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Wait, didn't the Australian real estate sector already blow up like a year ago when China dropped imports? Or are we talking about the actual cities now and not the Oz versions of Fort McMurray.
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Feb 25, 2016 03:18
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Tigntink posted:Went to a fancy art school. They told us day one that only 5% of artists over all ever live off their art earnings. Was an actual good art school and most of my class mates are making a living off their art. One of them even made it on a decently popular TV show recently! A couple are showing at major museums and one has her art on wine bottles. Really good working artist teachers who taught us new skills to apply. Class size - only like 8 people graduated from my painting program and like 12 from my traditional printing program. Every one of us was required to take a dual major for maximum learning. Welp pack it in folks, Tigntink played Anecdote which trumps Generalisation. Game's over. E: oh poo poo, it was Anecdote+Humblebrag. FATALITY Weatherman fucked around with this message at 05:37 on Feb 25, 2016 |
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Feb 25, 2016 05:21
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The real question about the real estate bubble is: how can an enterprising young Australian like myself profit from this approaching disaster? Develop some sort of catchment device for all the baby boomer tears?
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Feb 25, 2016 06:09
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Hocus Pocus posted:The real question about the real estate bubble is: how can an enterprising young Australian like myself profit from this approaching disaster? Develop some sort of catchment device for all the baby boomer tears? If you do it well, you can have Michael Lewis write a book about you and Adam McKay make a movie about you. Or, whomever the Australian versions of those two guys are.
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Feb 25, 2016 07:11
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There's definitely a bubble, but it's not as if there's going to be a crash any time soon. (Don't own a house, have a vested interest in prices dropping). Employment is strong, Australians on a whole are ahead of their mortgages by something like two years, interest rates are low. I sincerely doubt you're going to see a hard landing.
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Feb 25, 2016 07:25
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Hocus Pocus posted:The real question about the real estate bubble is: how can an enterprising young Australian like myself profit from this approaching disaster? Develop some sort of catchment device for all the baby boomer tears? As a renter, I'll just quote Lenin and say "The worse the better." EDIT: Unrelated, but farewell Dick Smith's Electronics! At least your (former) executives got their bonuses. Sic Semper Goon fucked around with this message at 08:56 on Feb 25, 2016 |
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Feb 25, 2016 08:21
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Weatherman posted:Welp pack it in folks, Tigntink played Anecdote which trumps Generalisation. Game's over. Wasn't really intended that way. More like : There are good art schools out there that don't completely deceive the incoming students.
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Feb 25, 2016 08:51
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KingSlime posted:I can understand why very easily, and you touched upon it. Bright-eyed naive high school graduates or people looking to better their lives + deceptive and aggressive marketing materials make for a bad, and possibly exploitative, combination. No it's definitely the former. I racked up 45k in debt before saying fuckit and leaving for an offered job. I even did the GWM method and did my freshman year at a local college with a full scholarship (where I should have stayed, but hindsight is 20/20) to get the fundamentals out of the way. The school outright lied about job placement rates, expected pay for graduates, and spent a much larger amount of our fees on impressive tech and buildings than they did finding and maintaining competent teaching staff. If somehow magically I could have known at 18 what I know now at 34 with 13 years of working in games, yes I would know it was a rip off, but that's a high standard to expect from an 18 year old. *edit* and as someone who has since taught or befriended teachers at these type of schools, it's nearly impossible to fail a student, because then the parents would stop cosigning those sweet tuition loans. It's objectively a case of predatory schools with the slightest contribution of students who could maybe do a bit more introspection or research before deciding on that as their area of study. poopinmymouth fucked around with this message at 11:33 on Feb 25, 2016 |
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Feb 25, 2016 11:30
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Hocus Pocus posted:The real question about the real estate bubble is: how can an enterprising young Australian like myself profit from this approaching disaster? Develop some sort of catchment device for all the baby boomer tears? This is how I profit from it, reading these articles that pop up at least 10 times a year http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/re...22acfb0eb21e0aa http://www.news.com.au/finance/real...99ef07ee541f8dc Basically people who bought an investment property, lucked out with it increasing value dramatically then used the equity that appeared overnight as security against another loan for another investment that increased in value and then used the equity that appeared overnight as security on another loan.... You get the idea.
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Feb 25, 2016 11:36
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How do they pay all of those concurrent mortgages, though? Do they just keep borrowing against new equity? What happens if prices dip?
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Feb 25, 2016 16:56
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Not a Children posted:What happens if prices dip? what indeed
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Feb 25, 2016 17:06
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You can bet against housing by shorting reits. (or even just selling if they're something you hold). No idea what fees are incurred by shorting for a person at home, but those will definitely affect what time horizon you have to make a prediction for.
