Auspol February: The NRL Really Screwed The Pooch

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Auspol February: The NRL Really Screwed The Pooch

«‹›83 »

Tokamak: Dec 22, 2004

PaletteSwappedNinja posted:

Where's Shorten?

Who?

# ? Feb 23, 2016 14:22

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 29, 2024 14:05

NPR Journalizard: Feb 14, 2008

Anidav posted:

14,000 just sitting and waiting in Indonesia huh? Those numbers must come from Duttons rear end.

So just over our yearly intake of refugees, and waaaaaaay under our annual immigration figures. Get them all over here now, and then the people smugglers would have noone willing to make the journey. There. problem solved.

# ? Feb 23, 2016 14:38

Megillah Gorilla: Sep 22, 2003; If only all of life's problems could be solved by smoking a professor of ancient evil texts.; Bread Liar

We're a nation of 24 million people. 14,000 is just a drop in the ocean.

But our politicians would rather they all died. Every single one.

# ? Feb 23, 2016 14:41

Doctor Spaceman: Jul 6, 2010; "Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

PaletteSwappedNinja posted:

Where's Shorten?

I'm guessing it's related to the senate reform stuff (as well as the DD), which Labor isn't really supporting.

# ? Feb 23, 2016 15:37

Birb Katter: Sep 18, 2010; BOATS STOPPED
CARBON TAX AXED
TURNBULL AS PM
LIBERALS WILL BE RE-ELECTED IN A LANDSLIDE

Is van Badham seriously trying to tell Antony Green how preferences work?

# ? Feb 23, 2016 21:57

You Am I: May 20, 2001; Me @ your poasting

Birb Katter posted:

Is van Badham seriously trying to tell Antony Green how preferences work?

More like Van Badperson am I right?

Yes, yes I am since she is a Labor shrill

# ? Feb 23, 2016 22:14

Birb Katter: Sep 18, 2010; BOATS STOPPED
CARBON TAX AXED
TURNBULL AS PM
LIBERALS WILL BE RE-ELECTED IN A LANDSLIDE

Bold the whole thing really. I tried to cherry pick the good bits but had to give up.

AFR posted:

Uncovering the big Aussie short

It was like a scene from the film The Big Short. A hedge-fund manager and an economist pose as a gay couple on a combined income of $125,000 and tour Sydney's western suburbs viewing housing developments and meeting mortgage brokers for research to determine if there's a housing bubble.

The conclusion is it's worse than they thought.

"The further west I went, the more irrational it felt. Lots and lots of supply and prices that bore no resemblance to construction cost and income of people around there," says John Hempton, Bronte Capital's chief investment officer.

He joined with Jonathan Tepper, an economist and founder of Variant Perception, and toured suburbs across north-west and south-west Sydney and met with 20 mortgage brokers three weeks ago.

What they discovered repeatedly was that mortgage brokers were advising them to lie on loan application documents about the deposit for a house and about income.

As Tepper has written in a report, "we asked if the bank would call our employer, and both reputable and disreputable brokers said banks rarely verified payslips".

Hempton says they were also told the checking of documents was sometimes done by Indian call centres. What also concerned Hempton was that on loan applications low-income earners were often offered discounts on the advertised mortgage rate of up to a 1 percentage point, increasing the vulnerability of the banks if there were a correction.

"The banks have always said their underwriting is of high quality," says Hempton. "We just went around and this was not the story we were told. We were coached on how to get things through banks."

HOUSING CRASH

Hempton says an oversupply in apartments and housing, particularly in west and north-west Sydney, surprised him as did the prices. He says around Parramatta he saw apartments selling for $11,000 a square metre as their listing price.

"Hong Kong is about $11,000 a square metre and Manhattan averages about $14,000 a square metre."

Hempton, who has short positions on there being a correction in the Australian housing market, helped expose the superannuation fraud at Trio Capital.

