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Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx
The first general debate will be Hillary and Trump greeting each other warmly followed by them, hand in hand, taking turns going over how they'll bring 1,000 years of socialism to America.

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ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

DemeaninDemon posted:

The first general debate will be Hillary and Trump greeting each other warmly followed by them, hand in hand, taking turns going over how they'll bring 1,000 years of socialism to America.

Trump's argument will no doubt talk about how we need to think about socialism within the US before we can expand it outward though. A national socialism, if you will.

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx

ComradeCosmobot posted:

Trump's argument will no doubt talk about how we need to think about socialism within the US before we can expand it outward though. A national socialism, if you will.

We'll win this time, though. We have nukes.

Teriyaki Koinku
Nov 25, 2008

Bread! Bread! Bread!

Bread! BREAD! BREAD!
What are the chances of a major economic downturn or a terrorist attack on American soil before November? I could see an extraordinary event like one of those flipping people to Trump.

AShamefulDisplay
Jun 30, 2013

The current race for the GOP crown is fascinating for me. Trump is essentially upsetting all conventional wisdom (and especially in a way that Bernie is not), and all the pundits are searching for a way to explain why this New York elitist is taking a big old crap on the legacy of the Republican party, but none of them realize what the real reason is. Trump is where he's at because for years the Republican party has been courting the white working class by telling them the real problems with their lives is "welfare queens" and "illegals" and a lack of patriotism, and business is better than actual governance. None of these issues really reflect the reality of our post-industrial decline, but it speaks to the Republican base in a way that the only way forward is acute ideological purity. It's a vicious irony that the best exemplar of this racist, sexist, xenophobic analysis is best embodied by a notorious grifter who exploits our increasing fear of the future for his own personal gain. Since 2008 I've been hearing about how the Republicans would have won if only they had nominated a more conservative candidate. McCain wasn't conservative enough (even though he dragged Palin into the national spotlight). Romney wasn't conservative enough (even though he was pretty much Barry Goldwater reborn). And now they're falling for the epitome of everything they hate because he "says what's on his mind" and he's sticking it to the establishment. And they eat it all up because what Trump is saying confirms their darkest fears.

It's like watching tankies defend Pravda.

Your Dunkle Sans posted:

What are the chances of a major economic downturn or a terrorist attack on American soil before November? I could see an extraordinary event like one of those flipping people to Trump.

Actually shockingly high. China is due for a crash, the EU is in dissaray, and Wahhabists are super good at pushing westerner buttons. I really hope that Homeland Security is on their game right now...

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

Your Dunkle Sans posted:

What are the chances of a major economic downturn or a terrorist attack on American soil before November? I could see an extraordinary event like one of those flipping people to Trump.

I would at least think that Obama, and the people he's put in place, are more on the ball as far as addressing incoming terrorist threats on the scale of a 9/11, assuming that there was anything at all that could have been done to nip it in the bud.

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx

Your Dunkle Sans posted:

What are the chances of a major economic downturn or a terrorist attack on American soil before November? I could see an extraordinary event like one of those flipping people to Trump.

The fun part is what will cause said economic crash: oil and China!

Sylink
Apr 17, 2004

AShamefulDisplay posted:

The current race for the GOP crown is fascinating for me. Trump is essentially upsetting all conventional wisdom (and especially in a way that Bernie is not), and all the pundits are searching for a way to explain why this New York elitist is taking a big old crap on the legacy of the Republican party, but none of them realize what the real reason is. Trump is where he's at because for years the Republican party has been courting the white working class by telling them the real problems with their lives is "welfare queens" and "illegals" and a lack of patriotism, and business is better than actual governance. None of these issues really reflect the reality of our post-industrial decline, but it speaks to the Republican base in a way that the only way forward is acute ideological purity. It's a vicious irony that the best exemplar of this racist, sexist, xenophobic analysis is best embodied by a notorious grifter who exploits our increasing fear of the future for his own personal gain. Since 2008 I've been hearing about how the Republicans would have won if only they had nominated a more conservative candidate. McCain wasn't conservative enough (even though he dragged Palin into the national spotlight). Romney wasn't conservative enough (even though he was pretty much Barry Goldwater reborn). And now they're falling for the epitome of everything they hate because he "says what's on his mind" and he's sticking it to the establishment. And they eat it all up because what Trump is saying confirms their darkest fears.

