Auspol March: Trump for Prime Minister, Clive Palmer for Deputy

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Auspol March: Trump for Prime Minister, Clive Palmer for Deputy

«‹›79 »

tithin: Nov 14, 2003; [Grandmaster Tactician]

Burgeoning property empire

maybe this is why i'm seeing so many pre-bankrupt customers enter my patch of late

# ? Mar 11, 2016 10:22

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? Jun 3, 2024 16:26

Mad Katter: Aug 23, 2010; STOP THE BATS

Negligent posted:

yeah but the interest alone on a 25 year, $300,000 mortgage is $18,569 in the first 12 months, so by that logic, you can save more money by never buying a house

Yeah, but you'll be earning 90000% on your property in capital gains. Look at this chart of prices over the last 10 years.

# ? Mar 11, 2016 10:24

tithin: Nov 14, 2003; [Grandmaster Tactician]

Mad Katter posted:

Yeah, but you'll be earning 90000% on your property in capital gains. Look at this chart of prices over the last 10 years.

Property never goes down

# ? Mar 11, 2016 10:26

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

freebooter posted:

You can smell the panic in the real estate market, I guess it must be terrifying when the generation you were counting on to prop up the ponzi scheme has second thoughts:

http://www.realestate.com.au/news/confessions-of-a-firsthome-owner/news-story/dca447f3bbdfd779b2e56b14aa219ad1

That person is very proud they're raising a 3 person family in a bedsit.

Personally I plan to buy a $400k outer suburbs refurbished transformer junction box and live curled up like a snail.

This "please spend all your money on our ponzi scheme before my 15 investment properties bankrupt me!" propaganda is desperate as all gently caress.

# ? Mar 11, 2016 10:29

Graic Gabtar: Dec 19, 2014; squat my posts

tithin posted:

Burgeoning property empire

maybe this is why i'm seeing so many pre-bankrupt customers enter my patch of late

As exciting as that sounds tithin and I both know that means poo poo all for housing affordability across the board.

# ? Mar 11, 2016 10:36

SMILLENNIALSMILLEN: Jun 26, 2009

freebooter posted:

You can smell the panic in the real estate market, I guess it must be terrifying when the generation you were counting on to prop up the ponzi scheme has second thoughts:

http://www.realestate.com.au/news/confessions-of-a-firsthome-owner/news-story/dca447f3bbdfd779b2e56b14aa219ad1

quote:
quote:
I HAVE a confession to make: I’m a homeowner. And in some corners of the country that’s not something you want to say too loudly.

Love the persecution angle

# ? Mar 11, 2016 10:50

Graic Gabtar: Dec 19, 2014; squat my posts

Good news auspol, I've found just the thing for you...

http://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=642600327

# ? Mar 11, 2016 11:30

Anidav: Feb 25, 2010; ahhh fuck its the rats again

Did some Goon finally create Anidav Simulator? I think someone was making it and had some opening scenarios all written up and that link reminds me of that hilarious little project.

# ? Mar 11, 2016 13:44

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008

freebooter posted:

You can smell the panic in the real estate market, I guess it must be terrifying when the generation you were counting on to prop up the ponzi scheme has second thoughts:

http://www.realestate.com.au/news/confessions-of-a-firsthome-owner/news-story/dca447f3bbdfd779b2e56b14aa219ad1

First up against the wall.

# ? Mar 11, 2016 14:19

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008

Anidav posted:

Did some Goon finally create Anidav Simulator? I think someone was making it and had some opening scenarios all written up and that link reminds me of that hilarious little project.

http://store.steampowered.com/app/310080/

# ? Mar 11, 2016 14:20

Graic Gabtar: Dec 19, 2014; squat my posts

Jumpingmanjim posted:

http://store.steampowered.com/app/310080/

You realize we can do this all day?

# ? Mar 11, 2016 14:32

DancingShade: Jul 26, 2007; by Fluffdaddy

Graic Gabtar posted:

You realize we can do this all day?

And that's before looking at Steam Greenlight trailers.

