|
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/703731966185709568
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:03
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 9, 2024 07:44 |
|
|
Joementum posted:All of the polling so far has shown that a vast majority of Democratic primary voters would be happy to vote for either candidate in the general election, and certainly would considering the likely alternative. There are always a small but vocal group of partisan holdouts, like the PUMA crew, but they're not a significant part of the vote. Even if only 50% of the new Democrats Bernie brought in vote for Clinton in the general, that's still a pile of new Democrats who didn't vote in 2012, a year in which the Democrats won. She won't get any of the progressive vote and I doubt youth will begrudgingly vote for her. Pandering to fears of the right got us these third way democrats. Also I'm probably a bit selfish and know I personally can weather a Republican presidency.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:03
|
|
|
Joementum posted:All of the polling so far has shown that a vast majority of Democratic primary voters would be happy to vote for either candidate in the general election, and certainly would considering the likely alternative. There are always a small but vocal group of partisan holdouts, like the PUMA crew, but they're not a significant part of the vote. Even if only 50% of the new Democrats Bernie brought in vote for Clinton in the general, that's still a pile of new Democrats who didn't vote in 2012, a year in which the Democrats won. Yeah most of them will vote for Clinton of course. I just don't think any enthusiasm he generates in terms of young voters going out and being engaged in the political system necessarily translates to them doing it for the Democrat party.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:03
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:03
|
|
|
lol NBC is calling it
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:04
|
|
|
Yikes. I want to see how Bernie's speech will address this.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:05
|
|
|
...What did Obama take? I know he beat her by like 30 points but wasn't he in the mid 70's to do it?
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:05
|
|
|
Wow... that is absolutely insane.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:05
|
|
|
Bad Caller posted:Honestly if the southern firewall wins the nom for Hillary, it won't matter in the general if white liberals in the north avoid voting for her, since our crappy all or nothing electoral college means the south will be red as it always is since LBJ, and she needs to carry swing states that are very white to win the map. Democrats never win the white vote. They haven't since, like, Carter. The idea that Hillary really needs all those white people is silly. Every year the Democrats need fewer white votes to win and every year the nation, outside places like Vermont, New Hampshire, and Iowa, get more brown.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:05
|
|
|
Goetta posted:Yeah most of them will vote for Clinton of course. I just don't think any enthusiasm he generates in terms of young voters going out and being engaged in the political system necessarily translates to them doing it for the Democrat party. Well apparently he wasn't really drumming up any enthusiasm in terms of young voters going out to the polls anyway so...
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:05
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/703732343983439872
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:05
|
|
|
Tatum Girlparts posted:...What did Obama take? I know he beat her by like 30 points but wasn't he in the mid 70's to do it? Obama got 78% of the black vote in 2008.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:06
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:06
|
|
|
Holy poo poo.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:06
|
|
|
wew
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:06
|
|
|
Pinterest Mom posted:Obama got 78% of the black vote in 2008. loving Christ I think even the most die hard Clinton dems are having to find new pants right now
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:07
|
|
|
Pinterest Mom posted:Obama got 78% of the black vote in 2008. Hillary blacker than Obama
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:07
|
|
|
Holy poo poo. That is insane. If she gets that level of support in 3 days this race is officially over.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:08
|
|
|
Hopefully Bernie's 200 man ground game will make up the difference!
