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That's the thing, it's going to be tough betting on these things since none of them are going to be trying to win at this point. They have switched to full on panic, keep Trump from 1237 mode. So whereas if Rubio were trying to win, he'd never gently caress with Idaho, he's been shipped out to say he loves Idaho just to keep Trump's delegate count low.
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Mar 3, 2016 19:51
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pathetic little tramp posted:That's the thing, it's going to be tough betting on these things since none of them are going to be trying to win at this point. They have switched to full on panic, keep Trump from 1237 mode. So whereas if Rubio were trying to win, he'd never gently caress with Idaho, he's been shipped out to say he loves Idaho just to keep Trump's delegate count low. Might be good for Trump, what with Rubio/Cruz/Casich continuing to split the not-trump vote in a more targeted manner. Plus, as doubtful as it is, who knows if Carson people will join the Trump camp given how Cruz ratfucked him.
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Mar 3, 2016 19:56
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i do not understand the rnom market at all
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Mar 3, 2016 20:11
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Idaho has a 20% threshold. Louisiana and Mississippi also do but Trump's going to crush both. The other states this weekend and Monday are all 0-10% and therefore each extra vote is worth less delegates. You can either read this as "Idaho is winnable" or "Rubio won't hit 20% in LA or MS anyway so why try". Cruz should hit 20% in both naturally so he's probably trying to win Idaho for real. Just to be clear, though, the 538 tracking thing has Trump on track with 130 of the next 271 delegates and he's probably going to win about 150. Abel Wingnut posted:i do not understand the rnom market Overreaction. This'll happen a few more times this cycle after every time someone important flails around a bit. The market is made up of people that don't want to be the last holding Trump shares and they'll sell whenever they can. This is a really good buying opportunity as long as you time the flips right. I sold 8K at 83% before it corrected. Adar has issued a correction as of 20:17 on Mar 3, 2016 |
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Mar 3, 2016 20:11
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Adar posted:Idaho has a 20% threshold. Louisiana and Mississippi also do but Trump's going to crush both. The other states this weekend and Monday are all 0-10% and therefore each extra vote is worth less delegates.
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Mar 3, 2016 20:19
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Idaho is totally unpredictable for me. Mormons, Jesus freaks and militia racists will each break for the three candidates. I actually have little faith Trump can win a lot of states west of the Mississippi. Oregon and Arizona are the most likely imo
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Mar 3, 2016 20:19
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For me, RNOM is trying to figure out when it's exactly going to bottom out for Trump (could go even lower after debate) then buy up again.
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Mar 3, 2016 20:24
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Who will speak the most at tonight's debate? It was Rubio for the debate without Trump in January, and Cruz for the other one in January and the one in February. I'm buying a few cheap Trump No shares.
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Mar 3, 2016 20:25
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I thought at the last debate Cruz and Rubio would go at it like the had been - turns out they actually both attacked Trump. I simply can't see him being anything but on the defense from more attacks tonight, which means more response time. (totally buying in a good few cheap Kasich shares for the debate once they bottom out, c'mon Kasich hail mary)
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Mar 3, 2016 20:29
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I hope Obama finishes trolling the Senate soon and actually nominates someone. Most hopefully someone not even on the board at the moment so I get a really nice payout.
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Mar 3, 2016 20:39
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I've got $5 on Trump NO for the most debate speaking time as my gamble tonight
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Mar 3, 2016 20:47
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Oh, and it looks like the market for the debate closes when it starts, instead of 30 minutes in, just in case anyone missed that. 
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Mar 3, 2016 20:53
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Abel Wingnut posted:i do not understand the rnom market Yeah what it this. Romney gives a speech about why Trump is bad - do people think it's really going to finally sway voters against Trump?
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Mar 3, 2016 21:11
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I listened to Romeny for about 4 minutes before I had to turn off the livestream. I remembered all the reasons he was a terrible candidate during those 4 minutes
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Mar 3, 2016 21:14
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railroad terror posted:I listened to Romeny for about 4 minutes before I had to turn off the livestream. I remembered all the reasons he was a terrible candidate during those 4 minutes I mean, honestly his speech was good but only if you're like any sane person and already agree with it. It's not going to convince anyone who isn't already opposed to Trump. Maybe it'll embolden them, but at this point all Romney and co are doing is hurting the GOP's chances in the general by rallying and justifying anti-Trump feelings too late to stop him.