It's like watching tankies defend Pravda.


Actually shockingly high. China is due for a crash, the EU is in dissaray, and Wahhabists are super good at pushing westerner buttons. I really hope that Homeland Security is on their game right now...

Trump succeeds because idiots want a fascist to solve their perceived problems and these same idiots are too unmotivated to make change in their own locale themselves.

Everyone wants someone to tell them they are right and everyone else is wrong, when in fact if your neighborhood is poo poo you should start with unfucking yourself first, even if a lot of externalities could be blamed.

Venom Snake
Feb 19, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo

BetterToRuleInHell posted:

Remember when USPol goons thought he wouldn't even enter the race? Ok, so he entered the race, but USPol goons knew he'd never release his financials. Ok, so he released his financials, but he's a joke and would never poll better than other candidates. Ok, so he's polling better but he's not going to pick up states. Ok, so he's picking up states but he's not going to pick up other candidates demographics. Ok, so he's getting those demographics...

Yeah, USPol has proven it doesn't know poo poo.

Trump has preformed awful at almost all the debates and has only come off as doing well because the GOP lives in a post facts world. The difference between the dem debates and GOP debates is night and day. There is also the fact Trump has alienated everyone who isn't a white man so he also has that issue. Trump doesn't have a snowballs chance in hell in the general because his demographic doesn't decide elections.

Tender Bender
Sep 17, 2004

Venom Snake posted:

Trump has preformed awful at almost all the debates and has only come off as doing well because the GOP lives in a post facts world. The difference between the dem debates and GOP debates is night and day. There is also the fact Trump has alienated everyone who isn't a white man so he also has that issue. Trump doesn't have a snowballs chance in hell in the general because his demographic doesn't decide elections.

The blacks love him, and frankly, we don't win anymore, so a lot of other people love him too. I heard this from someone just the other day, it's very interesting.

Sylink
Apr 17, 2004

He has thousands of friends who are the blacks they will come out and make america great again. Those beautiful blacks.

Slow Graffiti
Feb 1, 2003

Born of Frustration

Sylink posted:

He has thousands of friends who are the blacks they will come out and make america great again. Those beautiful blacks.

I hear there were hundreds of them cheering his name in the NJ streets the day the Freedom Tower was completed.

WhiskeyJuvenile
Feb 15, 2002

by Nyc_Tattoo

DemeaninDemon posted:

The fun part is what will cause said economic crash: oil and China!

China's economy imploding is going to make Trump's "China is killing us" platform seem kinda hollow though

shovelbum
Oct 21, 2010

Fun Shoe
A fascist candidate who focuses on running the minorities into camps is actually a shift to the left from the heartless international free trade Randroid stuff that's been walking around winning the base with the super fake evangelical act for a few decades.

The conservative base is obviously nationalist and xenophobic and their party should be too. The guy is literally talking about protectionist trade policies. Better a fascist grifter than a free-market fundamentalist probably.

edit: The "government hands off my Medicare!!!!" crowd doesn't demand austerity and doctrinaire economics, and it's good to see them abandoning those who do.

shovelbum fucked around with this message at 14:02 on Feb 24, 2016

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost
The doom and gloom on this thread is like icing on top or the Trump-brand cake. If you guys can't be happy about the fact that the GOP base has finally gone mad and placed an obvious donkey at the head of their ticket, then you all seriously need an attitude adjustment.

:toxx: Donald Trump will never be president.

blue squares
Sep 28, 2007

WhiskeyJuvenile posted:

China's economy imploding is going to make Trump's "China is killing us" platform seem kinda hollow though

He'll find a way to turn into a personal victory

shovelbum
Oct 21, 2010

Fun Shoe

Zeroisanumber posted:

The doom and gloom on this thread is like icing on top or the Trump-brand cake. If you guys can't be happy about the fact that the GOP base has finally gone mad and placed an obvious donkey at the head of their ticket, then you all seriously need an attitude adjustment.