Tepper in his report bluntly warns "Australia now has one of the biggest housing bubbles in history", noting the country's real estate value to GDP is 3.8 times compared with Ireland and Japan, which both were at multiples of 3.5 times before they before they experienced a housing market crash.

In Japan's case real estate prices fell 80 per cent over the next decade and in Ireland they fell 50 per cent in the following six years.

He is predicting falls in the Australian housing market of up to 50 per cent in Sydney and Melbourne and of about 80 per cent in mining towns.

"Australia now has the highest level of household debt to GDP in the entire world."

Tepper is also warning of a sharp fall in Australian bank stocks.

"Australian banks require large scale wholesale funding. In the event of a banking crisis, it will be difficult to roll the wholesale funding without any public sector guarantees. The Reserve Bank of Australia will guarantee the banks and charge a fee, as it did in the 2008 financial crisis. We anticipate most bank shares will cut dividends entirely, raise capital and stock prices will likely decline 80 per cent." He also predicted the Australia dollar could trade to 40c against the United States dollar.

"A weakening currency is what we have seen in almost all other banking crises."

PONZI SCHEME

Tepper says in the research both men encountered many investors who were able to get revaluations on their properties to increase their equity for speculative purposes. "We met one who was able to do this 20 times in a year with their property portfolio."

Hempton says in north-western Sydney they met one mortgage broker who told them which of the big four banks would revalue properties quickly. "They wanted to put you in 10 to 15 apartments. The only way they could do that was getting the bank to revalue the property so you could borrow more money. They were acute about which banks had bad practices."

Tepper writes of getting a ride with an Uber driver who said he had his own house, had bought five investment properties in Queensland with no cash deposits, and went guarantor for his daughter who bought a $2.2 million home.

His report noted that "over the past few years over 40 per cent of all new mortgages originated have been interest-only mortgages". "This is truly Ponzi financing, where home buyers only make money if their houses keep rising in value. Paying interest only and revaluing property allows for a Ponzi dynamic. As prices rise in a Ponzi fashion, more equity allows for more deposits. This will reverse viciously when prices fall."

In the research of meeting brokers and touring western Sydney, Tepper and Hempton also met property experts, banks and government officials.

Their research is an unrepresentative sample of all of Australia but Hempton challenges anyone to go out and start looking at the glut of property that exists in the west.

"Go drive around western Sydney at the moment. It was pretty obvious to us there was a lot of unsold inventory."

Tepper's report quotes BIS Shrapnel, noting that dwelling starts had reached a new record nationally in 2014/15 and exceeded underlying demand in all states.

TAKING OUT INSURANCE

Hempton says in their research they encountered developers lying about units and houses being sold in the west. "You'd go into a building in Parramatta and it will mark the apartments as sold. You say, 'I really want the one on the north-east side' and suddenly one will be unsold."

Tepper's report says the prices of properties for sale of $500,000 to $700,000 in Blacktown, Rooty Hill and Mount Druitt in Sydney's west were in some of the city's poorest areas, where there were many pawn shops and money transfer establishments, was a surprise and crazy.

He notes that Blacktown's median prices are now $640,000 and are up over 50 per cent since December 2012. Prices in Mount Druitt and Rooty Hill have also doubled since 2012. In those areas, he says, the house prices are at least eight times income and more.

The report also notes that prices have doubled in the outer suburbs of Melbourne, such as Sunshine, since 2012.

Hempton says before driving around he would have said houses prices in Manly were crazy but now believes they're more extreme in areas such as Rouse Hill. He says while a planned north-west train line is being credited with boosting house prices, there are suburbs in south-west Sydney with existing train lines where prices are nowhere near as inflated.

He also noted that as they drove west they saw more and more advertisements for deposit guarantees, which meant rather than putting a deposit down on a house you can take out an insurance contract that will pay the deposit if you default.

