SUPER TUESDAY MAR 1. 7pm ET. Hillary sighed as she drew her katana.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > SUPER TUESDAY MAR 1. 7pm ET. Hillary sighed as she drew her katana.

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Who will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday?
	Hillary Clinton
	Donald Trump
	Bernie Sanders
	Jim Gilmore
	Baby Hitler

logikv9: Mar 5, 2009; Ham Wrangler

Joementum was too good for us.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:02

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# ? Jun 10, 2024 14:16

Chemtrailologist: Jul 8, 2007

MSNBC is pretty much holding a funeral for the Rubio campaign.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:02

JosefStalinator: Oct 9, 2007; Come Tbilisi if you want to live.; Grimey Drawer

axeil posted:

it's trump, cruz and not-trump (which could be rubio, kasich, or ~*mystery candidate*~)

For Trump to win:

just keep doing what he's doing, with some slight improvement. he might just barely get past the threshold, but he should do it.

For Cruz to win (not at the convention):

Win one of FL/OH and then deny trump wins elsewhere. Have Rubo/Kasich/Carson drop out and a supermajority of their support comes to you.

For Rubio to win (not at the convention):

Essentially impossible. Would need to win FL+OH and then somehow gain a ton of support across the country extremely rapidly so he could start winning states.

For Kasich to win (not at the convention):

Actually impossible. I don't think he can even get close to the magic number.

Ensuring a convention fight:

Cruz/Rubio/Kasich all keep Trump from hitting 50% in winner-take-all states while winning OH+FL themselves (as you don't need to hit 50% in those two). Once it goes to the convention it's total chaos and essentially unpredictable. Jeb! could somehow still end up the nominee. Or Romney. Or Paul Ryan.

Those are basically the paths to the nomination now.

I agree. It's pretty much Trump or brokered convention at this point. And I've got money on Trump, even if he limps in, it's hard to deny him that 50%.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:03

EwokEntourage: Jun 10, 2008; BREYER: Actually, Antonin, you got it backwards. See, a power bottom is actually generating all the dissents by doing most of the work.

SCALIA: Stephen, I've heard that speed has something to do with it.

BREYER: Speed has everything to do with it.

Schnorkles posted:

Yeah. SCOTUS isn't going to hear something just to smack down a case from two years ago and turn the court into an endless back and forth based on who's 5-4. I doubt any of the appellates would hear and decide in such a way that they would be forced to.

e: the other thing, as a terrible of a liberal as it makes me, is that I kind of agree with Alito's reasoning in CU. [I can't actually remember if he wrote the opinion, but I saw him speak shortly thereafter] It's not perfect, but his point about media viz a viz speech and politics is a good one.

Kennedy wrote the opinion. Roberts wrote a concurrence, joined by Alito, and Scalia wrote a concurrence.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:03

Combed Thunderclap: Jan 4, 2011

PT6A posted:

Sorry, I was busy tonight so I haven't followed this, but what's with multiple different posters claiming that electing a democrat is literally a matter of life and death for me and my friends!!

I mean, I think a republican presidency would be bad, but do you think you might be acting the tiniest bit overdramatic? This is like Republicans claiming that Democrats will allow terrorists to kill us all and institute death panels.

The GOP is dead set on repealing Obamacare as soon as humanly possible.

The President is the only part of the system standing in the way of repeal.

There are lots of people who are completely dependent on the health care expansions Obamacare made possible.

It isn't that hard to figure out that people don't want to put their access to health care (again, not hyperbole) in the hands of a government controlled entirely by the GOP and rolling the dice on whether or not each particular piece of crazy poo poo the GOP said was crazy poo poo they can't wait to make law or just crazy poo poo they said to get votes.

This doesn't even cover the Supreme Court nominations, which can ensure the SC completely reinterprets the Constitution in radically different ways for a few decades.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:03

Squalid: Nov 4, 2008

Trapezium Dave posted:

Florida is winner-takes-all? Why does every state have to do everything so differently.

Because states' Rights!!!

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:04

silicone thrills: Jan 9, 2008; I paint things

PT6A posted:

Sorry, I was busy tonight so I haven't followed this, but what's with multiple different posters claiming that electing a democrat is literally a matter of life and death for me and my friends!!

I mean, I think a republican presidency would be bad, but do you think you might be acting the tiniest bit overdramatic? This is like Republicans claiming that Democrats will allow terrorists to kill us all and institute death panels.

I mean, depending on your particular situation it could be true. Remember that certain republican states have literally shut down transplant programs and sentenced people to die.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:04

ScrubLeague: Feb 11, 2007; Nap Ghost

Conservative reddit may be the only thing more delusional than Bernie reddit.

quote:

I can't wait for Donald Trump's campaign to implode during Fox News' debate on Thursday.

