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Fried Chicken posted:Hey you are gonna want to read this. Not as good as the Taibbi piece the other day of the WaPo Chrisie piece this morning but still great I do feel a bit bad for Nate. After owning utterly every pundit alive in 2008 doing the whole "shut up and calculate" thing, it's got to be hard knowing that you basically owned yourself by making the same mistake they did. At least he (mostly, tactically, reservedly) owned up to it though, rather than pulling a Rove.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:04
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Fried Chicken posted:https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3766681&perpage=40 For a reminder, she also knows how to castrate a hog.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:05
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Kilroy posted:Frankly I'm getting a bit tired of hearing about The Party Decides after Nate Silver prattling on about it over and again for the second half of last year. It helps that literally no one called this. Hard to blame someone who relies wholly on robust empirical data for missing a black swan event.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:07
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vyelkin posted:Because the ACA, despite being better than what America had before, is still a system that relies heavily on private insurance companies, and private insurance companies never stopped being huge dickheads. No, insurance companies aren't the roadblock here. You would have to force doctors, hospitals, medical equipment manufacturers, and pharmaceutical companies to accept massive cuts their profit margins. That would be an absolutely insane fight, especially because many of those groups have made extremely expensive investments ($300k for med school, $1.5 million for the new MRI suite, etc) expecting to recoup the cost via the high prices.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:09
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ReidRansom posted:Isn't this giving up the game a bit much? They pretend to just report the news, and we pretend to accept that fiction. Taken as an admission they were actively pushing Rubio, doesn't this all go kinda fucky or is that all OK post Citizens United?
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Mar 3, 2016 16:12
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Kilroy posted:Frankly I'm getting a bit tired of hearing about The Party Decides after Nate Silver prattling on about it over and again for the second half of last year. Yeah I figured him getting bought on to the Disney/ABC/ESPN machine was going to end poorly for him...well I mean outside of how much money he is probably making now. Websites that are expected to do numbers in a corporate structure by their nature have to often play the game that everyone else does.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:14
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Kro-Bar posted:Thanks; I always forget to look in YCS. Are you enjoying the panel in how political correctness is a major national security threat?
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Mar 3, 2016 16:19
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Political correctness is the birthplace of disastrous, un-American policies that will destroy the country in a death by a thousand cuts. But here comes Trump, the first person who didn’t even blink when the machine turns its sights on him. He didn’t just fight back. He chewed it up and spit it out. -a 29 year old Hispanic woman http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/03/secret-donald-trump-voters-speak-out
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Mar 3, 2016 16:21
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Filthy Hans posted:Also he'll get out of debt much sooner if he only owes 30% or so of that six-figure bill. If someone that bad happens to me then the rate is a moot point. If I require a very minor surgery even, say something between $3k and $10k, then I will just pay for it or can pay most of it immediately and the balance in due time. Because that kind of work would still be cheaper than years of paying for insurance every month plus half the cost anyway because the insurance is garbage. But if I'm looking at a ginormo bill like you describe then it doesn't matter if its $30k or $300k because at that point my only options are "be in debt forever basically" or "skip town". It would probably take me a decade at least to pay off just $30k, and I'd be living miserably the whole time. Basically this guy has it right... WhiskeyJuvenile posted:Frankly the problem is that people are poor. The money isn't in the system. If people my age made more money, or if rent in California wasn't loving insane (I do not even live in a major city and a one bedroom apartment is at least $1000 a month) then things could work out. We have a healthcare system that asks more of our workers than the economy provides them. Whether it's the fault of insurance companies, or general medical costs, or pharmaceuticals, or what the gently caress ever. That's the bottom line: the sums being asked of us exceed our means. Meme Poker Party fucked around with this message at 16:24 on Mar 3, 2016 |
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Mar 3, 2016 16:22
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zoux posted:It helps that literally no one called this. Hard to blame someone who relies wholly on robust empirical data for missing a black swan event. boosted called it
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Mar 3, 2016 16:22
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BetterToRuleInHell posted:Heh, the rats are fleeing the ship: 
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Mar 3, 2016 16:22
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The Occupy protester turned Trump supporter (24, New York) ‘His candidacy is ripping the soul of America apart – we deserve it’ Imanaccelerationist.gif
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Mar 3, 2016 16:23
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Has Hillary given an explanation for setting up a private email server?