# ? Feb 23, 2016 22:22

Birb Katter: Sep 18, 2010; BOATS STOPPED
CARBON TAX AXED
TURNBULL AS PM
LIBERALS WILL BE RE-ELECTED IN A LANDSLIDE

And just in case you thought maybe it's not all bad ...

#deathiscertain

# ? Feb 23, 2016 22:24

tithin: Nov 14, 2003; [Grandmaster Tactician]

Birb Katter posted:

Bold the whole thing really. I tried to cherry pick the good bits but had to give up.

Interesting

*steeples fingers*

In actuality this is a good article.

# ? Feb 23, 2016 22:29

Birb Katter: Sep 18, 2010; BOATS STOPPED
CARBON TAX AXED
TURNBULL AS PM
LIBERALS WILL BE RE-ELECTED IN A LANDSLIDE

While I'm on a roll, there is more in the article if this isn't enough.

Australian / (basically) Belgian Co-operation posted:

Denmark considers Arctic, African solutions to stop asylum seekers

Kangaroos, koalas and "beautiful" borders.

If you had to summarise what the Danish People's Party thought of Australia that might be pretty much it.

"I'm a big fan," Kenneth Kristensen Berth tells me.

He is the European Affairs spokesman for the right wing group, which last year became Denmark's second biggest political party with more than 21 per cent of the vote.

It has the stated aim of making the country "the least attractive in western Europe" for asylum seekers.

"We need an Australia solution," Mr Kristensen Berth says.

"We want to send these people to north-eastern Greenland ... and potentially a country like Tanzania, which Denmark has collaborated with for years."

# ? Feb 23, 2016 22:30

KingEup: Nov 18, 2004; I am a REAL ADDICT
(to threadshitting)

Please ask me for my google inspired wisdom on shit I know nothing about. Actually, you don't even have to ask.

Birb Katter posted:

Bold the whole thing really. I tried to cherry pick the good bits but had to give up.

I remember a little thread in these very forums about how Australia's housing market is doomed. Whatever happened to that?

# ? Feb 23, 2016 22:33

Recoome: Nov 9, 2013; Matter of fact, I'm salty now.

Birb Katter posted:

And just in case you thought maybe it's not all bad ...

#deathiscertain

nice

# ? Feb 23, 2016 22:37

Recoome: Nov 9, 2013; Matter of fact, I'm salty now.

Birb Katter posted:

While I'm on a roll, there is more in the article if this isn't enough.

yes i am glad of this

# ? Feb 23, 2016 22:43

Zenithe: Feb 25, 2013; _{Ask not to whom the Anidavatar belongs; it belongs to thee.}

What happens to rent prices when housing prices crash historically?

Birb Katter posted:

While I'm on a roll, there is more in the article if this isn't enough.

I'm still amazed that calling your plan to stop refugees "The _____ Solution" is a thing.

# ? Feb 23, 2016 22:45

tithin: Nov 14, 2003; [Grandmaster Tactician]

At least if there's a crash, I'll have job security. How morbid.

# ? Feb 23, 2016 22:47

Recoome: Nov 9, 2013; Matter of fact, I'm salty now.

Zenithe posted:

I'm still amazed that calling your plan to stop refugees "The _____ Solution" is a thing.

When people said "those who neglect history are doomed to repeat it", they really weren't loving kidding.

I am currently living in 1930's Nazi Germany and I just can't wake up

# ? Feb 23, 2016 22:48

Birb Katter: Sep 18, 2010; BOATS STOPPED
CARBON TAX AXED
TURNBULL AS PM
LIBERALS WILL BE RE-ELECTED IN A LANDSLIDE

tithin posted:

At least if there's a crash, I'll have job security. How morbid.

Just remember, when you still have a job and we come to eat the rich you only have yourself to blame.

