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Come on Cruz you massive piece of poo poo...you rat gently caress...you came through in Iowa, now come through in SC. You loving rear end. gently caress YOU RUBIO!!! I'm really fired up about the democratic process!
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Feb 18, 2016 01:43
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This is a Buzzfeed article and could be totally full of poo poo. However a lot of the issues raised in it do sound like something a campaign bringing in a lot of outsiders to try and make it happen might do by accident. What do you guys think, does it seem somewhat likely that the Bernie campaign has pissed people off on the ground in Nevada? If that culinary workers thing is true and people faked their way in so they could try and campaign that some real bullshit. Definitely the type of thing eager volunteers eager to get others to feel the Bern might do without thinking it out. Or it could be some Hillary supporters with sour grapes trying to swing things.
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Feb 18, 2016 01:51
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Gyges posted:This is a Buzzfeed article and could be totally full of poo poo. However a lot of the issues raised in it do sound like something a campaign bringing in a lot of outsiders to try and make it happen might do by accident. What do you guys think, does it seem somewhat likely that the Bernie campaign has pissed people off on the ground in Nevada? If that culinary workers thing is true and people faked their way in so they could try and campaign that some real bullshit. Definitely the type of thing eager volunteers eager to get others to feel the Bern might do without thinking it out. Or it could be some Hillary supporters with sour grapes trying to swing things. Both of these things (the union pin thing and the dust-up with the student) did happen but they were both pre-Iowa. I really hadn't heard about them in a while, I thought it'd blown over. The more consequential thing might be the reaction to him siding with his Congressional candidate endorser when the Culinary union endorsed her primary opponent. Fwiw a quick skim of the reporter's Twitter makes him look very pro-Clinton. Shear Modulus has issued a correction as of 02:36 on Feb 18, 2016 |
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Feb 18, 2016 02:31
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Arkane posted:what if he loses? I'll check back in a few days.
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Feb 18, 2016 02:35
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I have no idea what will happen in SC 2nd. But Southern evangelicals have a lot more Pentecostals and prosperity gospel types among their ranks than Iowa. Trump is more competitive because Trump = rich = evidence of God's blessing. And that's why I think Cruz will struggle. He could easily place 2nd though.
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Feb 18, 2016 02:48
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Adar posted:High risk high reward: the Dem Nevada market is mispriced. Both sites have it 45/55 or slightly worse for Sanders based almost entirely on a one point poll. Hillary just added a Sunday campaign stop in LV in the middle of a NY/CA fundraising tour while Sanders has been all over the place. The events page for Hillary for an LV zip code is full of random phonebanking sites while Bernie has over a dozen genuine events. I think this is a tossup to a slight Sanders edge and am buying heavily at what I think is probably a 25% ROI. I'm taking the opposite bet, probably on a smaller scale than you though. Either way it is high risk high reward; it really is a toss up. There are 2 polls but most of the polling happened before Scalia died and the Clinton camp with the establishment is going to make the point that the supreme court proves electability in the general matters, and that Hillary is the more electable, tested candidate. I think it will be a squeaker, but Harry Reid and allies will make sure it goes the way they want. I'm going to be watching it live so if needed I can cut my losses.
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Feb 18, 2016 02:49
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Gyges posted:This is a Buzzfeed article and could be totally full of poo poo. However a lot of the issues raised in it do sound like something a campaign bringing in a lot of outsiders to try and make it happen might do by accident. What do you guys think, does it seem somewhat likely that the Bernie campaign has pissed people off on the ground in Nevada? If that culinary workers thing is true and people faked their way in so they could try and campaign that some real bullshit. Definitely the type of thing eager volunteers eager to get others to feel the Bern might do without thinking it out. Or it could be some Hillary supporters with sour grapes trying to swing things. There is nothing new in this article, it's trying to make hay of stuff from weeks ago.
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Feb 18, 2016 03:04
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Hoo man the comments in that Buzzfeed article. I thought the Bernie people on Reddit were bad; Hillary has some absolutely unhinged fans on Buzzfeed (as does Bernie).
