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Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Looks like you won several though a cop?

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Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

Ninja Bob posted:

We made a lot of the same bets!! gently caress!

yeah RIP. I clawed my way back to even from being down ~200 but got greedy and now I'm down 2x as much haha. So it goes.

Vox Nihili posted:

Looks like you won several though a cop?

Yup but not enough to cover MN and CO and OK.

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

Arkane posted:

i wonder if the GOP will do an end around and prevent a contested convention

unbind the delegates, and just gently caress over trump on the first ballot

that's the risk of the brokered convention contract, which right now looks underpriced if we assume that the GOP won't change the rules

Yes they can. The rules are whatever they want them to be. But if they did that, they would lose *every* race down to dogcatcher and there are already too many people endorsing him to get that to work.

Also they do need 8 original state delegations to change the rules and right now they don't actually have those!

Arkane
Dec 19, 2006

by R. Guyovich

Adar posted:

But if they did that, they would lose *every* race down to dogcatcher and there are already too many people endorsing him to get that to work.

?

just the opposite would happen

trump is toxic down ticket, and his endorsers are mostly jokes or out of politics

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK
Man I wish I hadn't cashed out my Oklahoma shares before the night even began. Then I went and got greedy in Colorado and turned down a 11 cent profit reaching for 20 and then the market zoomed on down. I went from up 20% before South Carolina to down 20% now.

StevePerry
Sep 5, 2003

don't stop believin
10 contests, didnt lose any tonight (7 of 10 were safe Sanders NO). Although I had big doubts on Cruz in Texas as y'all read a couple pages ago. Glad I doubled down. And of course Virginia was closer than I wanted it to be, but a win's a win on PredictIt.

Arkane
Dec 19, 2006

by R. Guyovich
All in all, today was amazing for betting.

GOP race is gonna be another 2+ months it looks like (unless Trump wins both OH/FL).

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

Arkane posted:

?

just the opposite would happen

trump is toxic down ticket, and his endorsers are mostly jokes or out of politics

The toxicity of the ticket goes something like this:

Rubio >>>>>>>>>>>>> Trump >>>>>>>>>>>>> Cruz >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> every Trump supporter in America is personally ratfucked by the Republican Party at the convention

but yeah it's an amazing night for betting and this owns

Social Studies 3rd Period
Oct 31, 2012

THUNDERDOME LOSER



I lost the $100 I was up before today began, and finished about $15 down in total. Most of that loss was getting stuck holding the bag trying to flip in OK. :v:

Arkane
Dec 19, 2006

by R. Guyovich

Adar posted:

The toxicity of the ticket goes something like this:

Rubio >>>>>>>>>>>>> Trump >>>>>>>>>>>>> Cruz >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> every Trump supporter in America is personally ratfucked by the Republican party at the convention

Trump is losing the popular vote right now by a pretty big margin versus the anti-Trumps. So he has 0 claims to a mandate of any kind.

The other thing is that Trump is a tolerable candidate to only about half of Republican voters, whereas someone like Rubio is closer to 70%, and Cruz/Kasich are also much higher than Trump.

And really, the voters will get over it. Take your medicine, take a week to get over it, and vote for whoever they pick over Hilldawg.

FourLeaf
Dec 2, 2011
I'm up ~20% so far tonight. If Trump wins Alaska it will be slightly more. If Trump Nom YES goes up it'll be a lot more.

Yoshifan823
Feb 19, 2007

by FactsAreUseless
RIP my money. I should have quite while I was ahead, went from almost 200 up before I left this evening four hours ago to down about 300. I'll still have a little money to play with after tonight but it's gonna take me a while to work back up to where I started.

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

Arkane posted:

Trump is losing the popular vote right now by a pretty big margin versus the anti-Trumps. So he has 0 claims to a mandate of any kind.

The other thing is that Trump is a tolerable candidate to only about half of Republican voters, whereas someone like Rubio is closer to 70%, and Cruz/Kasich are also much higher than Trump.

And really, the voters will get over it. Take your medicine, take a week to get over it, and vote for whoever they pick over Hilldawg.

You and I are talking about the same set of voters, right? The 50% of the party that is so terminally angry at literally everything that they're about to make Donald Trump their nominee are going to take a week and get over it, then pull the lever for Rubio?