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:08
|
|
|
zen death robot posted:Didn't Sanders leave SC for a few days in the middle of the week or am I remembering something wrong Yeah he obviously got a whiff of something like this.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:08
|
|
|
zen death robot posted:Didn't Sanders leave SC for a few days in the middle of the week or am I remembering something wrong Honestly it seemed as if he simply didn't know what to do, abandon SC entirely or make some sort of token effort at it. So he kind of fell in the middle.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:08
|
|
|
Goetta posted:I feel like at least some portion of Bernie supporters might come out pretty anti-DNC after all this given that campaign has been based around getting rid of corrupt political campaign systems. It is hard to see people attracted to that message immediately turn around and become lifelong Democrats, at least in the party's current form. I feel like these people don't exist, and if they did they won't vote anyway.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:08
|
|
|
zen death robot posted:Didn't Sanders leave SC for a few days in the middle of the week or am I remembering something wrong He bailed on SC, yeah. Only campaigned Sunday and Friday.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:08
|
|
|
zen death robot posted:Didn't Sanders leave SC for a few days in the middle of the week or am I remembering something wrong He was there this morning and yesterday, but the campaign knew this was going to happen and basically wrote the state off last week, spending most of their time in Super Tuesday states.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:08
|
|
|
New poli sci theory for Nate to try out: Black Voters Decide
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:09
|
|
|
is there anywhere that aggregates the precincts by CD as they come out, or am i going to have to watch the nytimes county-by-county splits and then look for reports on how things are breaking down by CD i guess the outcome is becoming undoubted but i'm still curious how the different districts will vote
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:09
|
|
|
axeil posted:Holy poo poo. That is insane. If she gets that level of support in 3 days this race is officially over. Pretty much, if this is the trend rather than SC being bonkers it's over, Sanders already needed losses in the south to be way more narrow than projected, but if they become absolute blowouts there's no coming back and at best he's a dead man walking until the 15th
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:09
|
|
|
Gyges posted:Democrats never win the white vote. They haven't since, like, Carter. The idea that Hillary really needs all those white people is silly. Every year the Democrats need fewer white votes to win and every year the nation, outside places like Vermont, New Hampshire, and Iowa, get more brown. Dividing politics on racial voting blocs is basically the easiest way for the USA to stay racially charged forever. The youth white vote swings left and dividing politics on racial lines is not good in the long run for our country. Democrats should still care about the white vote as well.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:09
|
|
|
Joementum posted:Once again, Hillary's biggest weakness is the dunderheads she's surrounded by. gently caress that. Every time Hillary pisses on the press I feel a little better about voting for her.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:10
|
|
|
Bad Caller posted:Dividing politics on racial voting blocs is basically the easiest way for the USA to stay racially charged forever. The youth white vote swings left and dividing politics on racial lines is not good in the long run for our country. Democrats should still care about the white vote as well. The DNC does care about the white vote, they just don't make the white vote the cornerstone of their operations like the RNC does, because they don't need to.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:10
|
|
|
Tatum Girlparts posted:Pretty much, if this is the trend rather than SC being bonkers it's over, Sanders already needed losses in the south to be way more narrow than projected, but if they become absolute blowouts there's no coming back and at best he's a dead man walking until the 15th Suddenly the polls of Georgia and the rest of the south make a whole bunch more sense.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:11
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:11
|
|
|
Schnorkles posted:Suddenly the polls of Georgia and the rest of the south make a whole bunch more sense. Yeeeea those are looking less like 'what, that's gotta be overblown' now I guess.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:12
|
|
|
oystertoadfish posted:is there anywhere that aggregates the precincts by CD as they come out, or am i going to have to watch the nytimes county-by-county splits and then look for reports on how things are breaking down by CD The AP does. Here's their page for the GOP primary. I can't find the Democratic one. They only distribute this to news network subscribers, so you have to guess the URL. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_cd/SC_GOP_0220_VD.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS Anyway, Hillary's going to win every CD.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:12
|
|
|
Joementum posted:The AP does. Here's their page for the GOP primary. I can't find the Democratic one. They only distribute this to news network subscribers, so you have to guess the URL. And probably every county if the exit polls are accurate.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:12
|
|
|
Suck it Bernouts
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:13
|
|
|
Joementum posted:Anyway, Hillary's going to win every CD. Physical media is dead and dying.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:13
|
|
|
Mitt Romney posted:Silver thinking near 40% is a possibility:  
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:15
|
|
|
Oh my god 87 to 12
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:16
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 9, 2024 07:44 |
|
|
Bad Caller posted:Dividing politics on racial voting blocs is basically the easiest way for the USA to stay racially charged forever. The youth white vote swings left and dividing politics on racial lines is not good in the long run for our country. Democrats should still care about the white vote as well. Democrats usually win around 40% or so of the white vote. Considering they don't build their rhetoric around coddling the poor white man who is just being unfairly trampled under the boot of minorities and women like the Republicans do, that's not bad. It's hardly ignoring the demographic and puts them on the same emphasis as other demographics.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 01:16
|
|