# ? Mar 11, 2016 14:39

WhiskeyWhiskers: Oct 14, 2013; "هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)

Graic Gabtar posted:

You realize we can do this all day?

Not if LibertyCat has anything to say about it.

# ? Mar 11, 2016 14:48

birdstrike: Oct 30, 2008; i;m gay

Anidav posted:

Did some Goon finally create Anidav Simulator? I think someone was making it and had some opening scenarios all written up and that link reminds me of that hilarious little project.

it's not about you anidav

# ? Mar 11, 2016 21:13

Bogan King: Jan 21, 2013; I'm not racist, I'm mates with Bangladesh, the guy who sells me kebabs. No, I don't know his real name.

There is more money in backwater pocker machines than public transport in capital cities

# ? Mar 12, 2016 00:30

freebooter: Jul 7, 2009

Frogmanv2 posted:

Its still the same bullshit, but at least they sort of recognise that the current market is bullshit.

That's what I mean by panic - a few years ago they never would have dreamed to acknowledge that housing is overpriced, but now that it's getting traction in mainstream media, the narrative shifts to "OK it's hard but you still NEED to dedicate your life to owning a house."

# ? Mar 12, 2016 00:40

MaliciousOnion: Sep 23, 2009; Ignorance, the root of all evil

Bogan King posted:

There is more money in backwater pocker machines than public transport in capital cities

Source?

# ? Mar 12, 2016 01:19

tithin: Nov 14, 2003; [Grandmaster Tactician]

Graic Gabtar posted:

As exciting as that sounds tithin and I both know that means poo poo all for housing affordability across the board.

Pretty much.

That entire article's a call to people to invest in a shitbox in the middle of nowhere. Most people in my situation want a family home, we don't want a "burgeoning property empire" we want a damned house.

Investing more into the investment property market isn't going to make things cheaper

# ? Mar 12, 2016 02:02

Laserface: Dec 24, 2004

MaliciousOnion posted:

Source?

I work for a club (in a non service or gaming role) and the amount of money the poker machines pull in a month would make your fuckin head spin.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 02:06

Ora Tzo: Feb 26, 2016; HEEEERES TONYYYY

How much has Xenophon done about the pokies?
To me it looks like all he is doing is playing the game of politics.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 03:21

Synthbuttrange: May 6, 2007

Anidav posted:

Did some Goon finally create Anidav Simulator? I think someone was making it and had some opening scenarios all written up and that link reminds me of that hilarious little project.

No. But I am working on Aliens vs 'straya

# ? Mar 12, 2016 04:40

ASIC v Danny Bro: May 1, 2012; D&D: HASBARA SQUAD
CAPTAIN KILL

Just HEAPS of dead Palestinnos for brekkie, mate!

well

# ? Mar 12, 2016 04:41

MaliciousOnion: Sep 23, 2009; Ignorance, the root of all evil

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-11/mcgrath-float-and-sink-bodes-ill-for-australian-real-estate/7239330 posted:

McGrath float and sink bodes ill for Australian real estate
By business reporter Michael Janda

With talk of an Australian property bubble ramping up, few businesses stand more exposed than the nation's real estate agents.

One of the east coast's major players, McGrath, listed on the ASX in December and, if its share price since is any indication, Australian real estate is in trouble.

After listing at $2.10, the stock has lost more than a third of its value in just three months.

That does not surprise fund manager Roger Montgomery, who passed on the opportunity to buy in.

"When we're investing in a float we're looking for two things - we're looking for quality and we're looking for value," he told ABC TV's The Business program.

"For us, neither of those things, to the standard that we expect, were present in McGrath."

It is not that Mr Montgomery believes that real estate agencies are fundamentally a bad business.

Quite the opposite, with relatively low overheads and the potential for high profit margins, the fund manager believes they are a great investment ... at the right price and the right time.

Property 'in line for a correction', market pricing 30pc drop

However, Mr Montgomery points to record Sydney home prices - which have jumped 50 per cent in just the past three years - and record dwelling construction, especially apartments, as a risky combination.

"Wherever there's been an oversupply the prices have subsequently fallen and agents are in the firing line when property prices go down," he cautioned.