Dude. There will be rioting. And then more rioting. And then everyone up for reelection who cast a vote for, supported or even mentioned Not Trump is getting boycotted. I'm being polite here. Some people might die.

Like, if you think they are getting over it we aren't on the same planet.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


should've stayed 1700 in MA goddamnit but that was so tense early on

Class Warcraft
Apr 27, 2006


Dammit Alaska, count your votes already. :argh:

GWBBQ
Jan 2, 2005


I started Sunday, made several profitable trades and a few regrettable ones that I felt bad about immediately after submitting them. I've put in $80 and currently have an available plus invested of 79.75, and learned that like Youtube, you should never read the comments. I'm getting the hang of it since I've never done fast paced trading/betting before.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Anyone else in on Alaska?

FourLeaf
Dec 2, 2011

Vox Nihili posted:

Anyone else in on Alaska?

Yup. Come on Trump!

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Putting pretty much all my winnings on a Trump win/Cruz loss here. Cmon polls, stay true...

GWBBQ
Jan 2, 2005


Vox Nihili posted:

Anyone else in on Alaska?
Trump Yes is a little more than Cruz No, so I went with Cruz No. It looks like a solid Trump win.

edit: RNOM16.Trump.Yes is still way lower than I expected it after tonight

GWBBQ has issued a correction as of 06:13 on Mar 2, 2016

JosefStalinator
Oct 9, 2007

Come Tbilisi if you want to live.




Grimey Drawer
Man I got beat up a bit today. Not horrible but I thought Hildawg could pull it out in CO. Oh well!

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Allegedly great turnout in Alaska. We'll see what the fur trappers drag in...

fatal oopsie-daisy
Jul 30, 2007

by R. Guyovich

a cop posted:

Yup but not enough to cover MN and CO and OK.

Same, ended up losing 25% of my investments this time. I thought I had solid picks too.

StevePerry
Sep 5, 2003

don't stop believin

Vox Nihili posted:

Anyone else in on Alaska?
500 shares of Trump YES. Taunting the gods at this point.

Zeta Taskforce
Jun 27, 2002

http://www.alaskagop.org/results_of_alaska_s_ppp

No results in yet

Arkane
Dec 19, 2006

by R. Guyovich

I have a vague memory of a previous Alaska caucus taking a week to fully report

JosefStalinator
Oct 9, 2007

Come Tbilisi if you want to live.




Grimey Drawer
Guess you can marginally stump the Trump if you bother calling him out on anything and running ads against him or otherwise opposing him in any way.

Who knew!?

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Just got some Cruz Noes for bargain prices. C'mon results...

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme
https://twitter.com/akgop/status/704908734829613058?lang=en

It's a barn burner!

FourLeaf
Dec 2, 2011
Ben carson is actually winning a district

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008


I'm not sure what that means, but I sold most of my shares for cash almost immediately.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

#AKVotes
With 1,573 reporting:

Carson 155 - 9.9%
Cruz 465 - 29.6%
Kasich 113 - 7.2%
Rubio 288 - 18.3%
Trump 552 - 35.1%

Pakistani Brad Pitt
Nov 28, 2004

Not as taciturn, but still terribly powerful...



I waited 3.5 hours tonight, in a weedy Denver caucus line, then the event itself. In my group we straw polled 60-42 Sanders with 5 undecided and convinced all 5 undecided to switch to Bernie.

#sorrynotsorry

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Cruz catching up!!!

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

I flipped and now hold Cruz shares.

Edit: Sold them.

Edit2:

Alaska GOP ‏@akgop 1m1 minute ago
#AKVotes 4,647 reporting, incl/ Haines/Juneau
Carson 489 - 10.5%
Cruz 1,562 - 33.6%
Kasich 260 - 5.6%
Rubio 708 - 15.2%
Trump 1,628 - 35.0%

Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 07:37 on Mar 2, 2016

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

why am i putting money on how people in the goddamn Kenai will vote

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Trump will win states four days from now. .74 TrumpNOM is a loving steal

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme
I told you guys. Never bet on Trump.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Just made a ton flipping 500 shares of Cruz Yes/Trump No from 22c to 60-65c, woooooo.

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Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

OK I made like $180, but it feels like a drat ton after this waiting game.

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