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Shimrra Jamaane posted:He leads the procession driving a Trans Am with the top down right?
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Feb 27, 2016 03:09
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computer parts posted:All of those are much less likely than Trump dying of a heart attack. So don't worry, based on statistics the election's in the bag. To expand on this, even if Republicans take every close swing state (went Democrat by <5% in either of the last two elections), they still have to flip at least one >5% Dem state to win. If the Democrats take any one of Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, or Ohio (three of which went Dem in each of the last two elections), it becomes almost impossible for the Republicans to pull out a win. It's not a sure thing, but I'd argue that barring a serious catastrophe, Republicans won't win, even if they weren't having a bloodbath of a primary.
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Feb 27, 2016 03:10
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computer parts posted:All of those are much less likely than Trump dying of a heart attack. So don't worry, based on statistics the election's in the bag. Watching Nate Silver backpedal on Trump is incredible
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Feb 27, 2016 03:15
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blue squares posted:Sure is sad, isn't it? Oh no, you misconstrued me (which is understandable since it was a phone post and too snarky at that). What I mean is that as much as one might distrust or dislike identity politics as a tactic, it looks like that's how this is going to shake out: the first female major-party candidate vs. a rampant misogynist. In terms of gender equality, it's about goddamn time we had a woman wipe the floor with one of these shitheads.
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Feb 27, 2016 03:17
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fool_of_sound posted:To expand on this, even if Republicans take every close swing state (went Democrat by <5% in either of the last two elections), they still have to flip at least one >5% Dem state to win. If the Democrats take any one of Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, or Ohio (three of which went Dem in each of the last two elections), it becomes almost impossible for the Republicans to pull out a win. It's not a sure thing, but I'd argue that barring a serious catastrophe, Republicans won't win, even if they weren't having a bloodbath of a primary. Then again, Florida and Ohio need to periodically remind the rest of the country that they're shitholes. Both are definitely not out of reach for Trump, especially since the former periodically reelected Rick Scott.
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Feb 27, 2016 03:18
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Ohio might be trouble but Virginia is pretty safe. And Florida I think will lean Dem because of all the old out of state retiree Democrats who make up a huge block of Hillary's support everywhere else. And that doesn't even take into account the Hispanic population. I know they largely consist of Cubans who lean more conservative but I cannot imagine that they will go for Trump in any significant number. More than the national Hispanic average probably but not by much.
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Feb 27, 2016 03:22
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Dead Cosmonaut posted:Then again, Florida and Ohio need to periodically remind the rest of the country that they're shitholes. Both are definitely not out of reach for Trump, especially since the former periodically reelected Rick Scott. They're all at risk, except maybe Virginia, but Republicans have to take all four to win in almost any scenario.
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Feb 27, 2016 03:29
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Dead Cosmonaut posted:Then again, Florida and Ohio need to periodically remind the rest of the country that they're shitholes. Both are definitely not out of reach for Trump, especially since the former periodically reelected Rick Scott. Here's what happens if Florida and Ohio both go republican, and hell so does every state that was less than 5% on either side: 
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Feb 27, 2016 03:30
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Is PA or Michigan at any risk of going Red? I would imagine that the entire Rust Belt aren't big fans of NAFTA.
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Feb 27, 2016 03:34
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I'm less concerned about Trump winning the general than I am about what's going to happen after he loses, especially if it's a close race.
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Feb 27, 2016 03:35
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Kilroy posted:I'm less concerned about Trump winning the general than I am about what's going to happen after he loses. Mmmm, I think for the most part this movement recedes back under its blue tarp, aside from a few scattered incidents along the same vein of what happened right after Obama was elected, along with a continued undercurrent of the Bundy-types that have been around for a while now and should be around for a while yet. These people aren't warriors, they're goddamn idiots who will latch onto the next culture train. As for what Trump himself will do? That will be fun.
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Feb 27, 2016 03:36
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Kilroy posted:I'm less concerned about Trump winning the general than I am about what's going to happen after he loses, especially if it's a close race. There is a lot more from where Trump came from. You'll see all kinds of flat lizards coming out of the woodwork while the Republicans howl and raise the obstructionism in Washington even more somehow.
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Feb 27, 2016 03:37
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Don't worry, the militias will be at the polling sites making sure that all the votes are on the up and up and marked for Trump.
