone right away. The whole currency control deal needs to be slowly and surgically removed to avoid throwing the economy into further chaos. A new Venezuelan government would have to recognize the noticeable deficiencies that the country has structurally, in terms of both infrastructure and institutions, and realize that we can no longer trust the government with all the things it currently has. In other news, there are strong rumors that the infighting within PSUV is starting to really pressure Maduro into quitting. It's further amplified by the fact that Aristobulo Isturiz is the current vice-president, and he is arguably one of the few PSUVistas with some idea on how to run a government (it's no wonder either, he was originally from AD, Henry Ramos Allup's party). I wouldn't be surprised if Maduro is no longer president by March. Bonus, here's Ramos Allup's ending speech from today's ordinary session (with the Pope in the picture-in-picture for some reason): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvpIUvVYtB0
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Feb 17, 2016 06:41
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fnox posted:Every single party currently in Venezuela is at the very least, more economically leftist than the Democrats. There is, I believe just one neoliberal party, "Vente Venezuela", and it's a very minor faction in the MUD, despite what the government may say. I personally don't believe that a neoliberal economic policy would aid Venezuela at this time, considering just how poor it has become, not all regulations need to go, and not all can be undone right away. The whole currency control deal needs to be slowly and surgically removed to avoid throwing the economy into further chaos. A new Venezuelan government would have to recognize the noticeable deficiencies that the country has structurally, in terms of both infrastructure and institutions, and realize that we can no longer trust the government with all the things it currently has. It's not the 90's any more, we don't need any free trade with Venezuela. What would be of concern to policymakers is the eventual collapse of your government and the civil war which follows, should your nation continue down its current path. As has been seen from Syria, civil wars start mass migrations waves, and the last thing America needs is millions of refugees fleeing across our southern border from your failed state. That's why I'd trust the GOP to intervene in Venezuela more than I do Obama, because if there's one thing Republicans care about more than foreign economic policy friendly to US interests, its enforcing immigration policy.
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Feb 17, 2016 07:22
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fnox posted:Bonus, here's Ramos Allup's ending speech from today's ordinary session (with the Pope in the picture-in-picture for some reason): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvpIUvVYtB0 Yeah, watching HRA own fools left, right, and center is fun to watch, so definitely keep posting those.
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Feb 17, 2016 07:27
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My Imaginary GF posted:As has been seen from Syria, civil wars start mass migrations waves, and the last thing America needs is millions of refugees fleeing across our southern border from your failed state. 
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Feb 17, 2016 09:20
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My Imaginary GF posted:That's why I'd trust the GOP to intervene in Venezuela more than I do Obama, because if there's one thing Republicans care about more than foreign economic policy friendly to US interests, its enforcing immigration policy. Of course, the GOP would intervene in such a fashion as to make the situation much worse. The Lone Badger fucked around with this message at 10:13 on Feb 17, 2016 |
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Feb 17, 2016 10:07
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fnox posted:In other news, there are strong rumors that the infighting within PSUV is starting to really pressure Maduro into quitting. It's further amplified by the fact that Aristobulo Isturiz is the current vice-president, and he is arguably one of the few PSUVistas with some idea of how to run a government (it's no wonder either, he was originally from AD, Henry Ramos Allup's party). I wouldn't be surprised if Maduro is no longer president by March. For foreign readers, it's worth noting that Maduro's presidency has been plagued with rumors of his resignation ever since the 2014 protests, however, we seem to be in the middle of a different scenario now. Several opposition figures who were previously opposed to forcing Maduro to quit such as Capriles and Falcon are now publicly calling for the activation of legal measures to get his rear end out of the chair, in fact, Primero Justicia members (Capriles' party) have leaked that he's going to be spearheading a recall referendum against Maduro and it will be announced later today (this is most likely his bid to stay relevant, since he still has presidential aspirations but Leopoldo would be the surefire candidate). A recall referendum would be the hardest way to get Maduro out due to ridiculous measures imposed by the electoral council. Allup has also stated he thinks the best way to get out of this mess is a constitutional amendment which would reduce the presidential term from six to four years, triggering presidential elections this December. This is less desirable simply due to the fact that at this rate, there's not going to be a country left by that date if the government continues their trend of doing absolutely nothing except blocking opposition proposals. However, look forward to the Assemnbly launching this initiative as well. Adding to that, we've got several groups within the government itself that seem to be negotiating to get Maduro out as well. Take a look at last week , for example, the weirdo who didn't believe in inflation was kicked out after it got leaked that the government was planning to seize Polar, which would be akin to setting fire to the only massive foodstuff company left operating in the country. Plus the government stealthily created an oil and mineral military company (CAMIMPEG) whose board answers directly to the Minister of Defense  To put it simply, everyone seems to agree that Maduro needs to get the gently caress out and they're in the process of throwing everything including the bathroom sink at him. If he makes it to a recall referendum or to the end of the year I'll be surprised (which is not to say that I expect the PSUV to shape up in his absence). Labradoodle fucked around with this message at 15:02 on Feb 17, 2016 |
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Feb 17, 2016 15:00
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My Imaginary GF posted:It's not the 90's any more, we don't need any free trade with Venezuela. What would be of concern to policymakers is the eventual collapse of your government and the civil war which follows, should your nation continue down its current path. As has been seen from Syria, civil wars start mass migrations waves, and the last thing America needs is millions of refugees fleeing across our southern border from your failed state. There won't be a civil war, both sides want the same thing. At this point I'm certain that American intervention will ruin the current course of things. Also, I don't know if there is a concise reason why, but...Can't the opposition do both a recall referendum and a constitutional amendment? That would imply both getting rid of Maduro the quickest possible way, and getting rid of magistrates in the TSJ.