"We see a proliferation of real estate agents and new brands emerge during a property boom and we see them all wind up and consolidate again when the market comes off.

"And we think we're in line for a correction in property prices."

That has led Montgomery Investment Management to a valuation which suggests the pain is far from over for McGrath shareholders.

"It was around a dollar, rather than two dollars," he said.

"That was partly because of our assessment of the future, not just the company's performance to date."

Chris Savage from brokerage Bell Potter, which helped manage McGrath's float, is much more upbeat, valuing the company at $2.25.

He acknowledged that McGrath's profitability is extremely leveraged to the health of the east coast property market, and his positive outlook for the company is based on a more sanguine view of the prospects for Australian real estate.

"The share price is about 30 to 40 per cent below my valuation and about 30 to 40 per cent below where the IPO price was so, in very rough terms, you could argue that the market's anticipating a 30 to 40 per cent drop in the property market," he told The Business.

"Personally, I'm anticipating relatively flat volumes and pricing going forward for the short to medium term, and that's factored into obviously my forecast and valuation."

However, the principal of Parramatta-based real estate agency Just Think, Edwin Almeida, said the downturn Roger Montgomery warns of is already hitting western Sydney.

"We've identified some areas were properties have already actually gone backwards by anywhere between 8 and 15 per cent," he told The Business.

"Asking prices are dramatically being pulled back, in some parts of Sydney by up to 20 per cent."

Agents hit several ways by slowing property market

Not only does that mean reduced commissions, Mr Almeida said it also means a much longer wait for agents to get that cash as properties sit on the market for months instead of weeks.

"We're moving from 21 days, where you could almost be guaranteed an income from the sale of the property within three months, within 10 weeks you'd have money in the bank," he said.

"Now we're going possibly into even a five, six month period before we actually get paid."

Transaction volumes are also a key concern for agents and, while they may rise with forced or panic sales during a bust, Mr Almeida said clients tend to shift agents more often in a falling market where they cannot get the price they want.

"Just because you sold a hundred last month doesn't mean that you're gonna sell a hundred this month," he warned.

"It's all relative and it's all going to be controlled by market forces outside of the business."

That is why, in his other role as a business broker selling real estate agencies, Mr Almeida virtually ignores sales commissions when valuing a business.

"When I go and value a real estate office that's for sale we're actually placing most of the value - 90 per cent of the value - on the rent roll, 10 per cent would be the goods and chattels," he said.

"The rent roll is the properties that we manage for investors, for landlords, that gives us our bread and butter."

Mr Almeida said real estate agents collect about 5 per cent of rents as their fee for managing the properties, and this is their most stable source of income.

In McGrath's prospectus, the rent roll held by company-owned agencies made up only 11 per cent of pre-tax and interest profits (EBITDA), while sales commissions from company-owned agencies were 71 per cent of the firm's profits.

McGrath made 14 per cent of its financial year 2016 income through franchise fees from its non-company-owned offices.

That heavy reliance on sales commissions from company-owned offices leaves McGrath's earnings heavily exposed to fluctuations in the Sydney and south-east Queensland property markets.

Estate agent selling own business a 'red flag'

However, John McGrath and his co-owners would not be too concerned.

On Roger Montgomery's company valuation of a dollar per share, they have already realised most of the business' value in cash, while still retaining ownership of almost half of the listed firm.

Out of nearly $130 million raised in the float, about half was used to partially buy out McGrath's existing owners; another $31 million went to buy out the Smollen Group of McGrath franchises; $16 million paid off existing debts and $10 million covered float costs; that left only $8 million as working capital.

"So you haven't got much firepower to actually go and buy more practices if you really do want to expand," noted Mr Montgomery.

None of this should surprise shareholders - it was all clearly laid out in black-and-white in the prospectus.

Mr Savage also pointed out that the new share market-listed structure, growing cash reserves and lack of existing debt gives McGrath room to quickly raise money for takeovers.

"The cash increased to over $10 million at the half, so I think it's now about $13, $14 million," he said.

