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An enormous amount of voters came out for Trump in Iowa. It just so happened that a lot came out for Cruz too. The caucus format isn't inherently bad for trump.
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Feb 23, 2016 03:12
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thethreeman posted:haha k, good. Any key points/numbers/data I'm missing or are you betting on momentum and the same stuff I mentioned? The GOP loyalty oath was a dumb idea and now that the party abandoned them it only benefits Trump in an open primary. Can you believe the VAGOP refused to pay back the state for the $62,000 in print fees for those things? And absentee voters are already using them (Jan 15th onward). Overall, it's looking very good for Trump on March 1st here. At the same time it's one of Rubio's only chances to win a primary so you're right, he'll spend a lot of cash on ads. Ever since Trump announced his candidacy he's lead here with the exception of Carson's fall spike. I think a lot of folks assume Rubio's consolidating support, and that's probably true but not enough to change the game here. And Kasich isn't doing Marco any favors by staying in. edit: 1250 Trump YES shares, long StevePerry has issued a correction as of 03:22 on Feb 23, 2016 |
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Feb 23, 2016 03:16
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:I think it's a big mistake to use Iowa as an indicator for the Nevada caucus, they just don't correlate very well. Trump lost the expectations game for sure but Iowa was bad for him for a bunch of reasons (demographics, campaign style). In 2008 you have Romney placing 2nd to a hyper religious candidate and going on to crush the Nevada caucus, and in 2012 you had a similar thing happen though he did much better in Iowa that year. A way high number of Nevada Republicans are Mormon which helped Romney, but other than that you make a good points about the demographics (more urban, more libertarian) and the less touchy feely campaign style.
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Feb 23, 2016 03:21
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Peachstapler posted:No you seemed to cover almost everything. I think NoVa breathed a sigh of relief when Trump barely came in second in Iowa. Trump and Cruz just don't have the support there that Rubio does and I think you nailed that Richmond and its suburbs will lean his way too. But not outside a certain threshold --- Cruz support becomes noteworthy towards West Virginia, Trump is very well liked in coastal Virginia/Tidewater and the news gets even better for him (and Cruz to some degree) out towards Roanoke. Trump has been tooting the "audit the fed" horn to try to reel in libertarians and that'll earn him some favor in the commonwealth. good stuff, thanks
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Feb 23, 2016 04:15
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Lol, I posted the bit about the absentee vote lookup being broken on the SC.gov site (which is true) and someone responded with "Lying about this is fraud. A felony. Just saying."
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Feb 23, 2016 04:25
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a cop posted:Lol, I posted the bit about the absentee vote lookup being broken on the SC.gov site (which is true) and someone responded with "Lying about this is fraud. A felony. Just saying." But can you call the cops on ... a cop
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Feb 23, 2016 04:45
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Nevada 2nd place looks interesting. It's 80% Rubio, 22% Cruz. I just picked up 100 Cruz. It is a caucus state and the polling has been close. Not betting against Trump to win though. I like this too. Cruz feels really underpriced here, especially given the wild swings as results come in.
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Feb 23, 2016 04:48
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The fivethirtyeight.com Polls Only forecast gives Cruz an 11% chance to win Nevada and Rubio 9%. Polls on RCP haven't been updated in a week but have Cruz basically tied or leading Rubio. Isnt buying Cruz Yes 2ndNV at anything less than $.40 a no brainer? Especially if you plan to pay attention as results roll in?
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Feb 23, 2016 05:38
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Considering how long it's been since a poll and how often Nevada polls are off, I wouldn't say it's a no brainer. It should be easy to flip though. When do the caucuses start tomorrow anyway?
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Feb 23, 2016 05:42
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Gyges posted:Considering how long it's been since a poll and how often Nevada polls are off, I wouldn't say it's a no brainer. It should be easy to flip though. 8pm est end time shows as 12am EST
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Feb 23, 2016 05:49
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The Good Doctor dropping out before Super Tuesday is getting low enough that it's tempting. There's a plausible chance that he's just hanging in there to show some sort of grit or something and will drop out when he gets a similar vote share to Gilmore. Also he's down to $3 million in book tour money.
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Feb 23, 2016 05:57
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Gyges posted:The Good Doctor dropping out before Super Tuesday is getting low enough that it's tempting. There's a plausible chance that he's just hanging in there to show some sort of grit or something and will drop out when he gets a similar vote share to Gilmore. Also he's down to $3 million in book tour money. Putting his name out there in all those states is great advertising, plus there is a debate on Thursday he will attend. He will concede after Super Tuesday.
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Feb 23, 2016 06:23
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I feel uneasy betting on the mental state of Ben Carson.
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Feb 23, 2016 06:25
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There really is zero point in dropping out before the 15th, as the chances of grabbing a few delegates from PR-handled primaries are guaranteed if you're polling above 2%..
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Feb 23, 2016 06:37
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Aliquid posted:There really is zero point in dropping out before the 15th, as the chances of grabbing a few delegates from PR-handled primaries are guaranteed if you're polling above 2%.. The idea that Carson is in this to leverage change within the party via delegates seems quite a flawed premise. More delegates don't increase book sales unless they're numerous enough to keep you in the news.
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Feb 23, 2016 13:58
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Cruz is probably undervalued on NV, but who loving knows with that state. Might play it during results. Cruz +8 in Texas, 37-29. 20%~ of votes have been cast in early voting already most likely. He was trending down before, could be a decent buy, especially if you're trumped out elsewhere.
