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Silver2195
Apr 4, 2012

ErIog posted:

It's also not a controversial opinion among most Japanese politicians who can trace their lineage back to people in positions of power during the war. For many of them this is a personal issue.

The grammar here is ambiguous. Are you saying war crimes denial is uncontroversial among most Japanese politicians, because most of them can trace their lineage to WWII-era officials, or are you saying that it's uncontroversial specifically among most of the subset of Japanese politicians who can trace their lineage to WWII-era officials?

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Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

Trivia posted:

Off topic, but can anyone explain why the yen is getting stronger? I'm tempted to send some cash home but not sure exactly when to do it.

Here's the BBC's explanation:

quote:

The sudden rise in value of the Japanese yen is being driven by problems elsewhere; in Germany, the United States and China. When the world economy runs in to trouble, investors head for "safe havens" and Japan is one of them.

ErIog
Jul 11, 2001

:nsacloud:

Silver2195 posted:

The grammar here is ambiguous. Are you saying war crimes denial is uncontroversial among most Japanese politicians, because most of them can trace their lineage to WWII-era officials, or are you saying that it's uncontroversial specifically among most of the subset of Japanese politicians who can trace their lineage to WWII-era officials?

I'm saying that war crimes denial is not uncommon among Japanese politicians, most of whom are right wing. Some of them probably deny for reasons of nationalism, but for some of them there's definitely the extra motivation of "don't say mean things about my direct ancestors."

There's not as much turnover of the political ruling class in Japan compared to other countries. So it's somewhat harder for the current ruling class to come to terms with the past than the general population. If Japanese politics was less dynastic in the post-war era I think the domestic political discourse on the topic of war crimes would be different.

I'm not saying it's the only factor or that it's 100% true of all right wing Diet members. I'm just pointing it out as one of the important factors to consider when thinking about why it has been so difficult for the Japanese government to move past these issues.

ErIog fucked around with this message at 05:15 on Feb 25, 2016

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/02/japan-population-shrinks/471246/

quote:


Writing in The Atlantic in 2011, Adam Pasick delivered the startling factoid that sales of adult diapers in Japan were set to exceed that of children’s diapers by the year 2020. According to Japan’s biggest diaper maker, he added, the transition actually happened in 2011.

That Japan’s population is aging is hardly a secret. But the speed with which it is happening was laid bare on Friday when the country’s census revealed the population had shrunk by nearly a million people in just five years. As many noted, it was the first decline since Japan’s census started in the 1920s.

“Some areas have felt the dips more keenly than others,” wrote Amy Wang at Quartz. “While Tokyo and seven other prefectures saw an uptick in population, the remaining 39 saw the opposite; Fukushima, hit by an earthquake and tsunami in 2011, posted the biggest loss—roughly 115,000 people.”

Of course, Japan is not alone. Plenty of other countries, particularly across Europe and Asia, are aging. The global population is getting older as well. In the United States, after two decades of hovering above or at two births per woman, the birthrate dipped below that threshold in 2010 and has continued to drop ever since.

As my colleague Olga Khazan noted in 2014, the difference is that America remains a nation of immigrants, which helps keep the country (and its workforce) young.

"Immigrants not only help inflate our overall population, but they also tend to have more children than Americans do. Mexican-American women, for example, have 2.5 children on average, and white American women have 1.8. And it’s immigrants who will contribute the most to U.S. population growth in coming decades."


Japanese officials, who have trudged down an increasingly nationalistic path in recent years, have touted the country’s homogeneity. Accordingly, immigration has been limited, and the foreign population, as Joshua Keating points out, is only 2 percent.

That isn’t expected to change dramatically soon, either. According to the government, 40 percent of the country will be 65 years or older by the year 2060.

Randallteal
May 7, 2006

The tears of time
Trivial, but my first thought was that there will be lots of fun urban exploring opportunities in abandoned country towns if the population really ends up shrinking by about a third, especially if the remaining population migrates to the big cities.

Cliff Racer
Mar 24, 2007

by Lowtax

Randallteal posted:

Trivial, but my first thought was that there will be lots of fun urban exploring opportunities in abandoned country towns if the population really ends up shrinking by about a third, especially if the remaining population migrates to the big cities.

There already are!

Kenishi
Nov 18, 2010
LDP to Tackle 'Taboo' of Expanding Foreign Labor Force

quote:

Japan’s ruling party kicks off a debate this month on whether to expand the pool of foreign workers to cope with a graying, shrinking population, challenging a longstanding “taboo” on immigration.