"Acquisitions can be funded by both cash and scrip, which is one of the reasons why I think McGrath wanted to list ... and they've also got a debt facility available, so put those three together and I think you've got sufficient funds for them to pursue acquisitions."

Whether the optimists are right and McGrath is currently undervalued on the basis of unfounded property bubble fears, or the pessimists are correct and worse is to come for its share price, after building his business from a single Sydney agency to over 80 in a network across NSW, Queensland, Victoria and the ACT, who can blame McGrath for cashing in.

However, Roger Montgomery is convinced the McGrath float is another cautionary tale of buying into IPOs when private owners are selling.

"When a highly knowledgeable, skilled and successful real estate agent is selling down their own exposure to their business, that for us is a red flag," he concluded.

Perhaps it should also be a red flag for those who steadfastly believe Australian property prices cannot crash.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 04:49

Urcher: Jun 16, 2006

Word cloud for February:

2016: J F

2015: J F M A M J J A S O N D

2014: J F M A M J J A S O N D

2013: A M J J A S O N D

Highlights from last month's thread:

MaliciousOnion posted:

Research has shown that seatbelts don't make buses that much safer. Between the higher position of seats, reduced amount of travel space between one seat and the next, and a heavier mass, the chance of injury is a WW2 Nazi Panther.

SynthOrange posted:

That's actually a genius move on their part. Have Abbott be Abbott for a three-month secondment, starting September.

Laserface posted:

I want to punch fat people who blame genetics for their actions. No you shouldnt speed, its against the law and dangerous to others (which in my 30 years of existing, I can put on muscle twice as quick as him with a pot belly and now I actually have some body definition besides a gut. if I put 100% of my effort behind this poo poo I would imagine if it DOES happen that it isn't sensible to be adults.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 05:13

Doctor Spaceman: Jul 6, 2010; "Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

Tasmania

# ? Mar 12, 2016 05:17

Bogan King: Jan 21, 2013; I'm not racist, I'm mates with Bangladesh, the guy who sells me kebabs. No, I don't know his real name.

MaliciousOnion posted:

Source?

No source, I can get a bus to Coles twice a week and get a bus to the pub with pokies 7 days a week.

I also got a speeding fine. 71km / hour in a 60 zone. Not bad for someone on a 7 speed pushbike.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 05:27

Anidav: Feb 25, 2010; ahhh fuck its the rats again

WELFARE CARS CROSSING DETENTION POINT

Writes Herald Sun Contributer.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 05:57

ASIC v Danny Bro: May 1, 2012; D&D: HASBARA SQUAD
CAPTAIN KILL

Just HEAPS of dead Palestinnos for brekkie, mate!

Hello, and welcome to A Current Affair. Tonight:

PEDESTRIANS CLAIM VOTING MEANS FRAUD.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 06:06

Lid: Feb 18, 2005; And the mercy seat is awaiting,
And I think my head is burning,
And in a way I'm yearning,
To be done with all this measuring of proof.
An eye for an eye
And a tooth for a tooth,
And anyway I told the truth,
And I'm not afraid to die.

ASIC v Danny Bro posted:

well

gently caress you Byron Bay Greens

# ? Mar 12, 2016 06:29

Graic Gabtar: Dec 19, 2014; squat my posts

Urcher posted:

Word cloud for February:

If I'm on that again it would be a sad indictment on you all as I didn't even post last month.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 07:53

birdstrike: Oct 30, 2008; i;m gay

Graic Gabtar posted:

If I'm on that again it would be a sad indictment on you all as I didn't even post last month.

Birdstrike posted:

it's not about you anidav

# ? Mar 12, 2016 07:56

Ian Winthorpe III: Dec 5, 2013; gays, fatties and women are the main funny things in life. Fuck those lefty tumblrfuck fags, I'll laugh at poofs and abbos if I want to

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-11/jensen-comedians-have-become-sanctimonious-televangelists/7239764

quote:

Is it just me, or have the comics of Australia turned into preachers, moralisers, and puritanical do-gooders, whose mission in life is not to make us laugh but to tell us what to think?

Now, at one level, this is exactly what good comedy does. It exposes folly, and helps us to see with moral clarity what is right and what is wrong.