Between Cruz and Rubio's attacks, Megyn Kelly moderating, the question of his white supremacist support, and his hollow positions and ideas, the perfect storm is brewing and it's headed straight for Trump.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:04

Montasque: Jul 18, 2003; Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven

Votes finally coming in from Alaska...

Ben Carson with the lead!

E: Trump took the lead.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:04

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

BI NOW GAY LATER posted:

The President of the United States has, uh, a lot more power than the DNC.

and arguably the DSCC and DCCC have more power than the DNC does, so it's not even the top organization in its own party.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:04

babypolis: Nov 4, 2009

joe said a while ago that trump was going to be the nominee. i think after nevada

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:04

Yoshifan823: Feb 19, 2007; by FactsAreUseless

BI NOW GAY LATER posted:

The President of the United States has, uh, a lot more power than the DNC.

Especially when that president is the same party and has roughly the same goals as the house and senate. The DNC is powerful, but a republican president with a republican house and senate (and if there's a republican president there will be a republican house and senate) is way more so.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:05

EwokEntourage: Jun 10, 2008; BREYER: Actually, Antonin, you got it backwards. See, a power bottom is actually generating all the dissents by doing most of the work.

SCALIA: Stephen, I've heard that speed has something to do with it.

BREYER: Speed has everything to do with it.

Squalid posted:

Because states' Rights!!!

Because parties aren't a part of the government

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:05

Combed Thunderclap: Jan 4, 2011

Montasque posted:

Votes finally coming in from Alaska...

Ben Carson with the lead!

Aaaaand it's Trump v. Cruz. Shine on you crazy, Palin-electing Alaskans.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:05

Acquilae: May 15, 2013

Homeless Friend posted:

holy lol this politico front page image makes christie even better

Watching Chris Christie give up the supposed tough guy persona and take his rightful place as an rear end-kissing Trump lackey is perfect :allears:

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:06

GOOD TIMES ON METH: Mar 17, 2006; Fun Shoe

Rubio has to be done after today. He is getting beaten senseless in the media.

One pundit suggested he drop before FL so that he doesn't get shithoused in a state where he will want to run for office in again someday. That seems like a good idea to me.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:06

BI NOW GAY LATER: Jan 17, 2008; So people stop asking, the "Bi" in my username is a reference to my love for the two greatest collegiate sports programs in the world, the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Marshall Thundering Herd.

Goetta posted:

Rubio has to be done after today. He is getting beaten senseless in the media.

One pundit suggested he drop before FL so that he doesn't get shithoused in a state where he will want to run for office in again someday. That seems like a good idea to me.

If Rubio drops out who does the Establishment back.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:07

Nolan Arenado: May 8, 2009

Cardboard Box A posted:

As someone who has lived in Iowa and Colorado, I think that map has them backwards.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:08

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Goetta posted:

Rubio has to be done after today. He is getting beaten senseless in the media.

One pundit suggested he drop before FL so that he doesn't get shithoused in a state where he will want to run for office in again someday. That seems like a good idea to me.

then again, Rubio is pretty much essential if the plan is to take this to a convention fight. if you're going the convention fight route you need everyone to stay in. even carson.

i'm pretty sure there's going to be an all day conference call tomorrow between Reince Priebus, Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan to figure out if they hit the glass and go full "gently caress trump" or acquiesce.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:08

BI NOW GAY LATER: Jan 17, 2008; So people stop asking, the "Bi" in my username is a reference to my love for the two greatest collegiate sports programs in the world, the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Marshall Thundering Herd.

The onlygood thing Trump has done for the Dems for sure, is loving obliterate their bench for a decade and I am pleased with it.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:09

SNAKES N CAKES: Sep 6, 2005; DAVID GAIDER
Lead Writer

BI NOW GAY LATER posted:

If Rubio drops out who does the Establishment back.

Either Ted Cruz or Donald Trump.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:09

Epic High Five: Jun 5, 2004

BI NOW GAY LATER posted:

If Rubio drops out who does the Establishment back.

Cruz

It's too beautiful for words. The GOP will have to kneel before either of those two

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:09

KIM JONG TRILL: Nov 29, 2006; GIN AND JUCHE

BI NOW GAY LATER posted:

Accepting realities of the situation and "content with" are very different things.

Overturning a SCOTUS opinion is not something that just magically happens because we suddenly have a more favorable court make up. There is an entire process to get that to happen that is long and difficult and would be opposed at every step. (Not to say it's not a good goal, but it's not just snap your fingers easy.) That would require a lot of political capital.

Further, even once you had overturned CU, you are no closer to having a public funding mechanism in place that would create robust enough funding to make it a good alternative to funding campaigns as we did, pre-CU. It would also do jack poo poo for getting rid of FPTP.

the court is normally hesitant to blatantly overturn a case if they can avoid it, but i think citizens united is one of the exceptional cases where the previous minority is so vehemently against what it stands for that the second they are the majority they will overturn

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:10

logikv9: Mar 5, 2009; Ham Wrangler

BI NOW GAY LATER posted:

If Rubio drops out who does the Establishment back.

