USPOL March

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Shakenbaker: Nov 14, 2005; Grimey Drawer

Fried Chicken posted:

Let's go to Joe Biden at the Gridiron Dinner

Is it too much to ask for another four years?

# ? Mar 6, 2016 15:17

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 16:56

ufarn: May 30, 2009

Lizard Combatant posted:

Hi USpol, casual AUSpol observer here.
I'm curious as to the actual likelihood of Trump getting ratfucked (a delightful expression by the way, love it) out of the nomination. Is this really the uncharted waters y'all are claiming and secondly, is there any data predicting a higher or lower voter turnout in the primary? Or is it too early to tell?

Jane Mayer just published a New Yorker article saying the Koch Brothers will likely support Donald Trump in the GE, albeit with less enthusiasm than malleable candidates like Rubio. Fox News headed by your fellow countryman is also pivoting to supporting Trump.

Given that the GOP is basically a subsidiary of those two entities at this point, the only variable seems to be a brokered convention at the nomination. Also, Reince Priebus seems like the most incompetent and clueless guy in the world, and the GOP have so far shelved any plans to spend money attacking Trump.

Republicans fall in line. Except Ted Cruz, perhaps.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 15:19

Lizard Combatant: Sep 29, 2010; I have some notes.

ufarn posted:

Jane Mayer just published a New Yorker article saying the Koch Brothers will likely support Donald Trump in the GE, albeit with less enthusiasm than malleable candidates like Rubio. Fox News headed by your fellow countryman is also pivoting to supporting Trump.

Given that the GOP is basically a subsidiary of those two entities at this point, the only variable seems to be a brokered convention at the nomination. Also, Reince Priebus seems like the most incompetent and clueless guy in the world, and the GOP have so far shelved any plans to spend money attacking Trump.

Republicans fall in line. Except Ted Cruz, perhaps.

Makes sense, so it's just wishful thinking from the thread at this point.

Except

ufarn posted:

Fox News headed by your fellow countryman

lol, he's yours now.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 15:24

ufarn: May 30, 2009

Lizard Combatant posted:

lol, he's yours now.

I'm European, he most certainly is not.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 15:28

Lizard Combatant: Sep 29, 2010; I have some notes.

ufarn posted:

I'm European, he most certainly is not.

Ah, my apologies.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 15:28

ufarn: May 30, 2009

Lizard Combatant posted:

Ah, my apologies.

He fortunately kept his tentacles to the British press and stayed out of the rest of Europe's business. Thanks again, Thatcher.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 15:33

ploots: Mar 19, 2010

ufarn posted:

Fox News ... is also pivoting to supporting Trump.

What are they doing to explicitly support him? Didn't they hit him with Trump U and prepared refutations in the last debate?

Sure, they cover him 24/7, but that's more about keeping viewers than holding him up as the future of the party.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 15:46

Fried Chicken: Jan 9, 2011; Don't fry me, I'm no chicken!

Tom Guycot posted:

So, is Trump's bellow expectations performance today a signal he's finally winding down and will get overtaken? He's gotta burn out soon right?

Here's a counterintuitive theory for you - As the primary heads into more diverse states, with less white electorates, Trump will perform better. Not because he does well with minorities (which is what that idea usually refers to) but because he does best with whites who live near nonwhites and don't like that they do

# ? Mar 6, 2016 16:29

RevKrule: Jul 9, 2001; Thrilling the forums since 2001

SNL pulled out the hottest of all the takes for Trump's newest commercial.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qg0pO9VG1J8

# ? Mar 6, 2016 16:29

Rygar201: Jan 26, 2011; I AM A TERRIBLE PIECE OF SHIT.

Please Condescend to me like this again.

Oh yeah condescend to me ALL DAY condescend daddy.

Check out @mattyglesias's Tweet: https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/706494088665759745?s=09

My God. We need a PunditSay smilie.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 16:30

The Larch: Jan 14, 2015; by FactsAreUseless

Rygar201 posted:

Check out @mattyglesias's Tweet: https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/706494088665759745?s=09

My God. We need a PunditSay smilie.

That feels like a gross misuse of "ace in the hole".

# ? Mar 6, 2016 16:37

Rygar201: Jan 26, 2011; I AM A TERRIBLE PIECE OF SHIT.

Please Condescend to me like this again.

Oh yeah condescend to me ALL DAY condescend daddy.

I'd like to think that's :thejoke:

but it's hard to tell with these people.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 16:40

Fried Chicken: Jan 9, 2011; Don't fry me, I'm no chicken!

Jarmak posted:

Oh gently caress off with your conspiracy theory bullshit. The quote you posted was clearly commenting on the fact that if his dad wasn't a piece of poo poo he wouldn't have ended up running around with people who were targets for drone strikes.