But when it comes with a veneer of hip - from a dude in torn jeans and dreads, or from a guy in a natty suit on a yoof program sponsored by the government - then it feels like a bait-and-switch tactic.

Turn on, tune in for a laugh, and find yourself laughing at those with whom you disagree because, apparently, they are scum. They aren't cool, like us. You know, you and me, who just know so much better. Ha ha.

Exhibit A is Tim Minchin. Minchin is fancied by his fans as a latter-day William Gilbert. But doggerel sung to piano by a man trying to look like a waif is still doggerel. Rhyming it and singing it doesn't make it true, or even witty. He picks an easy target - Cardinal Pell - and heaps invective on him. Well, maybe it was deserved, but it was scarcely courageous, or radical, or outlandish, and it was as strong a piece of sanctimony as heard from any pulpit.

Exhibit B is Charlie Pickering. Pickering has recently moved from hosting Ten's newsfotainment show The Project to hosting his own ABC show The Weekly, from which he pontificates, well, weekly. In this recent piece on marriage redefinition, he moralised his way through six minutes of self-righteous sermonising, with an adoring studio audience bah-hahing at his every sly dig against those idiots who disagree with him.

This is Pickering's stock in trade. Let's not pretend he's doing anything less than scolding us, and preaching to us. He's a self-appointed prophet of liberal pieties.

Exhibit C is Adam Hills. Adam Hills has gone to England to make it big with his show The Last Leg. The Last Leg is more preachy than a televangelist's early morning show. The more moralistic it is, the less amusing it is.

The funniest thing Hills does is to call people with whom he disagrees 'dicks'. In fact, he seems to have given up on comedy altogether, and to have made his show a crash course in sweetly pious soft-liberal values. Want to know what to think, and how not to be a dick? Hills has got a half hour just for you. It is about as funny as a government pamphlet.

What's the problem with this moralising? The issue is not the piety per se, but the pretence that that's not what's going on. Why don't they all call themselves 'Reverend' and be done with? At least that would be honest. The pose of being an iconoclast, which adds to the comic an aura of authenticity, simply isn't convincing. These three aren't naughty boys, they are would-be messiahs.

They are actually deeply conservative, with a strong sense of universal and objective right and wrong, and a feeling of deep injustice when this sense is offended. They do not challenge the establishment and its values; they work for it, and preach them.

Only, it is not cool to own that out loud. You have to cover that with an ironic veneer if you want to be popular.

Dr Michael Jensen is the rector at St Mark's Anglican Church, Darling Point, NSW.

Agreed, thank god for Here Come the Habibs.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 08:22

MaliciousOnion: Sep 23, 2009; Ignorance, the root of all evil

Urcher posted:

Highlights from last month's thread:

MaliciousOnion posted:
Research has shown that seatbelts don't make buses that much safer. Between the higher position of seats, reduced amount of travel space between one seat and the next, and a heavier mass, the chance of injury is a WW2 Nazi Panther.

I don't remember saying that.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 08:29

MaliciousOnion: Sep 23, 2009; Ignorance, the root of all evil

Ian Winthorpe III posted:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-11/jensen-comedians-have-become-sanctimonious-televangelists/7239764

Agreed, thank god for Here Come the Habibs.

I'm sure Dr Jensen the Anglican rector has a completely unbiased view.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 08:32

DAAS Kapitalist: Nov 9, 2005; Jackass: The Mad Monk

Don't try this at home.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-11/jensen-comedians-have-become-sanctimonious-televangelists/7239764 posted:

Is it just me, or have the comics of Australia turned into preachers, moralisers, and puritanical do-gooders, whose mission in life is not to make us laugh but to tell us what to think?

Dr Michael Jensen is the rector at St Mark's Anglican Church, Darling Point, NSW.

When your day job is attempting to be the moral centre of the community, you know you've failed when literal clowns do a better job of it than you have been.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 08:34

Solemn Sloth: Jul 11, 2015; Baby you can shout at me,
But you can't need my eyes.

