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Harlock
Jan 15, 2006

Tap "A" to drink!!!

RINOs, evangelicals openly weep at the confirmation of God King Trump who manages to get blasted in the general.

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zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Schnorkles posted:

Interesting sidenote: Rubio as of February 1st was down to only 5m on hand [down from 10.5m at the end of December] and his rate of donations did not increase at all during January.

The Feb. filling will be reallllyy interesting as it appears that its monthly now.

Well he's supposed to pick up Jeb's donor base but since this is the cycle of unsupposed to, we'll see.

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven

mike12345 posted:

While America is getting ready for Trumpmania, look at what's happening north of the border...



Seriously

Canada(my homeland) is going to get invaded under the Trumpreich isnt it?

zoux posted:

Well he's supposed to pick up Jeb's donor base but since this is the cycle of unsupposed to, we'll see.

That money is gone and I think those donors are burned for the most part. Could see the Koch brothers and Adelson finally step up though.

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

How do you embed tweets again? Because I have a bombshell.

DAD LOST MY IPOD
Feb 3, 2012

Fats Dominar is on the case


The Nastier Nate posted:

My guess has been that while Trump is losing ground with latino voters, he will pull very high numbers with black voters (for a republican obviously), has anyone done any polling on this?

Clinton is no Obama, and I think Trump's economic protectionism speaks a lot to inner city black voters facing low wages and unemployment.

Problem: a lot of actual white supremacists are big Trump backers (they've actually been robocalling for him) and he's so far been unwilling to disavow even the craziest members of his base. Also his base contains all of the most antiblack portions of the Republican Party (look at the South Carolina polling re: slavery) and anything he says that's positive about the black community is going to enrage those people. He can't say he wants jobs programs for the inner city for example because that's a huge turnoff to a big chunk of his voters. Once he starts pivoting for the general though who knows?

And yes, there is recent polling, from February, that estimates his share of the black vote as 4-12% which is historically very consistent with Republican candidates in non-Obama years (with Obama it was more like 5%). Chances are with Obama still in the picture and openly backing the Democratic nominee it's likely to be somewhere more than 4% and less than 10%.

Pepe Silvia Browne
Jan 1, 2007

Shageletic posted:

How do you embed tweets again? Because I have a bombshell.

Just post the link and it will embed automatically. It doesn't show up in preview I don't think

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Montasque posted:


That money is gone

You kidding me? This is the donor class.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane

My Imaginary GF posted:

sounds kinda gay

President Trump wouldn't be caught dead in an antibullying ceremony. You bully individuals for their own good, so that they change their behavior to something more acceptable. Like mocking Jeb! for picking his nose, or running for President.

Well, he also beat the poo poo out of a senator in a boxing match. Has Trump ever done that?

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Rubio will be drowning in money soon enough. I'd love to see the Kasich and Carson numbers though.

Shageletic
Jul 25, 2007

THA TITTY THRILLER posted:

Just post the link and it will embed automatically. It doesn't show up in preview I don't think

Ah

Good news guys

https://twitter.com/gov_gilmore/status/698271100732600324

Patter Song
Mar 26, 2010

Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.
Fun Shoe
If Trump wins Florida on the 15th that's it. We go to talking general election stuff. Without Florida Rubio has no path whatsoever.

User
May 3, 2002

by FactsAreUseless
Nap Ghost
The obvious smart play on the IRS bullshit is to attack the IRS. There might be a less obvious smarter play, and if there is I expect Trump will find it.

TheGreyGhost
Feb 14, 2012

“Go win the Heimlich Trophy!”

Montasque posted:

Canada(my homeland) is going to get invaded under the Trumpreich isnt it?


"We're gonna have the yooogest, most luxurious lebensraum in the world."

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven
Glenn Beck is playing the White Nationalist pro-Trump robo-calls saying they are from the Trump campaign.

E: I was wrong - he's saying they had nothing to do with this, but using the point that Ted Cruz doesn't get a PASS on his Robocalls!

Totalizator
Nov 9, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 3 years!
Latinos voting in their own self interest for Clinton: cool and good
White blue collar workers voting in their own self interest for Trump: horrible racists

Women voting for Hillary because she's a woman and they want to see a woman president: progressive and correct
Men who don't vote for Hillary for any reason: disgusting sexists

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

PT6A posted:

Well, he also beat the poo poo out of a senator in a boxing match. Has Trump ever done that?

