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uncurable mlady posted:Infinite Hitlers on Infinite Earths Imagine four hitlers at the top of a cliff, and a perfect copy of hitler appears and pushed the last one off...
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Mar 18, 2016 23:15
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this civil war will never not be entertaining
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Mar 18, 2016 23:17
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zoux posted:Anyone predicting that Trump would do what he's done was guessing, and they were making a very bad guess. Patter Song posted:So...according to Nate Silver, the guy who is leading the GOP primary in national polls by double digits, has leads in early states and later states in polls, has infinite money to draw on, and is running against a field of drooling inbreds has a 2% chance at his nomination. Patter Song posted:I'm well aware of the other factors Nate Silver uses, I've been reading his site regularly since March of 2008. Nate Silver is arrogant and overconfident these days and his record seriously isn't as good as people say it is (he completely miscalled Congress in 2010, has a terrible record on governor races, and does amazingly poorly at any international election he writes about). He is resting on his laurels from the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, both of which there were plenty of other commentators who did just as well as he did at predicting election returns (with 2012 you could literally copy out the polling average for 49 states and flip a coin for Florida and have a 50% chance of tying Nate Silver). August 23rd, 2015. Please don't start this "No one could've predicted Trump!" nonsense, plenty of us did.
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Mar 18, 2016 23:19
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uncurable mlady posted:Infinite Hitlers on Infinite Earths Infinite Constitutional Crisis
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Mar 18, 2016 23:21
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Patter Song posted:August 23rd, 2015. Get ready to hear it a lot. Many of the political pundits are embarrassed and this is their way of saving face.
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Mar 18, 2016 23:22
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Trump realizes the media is out of material and specifically scheduled this rally to do SOMETHING to own the cycle that'll blow over by Monday. He simply can't help himself. Last week we got a riot, what's the twist tonight?
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Mar 18, 2016 23:25
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Full Battle Rattle posted:Get ready to hear it a lot. Many of the political pundits are embarrassed and this is their way of saving face. He might not be a full hitler yet but he's now passed an important gate for being an Iraq War
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Mar 18, 2016 23:25
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New Kasich ad airing in Utah features man who told everyone today they should not vote for Kasich. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2DCWsYc7tc
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Mar 18, 2016 23:25
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Intel&Sebastian posted:He might not be a full hitler yet but he's now passed an important gate for being an Iraq War ....what?
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Mar 18, 2016 23:26
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Patter Song posted:August 23rd, 2015. Yeah I'm pretty sure most of us here were taking Trump pretty seriously after he survived his scrutiny phase which was undeniable right around August
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Mar 18, 2016 23:27
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Necc0 posted:Yeah I'm pretty sure most of us here were taking Trump pretty seriously after he survived his scrutiny phase which was undeniable right around August At "Only Rosie O'Donnell" I think it was clear we were in for something new. That raucous crowd was a huge, huge boon. Imagine a silent audience for that line.
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Mar 18, 2016 23:29
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Full Battle Rattle posted:....what? "Nobody could possibly have predicted that the war in Iraq was going to be a huge clusterfuck and in the end they didn't even have WMDs just like all the WMD inspectors said"
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Mar 18, 2016 23:30
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Oiled and Ready posted:Trump realizes the media is out of material and specifically scheduled this rally to do SOMETHING to own the cycle that'll blow over by Monday. He simply can't help himself. ben carson v chris christie deathmatch to determine the ultimate subservient lackey.
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Mar 18, 2016 23:30
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Oiled and Ready posted:At "Only Rosie O'Donnell" I think it was clear we were in for something new. That raucous crowd was a huge, huge boon. Imagine a silent audience for that line. see thats what will be interesting in the general debates. I doubt he is going to get the same crowd reactions and presidential debates are big poo poo. he will get called on poo poo and might not be able to dodge.
