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Yeah a Trump win is totally plausible, I'm just saying don't expect the general voting population to resemble GOP primary voters. The race is gonna look a lot different in six months.
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# ? Mar 8, 2016 22:47 |
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# ? May 26, 2024 17:13 |
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Helsing posted:The estimates I've seen are that he'd need a big increase in white turnout and he'd need to win about 7 out of 10 white males, which is more than any president in modern memory has managed to do. That or he'd need to really sell himself to some of the women or ethnic voting blocks who currently express negative opinions of him in polls. Nevada went for Trump.
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# ? Mar 8, 2016 22:47 |
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Wyld Thang posted:Nevada went for Trump. Yes, and he defied expectations by winning about half the Hispanic votes in play. But that doesn't change the fact that last time in Nevada Hispanics voted 77%-22% for Obama over Romney or that pollsters don't find that most Hispanics have an extremely negative view of Trump. I absolutely don't write the God Emperor off, I think he's done a remarkable job of defying political expectations and it's clear his campaign has the dankest memes. It's just that much in the way that everyone lectures the Bernouts about how their candidate hasn't been hit with real attacks yet, I'd largely say the same of Trump. Republicans saying "how could you be so mean to George W. Bush don't you know he kept us safe?!?!?!? " doesn't count.
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# ? Mar 8, 2016 22:54 |
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Helsing posted:It's just that much in the way that everyone lectures the Bernouts about how their candidate hasn't been hit with real attacks yet, I'd largely say the same of Trump. Hahaha what? The last 2 months has been nothing but the GOP establishment throwing EVERYTHING at Trump to see what sticks. KKK, small penis, Hitler comparisons, scam university, foreign workers, it goes on and on. As for Trump winning 7 in 10 white males to win the election - I can see it happening. The Dems (whether the nominee is Hillary or Bernie) have nothing to offer other than finger-wagging at us about how bad we should feel for our microaggressions and passive racism, and how much better we have it than everyone else. I've voted Democrat most of my life, but the party seems determined to drive people like me into the arms of an increasingly moderate GOP. Narciss has issued a correction as of 23:07 on Mar 8, 2016 |
# ? Mar 8, 2016 23:01 |
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I like the part of this thread where people were accusing Majorian and other non-Trump supporters of engaging in semantics and then No Mans Land said that you have to use the word "invade" to be an interventionist. Majorian really is doing God's work by talking to people as if they are people who should be taken seriously.
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# ? Mar 8, 2016 23:07 |
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as a trump supporter, literally the only things that make me think negatively about him from his past are Trump University and hiring the 300 illegal polands and never paying them (although this was done through a subcontractor, still...he had to have known). The rest of the attacks are flailing hitjobs. I think he's seen the worst of the real attacks and the rest are lies from here on out.
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# ? Mar 8, 2016 23:12 |
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Hilary will deploy an army of consultants to turn out every african american, millenial, Hispanic, single woman and university educated city dweller to the polls. Many of the lines that actually helped Trump in the Republican primary will be fodder for motivating these groups to vote against him. She won't have to lie about him because what he earnestly says and believes is repulsive to a non-trivial part of the voting American population. If the same coalition of voters who supported Obama turn out in similar numbers in 2016 the Democrats will win by an even larger margin than before. On the other hand if millenials stay at home, if the economy shits itself and depresses Democratic voter turn out, if Trump can keeps defying all expectations, if a terrorist attack shakes everything up, then say hello to President Trump with a super majority in Congress and a full Supreme Court.
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# ? Mar 8, 2016 23:24 |
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Helsing posted:if a terrorist attack shakes everything up, then say hello to President Trump Hadn't thought of that, but a Paris-level attack in the U.S. is well within the realm of possibility. Good luck to Hillary beating Trump if something like that happens before the general election.
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# ? Mar 8, 2016 23:25 |
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A news report about all the D&D posters in this thread sweating like Little Rubio when they think about a Trump! Presidency. https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...c4ec_story.html quote:Psychologists and massage therapists are reporting ‘Trump anxiety’ among clients The Trump supporters!!!! The support is coming from INSIDE THE HOUSE Helical Nightmares has issued a correction as of 23:31 on Mar 8, 2016 |
# ? Mar 8, 2016 23:28 |
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No Mans Land posted:as a trump supporter, literally the only things that make me think negatively about him from his past are Trump University and hiring the 300 illegal polands and never paying them (although this was done through a subcontractor, still...he had to have known). The rest of the attacks are flailing hitjobs. I think he's seen the worst of the real attacks and the rest are lies from here on out. The torture stuff doesn't bother you? Fidel Castronaut posted:I like the part of this thread where people were accusing Majorian and other non-Trump supporters of engaging in semantics and then No Mans Land said that you have to use the word "invade" to be an interventionist. Majorian really is doing God's work by talking to people as if they are people who should be taken seriously. Why thank you. Give a man enough rope, etc etc. Helical Nightmares posted:A news report about all the D&D posters in this thread sweating like Little Rubio when they think about a Trump! Presidency. If anything, you should probably hit me on feeling overly confident that there won't be a Trump presidency. Because I'm pretty drat confident.