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Feb 17, 2016 17:02
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fnox posted:Also, I don't know if there is a concise reason why, but...Can't the opposition do both a recall referendum and a constitutional amendment? That would imply both getting rid of Maduro the quickest possible way, and getting rid of magistrates in the TSJ. I'm not entirely sure about this, but I seem to remember reading somewhere that a recall referendum could place the current VP, Aristobulo Isturiz, in charge. The recall provision is in Article 72, and it's worded vaguely enough that I think the TSJ could easily just squeeze Isturiz in if it wanted to. EDIT: Also, the requirements for a recall are pretty steep:
Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 17:17 on Feb 17, 2016 |
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Feb 17, 2016 17:10
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Maduro has been talking all afternoon, and he's just announced that gasoline prices are going up. 95 octane will cost Bs. 6 per liter, and 91 octane (what most people pump) will cost Bs. 1 per liter. To give you some context: my cousin has a 2010 Toyota Corolla. He used to pay Bs. 5 to fill up his tank with the 95 octane gas. Now it'll probably cost him about Bs. 500. In other words: it's a significant increase.
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Feb 17, 2016 23:21
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Chuck Boone posted:Maduro has been talking all afternoon, and he's just announced that gasoline prices are going up. 95 octane will cost Bs. 6 per liter, and 91 octane (what most people pump) will cost Bs. 1 per liter. Still not significant enough, and still implemented far, far later than it should have been. Do your politicians not understand the concept of "signaling"? Before any significant policy shifts are made in America, we spend one to twelve news cycles debating will-they won't-they. It seems in Venezuela, nobody knows what the hell is going on until after it's done.
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Feb 17, 2016 23:26
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Most people actually pump 95 even if they have old piece of poo poo cars from the 1970s... my car takes about 50L if its close to empty so that'd be about Bs. 300 which is more in line with realistic prices. Now what they need to do is increase the prices of regulated foods and we might not starve to death by the end of the year.
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Feb 17, 2016 23:27
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My Imaginary GF posted:It seems in Venezuela, nobody knows what the hell is going on It will all start to make sense if you just keep that in mind.
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Feb 17, 2016 23:28
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My Imaginary GF posted:Still not significant enough, and still implemented far, far later than it should have been. Yeah the situation in Venezuela is chaotic and drastic measures should be taken and fast. But lol just going "tomorrow gas will gently caress You dollars" is terrible.
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Feb 17, 2016 23:28
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One thing is that now gas station workers are going to be targeted even more than before, this is a country where you can get killed for Bs. 10000 or $10 easily after all.
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Feb 17, 2016 23:40
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Chuck Boone posted:Maduro has been talking all afternoon, and he's just announced that gasoline prices are going up. 95 octane will cost Bs. 6 per liter, and 91 octane (what most people pump) will cost Bs. 1 per liter. Isn't that basically from "nothing" to "almost nothing"? I'm guessing that's probably an order of magnitude less than US prices (which are very low by global standards), even at official exchange rates. Also 83 L is over 20 gallons, do Venezuelan small cars have truck fuel tanks or something? Woolie Wool fucked around with this message at 23:45 on Feb 17, 2016 |
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Feb 17, 2016 23:42
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Venezuela's gasoline prices went from being the cheapest in the world...To being the cheapest in the world. This was a more than 6000% increase in price, btw, and it's still this cheap. There isn't even a proper infrastructure at most gas pumps in the country to charge for the drat gas, everyone just currently pays some guy at the gas pump, and usually they charged so little most just gave their change as a tip. Nothing that has been announced is sufficient to cover up even 10% of the current fiscal deficit. The mere fact that the "preferential" exchange rate isn't going away just shows how dishonest these announcements actually are, in terms of actual economic policy. fnox fucked around with this message at 23:50 on Feb 17, 2016 |
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Feb 17, 2016 23:44
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It's a step in the right direction at least, they need to increase the price of harina pan because Bs 18 or whatever the official price is at its ridiculous and that's why you can't find it anywhere.