# ? Feb 23, 2016 22:48

SMILLENNIALSMILLEN: Jun 26, 2009

I liked it better when australia was known as a place to cook shellfish rather than being on the cutting edge of foreigner torture

# ? Feb 23, 2016 22:50

birdstrike: Oct 30, 2008; i;m gay

Zenithe posted:

I'm still amazed that calling your plan to stop refugees "The _____ Solution" is a thing.

Send them to Flensburg imo.

There's your solution to the Schleswig-Holstein Question

# ? Feb 23, 2016 22:53

Birb Katter: Sep 18, 2010; BOATS STOPPED
CARBON TAX AXED
TURNBULL AS PM
LIBERALS WILL BE RE-ELECTED IN A LANDSLIDE

Yesterday:

Malcolm Turnbull posted:

They (Labor) want the price of your home to go down, that is their objective and if they win the election they will succeed in smashing home values ... vote Labor and be poorer. Vote Labor and see your house price go down.

Today:

Kelly O�Dwyer posted:

The Labor party has a very irresponsible campaign, they have got a policy that will increase the cost of housing for all Australians, for those people who own a home and for those people who would like to get into the housing market through their negative gearing policy.

# ? Feb 23, 2016 23:05

Birb Katter: Sep 18, 2010; BOATS STOPPED
CARBON TAX AXED
TURNBULL AS PM
LIBERALS WILL BE RE-ELECTED IN A LANDSLIDE

https://twitter.com/primroseriordan/status/702252720623738880

# ? Feb 23, 2016 23:08

Birb Katter: Sep 18, 2010; BOATS STOPPED
CARBON TAX AXED
TURNBULL AS PM
LIBERALS WILL BE RE-ELECTED IN A LANDSLIDE

Here is the video, Bernardi says "At least I'm honest, Bill"

https://twitter.com/primroseriordan/status/702256201195589632

# ? Feb 23, 2016 23:23

CATTASTIC: Mar 31, 2010; ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Getting owned by Shill Borten. Shameful.

# ? Feb 23, 2016 23:30

Snod.: Oct 3, 2014

You know Bill has been training his whole life for this moment.

# ? Feb 23, 2016 23:31

Recoome: Nov 9, 2013; Matter of fact, I'm salty now.

Jesus christ

# ? Feb 23, 2016 23:32

Solemn Sloth: Jul 11, 2015; Baby you can shout at me,
But you can't need my eyes.

"At least I'm not a homophobe mate"
"At least I'm honest bill"
"Hi honest bill, I'm dad"

# ? Feb 23, 2016 23:48

HookShot: Dec 26, 2005

In the Canadian housing bubble thread we're bemoaning the fact that if house prices in Vancouver drop 20-30% that still takes us back to literally last year's prices.

# ? Feb 23, 2016 23:49

Birb Katter: Sep 18, 2010; BOATS STOPPED
CARBON TAX AXED
TURNBULL AS PM
LIBERALS WILL BE RE-ELECTED IN A LANDSLIDE

HookShot posted:

In the Australian housing bubble thread we're bemoaning the fact that if house prices in Sydney drop 20-30% that still takes us back to literally last year's prices.

# ? Feb 23, 2016 23:51

Zenithe: Feb 25, 2013; _{Ask not to whom the Anidavatar belongs; it belongs to thee.}

Hey, so what happens to rent prices if property values go lower?

# ? Feb 23, 2016 23:53

Amoeba102: Jan 22, 2010

Generally. not much. People can only pay so much rent.

# ? Feb 23, 2016 23:54

Solemn Sloth: Jul 11, 2015; Baby you can shout at me,
But you can't need my eyes.

Birb Katter posted:

In the Australian housing bubble thread we're bemoaning the fact that if house prices in Sydney drop 20-30% that still takes us back to literally last week's prices.

# ? Feb 23, 2016 23:59

KingEup: Nov 18, 2004; I am a REAL ADDICT
(to threadshitting)

Please ask me for my google inspired wisdom on shit I know nothing about. Actually, you don't even have to ask.