I dunno, why don't you ask Jeb! or Mitt!.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

User posted:

The obvious smart play on the IRS bullshit is to attack the IRS. There might be a less obvious smarter play, and if there is I expect Trump will find it.

Attack Mexico, birthplace of tax cheat Mitt Romney.

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

Totalizator posted:

Latinos voting in their own self interest for Clinton: cool and good
White blue collar workers voting in their own self interest for Trump: horrible racists

Just because you support Trump doesn't make you a racist.

However, if you are a racist, you're probably someone who supports Trump.

Donald Trump
Jan 31, 2016

by exmarx
http://www.sbstatesman.com/2016/02/23/political-science-professor-forecasts-trump-as-general-election-winner/

quote:


As the presentation continued, laughter turned to silence as Norpoth forecasted a 61 percent chance of a Republican win in the general

"months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke.” Norpoth said referring to Trump and Sanders, as many alumni in the audience laughed. “Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore. Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent [of the popular vote]. This is almost too much to believe.” Norpoth said, with a few members of the audience laughing nervously. “The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It’s almost ‘Take it to the bank.’ ”

Great news!

Donald Trump fucked around with this message at 16:45 on Feb 25, 2016

Totalizator
Nov 9, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 3 years!

WampaLord posted:

Just because you support Trump doesn't make you a racist.

However, if you are a racist, you're probably someone who supports Trump.

Yeah, that's fair I guess. Though I would say that if you are black and poor you will probably benefit more under Trump's nationalism then Hillary's neoliberalism. His prejudice seems to be squarely focused on mexican illegal immigrants (discounting those news stories from the 70's).

Cosmik Slop
Oct 9, 2007

What's a hole doing in my TARDIS?


My Imaginary GF posted:

I dunno, why don't you ask Jeb! or Mitt!.

I believe you mean M.I.T.T.

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven
Glenn Beck is currently trying to raise funds for Keep The Promise 1 on his show.

E: According to Beck the following things are over if Trump is elected: The Republican Party, The Conservative movement, The Constitution, and maybe America.

Montasque fucked around with this message at 16:48 on Feb 25, 2016

User
May 3, 2002

by FactsAreUseless
Nap Ghost

Totalizator posted:

Yeah, that's fair I guess. Though I would say that if you are black and poor you will probably benefit more under Trump's nationalism then Hillary's neoliberalism. His prejudice seems to be squarely focused on mexican illegal immigrants (discounting those news stories from the 70's).

The radical notion that the American government should serve the needs of American citizens and legal residents first is not racism.

The New Black
Oct 1, 2006

Had it, lost it.

DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:

my guess is it's just confirmation that his net worth is a lot lower than he claims, which would only surprise you if you have not been paying attention at all

he has claimed as high as $10bn but it's much more likely to be $1-4bn

Might be around $700m

You'd have to be an idiot like Mitt to think it would make the slightest difference though, I highly doubt there's anything potentially damaging in there

this would be my guess too. hasn't he sued several people for claiming he isn't worth as much as he says?

the worst it can do is make him look like a liar, which has been one of his own big attacks, and self-aggrandising, which everyone already knows. plus, lets face it, it's not like the "run government like a business, art of the deal" stuff is what is actually getting him support.

WampaLord
Jan 14, 2010

Totalizator posted:

Yeah, that's fair I guess. Though I would say that if you are black and poor you will probably benefit more under Trump's nationalism then Hillary's neoliberalism. His prejudice seems to be squarely focused on mexican illegal immigrants (discounting those news stories from the 70's).

I agree that Trump hasn't been spouting any of the typical Republican dog-whistles towards black people. I think at this point, most people realize (or at least Trump realizes) that "racism against black people" isn't something you can get away with on a national level.

mandatory lesbian
Dec 18, 2012

is he out of the race yet? i mean, he was always out of it, i mean does he realize it yet?

The Nastier Nate
May 22, 2005

All aboard the corona bus!

HONK! HONK!