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Mar 3, 2016 21:18
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alright jents, who's in this with me? all aboard the cruz train 
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Mar 3, 2016 22:19
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Swear to god my Romney.Run better not be locked up for more than a week 
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Mar 3, 2016 23:04
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Trump YES looking to be on a downward dip in MI for anyone who wants on that. Also, no debate question markets? Aw.
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Mar 3, 2016 23:04
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Ninkobei posted:alright jents, who's in this with me? Godspeed, goon
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Mar 3, 2016 23:05
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Necc0 posted:Swear to god my Romney.Run better not be locked up for more than a week I sold it for a bit less than I wanted. Still, free $70. I'll take it.
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Mar 3, 2016 23:16
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I still have other money to play with so I'll let it ride until I need it for something else. edit: omg it's back up to $.20 you loving idiots what are you doing
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Mar 3, 2016 23:45
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These Romney markets are so insane, I bought in too early and now I'm stuck until people come to their senses 
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Mar 3, 2016 23:47
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ROMNEY!!! I'm doubling down
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Mar 3, 2016 23:48
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It's amazing, I've made over 200 dollars in the past 24 hours just playing both sides of ROMRUN
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Mar 3, 2016 23:49
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God loving damnit 
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Mar 3, 2016 23:53
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Sorry Necc0, ain't no gettin offa this train we're on
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Mar 4, 2016 00:02
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 BIDEN MARKET'S BACK BABY
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Mar 4, 2016 00:05
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Necc0 posted:
haha I thought you were being literal and rushed to check the site
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Mar 4, 2016 00:07
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I've never even come close to maxing a market but if this gets even close to 50/50 I will dump everything I have into it.
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Mar 4, 2016 00:10
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So what's the plan on Romney? Max out no and sell after Trump wins Florida?
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Mar 4, 2016 00:15
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nachos posted:So what's the plan on Romney? Max out no and sell after Trump wins Florida?
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Mar 4, 2016 00:23
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max out yes and collect your winnings when romney is nominated
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Mar 4, 2016 00:23
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Thinking of just buying hundreds of Kasich OH NO, there's no way he can win right? It's 50 cents for no. Could it be a doubler?
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Mar 4, 2016 00:44
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one thing i really hate about this site: you cannot put in a sell order for more shares than you have just convert the excess to buying "No" you ding dongs
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Mar 4, 2016 00:52
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pathetic little tramp posted:Thinking of just buying hundreds of Kasich OH NO, there's no way he can win right? It's 50 cents for no. Could it be a doubler?
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Mar 4, 2016 00:56
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GWBBQ posted:He's in 4th place and 21 points behind Trump This isn't really the correct answer, the correct answer is that it's Trump+5 right now at 31/26.
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Mar 4, 2016 01:04
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pathetic little tramp posted:Thinking of just buying hundreds of Kasich OH NO, there's no way he can win right? It's 50 cents for no. Could it be a doubler? I bought a bunch of Trump YES in OH at 44c. If you read my earlier posts in this thread you'll see that I based this on absolutely nothing concrete.
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Mar 4, 2016 01:21
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Flavahbeast posted:max out yes and collect your winnings when romney is nominated Please Don't Troll™
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Mar 4, 2016 01:22
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Per RCP's last poll, Trump is +13 in KY as of 2/26 Per RCP's last poll, Trump is +17 in IL as of 2/24 (+15.5 average with a poll that ended 2/20) Current prices: 72/74 in IL, 72/73 in KY  Not just RNOM that's (imo) overreacting to Romney's speech and ignoring demographics/pollsWish I hadn't lost so much in Minnesota and Alaska so I had more to bet here...
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Mar 4, 2016 01:24
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thethreeman posted:Per RCP's last poll, Trump is +13 in KY as of 2/26 you lost money in two states with sparse polling, where trump was assumed to be ahead but lost badly now you are proclaiming that trump is a must buy in two more sparsely-polled states? seems like you've lost the plot a little bit
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Mar 4, 2016 01:32
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