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Concerned Citizen posted:After your stock market and PredictIt losses, it might be all you can afford... I do love windows...
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Mar 7, 2016 23:19
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G-Hawk posted:Our new Ohio poll: Trump 38, Kasich 35, Cruz 15, Rubio 5. Lots of underlying good numbers for Kasich though
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Mar 7, 2016 23:33
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Don't do it yet, wait for Trump to win a state or two tomorrow. If he wins Michigan you'll see your shares go way up.
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Mar 7, 2016 23:34
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Aliquid posted:Don't do it yet, wait for Trump to win a state or two tomorrow. If he wins Michigan you'll see your shares go way up. this is what I am doing
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Mar 7, 2016 23:34
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Yeah that's what I'm going to try to do, but honestly it's now more of a coin flip instead of such a sure thing, so it's not like you're guaranteed to lose money.
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Mar 7, 2016 23:55
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Markets reacting to rumors in the news that Rubio being advised to drop out before Florida.
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Mar 7, 2016 23:55
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Shear Modulus posted:Markets reacting to rumors in the news that Rubio being advised to drop out before Florida. So the 1 cent shares are no longer available? nooooo
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Mar 7, 2016 23:58
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pathetic little tramp posted:So the 1 cent shares are no longer available? nooooo lol but the trump florida nos i bought dropped a bunch but mostly recovered. not too much of a reaction i guess
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Mar 7, 2016 23:59
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Aliquid posted:Don't do it yet, wait for Trump to win a state or two tomorrow. If he wins Michigan you'll see your shares go way up.
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Mar 8, 2016 00:02
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Shear Modulus posted:lol blame me i reduced my shares a lot on that news to reduce exposure and profit take. I'm the market shooter
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Mar 8, 2016 00:06
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It doesn't even matter if Rubio drops now, the rumors alone are enough to finish tanking him on Tuesday and that's not going to help his Florida numbers any. And yes, Trump would snap call winning FL and losing Ohio. It's possible he goes 0 for 4 tomorrow and his medium case is something like 2 close wins, but winning FL while Kasich takes OH would counter the Cruz narrative almost completely. The time to buy Cruz is tonight (and then sell the gently caress out of him in 48 hours)
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Mar 8, 2016 00:16
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zen death robot posted:oh man i hope you aren't still banking on mo going trump because it'll probably go cruz (bible belt) hey, most of the bible belt has already voted for trump
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Mar 8, 2016 00:22
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Man, I went back to check on romney running and boy are there some really mad people in the comments.
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Mar 8, 2016 00:30
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Garrand posted:Man, I went back to check on romney running and boy are there some really mad people in the comments. drat, those are some hilarious comments.
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Mar 8, 2016 00:36
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Adar posted:It doesn't even matter if Rubio drops now, the rumors alone are enough to finish tanking him on Tuesday and that's not going to help his Florida numbers any. if trump goes 0/4 tomorrow, i'd be shocked if he won more than 1 race on 3/15, and i'd say the medium case is 0. losing michigan and mississippi after huge leads and huge demographic advantages would basically be the death knell of his campaign.
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Mar 8, 2016 00:37
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zen death robot posted:oh man i hope you aren't still banking on mo going trump because it'll probably go cruz (bible belt) Concerned Citizen posted:hey, most of the bible belt has already voted for trump Evangelicals love trump. Big league!
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Mar 8, 2016 00:38
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*hyperventilates* can't stump the trump, can't stump the trump, can't stump the trump https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/706987901767143424
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Mar 8, 2016 01:04
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Arkane posted:if trump goes 0/4 tomorrow, i'd be shocked if he won more than 1 race on 3/15, and i'd say the medium case is 0. losing michigan and mississippi after huge leads and huge demographic advantages would basically be the death knell of his campaign.
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Mar 8, 2016 01:06
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Thoughts on taking advantage of the different time zones the GOP races are in tomorrow? If Trump gets good signals out of MI and MS early after those polls close, may push up the price of Trump.Yes in Idaho and Hawaii, which both close at least 3 hrs later
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Mar 8, 2016 01:08
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Peachstapler posted:I'm looking at your posts in YCS and it seems you don't like Trump very much. Do you bet on him winning? At no point have I thought that Donald Trump will be the nominee, but I've been careful in picking my spots betting against him
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Mar 8, 2016 01:21
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What's the consensus on who Florida early voting helps? RedState is claiming that it's Rubio, but they are not exactly an unbiased player http://www.redstate.com/jaycaruso/2016/03/07/rubio-leads-trump-big-in-early-florida-voting/
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Mar 8, 2016 01:31
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Zeta Taskforce posted:What's the consensus on who Florida early voting helps? RedState is claiming that it's Rubio, but they are not exactly an unbiased player Rubio was at his peak a few weeks ago so I imagine early voting helps him the most. He's been in freefall ever since though. Now there is a front page CNN story on advisors telling him to drop out before Florida. True or not, it's not pretty for him right now.
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Mar 8, 2016 01:41
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Zeta Taskforce posted:What's the consensus on who Florida early voting helps? RedState is claiming that it's Rubio, but they are not exactly an unbiased player conventional wisdom is that Trump had a banked lead like he did in other states that conventional wisdom was likely a poor assumption
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Mar 8, 2016 01:45
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I'd sooner bet on Cruz winning Florida than Rubio at this point
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Mar 8, 2016 01:51
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I picked up a couple thousand of Cruz to win Mississippi at 9 cents. Seems like this should be trading at around 15 cents? Interestingly, buying Cruz in Mississippi is also essentially a bet on Trump not winning any states tomorrow, which is a semi-cheap hedge if you're in deep on the Trump nomination contract.
