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Kasich isn't going anywhere when he's the new establishment darling.
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Mar 16, 2016 16:15
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cheese eats mouse posted:Kasich isn't going anywhere when he's the new establishment darling. Bingo. This race just keeps getting interesting in new and exciting ways.
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Mar 16, 2016 16:16
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Someone bought my remaining 900 shares of Sanders Ohio Yes this morning. Berniebros are the new Ron Paul Guys.
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Mar 16, 2016 16:19
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Arkane posted:10 dollar bill market quote:The Secretary thanked Miranda for the ingenious way in which he has been able to tell Hamilton’s story and ignite a renewed interest in one of our nation’s founding fathers. Secretary Lew also reiterated his commitment to continue to honor Alexander Hamilton on the 10 dollar bill. https://medium.com/@USTreasury/in-photos-lin-manuel-miranda-visits-treasury-5d0b3bf42392#.bdo42i9ik Is that at all relevant?
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Mar 16, 2016 16:20
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This went through while I was sleeping. Sorry buddy! (always buy in increments of 100 or 69)
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Mar 16, 2016 16:21
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a cop posted:Bingo. This race just keeps getting interesting in new and exciting ways. I can see him dropping out next Tuesday when he fails to get anything in the West. Granted pass MO I don't know much about the Western Plains state demos. I know religious, but that can go to Trump or Cruz. Bernie's next hold out I think we'll be seeing is the Washington caucuses. Going to keep taking Bernie Bro money.
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Mar 16, 2016 16:32
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My new darling buy is Cruz in Arizona. Running at 15-20 Cents. Closed primary, Mormon population, some evangelicals, latinos. He has been the only candidate on TV there. I think it is closer to a tossup.
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Mar 16, 2016 16:42
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G-Hawk posted:My new darling buy is Cruz in Arizona. Running at 15-20 Cents. Closed primary, Mormon population, some evangelicals, latinos. He has been the only candidate on TV there. I think it is closer to a tossup. Ehhh it's possible but I think that's a fair price. Lots of republicans love Trump here, and even Kasich has appeal.
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Mar 16, 2016 16:44
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G-Hawk posted:My new darling buy is Cruz in Arizona. Running at 15-20 Cents. Closed primary, Mormon population, some evangelicals, latinos. He has been the only candidate on TV there. I think it is closer to a tossup.
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Mar 16, 2016 16:46
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Has Trump won 50% of a state yet? With Rubio out, I'm curious to see how things are going to wind up. Almost to the point of having TRUMP and one NOT TRUMP. I cannot imagine that there are a ton of Rubio voters with Trump second, but - who the hell knows?
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Mar 16, 2016 16:51
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C7ty1 posted:Has Trump won 50% of a state yet? ...and almost Massachusetts
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Mar 16, 2016 16:53
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There are no good markets right now :/
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Mar 16, 2016 17:55
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AHH FUGH posted:There are no good markets right now :/ Yeah I think I'll pull some out and go play blackjack
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Mar 16, 2016 18:06
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Looks like the debate is cancelled!
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Mar 16, 2016 18:06
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AHH FUGH posted:There are no good markets right now :/ Lots of free money sitting around to be picked up in the Missouri markets.
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Mar 16, 2016 18:15
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Vox Nihili posted:Lots of free money sitting around to be picked up in the Missouri markets.
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Mar 16, 2016 18:17
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Vox Nihili posted:Lots of free money sitting around to be picked up in the Missouri markets. yeah i dumped it all in there but it's like 2c/dollar
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Mar 16, 2016 18:17
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AHH FUGH posted:yeah i dumped it all in there but it's like 2c/dollar That's pretty good since it'll get resolved in like a day.
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Mar 16, 2016 18:20
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AHH FUGH posted:There are no good markets right now :/
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Mar 16, 2016 18:40
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I know AK went overwhelmingly for Obama but is 21-25c for Hillary reasonable? Closed caucus, so bonus to Hillary for Dems only, but also obviously a very white/working-class/anti-establishment state
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Mar 16, 2016 18:49
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Yeah after Sanders getting swept last night, you have to think momentum is as momentum does - and right now there are some skyhigh prices for Bernie YES in Alaska, Idaho, Utah, and Washington based on polls that came out pre-Tuesday beatdown.
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Mar 16, 2016 18:53
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I still think BROKERED.NO is a good buy. It's going to be very easy for Trump to start sweeping now that we're leaning heavily into winner-take-most/all states.
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Mar 16, 2016 19:07
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Necc0 posted:I still think BROKERED.NO is a good buy. It's going to be very easy for Trump to start sweeping now that we're leaning heavily into winner-take-most/all states. But doesn't he just have to lose one of those for his shot at an unbrokered convention dropping?
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Mar 16, 2016 19:13
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He only needs about half of the remaining delegates iirc. He can still lose plenty of states.