:toxx: Donald Trump will never be president.

I think he will lose to Hillary but I also think that bringing angry populist nationalism back to the gloomy lockstep Randroid free-trade RNC world will be really good for the conservative movement.

The Kingfish
Oct 21, 2015


This thread is gonna be awesome when Trump starts gaining momentum in the general.

shovelbum
Oct 21, 2010

Fun Shoe

The Kingfish posted:

This thread is gonna be awesome when Trump starts gaining momentum in the general.

Yeah I wonder if bitter Bernie fans will refuse to vote for Clinton.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Riven
Apr 22, 2002

Slow Graffiti posted:

I hear there were hundreds of them cheering his name in the NJ streets the day the Freedom Tower was completed.

This needs to turn into a Chuck Norris/Bill Brasky-like thing.

I heard when Trump takes a poo poo, he flushes it straight into terrorist caves through a pipe network he had specially built for winning.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

shovelbum posted:

Yeah I wonder if bitter Bernie fans will refuse to vote for Clinton.

We had similar hard feelings back in 2008, but most Hillary people came around to Obama by the time the election rolled around, if only to keep Sarah Palin out of the White House.

Pirate Radar
Apr 18, 2008

You're not my Ruthie!
You're not my Debbie!
You're not my Sherry!

WhiskeyJuvenile posted:

China's economy imploding is going to make Trump's "China is killing us" platform seem kinda hollow though

China's own reaction to its economy imploding would probably not be quiet and restrained, so he'd still have plenty to talk about.

The Kingfish
Oct 21, 2015


shovelbum posted:

Yeah I wonder if bitter Bernie fans will refuse to vote for Clinton.

I'm not voting for her, but then again I don't live in one of the six or so states that actually matter.

Eggplant Squire
Aug 14, 2003


I'm sure there will be some Bernie fans that will not follow Clinton but there's no way that if he loses the primary he won't encourage his supporters to shift to voting for her.

Fried Chicken
Jan 9, 2011

Don't fry me, I'm no chicken!

shovelbum posted:

Yeah I wonder if bitter Bernie fans will refuse to vote for Clinton.

So long as it is a clean win I don't see that being an issue.

That said, I don't think this "Berniebros assaulted me and carved a B into my face!" poo poo is doing them any favors. There isn't any indication it is budging the needle at all and when it comes out as false it is just pissing people off. But I strongly suspect that's because of fuckwads like David Brock running around playing their own punching game.


Caveat to this: this morning the pundits are tittering about a possible Clinton-Bloomberg ticket. This is probably just empty headed assholes pumping out some bullshit to meet their horse race deadline or quotient of faux serious bullshit and not someone from the Clinton campaign placing it as a trial balloon. But it is also a scenario in which I can see the Bernie supporters staying home, and I'd find it hard to blame them

Fried Chicken fucked around with this message at 16:00 on Feb 24, 2016

Good Citizen
Aug 12, 2008

trump trump trump trump trump trump trump trump trump trump

The Kingfish posted:

This thread is gonna be awesome when Trump starts gaining momentum in the general.

It really really is. Trump still isn't winning the general but that first time there's a bump and it looks like he might is going to be beautiful.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

Good Citizen posted:

It really really is. Trump still isn't winning the general but that first time there's a bump and it looks like he might is going to be beautiful.

Personally I'm waiting for the convention.

Tesseraction
Apr 5, 2009

Radish posted:

I'm sure there will be some Bernie fans that will not follow Clinton but there's no way that if he loses the primary he won't encourage his supporters to shift to voting for her.

As people have pointed out, the demographic voting for Bernie are new voters and least-likely voters, so in that regard the ones who gently caress off are no big loss.

Anchor Wanker
May 14, 2015
Is it at all possible, assuming Cruz cans his run, that Rubio could rally Cruz's supporters and his Establishment people to get a majority over Trump? Are Cruz's people likely to go to Rubio over Trump? What if it was the other way around and Rubio dropped? Would the establishment support Cruz despite hating his guts?

Neither of these scenarios are likely, I'm just curious to know if they're even possible really.