Yams Fan

DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:

Problem: a lot of actual white supremacists are big Trump backers (they've actually been robocalling for him) and he's so far been unwilling to disavow even the craziest members of his base. Also his base contains all of the most antiblack portions of the Republican Party (look at the South Carolina polling re: slavery) and anything he says that's positive about the black community is going to enrage those people. He can't say he wants jobs programs for the inner city for example because that's a huge turnoff to a big chunk of his voters. Once he starts pivoting for the general though who knows?

And yes, there is recent polling, from February, that estimates his share of the black vote as 4-12% which is historically very consistent with Republican candidates in non-Obama years (with Obama it was more like 5%). Chances are with Obama still in the picture and openly backing the Democratic nominee it's likely to be somewhere more than 4% and less than 10%.

The Trump pivot to the center come April will be a thing of beauty. Political Science professors will teach entire courses and write textbooks about it for generations to come. He's already been dipping his toes in the water with Planned Parenthood and foreign policy. After he's done with the primary he'll cannonball in to the deep end of the pool calling for the heads of bank CEO's and pushing major infrastructure projects.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/charliespiering/status/702882177621630976

mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!
Black actually people love Hillary and Bill Clinton. The idea of them voting for Trump over them is silly.

Michael Corleone
Mar 30, 2011

by VideoGames
Does the debate START at 8:30 EDT or is that when coverage starts?

slicing up eyeballs
Oct 19, 2005

I got me two olives and a couple of limes



Yuge if true

Slate Action
Feb 13, 2012

by exmarx
It's pretty easy to make a statistical model that accurately predicts the past.

Jackson Taus
Oct 19, 2011

Joementum posted:

Keep in mind that, due to the way delegates are assigned, a portion of Trump's pledged delegates will be party members who don't actually support Trump. In a deadlocked convention scenario, very possible that he has a plurality of delegates, but a minority of supporters in the room.

True, but how many of those Cruz and Rubio folks are gonna be activists reluctant to go along with an Establishment screwjob? It'd have to be talked into a lot of them individually

User
May 3, 2002

by FactsAreUseless
Nap Ghost

Slate Action posted:

It's pretty easy to make a statistical model that accurately predicts the past.

*cough* climate change.

Sorry guys, but scientific consensus is that Trump is the next president. Science wins again!

Totalizator
Nov 9, 2006
Probation
Can't post for 3 years!

mcmagic posted:

Black actually people love Hillary and Bill Clinton. The idea of them voting for Trump over them is silly.

He doesn't need the majority, he just needs to peel off enough voters to make up for most hispanics turning out against him. Black people are actually more conservative on average but they would of course never vote for a Generic Republican because Republicans hate and fear them. Trump is not a Generic Republican and he's not out to gently caress them over, and to be frank there is little love between the black and hispanic populations.

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven
Killer spin from TEAM CRUZ:

https://twitter.com/SteveDeaceShow/status/702884630916165634

The Nastier Nate
May 22, 2005

All aboard the corona bus!

HONK! HONK!


Yams Fan

mcmagic posted:

Black actually people love Hillary and Bill Clinton. The idea of them voting for Trump over them is silly.

Bill is not running, and Hillary's favorable with black voters are lower than his, and both are lower than Obama's. If Trump can sway an additional 10% of the black vote over 2008 and 2012, that's huge yooooge. Is it likely to happen? Maybe not, but this election hasn't followed any rules, and take with a grain of salt any predictions over what's going to happen in the next 8 months.

SNAKES N CAKES
Sep 6, 2005

DAVID GAIDER
Lead Writer

Mitt Romney posted:

Florida Quinnipiac

Trump +16 http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/fl/fl02252016_FmH23kg.pdf

Trump 44
Rubio 28
Cruz 12
Kasich 7
Carson 4

Only Rick Scott can save Rubio now. And a Jeb endorsement. And Kasich and Cruz dropping out. Then he'll be on track to win his home state.

StevePerry
Sep 5, 2003

don't stop believin
Trump will make sure vampires are cool again like in The Lost Boys.

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mcmagic
Jul 1, 2004

If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Totalizator posted:

He doesn't need the majority, he just needs to peel off enough voters to make up for most hispanics turning out against him. Black people are actually more conservative on average but they would of course never vote for a Generic Republican because Republicans hate and fear them. Trump is not a Generic Republican and he's not out to gently caress them over, and to be frank there is little love between the black and hispanic populations.

This is going to happen right after he wins New York.

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