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Who will win the SC primary?
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Martin O'Malley
Willie Wilson
Baby Hitler
View Results
 
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VR Native American
May 1, 2009
Gun Saliva
Is the Electoral College anything like Donald Trump University?

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Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad
Apparently Columbia turnout is insanely low. Gotta wonder how much of the story out of today will be about the turnout.

Ace of Baes
Jul 7, 1977
Ben Solomon Carson

Ben - Benghazi
Solomon - What was buried under Solomon's Temple?
Carson - Ft. Carson is an army post located right next to Cheyenne Mountain, where N.O.R.A.D. is, it's an above top secret area, highly guarded by special operations, and is located under 2,000 feet of granite.

What is really buried underneath NORAD? Or should I say, Ben "Solomon"'s temple? The answer starts with an ancient found in Benghazi.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler
Karl Rove is contesting the decision to call SC for Hillary.

Mystery Goomba
Jun 4, 2011

zen death robot posted:

I'll have what Bens having

An opioid addiction?

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme
Has anyone seen if there are throngs of young and first time voters coming to the polls for Bernie Sanders yet?

Sephiroth_IRA
Mar 31, 2010

Concerned Citizen posted:

Has anyone seen if there are throngs of young and first time voters coming to the polls for Bernie Sanders yet?

It was just me and a bunch of old white ladies this morning.

Baloogan
Dec 5, 2004
Fun Shoe

Sephiroth_IRA posted:

It was just me and a bunch of old white ladies this morning.

lol
u live in sc

Schnorkles
Apr 30, 2015

It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Mitt Romney posted:

Apparently Columbia turnout is insanely low. Gotta wonder how much of the story out of today will be about the turnout.

Charleston turnout looks good apparently, and some places are on par w/ 2008 according to charleston county board of elections director I guess.

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme

Sephiroth_IRA posted:

It was just me and a bunch of old white ladies this morning.

Were they turned out by Bernie's big ground game advantage?

Sephiroth_IRA
Mar 31, 2010

Baloogan posted:

lol
u live in sc

at the state line. I get to work in NC and buy all the fireworks and firearms I want. :smug:

Sephiroth_IRA
Mar 31, 2010
gas and taxes are cheaper too.

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

Concerned Citizen posted:

Has anyone seen if there are throngs of young and first time voters coming to the polls for Bernie Sanders yet?

Columbia is indicating a big firm no on that. (university of south carolina)

Schnorkles posted:

Charleston turnout looks good apparently, and some places are on par w/ 2008 according to charleston county board of elections director I guess.

Hard to tell if this benefits Clinton or Sanders though- Clinton campaign put huge focus in Charleston.

A lot of smaller counties are reporting similar to 2008 turnout too.

Schnorkles
Apr 30, 2015

It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Mitt Romney posted:

Columbia is indicating a big firm no on that. (university of south carolina)


Hard to tell if this benefits Clinton or Sanders though- Clinton campaign put huge GOTV focus in Charleston.

A lot of smaller counties are reporting similar to 2008 turnout too.

Early voting was 56k versus like 39k in 2008 or something, right?

We could just be seeing strength in places where Clinton put in massive gotv.

UrbicaMortis
Feb 16, 2012

Hmm, how shall I post today?

Baloogan posted:

"america needs brain surgery" -- my dad

He's not wrong.

Mo_Steel
Mar 7, 2008

Let's Clock Into The Sunset Together

Fun Shoe
Did Bernie win SC yet?

A Neurotic Jew
Feb 17, 2012

by exmarx

Mo_Steel posted:

Did Bernie win SC yet?

Ben Carson won, very serious pundits owned yet again.

Schnorkles
Apr 30, 2015

It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

Mo_Steel posted:

Did Bernie win SC yet?

Yes, forums poster Mo_Steel. Mandatory socialism and gay marriage for everyone.

Mo_Steel
Mar 7, 2008

Let's Clock Into The Sunset Together

Fun Shoe

Schnorkles posted:

Yes, forums poster Mo_Steel. Mandatory socialism and gay marriage for everyone.

Finally.

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

since most of the delegates are handed out to the congressional district winners, i wonder what the spread between the gerrymandered district with the concentrated black population and the other ones will be

the gerrymander diluted non-trump votes in a sea of rural trump supporters in the republican primary - a more reasonable charleston county-based seat might've given rubio 3 delegates since it was the only county he won, and he came fairly close in heavily gerrymandered richland county (columbia) too

SC-01 is the gerrymandered charleston county district (it's got hilton head too) which i believe has the black areas like north charleston cut out of it so considering vague reports of possible high turnout in charleston maybe bernie could win that. i wonder if we'd see him win any of the other whiter districts?

