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I suppose if they have to rebuild their eastern seaboard every couple of decades that will help provide an outlet for their infrastructure investments.
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Feb 23, 2016 22:01
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| # ? May 12, 2024 22:14 |
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lol anyone watching China tonight
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Feb 25, 2016 07:25
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what is happening?
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Feb 25, 2016 07:38
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quote:SSE Composite Index
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Feb 25, 2016 07:44
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The sound of the SSE closing bell.
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Feb 25, 2016 08:02
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You beat it to me by eight minutes. You bastard. Btw should the us expect a new recession?
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Feb 25, 2016 08:12
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They'll stop sacking financial analysts soon and move up to straight up executing them in hope of fixing the economy.
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Feb 25, 2016 08:14
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Wait so what happened exactly?
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Feb 25, 2016 18:52
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Telsa Cola posted:Wait so what happened exactly? http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/02/25/chinese-stocks-plunge-more-than-6/80896156/
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Feb 25, 2016 19:19
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it turns out the chinese century will begin when the SHCOMP goes negative and President for Life Donald J Trump sacrifices a live mexican child on a black altar of satan during a full moon. it's inevitable, really
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Feb 25, 2016 20:39
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Welcome aboard Papa Xi's Wild Ride!Reuters posted:Feb 25 China has granted six large banks quotas to issue asset-backed securities (ABS) with non-performing loans as underlying assets, adding a fresh way for lenders to manage troubled loans, two sources with direct knowledge of the issue told Reuters. Tl;dr China is about to begin the biggest credit default swap in human history 
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Feb 25, 2016 22:50
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Bro Dad posted:Welcome aboard Papa Xi's Wild Ride!  
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Feb 25, 2016 22:59
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Bro Dad posted:Welcome aboard Papa Xi's Wild Ride! If it was good enough for the  it's good enough for glorious  !
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Feb 26, 2016 00:21
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Huge_Midget posted:If it was good enough for the "We'll do what the Americans do, but bigger!"
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Feb 26, 2016 00:46
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Securitisation with Chinese characteristics.
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Feb 26, 2016 01:00
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I am dumb, what is a credit default swap?
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Feb 26, 2016 01:02
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Bro Dad posted:Welcome aboard Papa Xi's Wild Ride! How is this a CDS? It looks like a typical mortgage-backed security using shaky loans as the asset. Which worked out so well for the USA in 2007.
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Feb 26, 2016 01:32
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Telsa Cola posted:I am dumb, what is a credit default swap? It doesn't really apply to this but a CDS is basically am insurance policy that pays out if a bond or security goes into default. What Chinese banks are doing is taking lovely loans which are in danger of default (or already have defaulted) and bundling them I to securities which they will then sell off. That lets them make more loans with the money from the sale. If they rate the risk correctly and the people buying know what they are getting into it is win win for everyone involved. If not you get what we had with similar mortgage backed securities setting off a chain reaction that turbofucks the economy.
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Feb 26, 2016 01:40
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They probably had some advisors from Goldman Sachs come in and say "DO IT, THIS IS A GREAT IDEA".
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Feb 26, 2016 01:51
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Yeah, if these ABSs are correctly rated and sold as risky speculative bets, it's fair game. However, IF they pull a page from the US playbook and rate them as AAA assets (and then force banks and pensions funds to buy them) then it could really backfire horribly. And it wouldn't be the first time they'd be forcing funds to buy known poo poo assets.
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Feb 26, 2016 01:52
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Freezer posted:Yeah, if these ABSs are correctly rated and sold as risky speculative bets, it's fair game. However, IF they pull a page from the US playbook and rate them as AAA assets (and then force banks and pensions funds to buy them) then it could really backfire horribly. lol if you don't think that this is exactly what the CCP will do.
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Feb 26, 2016 02:11
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What's chinese for "I'm short your
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Feb 26, 2016 02:12
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Shifty Pony posted:What Chinese banks are doing is taking lovely loans which are in danger of default (or already have defaulted) and bundling them I to securities which they will then sell off. welp
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Feb 26, 2016 02:20
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Is this 2009?
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Feb 26, 2016 06:46
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But if everyone shorts, won't that mean the market will stabilize faster  I wonder how rich the finance guys are in China. They get all the heads up information from the government and make crazy killings.
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Feb 26, 2016 07:52
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caberham posted:But if everyone shorts, won't that mean the market will stabilize faster
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Feb 26, 2016 10:15
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Toplowtech posted:Wouldn't the market "stabilizes" faster anyway if the chinese would let the market crash "normally" instead of putting it in that slowmo mode where it took 6 months for it to lose 40+%. Because that some slow loving torture. I am starting to think the "chinese century" is just a remake of Japan's lost decade at 1/10th the speed. Well there's dying a death of a thousand cuts and theres "lets see how high this cat bounces". Bejing is probably doing what they are doing because they have no idea how low it would go in freefall.
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Feb 26, 2016 10:20
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Bip Roberts posted:Well there's dying a death of a thousand cuts and theres "lets see how high this cat bounces". Bejing is probably doing what they are doing because they have no idea how low it would go in freefall.