Imagine how dumb you'd have to be to be a progressive and support the australian labor party

# ? Mar 12, 2016 08:35

Zenithe: Feb 25, 2013; _{Ask not to whom the Anidavatar belongs; it belongs to thee.}

It's just everyone copying John Oliver anyway.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 08:41

Graic Gabtar: Dec 19, 2014; squat my posts

Ian Winthorpe III posted:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-11/jensen-comedians-have-become-sanctimonious-televangelists/7239764

Agreed, thank god for Here Come the Habibs.

That guy has no idea what's he is talking about.

Charlie Pickering and Adam Hills aren't comics.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 08:49

Ian Winthorpe III: Dec 5, 2013; gays, fatties and women are the main funny things in life. Fuck those lefty tumblrfuck fags, I'll laugh at poofs and abbos if I want to

MaliciousOnion posted:

I'm sure Dr Jensen the Anglican rector has a completely unbiased view.

Why should he be 'unbiased' and how exactly is this a criticism anyway? His job is sermonizing and he obviously recognizes the same tendencies in these 'comedians', which makes sense once you realize that their shtick is not to make people laugh, but to provided a surrogate church-going experience to deracinated, secular urbanites who secretly long for the communal transcendence of religious worship. 'Privilege' is a substitute for Original Sin while Racism, Homophobia, Judgement/Shaming and Sexism are all sinful acts......so given that different-looking people, gays, fatties and women are the main funny things in life, the very idea of a progressive comedian is dead in the water.

# ? Mar 12, 2016 09:13

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? Jun 3, 2024 16:26

Cleretic: Feb 3, 2010; Ignore my posts!
I'm aggressively wrong about everything!

Ian Winthorpe III posted:

Why should he be 'unbiased' and how exactly is this a criticism anyway? His job is sermonizing and he obviously recognizes the same tendencies in these 'comedians', which makes sense once you realize that their shtick is not to make people laugh, but to provided a surrogate church-going experience to deracinated, secular urbanites who secretly long for the communal transcendence of religious worship. 'Privilege' is a substitute for Original Sin while Racism, Homophobia, Judgement/Shaming and Sexism are all sinful acts......so given that different-looking people, gays, fatties and women are the main funny things in life, the very idea of a progressive comedian is dead in the water.

I really want to lay into you on this, but this particular type of comedian's actually perhaps something worth considering more directly, and this comparison actually has something of a point to it.

I'm not going to say they aren't comedians, because comedy is a crucial part of their package; being able to approach harsh topics and truths in a way that's easily digestible is a great part of why this type of thing happens. So instead I'm gonna call them Bullshit Callers, since that's the most important part of their job. It's something that grew out of Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, of course, but the Australians he names aren't even the only ones, they're just the most plain-faced about it and part of a recent movement. It's the same thing that the Chaser used to do in a far more crude form, what Shaun Micallef does with more of a comedic barrier, what John Safran did while aiming at different targets. Their role is, indeed, sort of between 'preacher' and 'journalist', by way of 'comedian'. They upturn the stories that may or may not be being covered on major outlets, but then rather than just say 'here are the facts, make of them what you will' they pick apart why these are relevant, and how we should feel about them as rational, compassionate people.

The thing is, that's actually a necessary thing to have right now. The current, Stewart/Colbert/Oliver style of things comes from a growing distrust of both the politicians causing these problems, and the media that are supposed to report them. When we can't trust the current government to do the right thing, the current opposition to push back on that, or even the media to report on the thing in a way that actually does anything about them, we turn to someone, anyone to do the job nobody else is. And so it falls to the comedians, who were at least paying attention to current affairs enough to crack jokes about it. And while pushing against that, some of them put on ties and decided to be a bit more professional in doing so, to be an authoritative truth-speaker that we're not getting from anywhere else.

It's by no means a bad thing, except for the fact that we shouldn't be in this position in the first place. It's a development in the media and political landscape that's strange if you think about it, but is a natural response to the current climate.

Cleretic fucked around with this message at 10:03 on Mar 12, 2016

# ? Mar 12, 2016 10:00

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Auspol March: Trump for Prime Minister, Clive Palmer for Deputy

«‹›79 »