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# ? Mar 8, 2016 23:35 |
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Narciss posted:an increasingly moderate GOP.
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# ? Mar 8, 2016 23:37 |
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https://twitter.com/bencjacobs/status/692155362552778752
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# ? Mar 8, 2016 23:39 |
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Majorian posted:The torture stuff doesn't bother you? Not really, no. They kill civilians, fuckem. Uniformed combatants are covered under the Geneva Convention anyway. So its just the lowlifes fighting for allah that will get the shaft.
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# ? Mar 8, 2016 23:49 |
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Helsing posted:if a terrorist attack shakes everything up I don't think a terrorist attack helps Trump. It's all fun and games but when people are scared for their lives, they are going to bet on the tested horse and that's when Hillary's experience as secretary of state will help. The right won't see it that way but they never were going to anyway. I really don't see people thinking that the guy who, just this year, talked to a general for the first time is going to keep them safe if the US gets attacked.
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# ? Mar 8, 2016 23:51 |
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Helical Nightmares posted:For some, Trump’s diatribes against undocumented immigrants, Mexicans and Muslims evoke unpleasant flashbacks of dictators. For others, his raw-toned insults conjure memories of high school bullies. Hahahahaha
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# ? Mar 8, 2016 23:57 |
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Majorian posted:The torture stuff doesn't bother you? I agree ISIS members should get to choose between water boarding, a bullet and reading your posts.
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# ? Mar 8, 2016 23:58 |
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T r a v i s posted:Hahahahaha His Strange Squinty Eyes. Racists.
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# ? Mar 8, 2016 23:59 |
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Fidel Castronaut posted:when people are scared for their lives, they are going to bet on the tested horse and that's when Hillary's experience as secretary of state will help. Ah yes, they will turn to the woman who couldn't protect her employees in the country she helped 'liberate'. I'm not sure her 'experience' is actually an asset.
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 00:05 |
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Narciss posted:Ah yes, they will turn to the woman who couldn't protect her employees in the country she helped 'liberate'. I'm not sure her 'experience' is actually an asset. lets hope nobody asks her how to set up their outlook accounts
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 00:09 |
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Fidel Castronaut posted:I don't think a terrorist attack helps Trump. I don't know. Trump went after George W Bush for pointless wars so I could definitely see him capitalizing on another Obama administration failure, particularly after Obama's "ISIS is done"/next day Paris terror attacks. Fidel Castronaut posted:It's all fun and games but when people are scared for their lives, they are going to bet on the tested horse and that's when Hillary's experience as secretary of state will help. The right won't see it that way but they never were going to anyway. This is good reasoning, and I see your point; but I'm just not convinced we have an understanding on where the American voters will turn if there is another terror attack during an election year.
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 00:09 |
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InsanityIsCrazy posted:lets hope nobody asks her how to set up their outlook accounts
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 00:10 |
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No Mans Land posted:Not really, no. They kill civilians, fuckem. What if we, you know...don't have proof that they're actually terrorists? That has happened pretty frequently in our not-too-distant past, and it turned out that they weren't actually terrorists.
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 00:14 |
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Do you guys not remember the fiasco with no fly lists and rendition mix ups? The we only do it to the bad guys reasoning is awfully naive. I hope you guys weren't cheering for Abu Ghraib
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 00:20 |
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Majorian posted:What if we, you know...don't have proof that they're actually terrorists? That has happened pretty frequently in our not-too-distant past, and it turned out that they weren't actually terrorists. Thems the breaks?
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 00:20 |
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trump supporters itt are guys that got beaten up a lot in high school and found that they liked it
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 00:20 |
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No Mans Land posted:Despite the narrative about women and minority groups, I don't think Trump will have an issue with them going by the numbers. This election will be decided individual by individual. going by the numbers he's going to be slaughtered by them; he won 46% of the latino primary voters in NV, which if you crunch the numbers is .035% of the state's latino population. that's just going by the numbers, you understand. in nevada, 80,000 people voted in the democratic caucus, of which 20% were latino by exit polling, or 16,000. who won the latino vote is disputed, so let's go with the exit polling and say she won 46%. that's 7,360. trump won 45% of the latino caucus-goers for the Rs. that sounds nice, until you realize that they made up 8% of the electorate, or 5,990. 45% of that is 2,695, or a bit more than a third of what hillary got. losing a demographic like that is a trouncing. it gets even more damning when you look at black voters: 61% of the voters in the SC dem primaries were black, or 224,169. she won 84% of them, or 188,302. on the republican side, black voters were 1%, or 7,379. we don't know at what rate they broke for trump, but let's be generous and say he did twice as well with them as with the overall voter base. that's 65%, or 4,796. that means hillary did nearly 40 times better with black voters than trump. when you just go by percentages within each primary, you ignore the fact that minority voters are not split 50/50 between parties, and since independents choose which primary to be part of, you can get an accurate picture of which way they're likely to lean in the general. i'm not saying trump has no path to the white house-- he does-- but the idea that discontented minority voters are going to get him there is a fantasy. No Mans Land posted:Thems the breaks? do you feel equally comfortable with the idea that suicide attacks against the West are justified because "we can't be 100% sure that the people we're shooting were involved in the bombing and invasion of our country, but them's the breaks?" DAD LOST MY IPOD has issued a correction as of 00:23 on Mar 9, 2016 |
# ? Mar 9, 2016 00:21 |
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Narciss posted:Ah yes, they will turn to the woman who couldn't protect her employees in the country she helped 'liberate'. I'm not sure her 'experience' is actually an asset. She has a picture of her watching bin Laden get killed. Of course, it wasn't like she orchestrated the mission but Obama and his administration definitely rode that all the way to his second inauguration. Her foibles aren't going to hurt her. She simply knows more about the middle east than Trump does and she can turn on the "kill our enemies" rhetoric when she wants to. Not defending her or our foreign policies but her credibility exists on this front whereas Trump has no record. In fact, he has military brass contradicting him on his proposals to bomb everything and torture everybody.
