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I ain’t touching Bush dropout and I ain’t touching SC runner‐up.a cop posted:How clear is it that Jeb is going to drop out before super tuesday? I haven't been following those happenings. Not all that clear. There are rumours today that staffers have been told the pay stops Saturday, but nothing concrete. Then there’s the aforementioned Super PAC ad cancellation.
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Feb 18, 2016 20:48
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Platystemon posted:I ain’t touch Bush dropout... Corrupt Politician posted:Are there any other states Jeb has put substantial resources into that would let him justify saying in just to wait and see? I mean "justify" in a subective, "need to continue to delude my staff and donors" sense, obviously there isn't an objective reason to stay in. For him to cart out half his drat family for South Carolina shows the desperation at play here. And for once I can't bet on the guy staying in the race (I maxed out on both his Iowa NO dropout and NO by 02/12 dropout markets). I think we're all on the same page though --- because of his poo poo positioning for Nevada if Jeb places fourth (or worse) and loses by 4+% that's probably the threshold where the campaign needs to start discussing funeral rites. They gave it everything short of wheeling HW out on stage, which of course wouldn't happen since the man is so old.
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Feb 18, 2016 20:48
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I mean, I just said 75 is fair so 60 is not -that- far off, but if you're "not touching it" there are probably a ton of markets where you're missing free money and/or lighting some on fire.
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Feb 18, 2016 20:55
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Adar posted:I mean, I just said 75 is fair so 60 is not -that- far off, but if you're "not touching it" there are probably a ton of markets where you're missing free money and/or lighting some on fire. The thing is that I have no idea what the fair price is. Where’s my edge? If I don’t know better than the market, it’s a straight gamble, and in the long run that’s a losing strategy. If you believe 75¢ is the fair price, go for it. I decided Rubio in second was closer to even odds a few days ago when it trading in the low thirties, so I bought in. Then he got the Haley endorsement, the market reflected what I believed to be close to the true odds, and I got out. Maybe Rubio’s momentum and party support beats Cruz’s ground game, maybe it doesn’t, but I don’t give it far from coin‐flip odds and that’s how it’s currently priced. Platystemon has issued a correction as of 21:15 on Feb 18, 2016 |
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Feb 18, 2016 21:12
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SC and Nevada are coming up and Jeb is polling badly in both. It's a safe bet that the market will react to each of those states AND any random news like what we got today. If you don't think he's going to drop, it's still a great market to flip after news cycles.
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Feb 18, 2016 21:17
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Adar posted:I mean, I just said 75 is fair so 60 is not -that- far off, but if you're "not touching it" there are probably a ton of markets where you're missing free money and/or lighting some on fire. Via Kelly Criterion there are at least five and probably a ton more primary markets that a bettor should max out at $850 before buying Jeb.Dropout shares at 60c that you think is a 75% chance of happening. It's hardly lighting money on fire to pass on this one.
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Feb 18, 2016 21:28
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nachos posted:SC and Nevada are coming up and Jeb is polling badly in both. It's a safe bet that the market will react to each of those states AND any random news like what we got today. If you don't think he's going to drop, it's still a great market to flip after news cycles. It works both ways. In particular, the dropout market will take a hit if Kasich finishes below Jeb and again if Kasich drops. e: Though Kasich dropout is priced quite low, so I guess other bettors don’t think that’s as likely as I do. I just don’t see where the money will come from to keep him going. Even if he beats Bush in SC and NV, Rubio is still their golden boy and there will be pressure on him to drop. He might as well do it with dignity. Platystemon has issued a correction as of 21:48 on Feb 18, 2016 |
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Feb 18, 2016 21:38
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If the Carson drop out No market drops down a little more I'll probably by me some. He's not actually running and hasn't been for a while. The book tour's still got stops and as long as that money's flowing the good doctor has no reason to stop. I bet Ron Paul has called him at least once asking if he would be his son. From Rand's house.
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Feb 18, 2016 21:45
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I only bought in Jeb Dropout for 100 shares or so at .55 --- I'll probably sell if it cracks .70 some point soon.
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Feb 18, 2016 21:48
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nachos posted:SC and Nevada are coming up and Jeb is polling badly in both. It's a safe bet that the market will react to each of those states AND any random news like what we got today. If you don't think he's going to drop, it's still a great market to flip after news cycles. i got some at 40 last night and woke up to them priced at 67 so yeah this works pretty well
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Feb 18, 2016 23:12
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Platystemon posted:It works both ways. In particular, the dropout market will take a hit if Kasich finishes below Jeb and again if Kasich drops. He surely stays in until Ohio.
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Feb 18, 2016 23:28
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Hmm, I had bought some Jeb Dropout NO because it's gotten so low, but it looks like its only going down even further and this thread makes me think he'll drop out after all... fuuuuuck. maybe I'll just take a small loss and get out now.