Sounds like it's time... for Romneymentum.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:10

Trapezium Dave: Oct 22, 2012

Pixel Carson! I've finally seen the whole Super Tuesday set in action! :dance:

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:10

Combed Thunderclap: Jan 4, 2011

Acquilae posted:

Watching Chris Christie give up the supposed tough guy persona and take his rightful place as an rear end-kissing Trump lackey is perfect

I think the press conference was so unnerving because we've never seen Chris Christie so silent for so long, let alone so quiet and observant while Trump's mouth was emitting sound. Which made it transparent that he really is a lackey now and demolishes his Brash Loudtalkin' NJ persona.

Goetta posted:

Rubio has to be done after today. He is getting beaten senseless in the media.

One pundit suggested he drop before FL so that he doesn't get shithoused in a state where he will want to run for office in again someday. That seems like a good idea to me.

On the other hand Rubio dropping out before FL would likely be taken as a sign that he can't win Florida, which would be the same as a loss.

Also Rubio's not-concession speech was basically single-mindedly focused on winning Florida; I think he wants to win it to show he's still in the Florida politics game and then immediately drop out.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:10

Yoshifan823: Feb 19, 2007; by FactsAreUseless

Alaska results are starting to come in! Rubio is under 20% again! 6% of votes are in!

BI NOW GAY LATER posted:

The onlygood thing Trump has done for the Dems for sure, is loving obliterate their bench for a decade and I am pleased with it.

Even if his campaign doesn't end with him as a nominee, his destruction of Jeb Bush is well worth his campaign.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:10

JosefStalinator: Oct 9, 2007; Come Tbilisi if you want to live.; Grimey Drawer

Did friend Ben personally screen his movie in one of Alaska's districts?

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:11

Probably Magic: Oct 9, 2012; Looking cute, feeling cute.

BI NOW GAY LATER posted:

If Rubio drops out who does the Establishment back.

Bloomberg.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:11

Squalid: Nov 4, 2008

EwokEntourage posted:

Because parties aren't a part of the government

In this case, it's the right of the state party to set its own primary rules and regulations.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:12

SNAKES N CAKES: Sep 6, 2005; DAVID GAIDER
Lead Writer

They could attempt a pump-and-dump with Cruz, supporting him just enough to force a contested convention, but not enough for him to win it. They must be seriously considering something like that.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:13

Rocks: Dec 30, 2011

https://twitter.com/mobute/status/704911440277348352

end thread.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:13

BI NOW GAY LATER: Jan 17, 2008; So people stop asking, the "Bi" in my username is a reference to my love for the two greatest collegiate sports programs in the world, the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Marshall Thundering Herd.

KIM JONG TRILL posted:

the court is normally hesitant to blatantly overturn a case if they can avoid it, but i think citizens united is one of the exceptional cases where the previous minority is so vehemently against what it stands for that the second they are the majority they will overturn

That's a fair read too.

I think my larger point was still that overturning CU is a good goal that both candidates share. It doesn't get him any closer to the two things he'd mentioned though.

BI NOW GAY LATER has issued a correction as of 07:15 on Mar 2, 2016

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:13

Probably Magic: Oct 9, 2012; Looking cute, feeling cute.

Rocks posted:

https://twitter.com/mobute/status/704911440277348352

end thread.

I don't think he felt this way about Hillary back in 2008, but whatever.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:14

babypolis: Nov 4, 2009

rachel maddow on msnbc saying the same thing as me. its just loving hard as hell to win after 8 years of a dem presidency

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:15

Yoshifan823: Feb 19, 2007; by FactsAreUseless

babypolis posted:

rachel maddow on msnbc saying the same thing as me. its just loving hard as hell to win after 8 years of a dem presidency

Which is why Trump and Cruz are a gift from god, because they're highly unelectable in a general, particularly Cruz.

2020 is gonna be a bitch, but we all thought 2016 was gonna be a bitch, so who knows what the gently caress might happen in 4 years.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:17

JosefStalinator: Oct 9, 2007; Come Tbilisi if you want to live.; Grimey Drawer

babypolis posted:

rachel maddow on msnbc saying the same thing as me. its just loving hard as hell to win after 8 years of a dem presidency

The whole voter fatigue thing is predicated on voters attributing the scandals and economic downturns that happen during a party's rule, and we've seen little of either under Obama. Normally after 8+ years these things pile up and voters try something new and fresh. I don't necessarily buy that voters "want change" after 8 years if neither of those things has happened.

May also not help that Republicans have held congress and Obama's had little leeway or chance to do much for the last 6 years of his presidency.

# ? Mar 2, 2016 07:18