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Feb 17, 2016 23:51
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Maduro also just announced an overhaul of the currency exchange system. I think he's said that the three-tiered system will become two-tiered. The first tier will trade at Bs. 10 and will cover "fundamental" imports, like food and medicine. The old price for the first tier was Bs. 6.30 The second tier, if I heard correctly, will stay free-floating (at least on paper), which is what is today called the SIMADI rate. In other words, it looks like he's collapsed two tiers into one and set that at Bs. 10, and left the third untouched. Woolie Wool posted:Isn't that basically from "nothing" to "almost nothing"? I'm guessing that's probably an order of magnitude less than US prices (which are very low by global standards), even at official exchange rates. I'm not sure about this, actually - I apologize. Gasoline was so cheap that he didn't even know how much one liter cost. I think a lot of Venezuelan people right now are trying to figure out how much they're going to have to pay. A liter of gas cost less than a cent before.
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Feb 17, 2016 23:51
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Chuck Boone posted:
It was about the same price as the octane but in cents at least for 95oct, I filled up about 30L yesterday and it was almost Bs. 3, I just gave the guy a Bs 10 bill because what the hell am I gonna do with Bs. 7 in change.
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Feb 17, 2016 23:56
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it isn't a step in the right direction, we're still moving steadfastly towards economic chaos. This adjustment is nowhere near enough.
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Feb 17, 2016 23:59
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fnox posted:it isn't a step in the right direction, we're still moving steadfastly towards economic chaos. This adjustment is nowhere near enough. if they start charging real world prices they'd be riots dude imagine paying Bs. 50000 for a tank of gas...
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Feb 18, 2016 00:01
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Are people in Venezuela starting organized barter markets (ie more formal than the usual floating black market stalls) and/or issuing scrip/creditos like Argentina did during its crises? I understand that foreign currency is probably the preferred alternate currency, but I imagine that may not always be available or affordable to the poorest or unconnected. Perversely, a hyperinflating currency can be both nearly worthless and really hard to get enough of (because its worthless and so you need a bushelful of cash to buy anything) so you've got to find SOME way to exchange goods and services. So fuckit, let's issue our OWN worthless money! (Insert bitcoin joke here) If this is happening, what's the government response? Crackdowns against the 'enemies of the revolution'? A blind eye? Ministers quietly renting booths and hawking deodorant during their lunch breaks?
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Feb 18, 2016 00:10
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El Hefe posted:if they start charging real world prices they'd be riots dude Maduro needs to grow a spine and realize he's that hosed economically. The economic distortion needs to stop, this was a golden opportunity to get rid of the preferential exchange rate and they chose not to do it, that's more money bleeding out of the nearly exsanguinated country. Even at the Bs.200 exchange rate, gas is still worth less than a cent per litre, it makes no sense.
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Feb 18, 2016 00:10
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Thing is nobody has the money to pay real world prices
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Feb 18, 2016 00:29
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Then we all need to stop living in this god drat fantasy world.
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Feb 18, 2016 00:33
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Neophyte posted:Are people in Venezuela starting organized barter markets (ie more formal than the usual floating black market stalls) and/or issuing scrip/creditos like Argentina did during its crises? I understand that foreign currency is probably the preferred alternate currency, but I imagine that may not always be available or affordable to the poorest or unconnected. The only thing that might have some parallel to this, although not directly, is the cestaticket system. The cestaticket is essentially a kind of food stamp that gets added to some people's minimum monthly salary. When the government talks about the minimum monthly salary, they'll often add the monthly cestaticket amount to the discussion as a way to beef up the number. All of that happens at the official government level, though. Also, you wouldn't buy corn flour at the black market with US dollars. If you did have some US dollars, you'd likely want to either save them because they'll likely go for more later, or sell them to buy stuff. The current black market exchange rate is around $1/Bs. 1,000, and the minimum monthly wage is Bs. 11,000. fnox posted:Then we all need to stop living in this god drat fantasy world. The gas price increase is probably going to be meaningless not only because of how little the price has been increased to, but also because whatever extra money comes into the government through the price increase will be squandered/stolen. What happened to all the money that came in to the country during the years that oil was selling for $80+ a barrel? The PSUV precised over years of unprecedented oil prices, and the country is heading into bankruptcy this year. All of that money was stolen, wasted, or spent without any thought to the future. Like El Hefe said, the PSUV was like a homeless person who suddenly wins millions of dollars in the lottery, only to find themselves living in the streets again just a few years later. The gas price increase might help out, but it needs to be administered by a relatively efficient and incorrupt government. The PSUV is neither of those things.