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Feb 27, 2016 03:38
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fishmech posted:Here's what happens if Florida and Ohio both go republican, and hell so does every state that was less than 5% on either side: If a Trump vs Clinton election ends up this loving close I'm going to stroke out/drink myself to death on election night.
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Feb 27, 2016 03:38
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Kilroy posted:I'm less concerned about Trump winning the general than I am about what's going to happen after he loses, especially if it's a close race. Yeah that is my fear as well. He is really stoking the fire and I don't know if the anger and violent rhetoric will be contained very well if he loses. Not to mention losing to Hillary.
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Feb 27, 2016 03:39
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How is Der Trumpennführer losing Iowa and Wisconsin?
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Feb 27, 2016 03:41
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Wisconsin at least votes Democratic in national elections that aren't off year
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Feb 27, 2016 03:43
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Rhesus Pieces posted:If a Trump vs Clinton election ends up this loving close I'm going to stroke out/drink myself to death on election night. You and me both, but I don't think Hillary loses white women, much less by enough to make this map feasible.
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Feb 27, 2016 03:44
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Is PA or Michigan at any risk of going Red? I would imagine that the entire Rust Belt aren't big fans of NAFTA. The last time PA voted Republican, the nationwide map was this:  (1988, a 426 to 111 landslide) Rhesus Pieces posted:If a Trump vs Clinton election ends up this loving close I'm going to stroke out/drink myself to death on election night. I mean, so long as Clinton's got Virginia you can feel pretty safe in assuming she wins.
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Feb 27, 2016 03:50
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fishmech posted:Here's what happens if Florida and Ohio both go republican, and hell so does every state that was less than 5% on either side: This isn't too far from the Busy/Kerry map of 2004. If I were a Democrat, I'd be scared.
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Feb 27, 2016 03:51
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Dead Cosmonaut posted:This isn't too far from the Busy/Kerry map of 2004. If I were a Democrat, I'd be scared. Actually it's very far, what are you smoking?  4 states different is hardly "not too far".
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Feb 27, 2016 03:54
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Dead Cosmonaut posted:This isn't too far from the Busy/Kerry map of 2004. If I were a Democrat, I'd be scared. And as we all know, the voter demographics have not changed one iota in 12 years.
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Feb 27, 2016 04:01
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computer parts posted:And as we all know, the voter demographics have not changed one iota in 12 years. Also incumbent advantage.
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Feb 27, 2016 04:02
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fishmech posted:Here's what happens if Florida and Ohio both go republican, and hell so does every state that was less than 5% on either side: Translation: Virgina should be counted as a pretty safe D Clinton win. fade5 fucked around with this message at 04:07 on Feb 27, 2016 |
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Feb 27, 2016 04:04
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So I've got a US government question. What is the point of giving speeches on the floor of the Senate/House? Its highly unlikely you're swinging votes, you can't use footage from c-span in your ads and no one reading the congressional record years from now will give a gently caress what rep. Shitbag said on why a trade bill is like nazi Germany. So why bother?
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Feb 27, 2016 04:04
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Kilroy posted:I'm less concerned about Trump winning the general than I am about what's going to happen after he loses, especially if it's a close race. He spends the rest of his life trying to suck as much money from the wingnut machine as possible. Smaller wingnuts like Chowder,etc die as the Trump whale kills off this market even faster. BTW how big of an effect will voter ID laws have?
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Feb 27, 2016 04:05
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fade5 posted:Note that this hypothetical includes Virgina going Republican, and if noted Clinton bag man and (somehow) popular sitting Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe can't find a way to deliver a solid Virginia win to Clinton then he should just hara-kiri himself right now. McAuliffe is terrible
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Feb 27, 2016 04:06
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PhazonLink posted:He spends the rest of his life trying to suck as much money from the wingnut machine as possible. Smaller wingnuts like Chowder,etc die as the Trump whale kills off this market even faster. Most of them got shot down, especially in some key swing states, so I don't think it will have much effect.
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Feb 27, 2016 04:06
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Iowa will be red this year. Even when/if Trump loses in the end. The xenophobia and racism has been uncovered and unleashed fully. It isn't just bubbling below the surface.