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Feb 23, 2016 14:07
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Starting to get nervous about NV tonight. Thinking about hedging my Trump bets with some Rubio and Cruz YES bets just to be safe.
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Feb 23, 2016 17:42
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I bought some Rubio no in NV 2nd yesterday. This price is insanely low. It's not based on anything tangible at all.
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Feb 23, 2016 17:42
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Concerned Citizen posted:I bought some Rubio no in NV 2nd yesterday. This price is insanely low. It's not based on anything tangible at all. It has been a godawful week for Cruz. No position for me.
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Feb 23, 2016 18:35
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For people playing in NV, keep in mind it is fairly likely we won't know the results tonight, and if we do, it will be very late. Most returns wont be in until after 2am est. Last time it took 3 days to count. So if you aren't planning to buy and hold for result, could be a pain.
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Feb 23, 2016 18:45
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G-Hawk posted:For people playing in NV, keep in mind it is fairly likely we won't know the results tonight, and if we do, it will be very late. Most returns wont be in until after 2am est. Last time it took 3 days to count. So if you aren't planning to buy and hold for result, could be a pain. But they're taking pictures of the precinct vote tallies with their smart phones and texting them to the Supervisor of Elections this time. What could possibly go wrong?
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Feb 23, 2016 19:39
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I'm sure this has been discussed in the past, but how does the 10% profit fee work in linked contracts? Is the profit from each contract tallied separately, or is the fee applied to the total net profit? Basically, given my very slight negative risk in Nevada, am I going to make a small 25-cent profit assuming Trump wins, or will the fee be greater, giving me a small loss? 
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Feb 23, 2016 19:48
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Corrupt Politician posted:I'm sure this has been discussed in the past, but how does the 10% profit fee work in linked contracts? Is the profit from each contract tallied separately, or is the fee applied to the total net profit? Each contract is scored separately. I'm not great at reading these screenshots, so I can't tell you exactly what every scenario will bring you, but say you lose $20 on one and make $10 on 2 of them meaning you would break even on theory. However you would still pay $1 in fees for each of the $10 wins, so overall you would be down $2.00
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Feb 23, 2016 20:09
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The risk column compiles everything, including fees. You'll win .26 if Trump wins, win two fiddy if Rubio/Cruz wins.
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Feb 23, 2016 20:14
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Arkane posted:The risk column compiles everything, including fees. Thanks. This means there are a lot more 1-2c arbitrage opportunities than I thought.
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Feb 23, 2016 20:46
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Trump R nom is at 61c. This is still undervalued imo. I sold my Sanders nos and bought in. It's not unthinkable that the party fucks him at the convention but I expect him to clean up on Super Tuesday and the price to shoot up.
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Feb 23, 2016 22:48
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Shear Modulus posted:Trump R nom is at 61c. This is still undervalued imo. I sold my Sanders nos and bought in. I think Rubio no is a better buy if they are close in price. Rubio is going to do more swingy idiot poo poo like skipping CPAC and there will be opportunities to flip.
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Feb 23, 2016 22:51
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nachos posted:I think Rubio no is a better buy if they are close in price. Rubio is going to do more swingy idiot poo poo like skipping CPAC and there will be opportunities to flip. Good point. I actually canceled some of my Trump buy offers and put in some on Rubio nos right before I saw your post, lol. They're slightly more expensive because there's still like 2-4% on Cruz and Kasich.
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Feb 23, 2016 22:58
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Finally made an account to get in on this Carson action.
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Feb 23, 2016 23:20
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SpiderHyphenMan posted:Finally made an account to get in on this Carson action. uhhhh...
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Feb 23, 2016 23:31
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what is the current concensous on SCOTUS confirm? I am thinking that it is basically a bet on if the dems/reps take the presidency and/or white house, and with this $0.20 swing then yes is becoming more tempting
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Feb 23, 2016 23:54
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That Nevada cakewalk market sure is interesting.
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Feb 23, 2016 23:56
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Jewel Repetition posted:That Nevada cakewalk market sure is interesting. Flippin' it like there's no tomorrow 
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Feb 24, 2016 00:45
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a cop posted:uhhhh...
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Feb 24, 2016 01:04
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Concerned Citizen posted:Flippin' it like there's no tomorrow The smart path
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Feb 24, 2016 01:15
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My philosophy: Trump train, no brakes = marginal gains, sure takes
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Feb 24, 2016 01:27
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I've won big on debates, lost big on polls and elections, but using a steady strategy of patience , looking at the drat graphs, and flipping has been the most reliable and consistent money making strategy for me. I lost big betting on Bernie in Nevada but I've already earned it all back from flipping shares in volatile markets Tiny gains repeated enough times adds up
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Feb 24, 2016 01:30
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Words of wisdom, the least exciting strategies are the best ones. Penny flip grinding if you've got low capital, or stacking up on sure bets once they approach 90 cents if you've got more money to leverage
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Feb 24, 2016 01:32
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Yeah. Agreed with all of that 100 percent. I don't bet on polls. My biggest loss was in the dropout market. Riding the graphs made it back though.
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Feb 24, 2016 01:37
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Commie NedFlanders posted:Words of wisdom, the least exciting strategies are the best ones. So what are your tips for flipping? Obviously buy low and sell higher, but what do you look for to find the bottom/top? Do you look at anything related to the volume traded? Are you taking $.01-.02 profits per share or more like $.04-.05? How long do you wait to flip? Is it more like minutes or several hours or even a day? Do you leave active offers open to sell or do you watch the prices?
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Feb 24, 2016 01:39
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