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Feb 18, 2016 03:20
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I'm taking the opposite bet, probably on a smaller scale than you though. Either way it is high risk high reward; it really is a toss up. There are 2 polls but most of the polling happened before Scalia died and the Clinton camp with the establishment is going to make the point that the supreme court proves electability in the general matters, and that Hillary is the more electable, tested candidate. I think it will be a squeaker, but Harry Reid and allies will make sure it goes the way they want. I'm going to be watching it live so if needed I can cut my losses. I'm not sure how the Supreme Court vacancy will shake up the Democrats. Probably help out Clinton more, but Bernie's got electability arguments of his own. Clinton is the "safe" bet though. On the Republican side I have a feeling it'll help out both Cruz and Rubio. Cruz, because no matter how big a scum sucking poo poo pile you think he is, you're pretty confident he'll find someone to make Scalia look like a dope smoking hippy if given the chance to nominate. Rubio because he really is the only one in the field with an electability argument that holds up longer than a sand castle at high tide.
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Feb 18, 2016 03:29
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Cruz being on the judiciary committee could help him or hurt him. Hard to say, but I know I wouldn't want to be on that committee right now if I were running for office.
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Feb 18, 2016 03:51
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Platystemon posted:Cruz being on the judiciary committee could help him or hurt him. Hard to say, but I know I wouldn't want to be on that committee right now if I were running for office. Nah, it's a perfect place for Cruz. He's gonna burn the capital down while laughing during any hearings. It'll do nothing but help him in the primary. If he makes it the general it'll be a mark against him, but he's Ted Cruz so it'll hardly be noticeable among all the other horrible things.
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Feb 18, 2016 03:57
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I think the real question is whether Cruz will force a government shutdown over the scotus nominee.
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Feb 18, 2016 03:58
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Yeah, can we get a market for that?! I'd love to see Cruz die on that hill.
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Feb 18, 2016 04:06
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Shear Modulus posted:I think the real question is whether Cruz will force a government shutdown over the scotus nominee. how could he even do that?
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Feb 18, 2016 04:17
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Abel Wingnut posted:how could he even do that? Off the top of my head, I don't know. But if there was a man to figure out how to do that, it would be Ted Cruz.
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Feb 18, 2016 04:21
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Abel Wingnut posted:how could he even do that? Government Shutdowns are Ted Cruz' specialty. Plus he'll probably gently caress it up and accidentally get 12 appellate court nominees and the Supreme Court nominee through to a vote in the process.
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Feb 18, 2016 04:21
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Abel Wingnut posted:how could he even do that? Tie it to the budget, same as everything else in government.
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Feb 18, 2016 04:22
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Gyges posted:Government Shutdowns are Ted Cruz' specialty. Plus he'll probably gently caress it up and accidentally get 12 appellate court nominees and the Supreme Court nominee through to a vote in the process. I need trump to hammer him with this
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Feb 18, 2016 04:24
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If you're looking to flip YES shares in the Supreme Court Nominee market, Jane Kelly is probably a pretty good bet. Right now you can buy shares for next to dirt cheap, and the media is going to be obsessing over her, Lynch, and Srinivasan as the possible picks for the next few weeks. She's the other 96-0 appointee that Obama got through and she was a classmate of his. Amy Klobuchar will probably get some media heat too, I'm pretty sure she was on the media short list the last two times. Personally I'm buying a wide spread of NO across the board, because given a few weeks I should have enough shares that even if one of them does get nominated first I'll make money with little overall risk due to the linking. Gyges has issued a correction as of 04:38 on Feb 18, 2016 |
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Feb 18, 2016 04:34
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Thanks for the OK poll data from today. I'd actually somehow missed that it dropped. I've got an albatross named MAPRMRY16.DEM that I need to get rid of. Down about 50% of my initial investment, all in Bernie NO, hoping another poll comes out before Super Tuesday that is friendlier to Clinton. I think the spread was Sanders +7 last time. Breaking even would be a blessing, not remotely interested in sticking it out. Just gotta find the right time to liquidate.
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Feb 18, 2016 06:24
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That STUPID loving NBC poll just took a big steaming poo poo on my Cruz 20% no shares. Who the gently caress could have called that? Cruz is at 22% average now and unless some big polls come out that have him at less than 18 I'm hosed.
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Feb 18, 2016 06:37
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I will never bet polls again.
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Feb 18, 2016 06:39
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I'm surprised Rubio Yes for South Carolina hasn't gone up since Nikki Haley endorsed him
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Feb 18, 2016 07:02
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a cop posted:I will never bet polls again. Quoth the raven.
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Feb 18, 2016 07:06
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a cop posted:I will never bet polls again.