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Feb 27, 2016 04:11
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Raskolnikov38 posted:So I've got a US government question. What is the point of giving speeches on the floor of the Senate/House? Its highly unlikely you're swinging votes, you can't use footage from c-span in your ads and no one reading the congressional record years from now will give a gently caress what rep. Shitbag said on why a trade bill is like nazi Germany. So why bother? To shore up your record / views and seek money / support from various parties. The average joe won't look into your record, but people with power / influence / money and your opposition will look into it. You can also attempt to influence how a court determine the validity of a bill views the legislative record EwokEntourage fucked around with this message at 04:16 on Feb 27, 2016 |
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Feb 27, 2016 04:13
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Nichael posted:Those are fair points. I'm just skeptical that there's a huge difference between, say, white voters not affiliated with the Republican party, and white voters who are. So you're basically struggling to differentiate between people who despise Barack Obama right now and people who don't?  Like, I know that Honky is literally the devil but come on, dude. Cut what still remains the single largest Democratic voting bloc some slack. For all that Hillary/Bernie/Vermin Supreme supporters are annoying, they're not all really only a gentle shove away from becoming Trumpian brownshirts.
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Feb 27, 2016 04:14
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Dead Cosmonaut posted:Watching Nate Silver backpedal on Trump is incredible So what are we up to now? 1%? 2%? Or is the needle still stuck at 0
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Feb 27, 2016 04:14
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Raskolnikov38 posted:So I've got a US government question. What is the point of giving speeches on the floor of the Senate/House? Its highly unlikely you're swinging votes, you can't use footage from c-span in your ads and no one reading the congressional record years from now will give a gently caress what rep. Shitbag said on why a trade bill is like nazi Germany. So why bother? quote:A cargo cult is a religious movement usually emerging in tribal or isolated societies after they have had an encounter with an external and technologically advanced society. Usually cargo cults focus on magical thinking and a variety of intricate rituals designed to obtain the material wealth of the advanced culture they encountered. Alternately, it's the chicken with its head cut off, still running around and going through the motions. Congress may be an ineffectual institute that has functionally ground to a standstill for over a decade, but by god they can still have speechifying.
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Feb 27, 2016 04:19
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Dead Cosmonaut posted:McAuliffe is terrible Actually, McAuliffe is not terrible, though this is at least in part because being a good governor of Virginia literally just means standing out of the way while the federal millions shower down around you, and not getting into any scandals (like the last guy did).
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Feb 27, 2016 04:20
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Also incumbent advantage. When was this ever the rule rather than the exception? I can think of Bush in 88, but that was after a series of sweeps wrecked the Democrats.
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Feb 27, 2016 04:25
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computer parts posted:. That was the thing j liked about 538 in 2012. Nate was pointing out that despite the closeness of national polls, in the swing states where it mattered, there was a strong confidence Obama would win and this he probability of a win was much greater than that national poll number would let on. Here though I just don't know. Like some other poster said earlier it's totally uncharted territory. Beyond trumps effect, I'm curious to see the ratfuckery effect all those voter id laws are going to have.
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Feb 27, 2016 04:26
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Dead Cosmonaut posted:When was this ever the rule rather than the exception? I can think of Bush in 88, but that was after a series of sweeps wrecked the Democrats. Bush in 04 was the incumbent he's referring to there.
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Feb 27, 2016 04:29
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computer parts posted:All of those are much less likely than Trump dying of a heart attack. So don't worry, based on statistics the election's in the bag. A terrorist attack in the next 8 months is unlikely? Remember, ISIS wants Trump to be president.
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Feb 27, 2016 04:32
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Ron Jeremy posted:That was the thing j liked about 538 in 2012. Nate was pointing out that despite the closeness of national polls, in the swing states where it mattered, there was a strong confidence Obama would win and this he probability of a win was much greater than that national poll number would let on. Also, on average the polls were Republican-biased by about 3.2 points. In the end it wasn't a blowout but it wasn't really close either, even ignoring the electoral vote and just looking at the popular vote. I still wonder if there wasn't some vote-rigging fuckery that failed to happen and caused Rove's on-air meltdown though. Wouldn't be the first time that Ohio's numbers were a little "curious". Paul MaudDib fucked around with this message at 04:38 on Feb 27, 2016 |
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Feb 27, 2016 04:35
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SedanChair posted:A terrorist attack in the next 8 months is unlikely? Remember, ISIS wants Trump to be president. For all our terrible faults we've actually gotten pretty good at learning about and then stopping terrorist attacks. Thankfully half of all prospective terrorists are utterly incompetent and the rest are undercover FBI.
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Feb 27, 2016 04:40
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