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Feb 25, 2016 19:26
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Not a Children posted:How do they pay all of those concurrent mortgages, though? Do they just keep borrowing against new equity? What happens if prices dip? BWM gold happens. So say you have an Australian with 5 x $1m houses. He has 20% equity with his hard saved $1m invested in the properties and $4m worth of mortgages secured against the properties. He thinking things are sweet because the gains he can get. He's paying $13,000 per month in interest and manages to collect $10,000 per month in rent. The difference is a $3000 write off of which the tax man sends back the equivalent of $1200/month. Now the bubble bursts with prices going down 10% losing $500k in equity. The banks don't get bothered as the interest keeps getting paid. The collapse gets worse with prices dropping 20% so he effectively has no equity, it's not a problem except two tenants lose their jobs and can't pay rent. Now he can't afford to pay $7000 per month in interest. The bank starts charging large penalty fees for missing payments. The interest charged on the unpaid interest is at 23% APR. This can go on for months or a year or more until the bank is forced to foreclose and realise their loss selling into a low price market. Even if prices only dropped 10% the bank will get nervous about not having 20% equity and might start charging a higher interest rate based on less than 20% equity. Devian666 fucked around with this message at 20:07 on Feb 25, 2016 |
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Feb 25, 2016 19:52
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Jeffrey of YOSPOS posted:You can bet against housing by shorting reits. (or even just selling if they're something you hold). No idea what fees are incurred by shorting for a person at home, but those will definitely affect what time horizon you have to make a prediction for. Best bet is probably just to save a lot so when it all comes crashing down you can lowball someone who just got divorced, had a spouse die or needs to move.
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Feb 25, 2016 20:10
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Hashtag Banterzone posted:Best bet is probably just to save a lot so when it all comes crashing down you can lowball someone who just got divorced, had a spouse die or needs to move. Why not all three.
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Feb 25, 2016 22:08
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I still don't see a scenario that triggers a hard landing? It's not an inevitability.
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Feb 26, 2016 02:42
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I dunno, 2008 happened and all. That alone should give you some pause. It's not an inevitability? Sure, but self fullfilling panics, collapse in derivatives and governments reacting with austerity happens.
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Feb 26, 2016 07:31
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I mean apart from the two situations and markets being totally different then sure. Australian default rates are extremely, extremely low. On the whole Australian home owners are two years ahead on their mortgages. Employment is strong. I have seen no cogent analysis beyond "oh it could happen!!!" Of course. But how?
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Feb 26, 2016 08:49
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CelestialScribe posted:I mean apart from the two situations and markets being totally different then sure.
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Feb 26, 2016 13:22
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Renegret posted:Yeah I bet back in your day they still used tokens, baby boomer From a few pages back, but my city is old school and still uses tokens (and it's annoying as gently caress).
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Feb 26, 2016 13:49
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And today in 'It Came From Reddit' - Boyfriend of two years is in over $350,000.00 debt, maxed out five credit card, and has -$500.00 in his bank account...quote:I've been with my boyfriend for two years now. He just bought a foreclosure to flip in a nice neighborhood. It's going to be worth a lot more than he bought it for when he's done, but plans on living in it for about five years. He has over $100,000.00 to pay in student loans, seven maxed out credit cards, and the debts go on. His car was provided by his parents and he has a regular desk job that makes about $45,000 a year. I am 25 and he's 27.
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Feb 26, 2016 15:33
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quote:almost like the man in the relationship 
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Feb 26, 2016 15:39
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I raised an eyebrow at that. A bunch of people in the thread have already honed in on that comment, haha.
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Feb 26, 2016 15:51
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froglet posted:And today in 'It Came From Reddit' - Boyfriend of two years is in over $350,000.00 debt, maxed out five credit card, and has -$500.00 in his bank account... She already knows what the answer is but wants to hear it from someone else 
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Feb 26, 2016 16:05
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froglet posted:And today in 'It Came From Reddit' - Boyfriend of two years is in over $350,000.00 debt, maxed out five credit card, and has -$500.00 in his bank account... Ugh, this reads like someone made sure to check every single bad-with-money-boyfriend cliché from a list  No way this is real. And the "I'm really confused what should I do you guys" at the end... yeah, no.
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Feb 26, 2016 16:16
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Would, "I almost feel like the man in the relationship, historically speaking" work better? A lot of women still want the man to be the financial rock in a relationship. My wife makes way more than me, but somehow I'm the person who steers the financial barge. CombatInformatiker posted:Ugh, this reads like someone made sure to check every single bad-with-money-boyfriend cliché from a list It could be real. It sounds like he was normal when they met. If it sounds dubious just replace 'house-flipping' with 'heroin' and it becomes even more believable.
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Feb 26, 2016 16:25
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Krispy Kareem posted:Would, "I almost feel like the man in the relationship, historically speaking" work better? At least you don't have to put a new heating system in heroin before you flip it for a tidy profit.
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Feb 26, 2016 18:18
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We still doing humble brag nominations? http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3763545&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=2#post456711610 johnny sack posted:I paid $20k for pre-school/daycare for my kids last year. That's as much as college tuition/room at most places. I haven't thought anything like that. I am thankful that your daughter has not started making GBS threads herself to death.
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Feb 26, 2016 19:18
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r0ck0 posted:We still doing humble brag nominations? That's not humblebrag, that's being an idiot who can't tell that someone is telling a joke.