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Mar 16, 2016 19:15
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I feel like the RNC is really downplaying how devastating a convention fight is going to be. I wonder if they will come to their senses eventually.
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Mar 16, 2016 19:16
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thethreeman posted:I know AK went overwhelmingly for Obama but is 21-25c for Hillary reasonable? Closed caucus, so bonus to Hillary for Dems only, but also obviously a very white/working-class/anti-establishment state Do we know anything about the state further? I see an old poll from January with Clinton up 3. But I know there was also Cruz winning out over Trump...
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Mar 16, 2016 19:16
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Necc0 posted:He only needs about half of the remaining delegates iirc. He can still lose plenty of states. He could get low–mid forties and still hit 1237 because of the non‐proportional nature of the remaining delegate allocation.
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Mar 16, 2016 19:20
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nachos posted:I feel like the RNC is really downplaying how devastating a convention fight is going to be. I wonder if they will come to their senses eventually. Yeah it's also worth keeping in mind that Trump doesn't even need to pass the 50% mark to avoid a brokered convention. If he's within a few percentage points they'll just give it to him anyways to avoid the party from imploding.
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Mar 16, 2016 19:21
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nachos posted:I feel like the RNC is really downplaying how devastating a convention fight is going to be. I wonder if they will come to their senses eventually. I’d say crib from this LBJ ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnWCQakuJT0 But who the gently caress knows in today’s political climate? HRC is also no LBJ.
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Mar 16, 2016 19:24
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Necc0 posted:Yeah it's also worth keeping in mind that Trump doesn't even need to pass the 50% mark to avoid a brokered convention. If he's within a few percentage points they'll just give it to him anyways to avoid the party from imploding. If it were anyone but Trump maybe, but the party leaders HATE him. At this point even more than they hate Ted "gently caress That Canadian gently caress" Cruz. If Trump doesn't have the full number of delegates needed they'll try and ratfuck him. Especially since Cruz and Kasich will be demanding a fight. A brokered convention is still unlikely, but that's because with the winner take all states Trump will likely get the 59% or so of the remaining delegates he needs. If nothing else than off momentum.
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Mar 16, 2016 19:46
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There are some people on the right calling for a Garland vote, such luminaries as Ken Starr, but it might be enough to be able to flip the market for any confirmation on a SCOTUS nominee, which is currently at .40. I bought in at .32 this morning.
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Mar 16, 2016 19:49
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Not much going on right now, but I'd like to change that. I only have three or four long positions active right now. My portfolio has largely been low risk, no coinflips or lotto tickets. What positions are y'all building up for next Tuesday?
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Mar 16, 2016 20:19
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So about that AK poll... Does anyone know if the AK Democratic party has new registration numbers up somewhere?
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Mar 16, 2016 20:36
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I've got nothing for next Tuesday but have bought the cheap shares of Bernie NO in the states after that. I'm hoping Hillary's lead and momentum will raise her prices enough to make some good flips. Also I'm not touching the Brokered market. There is a lot of time left and I think everyone is going to be doing everything they can to derail the Trump train before then. Who knows what crazy things will happen. However if I had to I would buy Brokered NO.
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Mar 16, 2016 20:42
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C7ty1 posted:So about that AK poll... Found the numbers for my own question: http://www.elections.alaska.gov/statistics/2016/JAN/vi_vrs_stats_party_2016.01.03.htm This is from 1/3/16. Namely, at the bottom, it states 70249 Democrats. http://www.elections.alaska.gov/statistics/2016/MAR/vi_vrs_stats_party_2016.03.04.htm This is from 3/4/16. 70187 Democrats. If the poll holds, it looks like there hasn't been a huge rush to register for Democrats in AK. Good news for Clinton?
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Mar 16, 2016 20:58
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nachos posted:I feel like the RNC is really downplaying how devastating a convention fight is going to be. I wonder if they will come to their senses eventually. Yeah but they think Trump heading the party will be even more devastating. It'd be a massacre electorally. The GOPe thinks they can steal the nom from Trump and the Trump faction will fall in line and vote for Romney or whoever the gently caress. It's wishful thinking but hey it's worked every election so far.
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Mar 16, 2016 21:00
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Also... quote:PredictItAdmin Mod • 9 minutes ago MO.DEM, Sanders is up to past .10....!!!
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Mar 16, 2016 21:02
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C7ty1 posted:Also...
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Mar 16, 2016 21:05
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Peachstapler posted:Is there a MO state authority posting hard numbers and what else must be counted? Yes: 100%. However, there are apparently some absentee and overseas ballots outstanding. So the question was - with full reporting, but with absentee ballots in such a close vote, did PredictIt stick to the letter or spirit of the rules, I guess?
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Mar 16, 2016 21:08
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I'm more concerned with Bernie.NO down to 80 cents and I have about $4200 in liquid to dump here if I can take advantage of the facts, unfortunately it's impossible to gauge how people voted on absentee returns (or if it'll be enough to change things).
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Mar 16, 2016 21:15
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