You have no idea what you are talking about.

He wasn't "running around with people who were targets for drone strikes" Abdulrahman was not a member of AQAP. He was not "operational", as the term goes, not helping plan while not formally a member. He was "running around", he was a kid who hadn't seen his father in 2 years, a kid who wanted his father to stop and come back to the family before he was killed, a kid who snuck out of the family home to go looking for him. While looking for his father he met with his second cousin at an outdoor restaurant and was killed there.

That "he was really meeting with 6 other militants and this was justified collateral damage" is the conspiracy theory, it turns out that the ringleader they claimed he met with and they killed in the strike is still alive.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 16:54

Fried Chicken: Jan 9, 2011; Don't fry me, I'm no chicken!

we live in a nightmare world

The Return of DIY Abortion

quote:

DURING oral arguments last week before the Supreme Court in Whole Woman�s Health v. Hellerstedt, Justice Elena Kagan noted that she was struck by the clear relationship between abortion restrictions in Texas and the closing of abortion clinics. �It�s almost like the perfect controlled experiment as to the effect of the law, isn�t it?� she said. �It�s like you put the law into effect, 12 clinics closed. You take the law out of effect, they reopen.�

How women respond to these closings, however, is another story.

We do not have large enough surveys to discern behavior in different states or to track how it has changed over time � and in any case, people may not feel comfortable sharing the truth in a survey.

Google searches can help us understand what�s really going on. They show a hidden demand for self-induced abortion reminiscent of the era before Roe v. Wade.

This demand is concentrated in areas where it is most difficult to get an abortion, and it has closely tracked the recent state-level crackdowns on abortion.

In 2015, in the United States, there were about 119,000 searches for the exact phrase �how to have a miscarriage.� There were also searches for other variants � �how to self-abort� � and for particular methods. Over all, there were more than 700,000 Google searches looking into self-induced abortions in 2015.

For comparison, there were some 3.4 million searches for abortion clinics and, according to estimates by the Guttmacher Institute, there are around one million legal abortions a year.

The 700,000 searches included about 160,000 asking how to get abortion pills through unofficial channels � searches like �buy abortion pills online� and �free abortion pills.�

There were tens of thousands of searches looking into abortion by herbs like parsley or by vitamin C. There were some 4,000 searches looking for directions on coat hanger abortions, including about 1,300 for the exact phrase �how to do a coat hanger abortion.� There were also a few hundred looking into abortion through bleaching one�s uterus and punching one�s stomach.

The state with the highest rate of Google searches for self-induced abortions is Mississippi, which now has one abortion clinic. Eight of the 10 states with the highest search rates for self-induced abortions are considered by the Guttmacher Institute to be hostile or very hostile to abortion. None of the 10 states with the lowest search rates for self-induced abortion are in either category.

Search rates for self-induced abortion were fairly steady from 2004 through 2007. They began to rise in late 2008, coinciding with the financial crisis and the recession that followed. They took a big leap in 2011, jumping 40 percent. The Guttmacher Institute singles out 2011 as the beginning of the country�s recent crackdown on abortion; 92 provisions that restrict access to abortion were enacted. There was not a comparable increase in searches for self-induced abortions in Canada, which has not cracked down.

Of course, we cannot know from Google searches how many women successfully give themselves abortions, but evidence suggests that a significant number may. One way to test this is to compare abortion and birth data.

In 2011, the last year with complete state-level abortion data, women living in states with few abortion clinics had many fewer legal abortions.

Compare the 10 states with the most abortion clinics per capita (a list that includes New York and California) to the 10 states with the fewest abortion clinics per capita (a list that includes Mississippi and Oklahoma).

Women living in states with the fewest abortion clinics had 54 percent fewer legal abortions � a difference of 11 abortions for every 1,000 women between the ages of 15 and 44.

Women living in states with the fewest abortion clinics also had more live births. However, the difference was not enough to make up for the lower number of abortions. There were six more live births for every 1,000 women of childbearing age.

In other words, there appear to have been some missing pregnancies in parts of the country where it was hardest to get an abortion. Self-induced abortions could be playing a role, although more research must be done on rates of pregnancy and unintentional miscarriage in different regions.

One recent survey in Texas also reported a surprisingly high number of attempted self-induced abortions. It found that 4.1 percent of Texas women were sure or suspected that their best friend had tried a self-induced abortion. The researchers asked about best friends because women may not feel comfortable admitting their own attempts. In fact, so much secrecy surrounds abortion today that it is likely that many women would not know that their closest friends had tried a self-induced abortion.

According to another survey, which was published in Sociological Science, 34 percent of Americans who have been involved in an abortion � either they had one or they were the potential father � disclosed this to no one else. Among those who did tell others, they told an average of 1.2 people. We can expect that people would be even less likely to inform friends and family members about self-induced abortions.