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Mar 18, 2016 23:32
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Regardless of how many people predicted Trump last summer, I really am hesitant to mock the various pundits who were skeptical of his rise. I mean, none of this loving election has made any sense if you go by past data. Sure, some of them probably should've been less skeptical, say, around December or January, but I can understand why they weren't.
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Mar 18, 2016 23:34
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Nichael posted:Regardless of how many people predicted Trump last summer, I really am hesitant to mock the various pundits who were skeptical of his rise. I mean, none of this loving election has made any sense if you go by past data. Sure, some of them probably should've been less skeptical, say, around December or January, but I can understand why they weren't. They couldn't accept how much fun this would be, even more so than normal. It didn't compute.
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Mar 18, 2016 23:35
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Dapper_Swindler posted:see thats what will be interesting in the general debates. I doubt he is going to get the same crowd reactions and presidential debates are big poo poo. he will get called on poo poo and might not be able to dodge. There's only three presidential debates, typically, right? Wouldn't it be beneficial to Clinton for her to challenge Trump to more than three? Humiliate him multiple times or have him refuse.
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Mar 18, 2016 23:36
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paranoid randroid posted:trump is turkmenbashi but lol thats way too deep a dictator cut for it to mean anything to most americans, so mussolini it is i guess gently caress it, have the best summary of Turkmenistan's insanity here: http://www.badassoftheweek.com/niyazov.html
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Mar 18, 2016 23:39
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Nichael posted:Regardless of how many people predicted Trump last summer, I really am hesitant to mock the various pundits who were skeptical of his rise. I mean, none of this loving election has made any sense if you go by past data. Sure, some of them probably should've been less skeptical, say, around December or January, but I can understand why they weren't. us presidential elections haven't made any sense to political scientists since 2008, I knew trump would happen because it was the option that favored chaos the most
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Mar 18, 2016 23:41
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Been reading my old posts. This one is me in October responding to someone saying that Kasich should be demoted to the kiddie table.Patter Song posted:I agree. Kasich is running pretty much to either be the Vice President of an Establishment pick (popular governor of Ohio) or to be the Establishment's Plan C if Jeb keeps on Jebbing and we suddenly discover that Marco Rubio attends cocaine-fueled orgies in Miami. The other three don't even have a path that viable. I admit that the thought that Kasich was running to be Trump's running mate like he apparently is had not occurred to me yet.
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Mar 18, 2016 23:42
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Dapper_Swindler posted:see thats what will be interesting in the general debates. I doubt he is going to get the same crowd reactions and presidential debates are big poo poo. he will get called on poo poo and might not be able to dodge. The biggest mystery still unsolved to me is whether Trump can still channel even a fraction of this personality and poise: https://youtu.be/Rksd80-FCAw?t=258 If he can, he's got a real shot to win debates. No sign of life yet though.
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Mar 18, 2016 23:45
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GOP Leaders Assure Sobbing Rubio It Not His Fault Party Splitting Up quote:WASHINGTON—In an effort to comfort the distraught former presidential candidate, top GOP leaders reportedly sat down next to a sobbing Marco Rubio Thursday and assured him that it wasn’t his fault the Republican Party was splitting up. “Marco, trust me, this isn’t about you—we’ve been having problems for years,” said RNC chairman Reince Priebus, who consoled the weeping Florida senator by repeatedly telling him that the party’s breakup had nothing to do with anything he had said or done. “The fact is, we tried our best to work through our issues, but we just fought all the time. There’s nothing you or any of the other establishment candidates could have done about it. Okay, buddy?” At press time, Rubio had started blubbering even louder when Priebus admitted the party would probably never reconcile. http://www.theonion.com/article/gop-leaders-assure-sobbing-rubio-it-not-his-fault--52582
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Mar 18, 2016 23:49
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Oiled and Ready posted:Are they entirely sure they want to explain to Trump supporters that Hitler claimed he was just a victim of bad deals and the disgusting press, because that is how you get something far worse than neo-nazis (who can be seen and ostracized easily). Al! posted:"Nobody could possibly have predicted that the war in Iraq was going to be a huge clusterfuck and in the end they didn't even have WMDs just like all the WMD inspectors said" 
Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 23:52 on Mar 18, 2016 |
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Mar 18, 2016 23:50
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Kasich can't win 1237 to be sure, but neither can Cruz. Why isn't the establishment going all in on Kasich at this point? They hate Cruz almost as much as Trump. It wouldn't make any sense to select Cruz at a contested convention. Kasich is easily their best bet for the general too.