This is pretty major. Its inevitable that Japan is going to have to start importing labor to meet the labor demands that will outstrip their current populace, but I wasn't expecting anyone to touch this issue for at least another 5-10 years.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

Trivia posted:

Off topic, but can anyone explain why the yen is getting stronger? I'm tempted to send some cash home but not sure exactly when to do it.

I think it's because no Japanese government would ever survive pursuing a policy of sustained devaluation of the yen. If the yen gets stronger, do the Japanese conglomerates make more money, or less?

ErIog
Jul 11, 2001

:nsacloud:

My Imaginary GF posted:

I think it's because no Japanese government would ever survive pursuing a policy of sustained devaluation of the yen. If the yen gets stronger, do the Japanese conglomerates make more money, or less?

Japanese conglomerates make more money, nominally, due to the value of their foreign transactions being reported in yen. Japanese exports also probably sell better when the yen is weaker. So I don't know what you mean by "no Japanese government would ever survive." That's the opposite of reality. Abe has been taking a beating since the yen strengthened a few weeks ago.

I do think the negative interest rates are necessary, though. Domestic demand has shrunk due to falling wages and a declining population. Japanese banks are sitting on a lot of dead cash. The only way for that money to be useful in the economy is if it's not parked in the BOJ.

ErIog fucked around with this message at 08:31 on Mar 7, 2016

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

ErIog posted:

Japanese conglomerates make more money, nominally, due to the value of their foreign transactions being reported in yen. Japanese exports also probably sell better when the yen is weaker. So I don't know what you mean by "no Japanese government would ever survive." That's the opposite of reality.

Abe has been taking a beating since the yen strengthened a few weeks ago.

I think the issue is more with debt, than it is with exports. When you've got 230% debt-to-GDP, your GDP ain't gonna grow by reducing the value of your debt.

ErIog
Jul 11, 2001

:nsacloud:

My Imaginary GF posted:

I think the issue is more with debt, than it is with exports. When you've got 230% debt-to-GDP, your GDP ain't gonna grow by reducing the value of your debt.

Is your claim that GDP will grow if the value of the debt increases due to deflation? I don't see how that does any good either since deflation just means GDP growth has to be that much more vigorous to offset the impact of deflation.

So yes, I think GDP has way more of an opportunity to grow with moderate inflation than with moderate deflation.

Nearly half of all of Japan's government bonds are held by those conglomerates and about a quarter are held by the BOJ itself. The vast majority of the holders of Japan's public debt were not happy when it was like 90 yen to the dollar a few years ago. So I'd like you to source your claim that public debt is a concern for Japanese conglomerates.

ErIog fucked around with this message at 08:43 on Mar 7, 2016

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

ErIog posted:

Is your claim that GDP will grow if the value of the debt increases due to deflation? I don't see how that does any good either since deflation just means GDP growth has to be that much more vigorous to offset the impact of deflation.

So yes, I think GDP has way more of an opportunity to grow with moderate inflation than with moderate deflation.

Nearly half of all of Japan's government bonds are held by those conglomerates and about a quarter are held by the BOJ itself. The vast majority of the holders of Japan's public debt were not happy when it was like 90 yen to the dollar a few years ago. So I'd like you to source your claim that public debt is a concern for Japanese conglomerates.

That's my point, though. Japan can only shrink its debt by engaging in a devaluation so massive that to do so would cause those conglomerates to go belly-up. Therefore, Japan will continue to pay out on its debt service obligations no matter how strong the yen becomes. Their debt-to-GDP is so high, and their immigration rates so low, that any decrease in the value of the yen will fail to produce significant enough growth to offset the decrease in GDP.

ErIog
Jul 11, 2001

:nsacloud:

My Imaginary GF posted:

Japan can only shrink its debt by engaging in a devaluation so massive that to do so would cause those conglomerates to go belly-up.

What are you talking about? The conglomerates do better when the value of the yen is low. They want cheap yen. Like I said, when it was 90 yen to the dollar the conglomerates were all moaning about having to post overseas losses and not being able to compete with China on price. I guess if it was 180 yen to the dollar they might dislike that due to the cost of oil and other imported raw materials, but they seem pretty happy anywhere between 105 and 125.

I guess in a theoretical scenario where currency devaluation happened overnight it would have a pretty significant impact, but I don't think Japan is in danger of having hyperinflation anytime soon.

Japan's public debt is held almost entirely domestically. So I don't see what the doomsday scenario is for the debt causing an implosion of the Japanese economy. If push came to shove they could print yen over time to pay off bond-holders as they became due. The thing is, though, that demand is so low in the Japanese economy that the new money would end up being parked in reserves or rolled over into new government bonds just like all the other dead money is now.