All this work is preliminary. It will take years before researchers fully make sense of how to interpret this new data. But there is an unambiguous fact in Google search data that the eight justices of the Supreme Court and everyone else should know. In some parts of the United States, demand for self-induced abortion has risen to a disturbing level.

Google searches are a weak substitute for an actual survey and study. But messy, poorly categorized data is still data. And it isn't looking good.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 17:03

lfield: May 10, 2008

Fried Chicken posted:

That "he was really meeting with 6 other militants and this was justified collateral damage" is the conspiracy theory, it turns out that the ringleader they claimed he met with and they killed in the strike is still alive.

Yeah, they murdered that kid.

Even if the lie that he was meeting with terrorists was true, justifying extrajudicial killing of your own citizens (minors, at that) with guilt by association is pretty frightening all by itself. Guy was unlucky to have a name like al-Awlaki, if he was lily-white and called Kevin Thompson or something it would have been a huge scandal.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 17:11

Rygar201: Jan 26, 2011; I AM A TERRIBLE PIECE OF SHIT.

Please Condescend to me like this again.

Oh yeah condescend to me ALL DAY condescend daddy.

That depends, does the name Rachel Corrie mean anything to you?

# ? Mar 6, 2016 17:13

tecnocrat: Oct 5, 2003; Struggling to keep his sanity.

Reports in that Nancy Reagan has passed away.

Edit: The Republican field is about to get even more crazy now.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 17:43

happyhippy: Feb 21, 2005; Playing games, watching movies, owning goons. 'sup; Pillbug

tecnocrat posted:

Reports in that Nancy Reagan has passed away.

Edit: The Republican field is about to get even more crazy now.

OBAMA KILLED HER TO FORCE.....something on us.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 17:46

Grundulum: Feb 28, 2006

tecnocrat posted:

Reports in that Nancy Reagan has passed away.

Edit: The Republican field is about to get even more crazy now.

I don't see the connection between those two lines.

Or was that second line just a general comment on the state of the primary season?

# ? Mar 6, 2016 17:50

computer parts: Nov 18, 2010; PLEASE CLAP

Grundulum posted:

I don't see the connection between those two lines.

Or was that second line just a general comment on the state of the primary season?

If you remember when Reagan died, it got hectic.

Probably not so much for Nancy though.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 17:52

Sir Tonk: Apr 18, 2006; Young Orc

Trump arranged to have Nancy killed to distract from his negative press. Does he have no shame?

# ? Mar 6, 2016 17:53

tecnocrat: Oct 5, 2003; Struggling to keep his sanity.

Grundulum posted:

I don't see the connection between those two lines.

Or was that second line just a general comment on the state of the primary season?

The link for Cruz/Rubio to claim the Reagan Mantle, this becomes a "We all mourn Nancy, wasn't Ron a great President, I'll be more like Ron than (Insert other candidate here)".

I'm betting also another round of "Let's name everything after Reagan" Senatorial dick swinging starts up between the two of them.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 17:59

happyhippy: Feb 21, 2005; Playing games, watching movies, owning goons. 'sup; Pillbug

Death used to segue into an attack on Moochelle in 5....4.....3....2....

# ? Mar 6, 2016 17:59

Jarmak: Jan 24, 2005

Fried Chicken posted:

You have no idea what you are talking about.

He wasn't "running around with people who were targets for drone strikes" Abdulrahman was not a member of AQAP. He was not "operational", as the term goes, not helping plan while not formally a member. He was "running around", he was a kid who hadn't seen his father in 2 years, a kid who wanted his father to stop and come back to the family before he was killed, a kid who snuck out of the family home to go looking for him. While looking for his father he met with his second cousin at an outdoor restaurant and was killed there.

That "he was really meeting with 6 other militants and this was justified collateral damage" is the conspiracy theory, it turns out that the ringleader they claimed he met with and they killed in the strike is still alive.

Quoting from that dumbass Atlantic article and trying to pass it off as your own knowledge does not make you sound like you know what you're talking about.

So again gently caress off with your nonsense conspiracy theories. The government isn't going to spend the time and resources tracking and striking an innocent 16 year old kid just because they didn't like his dead dad. Especially when its obvious what kind of political poo poo storm it would cause.

Your smoking gun isn't shocking in the least bit, especially considering it was like the third time we had claimed to have gotten al-banna.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 18:06

silicone thrills: Jan 9, 2008; I paint things

Does this mean the war on drugs can finally be over?

# ? Mar 6, 2016 18:07

Frabba: May 30, 2008; Investing in chewy toy futures

Tigntink posted:

Does this mean the war on drugs can finally be over?

