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StevePerry
Sep 5, 2003

don't stop believin

Louisgod posted:

loving them with a live rat
I knew something about Ted Cruz reminded me of Patrick Bateman.

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Mr. Pumroy
May 20, 2001


:waycool: pacific rim shirt,

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

Little_wh0re posted:

I've missed a few days. What broke joementum?

The same thing that broke all of us.

Pirate Radar
Apr 18, 2008

You're not my Ruthie!
You're not my Debbie!
You're not my Sherry!

MaxxBot posted:

Yeah because as we know only left-wing feminist men ever get laid, and as a result 95% of men are virgins :rolleyes:.

Yep, if you're not one of the Nice Guys you have no chance

Xenophon
Jun 28, 2003

by FactsAreUseless
Grimey Drawer
:siren:Missouri poll:siren:

Article here.

Trump 36
Cruz 29
Rubio 9
Kasich 8
Undecided 17

Lots of undecideds is not necessarily good for Trump.

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven
https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/708328767366832128

Maoist Pussy
Feb 12, 2014

by Lowtax
Sex with a Hillary voter would involve a condom, gloves, dental dam, and informational pamphlet on sexual assault, all manufactured at the lowest possible cost by foreign slave labor.

TyroneGoldstein
Mar 30, 2005

I don't think my eyes can roll hard enough at this.

Face it dude, they're going to choose the NYer over you.

Bro Dad
Mar 26, 2010



i think he might be trying a little too hard :ohdear:

Patter Song
Mar 26, 2010

Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.
Fun Shoe

Xenophon posted:

:siren:Missouri poll:siren:

Article here.

Trump 36
Cruz 29
Rubio 9
Kasich 8
Undecided 17

Lots of undecideds is not necessarily good for Trump.

Missouri could end up being bad news for Trump. MO is 3 delegates per congressional district winner + a big 28 delegate pot to the statewide winner. It'd be easy to see a Cruz victory, even a small one, looking like 43 delegates for Cruz vs 9 for Trump.

If Cruz wins Missouri and Kasich wins Ohio, Trump's path to 1237 will start requiring some extreme stunts like hitting New York State's 50% WTA trigger.

radical meme
Apr 17, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Sp1r0_Agn3W posted:

first hand experience here that you do in fact get laid after voting trump

You get hosed or you get laid? There is a difference.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Patter Song posted:

Missouri could end up being bad news for Trump. MO is 3 delegates per congressional district winner + a big 28 delegate pot to the statewide winner. It'd be easy to see a Cruz victory, even a small one, looking like 43 delegates for Cruz vs 9 for Trump.

If Cruz wins Missouri and Kasich wins Ohio, Trump's path to 1237 will start requiring some extreme stunts like hitting New York State's 50% WTA trigger.

Good. Maximum chaos--and remember, if Cruz pulls off the impossible, he's even less likable than Trump.

Mr. Pumroy
May 20, 2001


huh, dees' latest work is pretty subdued

Jared Kush
Mar 4, 2015

by zen death robot

Majorian posted:

Nah, I'm happily married, in no small part because I don't support misogyny.;)


:drat:

spanky69
Nov 5, 2004
I THINK sba HAS LOST HIS MIND. WOOOOOO DOGGIES PUPPIES KITTENS CRAP TURDS, love sba
Fun Shoe

Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:

In the realm of sex acts, what would giving someone a Ted Cruz mean

Cleveland Steamer

Patter Song
Mar 26, 2010

Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.
Fun Shoe

Alter Ego posted:

Good. Maximum chaos--and remember, if Cruz pulls off the impossible, he's even less likable than Trump.

Cruz isn't going to come close to overtaking Trump in the delegate counter, especially after Trump wins Florida. A brokered convention delegate count would probably look something like:

1237 to win

Trump 1182
Cruz 900
Other 390

Or thereabouts, give or take about 50 from any of those counts.

Assepoester
Jul 18, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
Melman v2
http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a42932/republican-debate-acting-like-adults/

Der Kyhe
Jun 25, 2008

spanky69 posted:

Cleveland Steamer

Loose Cleaveland Steamer

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

Louisgod posted:

are you sure, see how hosed up Bernie supports look

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCjC9BjPgoc

woww

lmfao thanks for the link

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost

Patter Song posted:

Cruz isn't going to come close to overtaking Trump in the delegate counter, especially after Trump wins Florida. A brokered convention delegate count would probably look something like:

1237 to win

Trump 1182
Cruz 900
Other 390

Or thereabouts, give or take about 50 from any of those counts.