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Mar 3, 2016 16:25
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zoux posted:It helps that literally no one called this. Hard to blame someone who relies wholly on robust empirical data for missing a black swan event. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/ Nate has been delusional since day one when it comes to Trump. This article from back in August has him putting Trump's odds of getting the nomination at 2%. He arrives at this figure through the robust process of outlining '6 stages of doom', all of which Trump has a 50% chance of successfully navigating. I'm sure a statistician could point out a few reasons why this isn't valid statistical science.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:27
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zoux posted:It helps that literally no one called this. Hard to blame someone who relies wholly on robust empirical data for missing a black swan event.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:28
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gohmak posted:Has Hillary given an explanation for setting up a private email server? Well if it's like how every single politician since the invention of emails, it's to avoid FOIA.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:29
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Lid posted:Political correctness is the birthplace of disastrous, un-American policies that will destroy the country in a death by a thousand cuts. But here comes Trump, the first person who didn’t even blink when the machine turns its sights on him. Jesus lady, they're not laughing with you, they're laughing at you.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:30
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Trump will break the poisonous bonds that hold America and the cult state of Saudi Arabia. Clinton would never do that; she would continue supporting Saudi Arabia while bombing Islamic countries left and right. My parents are horrified at the thought of a Trump presidency. They say things like “Trump is going to round up all the Muslims and put them in camps.” For all his bombastic remarks, Trump will not attack innocent Muslim countries. Ironically enough, he may be the best thing for moderate average Muslims. He isn’t our enemy, he is the enemy of the globalist Wahhabi cult that has propagated mass violence and murder through out the world. -a homosexual Muslim son of Arab immigrants
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Mar 3, 2016 16:32
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zoux posted:It helps that literally no one called this. Hard to blame someone who relies wholly on robust empirical data for missing a black swan event. We should have though. Trump is tapping into forces that have been growing for over 40 years. The surprise isn't that there has been blowback on this sort of institutional failure, it is that the elites proved so feckless at addressing it even as it reached a crisis point. here is a solid piece this weekend from Thomas Edsall on it
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Mar 3, 2016 16:33
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gohmak posted:Has Hillary given an explanation for setting up a private email server? To avoid the FOIA and to dodge the problem of all of her personal correspondence being archived as a historical record. Colin Powell admitted to doing similar things and I assume that Condi Rice did too. Powell's non-classified personal address was a hotmail account. It was literally something like cpowell@hotmail.com
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Mar 3, 2016 16:34
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Narciss posted:http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/ I do agree this is a black swan event, it's just that the event already occurred sometime in September / October, at the latest. Once it was clear he had widespread popular support, pundits should have taken him more seriously. Most of those idiots I can understand, but Nate is supposed to be the polls guy - how did he gently caress this up?
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Mar 3, 2016 16:34
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Is ACA talk still going? Have we gotten to the point that the posters who love ACA have begun a circle jerk over how great their private insurance is and why can't the posters who hate ACA because it is screwing them understand this? That is always my favorite part.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:35
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Fried Chicken posted:We should have though. Trump is tapping into forces that have been growing for over 40 years. The surprise isn't that there has been blowback on this sort of institutional failure, it is that the elites proved so feckless at addressing it even as it reached a crisis point. We knew someone would, but Trump? Literally everyone everywhere was scoffing at him in July, including us. Remember the escalator gif and how we laughed and laughed. The good thing is that at least it seems the Democrats are taking him seriously and will do things like "oppo research" and "admit that he exists".
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Mar 3, 2016 16:35
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Mr Hootington posted:Is ACA talk still going? Have we gotten to the point that the posters who love ACA have begun a circle jerk over how great their private insurance is and why can't the posters who hate ACA because it is screwing them understand this? That is always my favorite part. Health insurance will be hosed until the government decides that treating sick people like a piggy bank for the insurance companies is immoral and unethical. Which is to say, itll be hosed forever.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:37
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Fried Chicken posted:We should have though. Trump is tapping into forces that have been growing for over 40 years. The surprise isn't that there has been blowback on this sort of institutional failure, it is that the elites proved so feckless at addressing it even as it reached a crisis point. Nobody called it because the serious people are so far up their asses that they couldn't see the wave building. If instead of laughing at all the angry, racist, poor people they had listened. They might have seen this coming.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:38
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LeeMajors posted:Health insurance will be hosed until the government decides that treating sick people like a piggy bank for the insurance companies is immoral and unethical. Again, it's really strange that people focus on the insurance companies. I guess because that's who they deal with directly.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:38
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zoux posted:We knew someone would, but Trump? Literally everyone everywhere was scoffing at him in July, including us. Remember the escalator gif and how we laughed and laughed. I laughed in July as well. Then I looked at some polls a few months later, and noted that he was crushing it. Everyone says polls that far out aren't very predictive, but they are more predictive than most anything else, including a stranger's gut feeling based mostly on a book written during the Bush administration.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:40
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Kilroy posted:I do agree this is a black swan event, it's just that the event already occurred sometime in September / October, at the latest. Once it was clear he had widespread popular support, pundits should have taken him more seriously. Most of those idiots I can understand, but Nate is supposed to be the polls guy - how did he gently caress this up? That's the shocking thing, how slow the pundits have been to accept that Trump is probably going to win the nomination. Back when he first entered I laughed and thought 'publicity stunt'; a few months later I realized he would probably win. Soon after that I decided to vote for him. Yet up until Super Tuesday, there were still people insisting that everyone except Trump and Rubio would drop out and the vote would consolidate or some other such fantasy. Soon we'll be repeating that whole process again, but with the general election. You already see plenty of "Trump has NO chance he CANNOT beat Clinton".