What ever happened to the Australian housing bubble megathread? Anyone got a link?

# ? Feb 24, 2016 00:14

Anidav: Feb 25, 2010; ahhh fuck its the rats again

Ah yes. Champion of gay rights. Bill Shorten, the man who set a vague as gently caress timeline on marriage equality and treated it as if his party won the lottery.

# ? Feb 24, 2016 00:15

open24hours: Jan 7, 2001

KingEup posted:

What ever happened to the Australian housing bubble megathread? Anyone got a link?

I think people got tired of waiting for it to burst. I suppose it has to eventually, but people have been saying it's just around the corner for like ten years.

# ? Feb 24, 2016 00:16

KingEup: Nov 18, 2004; I am a REAL ADDICT
(to threadshitting)

Please ask me for my google inspired wisdom on shit I know nothing about. Actually, you don't even have to ask.

open24hours posted:

I think people got tired of waiting for it to burst. I suppose it has to eventually, but people have been saying it's just around the corner for like ten years.

But got a link?

# ? Feb 24, 2016 00:18

gay picnic defence: Oct 5, 2009; I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Birb Katter posted:

Bold the whole thing really. I tried to cherry pick the good bits but had to give up.

They mention Ireland's and Japan's housing bubbles but did they have schemes like NG to artificially prop the pries up?

I'm looking forward to research like this being used by the LNP and the Property Council to justify keep NG and the CGT discount in place

# ? Feb 24, 2016 00:18

gay picnic defence: Oct 5, 2009; I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

KingEup posted:

But got a link?

I thought I had it bookmarked but I guess I didn't because I can't find it. I think I remember you posting in it though so check your post history

# ? Feb 24, 2016 00:33

Birb Katter: Sep 18, 2010; BOATS STOPPED
CARBON TAX AXED
TURNBULL AS PM
LIBERALS WILL BE RE-ELECTED IN A LANDSLIDE

gay picnic defence posted:

I thought I had it bookmarked but I guess I didn't because I can't find it. I think I remember you posting in it though so check your post history

If it's dropped into archives then it won't be in your bookmarks anymore.

---

O'Dwyer has cleared up any confusion you may have had about her saying prices will rise without negative gearing while Turdball is saying they will crash

---

And a friendly reminder as Turdball attacks Safe Schools, this is how he felt about the gayers less than a year ago.

https://twitter.com/TurnbullMalcolm/status/574113681547489280

# ? Feb 24, 2016 00:36

Cartoon: Jun 20, 2008; poop

Zenithe posted:

Hey, so what happens to rent prices if property values go lower?

Depends on how big the crash is and what it does to the rest of the economy. It may even drive rents up as people abandon their now ludicrous home loans by defaulting.

The trouble with doing anything (changing negative gearing, altering CGT discounts) in the current housing market is you might get to be the one holding the package when the bubble bursts. It is quite savy of Malformed Turdball to preemptively blame the ALP for the inevitable housing deflation/crash. Although one of the things supporting the bubble is that Sydney is still a much more liveable city than the examples given of Hong Kong and Manhattan (despite the access to employment/culture available in the alternatives).

Makes that GST look pretty sweet now! :smugbird:

What the gently caress did Bernadi think he was doing? In what particular way is Shorten dishonest and a fraud? It was only going to end in a win for Shorten. Oh wait Bernadi is a clueless bozo! That explains everything.

Why is spending 2% of GDP on defence such a cast iron policy for the muppets?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-23/defence-white-paper-turnbull-sticks-to-abbott-pledges/7194480

quote:

Malcolm Turnbull sticks to Tony Abbott's defence spending pledges in long-awaited white paper By defence reporter Andrew Greene and political reporter Stephanie Anderson Updated about an hour ago

The Turnbull Government will commit to spending 2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) on defence within a decade in its long-awaited white paper.