Kempo Yellow Belt
Jan 5, 2012
Fun Shoe

zen death robot posted:

I'll have what Bens having

Early onset dementia or Alzheimer's.(not trying to make a joke here or anything. I really think he has something going on neurologically)

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme
ABC News preliminary exit estimates 60% afam voters.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

oystertoadfish posted:

since most of the delegates are handed out to the congressional district winners, i wonder what the spread between the gerrymandered district with the concentrated black population and the other ones will be

the gerrymander diluted non-trump votes in a sea of rural trump supporters in the republican primary - a more reasonable charleston county-based seat might've given rubio 3 delegates since it was the only county he won, and he came fairly close in heavily gerrymandered richland county (columbia) too

SC-01 is the gerrymandered charleston county district (it's got hilton head too) which i believe has the black areas like north charleston cut out of it so considering vague reports of possible high turnout in charleston maybe bernie could win that. i wonder if we'd see him win any of the other whiter districts?

Three things:
There just aren't that many white people in the South Carolina Democratic electorate - even the whitest district will have >40% black voters. If Clinton wins those 3-1, it's hard for Bernie to come out on top in a district.
Delegates allocations vary by district. The districts with more Dem voters have more delegates - SC-3 is 19% black and has 3 delegates, SC-6 is 57% black and has 8 delegates.
Delegates aren't awarded to the *winner* of the district, they're awarded proportionally. The difference between winning and losing SC-3 is the difference between a 2-1 split and a 1-2 split, while Clinton will be running up the score in SC-6 and looking at either a 5-3 or 6-2 delegate split in that district alone.

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

oh those are all really important points i missed, thanks

oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 23:09 on Feb 27, 2016

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

oystertoadfish posted:

since most of the delegates are handed out to the congressional district winners, i wonder what the spread between the gerrymandered district with the concentrated black population and the other ones will be

the gerrymander diluted non-trump votes in a sea of rural trump supporters in the republican primary - a more reasonable charleston county-based seat might've given rubio 3 delegates since it was the only county he won, and he came fairly close in heavily gerrymandered richland county (columbia) too

SC-01 is the gerrymandered charleston county district (it's got hilton head too) which i believe has the black areas like north charleston cut out of it so considering vague reports of possible high turnout in charleston maybe bernie could win that. i wonder if we'd see him win any of the other whiter districts?

Sanders won't win a district. At this point its looking like he may not win a county but we'll see. Everything I'm seeing shows Clinton outperforming everywhere. I am wrong a lot though.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Concerned Citizen posted:

ABC News preliminary exit estimates 60% afam voters.

55% in 2008.

With a 76% black absentee vote on top of that, that is one black af electorate.

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

Pinterest Mom posted:

55% in 2008.

With a 76% black absentee vote on top of that, that is one black af electorate.

Crazy... I think we're probably going to see +30 or higher for Clinton.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/703704190078590976

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme

quote:

Clinton isn’t having as many problems on the honesty front as she’s seen elsewhere. More South Carolina voters think Clinton is honest than say so about Sanders – more than seven in 10 in her case vs. more than six in 10 in his. In New Hampshire, by contrast, twice as many saw Sanders as trustworthy than said so about Clinton.

quote:

Voters under 30, an overwhelmingly strong group for Sanders in earlier contests, account for slightly more than one in 10 South Carolina voters in preliminary exit poll results. That could end up as a new low this cycle; under-30s accounted for 18 or 19 percent in the three previous states, with more than eight in 10 voting for Sanders.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-democratic-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37241467

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

i guess south carolina's conservative whites flipped D to R earlier than many other southern states, but how much do you think the continuation of that process has contributed to blacks being a larger share of the democratic vote share in 2016 than in 2008? the other explanation, i suppose, would be an enthusiasm gap between black and white democratic voters

edit: ok if this is an open primary then a big part would be so many of the white folks choosing the trump primary instead of this one. nate cohn's point above basically

oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 23:21 on Feb 27, 2016

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

60% female voters in addition to 60% african american.

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Pinterest Mom posted:

55% in 2008.

With a 76% black absentee vote on top of that, that is one black af electorate.

I really hope the news is about this poo poo because these are some surprising numbers, and if they represent a trend super tuesday is gonna be bonkers.

Crain
Jun 27, 2007

I had a beer once with Stephen Miller and now I like him.