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Feb 18, 2016 01:38
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El Hefe posted:It was about the same price as the octane but in cents at least for 95oct, I filled up about 30L yesterday and it was almost Bs. 3, I just gave the guy a Bs 10 bill because what the hell am I gonna do with Bs. 7 in change. The fact that you even still have 10 Bs bills is cracking me up right now.
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Feb 18, 2016 20:14
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beer_war posted:The fact that you even still have 10 Bs bills is cracking me up right now. They were good for paying for gas! Now I'm just gonna roll them up and use them to wipe my rear end, cheaper than TP.
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Feb 18, 2016 20:21
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beer_war posted:The fact that you even still have 10 Bs bills is cracking me up right now. How about the fact the biggest bill is 100 and buying, for instance, a dinner at McDonalds for four people, would run you around 4000 BsF?
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Feb 18, 2016 21:27
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Hugoon Chavez posted:How about the fact the biggest bill is 100 and buying, for instance, a dinner at McDonalds for four people, would run you around 4000 BsF? I love going to the bank to withdraw Bs 10000 and the cashier giving me a bunch of Bs 5 bills, just love it.
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Feb 18, 2016 21:36
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Hugoon Chavez posted:How about the fact the biggest bill is 100 and buying, for instance, a dinner at McDonalds for four people, would run you around 4000 BsF? Sounds kinda like South Korea - the Won there is about 1300 KRW to a USD (and has been for years), but the biggest note you could get til 2009 was 10,000. And for whatever reason a lot of shops would "strongly prefer" paying in cash for large purchases. They brought out a 50,000 KRW note finally in 2009, but still no say 100,000 - and they still want you to pay for large purchases in cash.
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Feb 19, 2016 02:15
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As completely unworkable and futile as trying to run a 100% planned economy with no internal currency at all is, it is probably still not as bad as the actual situation in Venezuela.
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Feb 19, 2016 03:35
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To be honest very few places lack point of sale machines, even with our poo poo internet infrastructure, I've always paid for everything with debit cards except for a punctual couple of things: street food and gasoline. But yes, having the highest denomination bill be so low makes 0 sense and what makes even less senseis the amount of times you gotta withdraw from an ATM to get a decent amount of cash because of it. Forget a 500bsf bill we need a 1000bsf one by now. Woolie Wool posted:As completely unworkable and futile as trying to run a 100% planned economy with no internal currency at all is, it is probably still not as bad as the actual situation in Venezuela. Anybody would be able to run the economy better than what Chavez and Maduro did. I guarantee you, if we were to even elect the Portuguese bakery owner down the street from my house as president, the economy would still fare better than with Maduro. Anyone who's ever ran a business in their life would be able to not gently caress up as spectacularly as Maduro did, without any knowledge of actual macroeconomics. fnox fucked around with this message at 07:40 on Feb 19, 2016 |
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Feb 19, 2016 07:35
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What's the maximum amount of Bs. you're allowed to withdraw from an ATM? fnox posted:Anybody would be able to run the economy better than what Chavez and Maduro did. I guarantee you, if we were to even elect the Portuguese bakery owner down the street from my house as president, the economy would still fare better than with Maduro. Anyone who's ever ran a business in their life would be able to not gently caress up as spectacularly as Maduro did, without any knowledge of actual macroeconomics. Henry Ramos Allup gave a pretty fiery speech yesterday over Maduro's economic measures speech that included this gem: quote:Who could ever imagine that a country with 32 million people that over the last 16 years earned the unbelievable sum of $1.7 trillion, today finds itself with empty supermarket shelves, no medicine, the highest crime rates in the world, along with the highest inflation in the world? This anti-miracle was made possible as a consequence of demented policies implemented by a man who never should have been President of Venezuela but was, only for the misery of this country. As we've talked about before, the scarcity crisis is affecting not only food items but also medicine. This is also due to the fact that Venezuela does not have the capacity to produce the medicine that it needs, and therefore relies on imports. Last week, the head of the Venezuelan Pharmaceutical Federation, Freddy Ceballos, said that medicine scarcity levels had reached the 80% mark, and blamed the fact that the national government has outstanding debt with foreign medical suppliers totaling $6 billion and going back three years. Yesterday, Maduro met with representatives from the pharmaceutical sector to discuss the crisis. Maduro's solution: just make the medicine here, you dummies: quote:When it comes to the pharmaceutical field, we have to be able to produce all of the medicines that our people need so that we can arrive at -- with the technological capability that Venezuelan industry has - the real ability to export [medicine].
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Feb 19, 2016 16:45
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