Probably the opposite, with people coming out of the woodwork to advocate against dismantling her legacy or whatever.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 18:08

FilthyImp: Sep 30, 2002; Anime Deviant

Tigntink posted:

Does this mean the war on drugs can finally be over?

Nancy died before she could see a groundswell of support for legal pot, the gateway drug!

As for other drugs? Probably not. We'll see the NE model of advocating for treatment and leniency if a drug ends up taking over the suburbs.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 18:10

ufarn: May 30, 2009

That sound you hear is the stampede of Republicans trying to go to the funeral for some of that Reagan PR.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 18:22

happyhippy: Feb 21, 2005; Playing games, watching movies, owning goons. 'sup; Pillbug

ufarn posted:

That sound you hear is the stampede of Republicans trying to go to SPEAK at the funeral for some of that Reagan PR.

ftfy

# ? Mar 6, 2016 18:25

tecnocrat: Oct 5, 2003; Struggling to keep his sanity.

happyhippy posted:

ftfy

Exactly. This just became the Republican establishments chance to pick one candidate for everyone to rally around, against Trump. They won't let both Cruz or Rubio speak, who they select will be a pretty clear signal.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 18:29

Slate Action: Feb 13, 2012; by exmarx

tecnocrat posted:

Exactly. This just became the Republican establishments chance to pick one candidate for everyone to rally around, against Trump. They won't let both Cruz or Rubio speak, who they select will be a pretty clear signal.

Watch them still pick Rubio, lol

# ? Mar 6, 2016 18:30

Frabba: May 30, 2008; Investing in chewy toy futures

Having removed himself from the fray early on, a fresh and rested Scott Walker heeds the call.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 18:33

Boot and Rally: Apr 21, 2006; 8===D; Nap Ghost

Fried Chicken posted:

The Return of DIY Abortion

quote:
For comparison, there were some 3.4 million searches for abortion clinics and, according to estimates by the Guttmacher Institute, there are around one million legal abortions a year.

Wow. That is way more than I would have suspected.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 18:33

ufarn: May 30, 2009

tecnocrat posted:

Exactly. This just became the Republican establishments chance to pick one candidate for everyone to rally around, against Trump. They won't let both Cruz or Rubio speak, who they select will be a pretty clear signal.

Yeah, about that

https://twitter.com/bgittleson/status/706293678919315456

https://twitter.com/ReaganWorld/status/706016004816695296

# ? Mar 6, 2016 18:35

computer parts: Nov 18, 2010; PLEASE CLAP

FilthyImp posted:

As for other drugs? Probably not. We'll see the NE model of advocating for treatment and leniency if a drug ends up taking over the suburbs.

Unless black people do it a bunch.

(Note: Crack cocaine is less potent than powder)

# ? Mar 6, 2016 18:36

Huge_Midget: Jun 6, 2002; I don't like the look of it...

All of the conservative heroes are dying one by one. Reagan, Thatcher, Scalia, and now Nancy. Do you hear that, conservatives? It's the inexorable march of time and progress hear to destroy all of your icons and erase all of your hideous policies. Bask in the knowledge that soon all of the Boomers will be dead and your party will cease to exist. It will be studied as being a blip on the radar of terrible fiscal policies, openly racist ideologies, warmongering, torture, and the antithesis of social progress. Trump is the last horseman of the conservative apocalypse, and the keening wails and gnashing of their teeth is music to my ears.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 18:36

Unzip and Attack: Mar 3, 2008; USPOL May

Because it's just to delicious not to share.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 18:39

Youth Decay: Aug 18, 2015

Mr. Nice! posted:

It was his family's name until his dad or whoever changed it after moving to the US. John Oliver got people to start using it because he's salty about Trump giving Jon Stewart poo poo for changing his name instead of sticking with Leibowitz.

I think the point was to separate the man from the brand. Trump has made a living putting his name all over random poo poo - Trump Towers, Trump University, Trump Vodka, Trump Steaks, Trump Trump Trump Trump. That's why he's so easy to make memes of - there's no long business pitch, just TRUMP which is synonymous with yooge and luxurious. Calling him Donald Drumpf diminishes him to just the man, just a racist orange loon.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 18:42

Sir Tonk: Apr 18, 2006; Young Orc

Good to see that Romney's Trump assault is going well.

# ? Mar 6, 2016 18:42

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 16:56

Youth Decay: Aug 18, 2015

ufarn posted:

Yeah, about that

https://twitter.com/bgittleson/status/706293678919315456

https://twitter.com/ReaganWorld/status/706016004816695296

Ronald's other son endorsed Bernie Sanders, of course.

Youth Decay fucked around with this message at 20:04 on Mar 6, 2016

# ? Mar 6, 2016 18:47

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