What power does the nebulous "establishment" have to influence the delegates if there is a brokered convention?

Mister Fister
May 17, 2008

D&D: HASBARA SQUAD
KILL-GORE


I love the smell of dead Palestinians in the morning.
You know, one time we had Gaza bombed for 26 days
(and counting!)
Nice job finding outliers, morons, we all know most Bernie supporters look like this

DAD LOST MY IPOD
Feb 3, 2012

Fats Dominar is on the case


Pick posted:

What power does the nebulous "establishment" have to influence the delegates if there is a brokered convention?

lots, because the delegates are picked by state parties, not the candidates, and most state party establishments are going to pick delegates that will do what they're told

mike12345
Jul 14, 2008

"Whether the Earth was created in 7 days, or 7 actual eras, I'm not sure we'll ever be able to answer that. It's one of the great mysteries."





Mister Fister posted:

Nice job finding outliers, morons, we all know most Bernie supporters look like this



Can't wait for the inevitable American Apparel support of Bernie (plus ad campaign).

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006
Honestly, If DJT doesn't think he will get enough delegates, he will use "The deal" as an excuse to drop out and run independent

paranoid randroid
Mar 4, 2007

mike12345 posted:

Can't wait for the inevitable American Apparel support of Bernie (plus ad campaign).

if he makes it to California, im sure there will be some really skeezy American Apparel Models 4 Bernie billboards popping up around SoCal

Pirate Radar
Apr 18, 2008

You're not my Ruthie!
You're not my Debbie!
You're not my Sherry!
SMALL HANDS / GIFTED HANDS 2016

Patter Song
Mar 26, 2010

Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.
Fun Shoe

DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:

lots, because the delegates are picked by state parties, not the candidates, and most state party establishments are going to pick delegates that will do what they're told

True in many states, though hardly all of the states. Some very big states, including Illinois, have delegate slates selected by candidates, and in the really bizarre case of Pennsylvania, the delegates are directly elected by voters with the "primary" between the candidates not actually affecting delegate selection.

The thing is, while a lot of Trump's delegates might be people who despise him, once those delegates are released they are free agents and these are also some of the most politically-tuned in and savvy people in the GOP. Herding delegates is tricky when each one of them believes in his heart that he's the reincarnation of Marc Hanna or Roscoe Conkling (if you don't know who those people are, you're a normal person, but if you're a crazy political history nerd, you'll know exactly what I mean) and thinks that this is his great opportunity to be a legendary GOP wheeler and dealer.

Golden Bee
Dec 24, 2009

I came here to chew bubblegum and quote 'They Live', and I'm... at an impasse.
The odd thing about this primary is that, even with 14 candidates on the Repub side, there was no moral center to rally around. Rand Paul was right on a few things (American interventionalism is bad!) but everyone seems more strident than John "yell at the Senate" McCain.

shiksa
Nov 9, 2009

i went to one of these wrestling shows and it was... honestly? frickin boring. i wanna see ricky! i want to see his gold chains and respect for the ftw lifestyle

paranoid randroid posted:

if he makes it to California, im sure there will be some really skeezy American Apparel Models 4 Bernie billboards popping up around SoCal

a brand new age of political ads shot in the style of nebulously legal stag films produced in a wood-paneled basement.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

MaxxBot posted:

Yeah because as we know only left-wing feminist men ever get laid, and as a result 95% of men are virgins :rolleyes:.

Nah, just the Trump supporters. We all know they're a bunch of angry basement dwellers.

paranoid randroid
Mar 4, 2007

shiksa posted:

a brand new age of political ads shot in the style of nebulously legal stag films produced in a wood-paneled basement.

[in a dov charney voice] hike these FEEL THE BERN tights up to your ribs and bend over, honey. weve got a primary to win.

fade5
May 31, 2012

by exmarx

Bro Dad posted:

i think he might be trying a little too hard :ohdear:
If you look up tryhard in the dictionary, you will find this picture.

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost

Majorian posted:

Nah, just the Trump supporters. We all know they're a bunch of angry basement dwellers.

I have it on good authority they masturbate to anime.

DAD LOST MY IPOD
Feb 3, 2012

Fats Dominar is on the case


Patter Song posted:

True in many states, though hardly all of the states. Some very big states, including Illinois, have delegate slates selected by candidates, and in the really bizarre case of Pennsylvania, the delegates are directly elected by voters with the "primary" between the candidates not actually affecting delegate selection.