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Mar 3, 2016 16:41
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Mr Hootington posted:Is ACA talk still going? Have we gotten to the point that the posters who love ACA have begun a circle jerk over how great their private insurance is and why can't the posters who hate ACA because it is screwing them understand this? That is always my favorite part. I'm guessing you are from a state that didn't expand medicaid (Republican)? ACA wasn't the best thing in the world but it did solve a lot of problems. Unfortunately a lot of problems still exist.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:41
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zoux posted:We knew someone would, but Trump? Literally everyone everywhere was scoffing at him in July, including us. Remember the escalator gif and how we laughed and laughed. Hi! I knew something was happening when the crowd at the event that Trump said McCain was no hero twisted themselves into a knot saying how great Trump still was and that Rick perry was a very bad man for calling out the trump truths. This happened in Mid-July if you remember.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:41
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Narciss posted:That's the shocking thing, how slow the pundits have been to accept that Trump is probably going to win the nomination. Back when he first entered I laughed and thought 'publicity stunt'; a few months later I realized he would probably win. Soon after that I decided to vote for him. Yet up until Super Tuesday, there were still people insisting that everyone except Trump and Rubio would drop out and the vote would consolidate or some other such fantasy.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:43
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Kilroy posted:Well, so far if you think Trump is going to win the general then you're making the same mistake as people who thought he wouldn't win the GOP nom. No, it only counts if you're cynical.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:46
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Kilroy posted:Frankly I'm getting a bit tired of hearing about The Party Decides after Nate Silver prattling on about it over and again for the second half of last year. The bolded part is why Silver is better than 90% of folks out there. Narciss posted:Soon we'll be repeating that whole process again, but with the general election. You already see plenty of "Trump has NO chance he CANNOT beat Clinton". This doesn't follow at all. Solkanar512 fucked around with this message at 16:50 on Mar 3, 2016 |
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Mar 3, 2016 16:48
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The cop who arrested Sandra Bland has been fired a mere ~9 months after she hung herself in her cell. He faces a misdemeanor charge and might have to serve a whole year in jail and might have to pay a whole $4000 fine.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:53
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Kilroy posted:Heh, the Drake equation of contemporary Presidential politics. Just keep adding stages until you get odds that feel right! Eh, hindsight is 20/20 and the first stage of coping with the unimaginable is denial. From what's been reported, it appears that stage lasted until ~December. It's easy to say he was crushing it in the polls, but so was Jeb, Carson, and many, many other failed candidates in elections past. I find it hard to blame Nate for his having denied this - he may be a statistician, but he is still human and has his own bias. It's possible that he could be just as dismayed by all of this. Denial Anger Depression/Detachment Bargaining Acceptance Apply that model to the establishment GOP and you just see this varying cycle of coping/grief and it appears denial is finally past. It's stunning. Boon fucked around with this message at 17:01 on Mar 3, 2016 |
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Mar 3, 2016 16:53
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People, including most of us, simply didn't believe that the polls were accurate until we had some actual elections to confirm them. Even then they way overstated his standing in IA.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:55
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Those of you with Facebook should go to Romney's page and check out the comments section under his speech announcement. Amazing.
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Mar 3, 2016 16:59
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Solkanar512 posted:This doesn't follow at all. Often the stated reasons for the general being unwinnable for him are the same as those quoted in the primary. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/06/17/why-no-one-should-take-donald-trump-seriously-in-1-very-simple-chart/ quote:Among Republicans -- you know, the people who decide the identity of their party's presidential nominee -- Trump has a net negative 42 rating. As in 23 percent of Republicans had a favorable view of Trump while 65 percent(!) had an unfavorable one. Trump is now polling at twice his previous favorability rating. That's not just unfavorable to favorable, that's "I dislike this man and will not vote for him" to "I will vote for him over every other candidate." Between Clinton and Trump, who has the best chance to improve how the public sees them over the course of the general election? Narciss fucked around with this message at 17:02 on Mar 3, 2016 |
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Mar 3, 2016 16:59
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computer parts posted:Again, it's really strange that people focus on the insurance companies. I guess because that's who they deal with directly. It also helps that private insurance is the one element in the entire clusterfuck that government can straight-up excise. "All Americans can now opt into medicare" ends the private health insurance model in America as it exists today, cuts ~10% of the costs up front, and replaces a consortium of bickering and largely apathetic insurers with an eight hundred pound gorilla that hospital systems and pharmaceutical companies are suddenly forced to negotiate with. The system still would have a ton of problems, but private insurers' consistently choosing to pick fights with their policy holders rather than the people screwing them on the grounds that the sick and dying don't have the kind of legal resources a hospital network does would no longer be one of them.
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Mar 3, 2016 17:00
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Unzip and Attack posted:Those of you with Facebook should go to Romney's page and check out the comments section under his speech announcement. Amazing. I can almost feel the spittle flying at the keyboard from this one. quote:Back stabber. You loved Trumps endorsement and money back when you ran and LOST in 2012, now you and the establishment are on a mission to destroy and change the will of the people.
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