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Mar 8, 2016 01:51
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Is Phil Bryant a popular governor? I know Brownback endorsing Rubio was the kiss of death in Kansas.
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Mar 8, 2016 02:06
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L-Boned posted:Is Phil Bryant a popular governor? I know Brownback endorsing Rubio was the kiss of death in Kansas. Well who knows what impact it'll have, but it's a signal to basically ignore Kasich and ignore Rubio and put all your effort behind Cruz if you want to stop Trump in the state of Mississippi. This is probably in the top 3 of Trump's strongest state in the US, especially with his recent journey into the world of white supremacy. If you look at all of the bordering counties (all of which have already voted), Trump won every single one, often with huge margins. Trump is correctly a huge favorite. But the reason to be optimistic for Cruz is very little competition/it'll be pretty much a head to head, no early voting, and signs of Trump starting to fade in states that have polled the past few days. If I had to guess (and we're sorta guessing at this point since the only poll was a week ago from a poo poo firm), Trump is likely ahead by mid to high single digits, so there is enough variance possible off of that for a Cruz win somewhere in the range of 10-20% of the time. Again, pure guesswork on my part. I think 10 cents and below is good value, in the absence of new information. Arkane has issued a correction as of 02:38 on Mar 8, 2016 |
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Mar 8, 2016 02:34
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Bryant has a 59% approval rating.
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Mar 8, 2016 02:38
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Peachstapler posted:Bryant has a 59% approval rating. That means probably 80%+ among Republicans.
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Mar 8, 2016 03:01
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nachos posted:Rubio was at his peak a few weeks ago so I imagine early voting helps him the most. He's been in freefall ever since though. Now there is a front page CNN story on advisors telling him to drop out before Florida. True or not, it's not pretty for him right now. Early voting in Florida started last Monday at the earliest, with absentee ballot drop offs(if their county does that) being placed in their locations about a week before that. Florida is also a closed primary where you had to be registered by February 16th. I believe the general zeitgeist is that early voters are voting for Rubio, Cruz or Kasich(they're not voting for Kasich) as campaigns with a good ground game like to lock in supporters votes as soon as possible. Trump supporters are more likely to wait until the day of the election. At least anecdotally, all 5 people who insisted on telling me about their candidate at work in the last week have been Trump supporters and none of them were wearing an I Voted sticker. I work at an early voting location. Edit: Which is the better lotto gamble, Kaisich Yes/Trump No in Michigan or Cruz Yes/Trump No in Mississippi?
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Mar 8, 2016 03:29
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Gyges posted:Edit: Which is the better lotto gamble, Kaisich Yes/Trump No in Michigan or Cruz Yes/Trump No in Mississippi?
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Mar 8, 2016 03:43
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Gyges posted:Early voting in Florida started last Monday at the earliest, with absentee ballot drop offs(if their county does that) being placed in their locations about a week before that. Florida is also a closed primary where you had to be registered by February 16th. I believe the general zeitgeist is that early voters are voting for Rubio, Cruz or Kasich(they're not voting for Kasich) as campaigns with a good ground game like to lock in supporters votes as soon as possible. Trump supporters are more likely to wait until the day of the election. I'm inclined toward Kasich in Michigan but both are really close. I'm counting on the deep south to stay solid for Trump, but a Cruz upset wouldn't shock me either.
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Mar 8, 2016 03:43
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i'm surprised clinton's in the low 80s in MO. feel like she should be in the 90s, for sure
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Mar 8, 2016 03:47
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Arkane posted:I picked up a couple thousand of Cruz to win Mississippi at 9 cents. Seems like this should be trading at around 15 cents? Trump could easily win Michigan while losing Mississippi. His Michigan polling looks very strong and I really doubt he'll lose there. Mississippi is less certain (though I think 90% Trump is a reasonable rate). My big position is... Cruz No in Hawaii! And Rubio No in Idaho, which will hopefully sell at 99c so I can put more into playing the swings.
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Mar 8, 2016 03:48
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Abel Wingnut posted:i'm surprised clinton's in the low 80s in MO. feel like she should be in the 90s, for sure There was one late poll that was very good for Sanders (52-47) so the Bernie people are hanging their hopes on that. He might yet pull it off! (I'm not betting on the state and 80c for Clinton is a solid buy.)
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Mar 8, 2016 03:51
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I'm putting all my hope and faith in racists voting for trump.
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Mar 8, 2016 03:56
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Weird trading in the Romney running market. I don't think there is any new news although still lots of sour grapes on the 2012 amendment from 6 weeks ago not counting.
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Mar 8, 2016 03:57
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a cop posted:I'm putting all my hope and faith in racists voting for trump. So Trump Yes in every market then?
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Mar 8, 2016 04:01
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Gyges posted:So Trump Yes in every market then? The markets with the most racists, yes. Trump should take Mississippi handily.
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Mar 8, 2016 04:06
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| # ? May 21, 2024 21:22 |
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I love how Trump is always the highest-traded within any individual market, even if he isn't the leader.
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Mar 8, 2016 05:45
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