People really shouldn't worry about the DEBT so much because that money is at least circulating through the economy. It's going to pensioners, paving the inaka, and paying for healthcare. It's stimulating what little demand actually exists in the economy. The bigger problem is the dead money being parked doing nothing, and that's what the BOJ's negative interest rate scheme is trying to fix.

Please walk me through your fantasy scenario of how the public debt, 90% of which is held domestically by entities very happy to have parked money with the government since they had no plans to use it anyway, craters the Japanese economy. I'd really like to know how the mechanics of that work because it doesn't make any technical economic sense to me.

ErIog fucked around with this message at 09:44 on Mar 7, 2016

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

So today the cabinet approved a new plan in which the 6-month remarriage wait time for women will be reduced to 100 days. Also if a woman can get proof from a doctor saying she's not pregnant then she can remarry before the 100 days are over. Also the only reason even this much has been done is because it was literally forced on the current administration by a supreme court ruling.

Pompous Rhombus
Mar 11, 2007

Chomskyan posted:

So today the cabinet approved a new plan in which the 6-month remarriage wait time for women will be reduced to 100 days. Also if a woman can get proof from a doctor saying she's not pregnant then she can remarry before the 100 days are over. Also the only reason even this much has been done is because it was literally forced on the current administration by a supreme court ruling.

happy international women's day, i guess :toot:

ArchangeI
Jul 15, 2010

Chomskyan posted:

So today the cabinet approved a new plan in which the 6-month remarriage wait time for women will be reduced to 100 days. Also if a woman can get proof from a doctor saying she's not pregnant then she can remarry before the 100 days are over. Also the only reason even this much has been done is because it was literally forced on the current administration by a supreme court ruling.

So is there a remarriage waiting time for men in Japan?

No, no, let me guess...

Forums Terrorist
Dec 8, 2011

japan to abolish tithe, weregild, divine right of kings

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Pompous Rhombus posted:

happy international women's day, i guess :toot:

If you want another example of how far women still have to go in Japan, take a gander at how fast birth control pills were approved for the Japanese market versus Viagra.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Chomskyan posted:

So today the cabinet approved a new plan in which the 6-month remarriage wait time for women will be reduced to 100 days. Also if a woman can get proof from a doctor saying she's not pregnant then she can remarry before the 100 days are over. Also the only reason even this much has been done is because it was literally forced on the current administration by a supreme court ruling.

So the Supreme Court can make them do this, but can't make them fix their malapportionment?

Nessus
Dec 22, 2003

After a Speaker vote, you may be entitled to a valuable coupon or voucher!



Badger of Basra posted:

So the Supreme Court can make them do this, but can't make them fix their malapportionment?
It sounds like it's a case where the malapportionment requires a process get taken, and the courts can't compel the legislature to actually execute that process, just yell at them for their continued gently caress-up.

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

Badger of Basra posted:

So the Supreme Court can make them do this, but can't make them fix their malapportionment?

They can but haven't. On malapportionment, the Supreme Court has mostly issued what could be considered warnings.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-JRTB-15504

e: After reading a bit more it looks like the re-marriage wait time decision was also a "state of unconstitionality" kind of situation. Which means it wasnt struck down immediately by the court. Instead the government is given time to bring the laws into complaince with the constitution. But how they're brought into complaince is left up to the government. Here there's a bit less leeway since the court specifically mentioned reducing the wait time to 100 days.

Red and Black fucked around with this message at 03:18 on Mar 9, 2016

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/707298621646106624?lang=ja

Dr.Radical
Apr 3, 2011

Cliff Racer posted:

There already are!

Yup. Plenty of boarded up danchi all over Tokyo and the Tokyo area. I've never been in them so I'm not sure if there's anything interesting inside but I would bet that it's worth a look. Anyone go into any of these?

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Not sure why the American servicemen in Okinawa can't seem to stop raping locals

Sheep
Jul 24, 2003
Crime rate among USFJ members still drasrically lower than that of the locals.
http://www.okinawa.usmc.mil/Documents/Ethos.pdf

Edit: same for foreigners in general in Japan if you bother to look at the stats from the MOJ.

Sheep fucked around with this message at 16:13 on Mar 14, 2016

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy

shrike82 posted:

Not sure why the American servicemen in Okinawa can't seem to stop raping locals

Nah, the comfort women are doing this willingly, you got it all wrong :v:

Wittgen
Oct 13, 2012

We have decided to decline your offer of a butt kicking.