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Feb 19, 2016 00:33
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a cop posted:Cruz is going to win 2nd...............he has to............ When you start thinking like this it is time to take losses and go somewhere safer, imo. That's part of why I got out. But he does have the ground game.
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Feb 19, 2016 00:40
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I must have missed something- why is Carson drop out before ST so low ?
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Feb 19, 2016 00:42
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The Real Paddy posted:When you start thinking like this it is time to take losses and go somewhere safer, imo. That's part of why I got out. But he does have the ground game. Never!! NEVER!!! I'll still break even if he loses. Then I'll go back to slow, steady, and boring. But I like having a nice juicy bet on this poo poo. It'll make Saturday interesting. I also think it's fairly undervalued- it's better than a 50/50. Cruz has the ground game, it's his territory in terms of demographics, and he's had the lead in nearly every single poll for the last few months, even yesterday in a poll w/ a 5000 sample size (by 2 points). I think the odds of Cruz supporters fervently actually-showing-up are greater than the rubio people. e: Although, when you consider the undecideds, maybe it is a 50/50. No telling where they'll swing. Trash Trick has issued a correction as of 00:47 on Feb 19, 2016 |
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Feb 19, 2016 00:43
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Oh and 2nd question: what the hell was up with that NBC national poll?
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Feb 19, 2016 00:45
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:Oh and 2nd question: what the hell was up with that NBC national poll? The Jewish conspiracy rigged it against Trump I think.
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Feb 19, 2016 00:48
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:Oh and 2nd question: what the hell was up with that NBC national poll? I was upside down in the trump market so I had to call in some favors
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Feb 19, 2016 00:49
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html Trump now at 34.2 nationally, pre SC win... https://youtu.be/ZvCI-gNK_y4
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Feb 19, 2016 00:59
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EngineerSean posted:Via Kelly Criterion there are at least five and probably a ton more primary markets that a bettor should max out at $850 before buying Jeb.Dropout shares at 60c that you think is a 75% chance of happening. It's hardly lighting money on fire to pass on this one. Kelly doesn't apply on PI unless you are broke IRL. Because of the 850/4500 limits (the second one does exist right? I couldn't get confirmation either way but I saw somebody mention it) you need far more money available on March 1 and then November than you're ever going to be able to get on the site. Aggressively taking +EV bets is the best way to do this. I don't think there are too many K's with big action available there that are this mispriced pre-March 1.
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Feb 19, 2016 01:01
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Wooo I'm glad I got Cruz for 3rd place SC shares at 8 cents a piece 
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Feb 19, 2016 01:15
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:I must have missed something- why is Carson drop out before ST so low ? This is a good question. I'd like to know too.
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Feb 19, 2016 01:30
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Someone's buying up a whole lotta Rubio.2nd.NO 
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Feb 19, 2016 01:31
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:I must have missed something- why is Carson drop out before ST so low ? is .61 low? Seems like his campaign has money to continue and he's got books to sell.
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Feb 19, 2016 01:34
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Adar posted:Kelly doesn't apply on PI unless you are broke IRL. Because of the 850/4500 limits (the second one does exist right? I couldn't get confirmation either way but I saw somebody mention it) you need far more money available on March 1 and then November than you're ever going to be able to get on the site. Aggressively taking +EV bets is the best way to do this. I don't think there are too many K's with big action available there that are this mispriced pre-March 1. Hmmm actually I was going to say Kelly maximizes bankroll over time but I just realized that if you treat this like the early stage of a rebuy tournament, it IS in your best interest to take riskier bets. I do have infinite $4500 rebuys but I'm just doing this for fun and don't want to explain to my wife how I lost $25k on TRUMP.
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Feb 19, 2016 01:39
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Adar posted:Kelly doesn't apply on PI unless you are broke IRL. Because of the 850/4500 limits (the second one does exist right? I couldn't get confirmation either way but I saw somebody mention it) you need far more money available on March 1 and then November than you're ever going to be able to get on the site. Aggressively taking +EV bets is the best way to do this. I don't think there are too many K's with big action available there that are this mispriced pre-March 1. I've got more than 4500 in it right now. 850 is definitely the limit for individual market, but linked markets let you bet 850 per line. So I could put 850 on Hillary YES/NO, 850 on Bernie YES/NO and 850 on O'Malley YES/NO, letting me buy a total of 2550 worth of shares in that 3 way market.
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Feb 19, 2016 01:41
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I don't understand how the linked markets work. I tried messing around in one and got excited when I got credited for purchasing more shares but my risk is so low now I just guaranteed myself pennies of profit I need some equations to explain it
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Feb 19, 2016 01:43
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Gyges posted:I've got more than 4500 in it right now. 850 is definitely the limit for individual market, but linked markets let you bet 850 per line. So I could put 850 on Hillary YES/NO, 850 on Bernie YES/NO and 850 on O'Malley YES/NO, letting me buy a total of 2550 worth of shares in that 3 way market. I'm about a thousand short of $4500 myself but you might want to check and see if you're able to deposit. I've never heard of a deposit limit but it wouldn't surprise me.