The thing is, while a lot of Trump's delegates might be people who despise him, once those delegates are released they are free agents and these are also some of the most politically-tuned in and savvy people in the GOP. Herding delegates is tricky when each one of them believes in his heart that he's the reincarnation of Marc Hanna or Roscoe Conkling (if you don't know who those people are, you're a normal person, but if you're a crazy political history nerd, you'll know exactly what I mean) and thinks that this is his great opportunity to be a legendary GOP wheeler and dealer.

the endorsement of the national review has signaled that the establishment has lined up behind ted cruz as the one who will save them; if trump comes to the convention shy of 1237, i would expect a second-ballot cruz victory. if it looks like it's heading that way the delegates will be aggressively courted in the weeks prior to the convention so there won't be a scramble on the floor when the first ballot fails. they'll all have fallen in line well in advance.

Patter Song
Mar 26, 2010

Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.
Fun Shoe
Tuesday 26 April 2016: Pennsylvania Presidential Primary.

54 of the Commonwealth's 71 delegates to the Republican National Convention will be directly elected (their names appear on the ballot) in a LOOPHOLE type primary, in which delegates are elected separately from a presidential preference. Each of the 18 Congressional District is allocated 3 delegates (54 = 18 districts × 3 delegates/district). Rule 8.4 of the Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania's Rules states that all delegates elected by Congressional District "...shall run at large within the Districts and shall not be officially committed to any particular candidate on the ballot.".
17 (10 base at-large delegates plus 4 bonus delegates plus 3 RNC delegates) of the Commonwealth's 71 delegates to the Republican National Convention delegates are bound for the 1st ballot to the candidate who receives the most votes in the Pennsylvania Presidential Primary. The delegates are released if the candidate withdraws, suspends, or terminates his/her campaign or publicly releases his/her delegates. [Rule 8.3]


If this race is still competitive by late April, people are going to discover the joys of loophole primaries. :)

The winner of the state gets 17 delegates WTA. The other 54 delegates are directly elected (3 per congressional district) and unpledged.

This has two serious ramifications. First, a GOP voter in heavily Democratic districts (like nearly unanimously Democratic downtown Philadelphia) have massively outsized weight in their delegate strength vs GOP areas in the center of the state. Second: You might not really know who the gently caress the person you're voting for in the delegate selection race would actually support on the Convention floor.

We're actually really lucky that only Pennsylvania opted to do a loophole primary this cycle.

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:

the endorsement of the national review has signaled that the establishment has lined up behind ted cruz as the one who will save them; if trump comes to the convention shy of 1237, i would expect a second-ballot cruz victory. if it looks like it's heading that way the delegates will be aggressively courted in the weeks prior to the convention so there won't be a scramble on the floor when the first ballot fails. they'll all have fallen in line well in advance.

All they have to do is to make Ted Cruz palatable to the party for a month in which no one votes and everybody runs stories about the number of dogs Cruz has vivisected over the years, then have him run competitively in New York which he personally insulted, followed by the rest of the Northeast a week later

GL with that

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

at this point i don't even know what i want, all of the remaining options are delightful

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

Patter Song posted:

This has two serious ramifications. First, a GOP voter in heavily Democratic districts (like nearly unanimously Democratic downtown Philadelphia) have massively outsized weight in their delegate strength vs GOP areas in the center of the state. Second: You might not really know who the gently caress the person you're voting for in the delegate selection race would actually support on the Convention floor.

You forgot the other two ramifications:

3)If Kasich gets kicked off the ballot, it's Trump vs. Cruz HU with the eastern portion of the state where Cruz might hit 20% of the vote accounting for well over half the delegates

4)Either way, Cruz will probably hijack a good chunk of those delegates, but having them make the difference on the second ballot is going to be the mother of all bad looks, so GL with that too

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty
the best option is still Trump winning and an actual bolt happening. if Trump loses I don't think he can consolidate his supporters into a genuine third party, but if Trump hostile-takeovers the GOP and the rubio-lovers in the establishment bolt they can probably gently caress things up together for a good long while

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crazy cloud
Nov 7, 2012

by Cyrano4747
Lipstick Apathy

evilweasel posted:

at this point i don't even know what i want, all of the remaining options are delightful

God really is love after all, it turns out

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