Sheep posted:

Crime rate among USFJ members still drasrically lower than that of the locals.
http://www.okinawa.usmc.mil/Documents/Ethos.pdf

At what rate do USFJ criminals face the local justice system versus locals?

Sheep
Jul 24, 2003

Wittgen posted:

At what rate do USFJ criminals face the local justice system versus locals?

According to the Status of Forces Agreement, all service members face the Japanese justice system if the Japanese authorities make an indictment. The only differences are if the Japanese authorities do not arrest a US service member off-base, then the US retains custody until an indictment is filed (at which point they are transferred to Japanese custody) - I imagine this is to get around the bullshit daiyo kangoku system and I have no qualms whatsoever with such an arrangement personally because daiyo kangoku is, again, bullshit.

Sheep fucked around with this message at 17:33 on Mar 14, 2016

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Given the authority's reluctance in actually indicting military personnel, these statistics don't really mean much.

7c Nickel
Apr 27, 2008
Sure the facts don't bear me out, but what you fail to realize is AMERIKKKA!

ookiimarukochan
Apr 4, 2011

7c Nickel posted:

Sure the facts don't bear me out, but what you fail to realize is AMERIKKKA!

As problematic a viewpoint that is, it's better than actually trusting official Japanese government statistics given how hilariously fiddled they tend to be.

7c Nickel
Apr 27, 2008

ookiimarukochan posted:

As problematic a viewpoint that is, it's better than actually trusting official Japanese government statistics given how hilariously fiddled they tend to be.

Sure, but they tend to be fiddled in the direction of proving that there are TERRIFYING FOREIGN CRIMINAL SYNDICATES that cause all the problems. I really don't think there much point in respecting a guy who's opening gambit is "Not sure why the American servicemen in Okinawa can't seem to stop raping locals ".

Sheep
Jul 24, 2003

shrike82 posted:

Given the authority's reluctance in actually indicting military personnel, these statistics don't really mean much.

No you're right, the Japanese authorities don't indict SOFA personnel on a regular basis because of reasons which you have clearly laid out and supported with credible evidence, for example:

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

Sheep posted:

Crime rate among USFJ members still drasrically lower than that of the locals.
http://www.okinawa.usmc.mil/Documents/Ethos.pdf

Edit: same for foreigners in general in Japan if you bother to look at the stats from the MOJ.
It looks like these are Japanese govt statistics. So I'm assuming these rates don't include crimes committed on base against other military members and other cases not handled by the Japanese authorities?

Sheep
Jul 24, 2003
Good point. While I can't say for sure, it stands to reason that crimes committed on-base are handled by the military. I spent half an hour looking for on-base crime statistics via Google and couldn't find anything - this was as close as I got and it is too ambiguous in that regard.

Edit: well after more searching I did find this but it also states that the data is tracked by the Japanese government without stating whether that includes on-base crimes or not, and again I'd be inclined to lean towards 'not'. It looks like an unresolvable argument at this point unless someone can find on-base crime statistics somewhere.

Sheep fucked around with this message at 10:42 on Mar 15, 2016

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

lol

一般社員の7割「仕事以外で上司と付き合いたくない」
http://www.asahi.com/articles/ASJ3H52S9J3HUTFK00B.html

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Continuing the trend of US military sexually assaulting Japanese -

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/03/19/navy-arrest-groping-japan/82008926/

quote:

A U.S. Navy officer who was arrested Friday on charges of groping and punching a Japanese woman on a commercial air flight from the United States has been released to U.S. custody.

A spokesperson for U.S. Naval Forces-Japan said a Navy lieutenant assigned to Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron Five One (HSM-51), based at the Atsugi Naval Air Facility, Japan, was handed over to U.S. authorities late Saturday under terms of the Status of Forces Agreement between the U.S. and Japanese governments.

According to Japanese press reports, the officer was arrested in an alleged assault on a 19-year-old female college student while on a flight from San Diego to Japan.

It was the second high-profile arrest of a U.S. serviceman for sexually related offenses in Japan in less than a week and could further complicate efforts to relocate a key U.S. airbase on the island of Okinawa.

Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

政府が「共産党は破防法調査対象」と答弁書を閣議決定

My attempt at a translation of the headline: Government says "Japanese Communist Party the primary concern subject of Anti-Subversive Activities Act based investigations" in written explanation produced by cabinet

Red and Black fucked around with this message at 07:26 on Mar 23, 2016

LimburgLimbo
Feb 10, 2008
Where are you getting the "primary concern" part?

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Red and Black
Sep 5, 2011

LimburgLimbo posted:

Where are you getting the "primary concern" part?

対象

"Primary concern" seems like a less alarmist translation than "target"

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