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 00:25 |
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DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:
Now that you mention it, yes I do Justified by them, not us
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 00:27 |
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Fidel Castronaut posted:She has a picture of her watching bin Laden get killed. Of course, it wasn't like she orchestrated the mission but Obama and his administration definitely rode that all the way to his second inauguration. Her foibles aren't going to hurt her. She simply knows more about the middle east than Trump does and she can turn on the "kill our enemies" rhetoric when she wants to. you should probably read narciss's post history before engaging with him fyi No Mans Land posted:Now that you mention it, yes I do i don't really understand what you're getting at with that second sentence; they think it's ok, but we don't? ok, but i'm not talking moral relativism. i applaud your moral consistency, if that's what this is, but i believe that suicide attacks against civilians are immoral (hot take!) because they're almost guaranteed to hurt innocents. likewise, i believe that widespread extraordinary rendition and torture are immoral, because it's almost guaranteed to hurt innocents. also torture doesn't work, but that's a separate issue entirely. i think the reason we are fighting isis is that they are barbaric and cruel and are trying to subject innocents to that cruelty and barbarism, and that if all we have to offer is more barbarism and cruelty we might as well not waste lives and treasure and let isis get on with it. DAD LOST MY IPOD has issued a correction as of 00:31 on Mar 9, 2016 |
# ? Mar 9, 2016 00:27 |
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DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:going by the numbers he's going to be slaughtered by them; he won 46% of the latino primary voters in NV, which if you crunch the numbers is .035% of the state's latino population. that's just going by the numbers, you understand. Republicans like to trot out the tiny handful of minorities who support them so they can scream about who the real racists are. Remember how excited they were to find that black guy who loves the Confederacy when the whole confederate flag dust up happened?
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 00:28 |
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Al! posted:Republicans like to trot out the tiny handful of minorities who support them so they can scream about who the real racists are. Remember how excited they were to find that black guy who loves the Confederacy when the whole confederate flag dust up happened? You mean poo poo similar to how Gloria Steinem called women who voted for Bernie "boy chasers"? Both parties are guilty of race/sex/prejudice baiting.
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 00:32 |
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Helical Nightmares posted:You mean poo poo similar to how Gloria Steinem called women who voted for Bernie "boy chasers"? spoken like a real bernie bro
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 00:33 |
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InsanityIsCrazy posted:spoken like a real bernie bro Am I a bernie bro or Trump nazi? Which is it!!!
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 00:35 |
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No Mans Land posted:Thems the breaks? Okay, so you're just a sociopath then.
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 00:55 |
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No Mans Land posted:Not really, no. They kill civilians, fuckem. Uniformed combatants are covered under the Geneva Convention anyway. So its just the lowlifes fighting for allah that will get the shaft. theres no actual proof these guys are terrorists
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 00:57 |
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oh no and some of the germans killed during WWII weren't nazis
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 01:14 |
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Re: Trump and the Military Industrial Complex. http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2016/03/02/trump-is-right-about-defense-spending-and-that-should-scare-you/ Opinion piece by Matthew Gault is a defense reporter for War Is Boring. He produces and co-hosts "War College," Reuters' military podcast quote:Donald Trump is right about defense spending – and that should scare you
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 01:15 |
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Baloogan posted:oh no and some of the germans killed during WWII weren't nazis Unironically firebomb Dresden again.
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 01:16 |
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Helical Nightmares posted:Unironically firebomb Dresden again. oh no we have to arrest them all individually and give every soldier and officer and citizen a trial otherwise it would be wrong to kill them
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 01:19 |
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# ? May 26, 2024 17:13 |
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Baloogan posted:oh no we have to arrest them all individually and give every soldier and officer and citizen a trial otherwise it would be wrong to kill them Stop!!! or I'll complain about you to my massage therapist!
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# ? Mar 9, 2016 01:20 |