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Feb 26, 2016 19:35
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CelestialScribe posted:I mean apart from the two situations and markets being totally different then sure. In every crash no one can identify the exact event that started it. It's likely a number of bad events that have a financial cascade of defaults from people in over leveraged positions. When enough happen that prices start dropping in a market and that triggers more selling the situation escalates. So there is a property bubble in New Zealand. In the past, and currently, Traditionally the bubbles are managed so at worst the prices drop a little or stay flat for years until reality catches up with the prices. So a crash won't necessarily happen, but that doesn't mean that it can't. Warning signs to look for in a crash. - People think a crash can't happen so they pour more money into the market. The biggest warning sign is when journalists start talking about "new economics". - The reason people pour money into the market because they think prices will go up forever - Too much money is borrowed so people have over leveraged positions so any price drop has a devastating effect and forces them to sell - People start investing in markets who know nothing about the market (or worse illiterate people were investing in the Chinese stock market) It boils down to people putting everything on the line for what is effectively a bet. Some get lucky and do well and others put their bet on right before a crash happens and lose everything. When there are warning signs of a bubble be careful when dealing with that market.
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Feb 26, 2016 21:06
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A crash wont happen without a liquidity shock. People can be massively leveraged without a problem as long as rates stay low. So either there needs to be a reduction in their incomes (recession, health problems, etc) or an increase in interest rates (macroeconomics).
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Feb 26, 2016 23:10
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froglet posted:And today in 'It Came From Reddit' - Boyfriend of two years is in over $350,000.00 debt, maxed out five credit card, and has -$500.00 in his bank account... I really don't understand why people can't get over the cultural stigma of bankruptcy and just declare it in this situation. It's the only logical choice, even it doesn't discharge the student loans.
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Feb 26, 2016 23:17
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Monaghan posted:I really don't understand why people can't get over the cultural stigma of bankruptcy and just declare it in this situation. It's the only logical choice, even it doesn't discharge the student loans. This guy is completely convinced he's a financial wizard. He won't declare bankruptcy until he realises he's drowning and he's alienated everyone he could mooch off.
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Feb 27, 2016 03:37
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Leverage in investing has the same effect whether you're leveraged on stocks or real estate: it magnifies gains, and magnifies losses by a roughly equivalent amount. There is nothing special about investment property or mortgages that changes that simple fact. The problem with using the equity in one house to leverage yourself further by buying a mortgage on additional houses is that it leaves you with no "cushion" to absorb any kind of a loss, which remember is magnified by the leverage. It's particularly BWM because people tend to buy similar properties in a close geographical area, exposing themselves to massive amounts of correlated risk. In other words, if one property goes down in value, it's very VERY likely that all the other properties will drop at the same time, usually causing financial ruin. It's the opposite of diversification, it's magnification of risk. Leverage is a dangerous thing, and needs to be respected no matter what form it takes.
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Feb 27, 2016 03:46
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I Like Jell-O posted:Leverage in investing has the same effect whether you're leveraged on stocks or real estate: it magnifies gains, and magnifies losses by a roughly equivalent amount. There is nothing special about investment property or mortgages that changes that simple fact. The problem with using the equity in one house to leverage yourself further by buying a mortgage on additional houses is that it leaves you with no "cushion" to absorb any kind of a loss, which remember is magnified by the leverage. / 
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Feb 27, 2016 03:56
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Can't you just declare bankruptcy if there's a crash though? That seems like it would insulate you from the worst of the downside. If you've been wisely channeling the profits to a trusted intermediary(eg best friend property management LLC), you'd probably still come out pretty well. If you plan on doing it a few times in a lifetime, chances are one of those times the market won't crash before you cash out.
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Feb 27, 2016 04:01
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Jeffrey of YOSPOS posted:Can't you just declare bankruptcy if there's a crash though? That seems like it would insulate you from the worst of the downside. If you've been wisely channeling the profits to a trusted intermediary(eg best friend property management LLC), you'd probably still come out pretty well. If you plan on doing it a few times in a lifetime, chances are one of those times the market won't crash before you cash out. Well yeah, but we're talking about what causes a crash. A bunch of people declaring bankruptcy in similar situations causes banks to write off those bad loans and then poo poo happens.
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Feb 27, 2016 05:13
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I have leveraged the camera by 30 degrees, pray I do not reverse that leverage! (I totally will with the next cut)
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Feb 27, 2016 10:14
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CannonFodder posted:I have leveraged the camera by 30 degrees, pray I do not reverse that leverage! (I totally will with the next cut) *shoots the leg off a cow inexplicably*
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Feb 27, 2016 11:47
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Reddit is truly a goldmine. Was I [23f] wrong to secretly save money? My husband [24] of 5 years is upset and feels used quote:Upto about 6 months ago I was a stay at home wife with no kids. This is something that my husband and I both prefered. We have been planning to move out to a different state this spring/summer.
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Feb 27, 2016 17:30
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