After several delays and re-writes, the highly anticipated Defence White Paper will finally be publicly unveiled by the Prime Minister on Thursday in Canberra. The document outlines the Government's military and strategic vision and billions of dollars in spending to modernise the Navy and update Australia's ageing Collins-class fleet of submarines. The ABC has confirmed 12 new submarines will form the centrepiece of the white paper. Despite budgetary pressures, the Turnbull Government will stick to former prime minister Tony Abbott's commitment to spend 2 per cent of GDP on defence by 2023, the ABC has learnt. It is understood a significant proportion of the spending will be on big-ticket items such as the next fleet of submarines, new RAAF planes and replacing the Army's armoured vehicle fleet. The white paper will also detail the Federal Government's position on growing diplomatic tensions in the South China Sea, as Beijing continues its rapid military expansion in the contested waterway.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull today confirmed the planned spending, which equates to about $40 billion.

Mr Turnbull said the paper was fully costed and followed significant cuts to the defence budget carried out by the former Labor government. "Under Labor, defence spending as a share of GDP dropped to its lowest level since 1938," he said. "What we are committing to our defence resources � or defence resourcing � are dollar amounts and they are dollar amounts focused or determined to deliver the capabilities that we need. It does have the result of a higher level of spending on defence. We do live in more challenging times and it certainly will reach that 2 per cent of GDP level.(Wtf!? Since the break up of the Soviet Union Australia has never been in a less threatened position since 1946)"

Labor's defence spokesman David Feeney said the Opposition would support increasing spending, as long as it was fiscally responsible. "The challenge has always been for the Defence White Paper to set out that trajectory, and to do it in a way that it can become a bipartisan commitment," he said. "The 2 per cent has its origins in Labor Party policy and it's something we'll support so long as it can be set out in a way that is real and tangible."(Me Too! Me Too! ) Regional neighbours are expected to closely examine the language the Australian Government uses in references to the territorial dispute in the South China Sea. Australia's last Defence White Paper was released by Julia Gillard in 2013, and Mr Abbott promised to update the document within 18 months of being elected.

This may be worth watching:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-24/eddie-obeid-trial-jury-dismissed/7195254

quote:

Eddie Obeid trial jury dismissed at Sydney court Updated 11 minutes ago

The jury in the trial of former New South Wales Labor politician Eddie Obeid has been dismissed in Sydney.

Obeid had pleaded not guilty to wilful misconduct in public office over an approach to NSW Maritime Authority deputy CEO Steve Dunn in 2007 regarding restaurant leases in Circular Quay, with the intention of seeking a positive outcome on the leases.

More to come.

So if, to clear the people in the LNP 'unfairly' targeted by the rogue ICAC, Obeid has to be let off what does that do to the narrative around the corruption in the NSW branch of the ALP? This could be entirely procedural but given the Cunnen brouhaha and the attacks on the integrity of the ICAC recently it's not an entirely ridiculous line of speculation.

And a quick aside: How long before QANTAS chair lizard Joyce claims that the windfall profit due to the plunge in world fuel prices is due to private sector and specifically his great management? If ever their was a CEO who should wear a red nose 365 days of the year it's him.

# ? Feb 24, 2016 00:42

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 29, 2024 14:05

NPR Journalizard: Feb 14, 2008

Cartoon posted:

And a quick aside: How long before QANTAS chair lizard Joyce claims that the windfall profit due to the plunge in world fuel prices is due to private sector and specifically his great management? If ever their was a CEO who should wear a red nose 365 days of the year it's him.

quote:

But Alan Joyce insists the $688 million interim profit cannot be put down to oil or just good luck.

"There's more than fuel in this and it is transformation and it's the hard work we've been doing," Mr Joyce said.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-23/qantas-ceo-alan-joyce-denies-profit-jump-just-fuel-slump/7193236

negative 19 hours.

# ? Feb 24, 2016 00:46

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Auspol February: The NRL Really Screwed The Pooch

«‹›83 »