I also tried to ban someone from a Discord for pointing out what an unrelenting shithead I am! I'm even dumb enough to think it worked!
I can't wait to see how /r/sandersforpresident handles this. :allears:

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold
given the polls from all these threads both parties are missing out on running a baby hitler ticket

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme

Raskolnikov38 posted:

given the polls from all these threads both parties are missing out on running a baby hitler ticket

Too risky. Jeb has already said he would assassinate Baby Hitler.

logikv9
Mar 5, 2009


Ham Wrangler

Crain posted:

I can't wait to see how /r/sandersforpresident handles this. :allears:

Thank you very much. Thank you South Carolina for the extraordinary support that we have received today.

You know five weeks ago we were 40 points behind in the polls. And we have made some real progress. A little while ago I called up Secretary Clinton and congratulated her and her staff for her victory here in South Carolina. They ran a very aggressive and effective campaign.

And I applaud them for their efforts. What this entire campaign has been about is the issue of momentum. It’s the issue of bringing more and more people into the political process. When we began in Iowa, we were 50 points behind. When we began in New Hampshire, we were 30 points behind. And we were way behind here in South Carolina.

But what I think is happening is that as people hear our message — and it is a tough message — because it speaks about the truth of the American society today that a lot of people just don’t want to address. And that is the fact that we have a corrupt campaign finance system which is undermining American democracy and must be changed.

We will not allow billionaires and their super PACS to continue to buy elections in the United States of America. And the American people are catching on that we have a rigged economy. Ordinary people, working people, working two or three jobs longer and longer hours. And almost all new income going to the top one percent. And together we are going to create an economy that works for all of us and not just the top 1%.

And the American people are catching on that we have a broken criminal justice system. A system today that says some kid in South Carolina or Vermont gets picked up with some marijuana, that kid will have a police record staying with him his entire life. But if you are a Wall Street executive and your illegal behavior destroys the economy and lives of millions of people, somehow nothing happens to you. And our job is to bring justice back to the criminal justice system.

I want to thank all of our supporters here in South Carolina. I want to thank our thousands of volunteers including many of you for working tirelessly. I want to thank our staff for the great job that they have done.

I am especially proud, that here in South Carolina and we are seeing this all over this country, we are bringing working people and young people into the political process in a way we have not seen in a very long time.

In a short while I will be on a plane to Massachusetts and then we are going to be competing in eleven states all across this country on Super Tuesday. And I believe, I believe that on Super Tuesday we have got an excellent chance to win many of those states.

But I also know that on Super Tuesday and before, we are going to be taking on a very powerful and well-funded super PAC, a super PAC that receives a significant amount of money from Wall Street and wealthy special interests.

So as we head to Super Tuesday, we would very much appreciate the help of the American people, who have been so kind and generous. We have received at this point over 3.7 million individual contributions. And if people want to help us out they can do that at BernieSanders.com.

Lastly as I think everyone knows, taking on the establishment, whether it is the financial establishment, whether it is the political establishment, whether it is the media establishment is not easy. We have come a very long way in nine months. It is clear to me and I think to most observers that the wind is at our backs. We have the momentum. And I believe, I believe that when democrats assemble in Philadelphia in July at that convention we are going to see the results of one of the great political upsets in the history of the United States.

So South Carolina, our volunteers, our supporters, our staff, thank you all very much. And now it is on to Super Tuesday.

Thank you!

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

Concerned Citizen posted:

Too risky. Jeb has already said he would assassinate Baby Hitler.

jeb is too low energy to steal candy from a baby much less kill one

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Raskolnikov38 posted:

given the polls from all these threads both parties are missing out on running a baby hitler ticket

Got scared off when Jeb openly talked about killing him, typical thuggish establishment

smg77
Apr 27, 2007

Crain posted:

I can't wait to see how /r/sandersforpresident handles this. :allears:

This is going to be nothing compared to super Tuesday.

Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

Tatum Girlparts posted:

I really hope the news is about this poo poo because these are some surprising numbers, and if they represent a trend super tuesday is gonna be bonkers.

From that ABC link: Youth vote down to 10-11%

quote:

Voters under 30, an overwhelmingly strong group for Sanders in earlier contests, account for slightly more than one in 10 South Carolina voters in preliminary exit poll results. That could end up as a new low this cycle; under-30s accounted for 18 or 19 percent in the three previous states, with more than eight in 10 voting for Sanders.

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oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

jeb was by far the best candidate on the baby hitler issue, one-issue baby hitler voters may just sit this one out

i guess almost all of the southern super tuesday primaries are open primaries, huh? could be a good deal of voters going to the trump show, and south carolina preliminary exit polls seem to be indicating that this might make the southern democratic primaries even more heavily black than anticipated. which all seems like great news for clinton

if this low youth turnout story persists as we get more data, i wonder how much of that's because of staying home and how much is from choosing to vote in the gop primary

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