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Feb 18, 2016 08:30
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Nirvikalpa posted:I'm surprised Rubio Yes for South Carolina hasn't gone up since Nikki Haley endorsed him Isn't Nikki Haley somewhat unpopular in her state?
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Feb 18, 2016 12:09
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I'm getting out of Cruz Yes 2nd SC. I actually think it will be Cruz, he's overperformed historically and it's South Carolina...but I'd rather have my money somewhere safer now that it seems less certain than two weeks ago.
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Feb 18, 2016 12:17
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Nirvikalpa posted:I'm surprised Rubio Yes for South Carolina hasn't gone up since Nikki Haley endorsed him No one expects him to win, but his shares for second place went from 30¢ to 50¢ in about two minutes. Gyges posted:Isn't Nikki Haley somewhat unpopular in her state? No, her popularity is good for a governor. PPP from mid November: quote:56% of voters in the state approve of the job Haley is doing to only 28% who disapprove. Her numbers with Republicans (71/18) and independents (53/27) are good but what really sets her apart from other Governors across the country is that she's at almost break even (40/42) even with Democratic voters. That's a very unusual amount of cross over support these days. The good numbers with Democrats are particularly fueled by her being at 45/30 with African Americans, suggesting continued goodwill toward her for the leadership she provided in taking down the Confederate flag. Despite (or perhaps because of) Haley's popularity, only 25% of voters want to see her on the Republican ticket next year to 59% who don't want her to be.
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Feb 18, 2016 12:48
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http://theresurgent.com/bush-campaign-sources-campaign-out-of-money-pay-ends-saturday/ No idea on the reliability (is that Erick, son of Eric?) but there does seem to be some moving on the Bush dropout before Super Tuesday market.
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Feb 18, 2016 17:20
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I bought up about 700, average of 47 cents. Shares were too cheap, anyway...coupled with that 'news' (which could be made-up) seems like a no brainer. He is low single digits nationally, will finish 4th or worse in SC, and the establishment is rushing to Rubio's side. He has absolutely no constituency, and there is no point extending the pain.
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Feb 18, 2016 17:53
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Adar posted:If Betfair had a dropout market I would buy the hell out of that. At 40c that is easily a max out. It might still be one at 69 for that matter. With that news I think 75 is fair.
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Feb 18, 2016 19:14
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For the dropout markets, do they have to announce they're dropping out before the end date, or do they have to announce they're dropping out AND go through Predictit's dumb five-day waiting period before the end date? The rules aren't clear.
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Feb 18, 2016 19:56
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Arkane posted:He has absolutely no constituency, and there is no point extending the pain. JEB! is pain though. Just pain, shame, and tortoises all the way down.
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Feb 18, 2016 19:56
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Cruz is going to win 2nd...............he has to............
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Feb 18, 2016 19:58
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Shear Modulus posted:For the dropout markets, do they have to announce they're dropping out before the end date, or do they have to announce they're dropping out AND go through Predictit's dumb five-day waiting period before the end date? The rules aren't clear. Make the announcement before the deadline, but not unsuspended within the 5 day waiting period.
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Feb 18, 2016 19:58
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"Bryan Anthony Smith" is doing yeoman's work in the comments section keeping the shares low-ish for Jeb dropping out. It's only .58 right now.
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Feb 18, 2016 20:00
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Are there any other states Jeb has put substantial resources into that would let him justify saying in just to wait and see? I mean "justify" in a subective, "need to continue to delude my staff and donors" sense, obviously there isn't an objective reason to stay in.
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Feb 18, 2016 20:29
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nachos posted:"Bryan Anthony Smith" is doing yeoman's work in the comments section keeping the shares low-ish for Jeb dropping out. It's only .58 right now. Just dropped below 50. Keep it up Bryan It's just like how"Roomstampa" kept Biden so cheap by commenting every 2 hours how he was running and then kept Trump winning cheap much longer than it should have. It keeps getting easier and easier to make money. Makes you wonder where it's coming from. Are there new people coming in with the elections who don't know what they are doing or are there people who keep pumping money in when they lose?
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Feb 18, 2016 20:41
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Right to Rise did cancel a ton Super Tuesday spending so they could "re-allocate" spending based on the South Carolina results. I think it's a signal that a drop out is coming.
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Feb 18, 2016 20:42
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How clear is it that Jeb is going to drop out before super tuesday? I haven't been following those happenings.
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Feb 18, 2016 20:44
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