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Feb 19, 2016 01:52
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Commie NedFlanders posted:I don't understand how the linked markets work. I tried messing around in one and got excited when I got credited for purchasing more shares but my risk is so low now I just guaranteed myself pennies of profit Imagine four wads of cash at the edge of a cliff...
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Feb 19, 2016 01:55
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EngineerSean posted:I'm about a thousand short of $4500 myself but you might want to check and see if you're able to deposit. I've never heard of a deposit limit but it wouldn't surprise me. I haven't hit a deposit limit and I have significantly more than 4500 in.
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Feb 19, 2016 01:56
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Commie NedFlanders posted:I don't understand how the linked markets work. I tried messing around in one and got excited when I got credited for purchasing more shares but my risk is so low now I just guaranteed myself pennies of profit Fees are calculated in your risk, but I'm going to ignore them here for ease of calculation. Say in the USPREZ market, both Trump and Clinton are trading at 40c and 60c respectively. If you bought 100 shares of NO for each of them, you'd spend $100. Your worst case scenario is that one of those two people win the presidency, in which case 100 of your shares would resolve to 0c and 100 of your shares would resolve to $1. In this case, you spent $100 (100 shares of Clinton.NO @ 40 and 100 shares of Trump.NO @ 60), and your worst case scenario states that you'll get $100 back (100 shares @ $1 a piece). Your risk is $0. If neither candidate wins the presidency, you'll win $100 on top of your $0 risk. Let's throw a third candidate in, Bernie. Bernie's trading at 5c, so NO costs 95c. If you buy 100 shares of him, you have now spent $195. Your worst case scenario has changed, too. Now, if any of these three candidates wins, 100 shares will resolve to 0c, and 200 shares will resolve to $1. So your worst case scenario is $200, and you spent $195. Your risk is negative $5. If none of these three candidates win, you'll win an extra $100 on top of that -$5 risk. The math obviously gets more complicated when you have different numbers of shares of different candidates, but that's the gist of it. edit: It can be very profitable, here's my screenshot from Iowa. Note that the fact that the highlighted column is not in parentheses means that I earned a guaranteed $291 in my worst case scenario. 
EngineerSean has issued a correction as of 02:22 on Feb 19, 2016 |
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Feb 19, 2016 01:59
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Here's a reminder: You must hit 15% to get a delegate in the South Carolina Republican primary. So anyone who's looking like they won't manage to break 15% is a good candidate for dropping out in shame.
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Feb 19, 2016 02:03
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fishmech posted:Here's a reminder: You must hit 15% to get a delegate in the South Carolina Republican primary. So anyone who's looking like they won't manage to break 15% is a good candidate for dropping out in shame. even Carson?
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Feb 19, 2016 02:05
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EngineerSean posted:Fees are calculated in your risk, but I'm going to ignore them here for ease of calculation. So...much....win..... 
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Feb 19, 2016 02:10
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I can't find any polling but logic would dictate that Hillary is probably going to win in Kansas right? Seems like a 50/50 spread at this point so could be ripe for some hedging.
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Feb 19, 2016 02:10
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What do ya'll think about the likelihood of Kasich sticking around? It seems futile, but he has a "lane" and his numbers are still trending upwards, he might be inclined to see how the more liberal contests go...
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Feb 19, 2016 02:12
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a cop posted:I can't find any polling but logic would dictate that Hillary is probably going to win in Kansas right? Seems like a 50/50 spread at this point so could be ripe for some hedging. Check the big 538 state by state chart. IIRC there are some surprises such as Bernie currently splitting the vote in Oklahoma.
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Feb 19, 2016 02:13
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The Real Paddy posted:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html pro tip: 39 will drop before 29th, 26 will stay
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Feb 19, 2016 02:14
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Vox Nihili posted:What do ya'll think about the likelihood of Kasich sticking around? It seems futile, but he has a "lane" and his numbers are still trending upwards, he might be inclined to see how the more liberal contests go... Absolutely, he has infrastructure in the Rust Belt already. He wants to compete in Ohio.
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Feb 19, 2016 02:16
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Vox Nihili posted:Check the big 538 state by state chart. IIRC there are some surprises such as Bernie currently splitting the vote in Oklahoma. Sorry but link?? http://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/2016-democratic-primary/ is what i find googling.. Arkane posted:pro tip: 39 will drop before 29th, 26 will stay If you end up resolving those NOs, and Rubio ends up winning 2nd in SC, I will never ever EVER loving doubt you again.
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Feb 19, 2016 02:16
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