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Feb 26, 2016 10:23
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Freezer posted:Yeah, if these ABSs are correctly rated and sold as risky speculative bets, it's fair game. I.e. if they made 100 billion in loans @ 3% no one in their right mind is going to buy the ABSs for 100 billion knowing that they are made up of loans likely to default. Any sane person who would be interested would want the ABS at a discount over face value to make up for the likely under performance so that there is some chance they could turn a profit. So, the banks end up taking a loss. The banks also can't promise a higher return rate on this risky asset because then where is that money coming from? It's not going to come from the performance of the loan so again the bank would have to pay that out of it's own funds. Maybe the government is going to make up the difference? But then why bother to make an ABS and sell it? You'd be better off just selling the troubled loans directly to the government and working with the holders to help them make their payments (ala TARP). quote:However, IF they pull a page from the US playbook and rate them as AAA assets (and then force banks and pensions funds to buy them) then it could really backfire horribly. And it wouldn't be the first time they'd be forcing funds to buy known poo poo assets. It depends on who is told to buy the new products. If it's government entities then it really is Quantitative Easing just dressed up a bit. If it's private funds then, well, that's a problem.
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Feb 26, 2016 14:30
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So the Chinese stock market dropped like 6% and the US stock market actually went up. Does that mean Wall Street no longer cares what happens in China? Was China making our markets go up and down or were we just paranoid about China's impact on oil prices? Because once oil stabilized things started evening out over here.
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Feb 26, 2016 16:45
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Krispy Kareem posted:So the Chinese stock market dropped like 6% and the US stock market actually went up. Does that mean Wall Street no longer cares what happens in China? Was China making our markets go up and down or were we just paranoid about China's impact on oil prices? Because once oil stabilized things started evening out over here. I Am Not An Economist, but I thought I remember an article that said there will be a degree of insulation between China's shutdown and it's impact on US markets. Some companies that are vested in the Chineese economy like Apple will have problems in the immediate sense, but the US at large will weather it. Where the problem comes in is that there's a lot of Chinese capital tied up in Canadian and Australian (among other places) Real estate. When those speculative bubbles collapse the fallout of that will have more of a direct impact on the US.
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Feb 26, 2016 17:46
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DeathSandwich posted:I Am Not An Economist, but I thought I remember an article that said there will be a degree of insulation between China's shutdown and it's impact on US markets. Some companies that are vested in the Chineese economy like Apple will have problems in the immediate sense, but the US at large will weather it. Where the problem comes in is that there's a lot of Chinese capital tied up in Canadian and Australian (among other places) Real estate. When those speculative bubbles collapse the fallout of that will have more of a direct impact on the US. Yeah, there isn't much direct exposure. China represents like 7% of our exports and 1% of our GDP (or GDP growth - can't remember). What hurts is that companies like GE, GM, and Apple were looking at China to fuel future profits. Since your stock price represents future growth, that definitely impacts current values. I'm starting to think the markets were more concerned with falling Chinese demand on oil prices. Once the Saudi's and Russians agreed to production caps, the market seems to have stabilized even while Chinese markets continue to slide. And those production caps were pretty weak (promising to keep it at current record levels). So even a lovely cap was enough to calm nerves.
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Feb 26, 2016 18:01
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Krispy Kareem posted:So the Chinese stock market dropped like 6% and the US stock market actually went up. Does that mean Wall Street no longer cares what happens in China? Was China making our markets go up and down or were we just paranoid about China's impact on oil prices? Because once oil stabilized things started evening out over here. It'll hurt choice companies that were banking hard on China for profits, but all in all, most of these companies have made sure to have escape plans in case of something like this, so they will take some loss but for the most part can move on. China, on the other hand, hasn't really spread around their options as much.
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Feb 26, 2016 18:15
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CommieGIR posted:China, on the other hand, hasn't really spread around their options as much. China's stock market isn't as big a part of Chinese economy as the US market is in the US economy. It's still fun to lol at the Chinese index dropping 6% a day but it's more a symptom of the overall issues their economy faces (slowing growth, possible massive real estate bubble, a growing mistrust of official CCP economic figures). If the whole thing collapsed to 10% of its current value, it'd be bad but wouldn't sink the economy (it'd be a signal that other factors are sinking the economy).
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Feb 26, 2016 19:18
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Thwomp posted:China's stock market isn't as big a part of Chinese economy as the US market is in the US economy. How big a part of the Chinese economy is shadow lending?
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Feb 26, 2016 19:57
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Thwomp posted:China's stock market isn't as big a part of Chinese economy as the US market is in the US economy. Sure, it won't collapse the country, but it will take their economy back at least 10+ years in gains that they will have to rebuild. It'll also give them less financial sway in places they were trying to expand like Africa.
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Feb 26, 2016 20:08
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CommieGIR posted:Sure, it won't collapse the country, but it will take their economy back at least 10+ years in gains that they will have to rebuild. That's my point. It's not such a integral part of the economy yet that it's fate determines the fate of the economy. That still doesn't mean it isn't doing serious damage right now. My Imaginary GF posted:How big a part of the Chinese economy is shadow lending? What time is it in China right now? I'll go measure the shadows and get back to you.
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Feb 26, 2016 20:41
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quote:
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Feb 29, 2016 03:38
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So is there any foreign capital left in China?
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Feb 29, 2016 05:57
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Jaramin posted:So is there any foreign capital left in China? Lhasa
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Feb 29, 2016 06:15
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