Wicked Them Beats
Apr 1, 2007

Moralists don't really *have* beliefs. Sometimes they stumble on one, like on a child's toy left on the carpet. The toy must be put away immediately. And the child reprimanded.

Anchor Wanker posted:

Is it at all possible, assuming Cruz cans his run, that Rubio could rally Cruz's supporters and his Establishment people to get a majority over Trump? Are Cruz's people likely to go to Rubio over Trump? What if it was the other way around and Rubio dropped? Would the establishment support Cruz despite hating his guts?

Neither of these scenarios are likely, I'm just curious to know if they're even possible really.

It depends on if the assumption that Trump's ceiling is 30-40% holds. If that's true, then a 1-on-1 race means Trump loses.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Anchor Wanker posted:

Is it at all possible, assuming Cruz cans his run, that Rubio could rally Cruz's supporters and his Establishment people to get a majority over Trump? Are Cruz's people likely to go to Rubio over Trump? What if it was the other way around and Rubio dropped? Would the establishment support Cruz despite hating his guts?

Neither of these scenarios are likely, I'm just curious to know if they're even possible really.

The crossover from Cruz people to Rubio people probably isn't high enough to challenge Trump. At this point they're holding out hope that Trump stumbles badly before Super Tuesday, but holding out hope for Trump to self-destruct hasn't proved to be a winning strategy so far.

FowlTheOwl
Nov 5, 2008

O thou precious owl,
The wise Minervas only fowl
Similar to the Bernie supporters not supporting Hillary I wonder if Trump supporters will line up behind Rubio. As people have stated many Trump supporters are believers in the White dominance of power and after 8 years of Obama are they going to support a minority even if he comes with a R next to his name?

Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

bone shaking.
soul baking.

FowlTheOwl posted:

Similar to the Bernie supporters not supporting Hillary I wonder if Trump supporters will line up behind Rubio. As people have stated many Trump supporters are believers in the White dominance of power and after 8 years of Obama are they going to support a minority even if he comes with a R next to his name?

Why would trump supporters line up behind anyone else? He's got the nomination virtually locked up. The trend of him having more votes than the rest of the field combined is going to continue.

The question is will Cruz/Rubio supporters line up behind trump? And the answer is yes that more will line up behind him than the other guy.

Alec Bald Snatch
Sep 12, 2012

by exmarx

computer parts posted:


The closest margin Democrats had was in 1996, when whites went 46-44 in favor of Dole. The farthest was Obama in 2012. Can you guess the second farthest? Kerry, in 2004. He lost whites 58-41, compared with Obama who lost 59-39 in 2012.

Dukakis lost whites 40/60, and Mondale lost 'em 34/66.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

“You don’t win the nomination by how many states you win.”

— Sen. Marco Rubio on Fox and Friends this morning. Someone wanna tell him?

His Divine Shadow
Aug 7, 2000

I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.

shovelbum posted:

A fascist candidate who focuses on running the minorities into camps is actually a shift to the left from the heartless international free trade Randroid stuff that's been walking around winning the base with the super fake evangelical act for a few decades.

The conservative base is obviously nationalist and xenophobic and their party should be too. The guy is literally talking about protectionist trade policies. Better a fascist grifter than a free-market fundamentalist probably.

edit: The "government hands off my Medicare!!!!" crowd doesn't demand austerity and doctrinaire economics, and it's good to see them abandoning those who do.

It says alot about randroids and free marketeers when hitler is the better choice.

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx

zoux posted:

“You don’t win the nomination by how many states you win.”

— Sen. Marco Rubio on Fox and Friends this morning. Someone wanna tell him?

He's the worst robot ever if he can't do math.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/702497921787244545

Cruz was up by THIRTY a month ago.

Gin and Juche
Apr 3, 2008

The Highest Judge of Paradise
Shiki Eiki
YAMAXANADU

DemeaninDemon posted:

He's the worst robot ever if he can't do math.

It's just math that he does as a Republican to make himself feel better.

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ReidRansom
Oct 25, 2004


shovelbum posted:

Yeah I wonder if bitter Bernie fans will refuse to vote for Clinton.

Unless they live in one of like 3 or 4 states, it makes not one whit of difference.

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