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Mar 18, 2016 23:51
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"Anthony Senecal, he believes young Barron is more like Donald than any of his grown children. Inside Edition reports that Senecal recalled a time he was serving the tot his breakfast. “When Barron was two-and-a-half years old I took his breakfast into him,” Senecal said. “He was sitting in his highchair and he looks at me and he said: ‘Tony! Sit down! We need to talk!’ “" Ahahahaha
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Mar 18, 2016 23:52
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I spent the better part of last year predicting Cruz would win or burn the whole party to the ground trying. Who would have thought Trump would burn it down preemptively and become lord over the ashes?
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Mar 18, 2016 23:52
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fade5 posted:I have just spent the last half hour reading about Turkmenistan and lol holy poo poo this is amazing and accurate i mean it truly is trump's spirit animal. actually, one better than trump because turkmenbashi literally was a self-made man from a soviet orphanage, not a rich kid with dad's business contacts. you're kidding yourself if you don't think trump wants the trump monument to be a statue of the art of the deal that opens up and plays a reading about how he totally closed this badass fuckin deal and made the other side look like chumps.
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Mar 18, 2016 23:53
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Shakugan posted:Kasich can't win 1237 to be sure, but neither can Cruz. Why isn't the establishment going all in on Kasich at this point? They hate Cruz almost as much as Trump. It wouldn't make any sense to select Cruz at a contested convention. Kasich is easily their best bet for the general too. Because they're still beholden to Trumps insane supporters and Cruz has shown promise in peeling some of them off of the golden calf.
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Mar 18, 2016 23:56
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Shakugan posted:Kasich can't win 1237 to be sure, but neither can Cruz. Why isn't the establishment going all in on Kasich at this point? They hate Cruz almost as much as Trump. It wouldn't make any sense to select Cruz at a contested convention. Kasich is easily their best bet for the general too. here's an argument for self-interest from a gop congressional incumbent/candidate's point of view, which by extension represents the self-interest of the people who are interested in having as many gop members in congress as possible: -if you pick cruz at the convention you piss off the trump voters and the establishment voters -if you pick kasich you piss off the trump voters and the cruz voters -trump+cruz voting base > trump+establishment voting base fewer pissed off voters leads to less depressed turnout for down-ticket races, which leads to fewer incumbents losing their seats and more candidates winning their elections. you pick cruz, you piss off the least voters* *i guess the logical extension would be evaluating the chances of trump winning a contested convention by figuring out where cruz+establishment voting base fits in the hierarchy. i'm not really sure. if it's the smallest number then you've got an argument for picking trump! gop politicians may hate cruz a lot, but they tend to hate the idea of losing their seats/elections even more, so i think they take the option that pisses off the smallest fraction of their voting base, even if they personally happen to be members of that group (the people who hate trump and cruz) we'll see how poo poo plays out, and the degree to which logic and reason will play into this decision is debatable for sure, but i think that's a reason to pick cruz at a contested convention that has some logic behind it oystertoadfish fucked around with this message at 00:03 on Mar 19, 2016 |
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Mar 18, 2016 23:57
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am i to understand theres a dude out there name of Barron Trump
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Mar 18, 2016 23:59
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paranoid randroid posted:am i to understand theres a dude out there name of Barron Trump He's a 9 year old boy, who's like 5 foot tall.
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Mar 19, 2016 00:01
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oystertoadfish posted:here's an argument for self-interest from a gop congressional incumbent/candidate's point of view, which by extension represents the self-interest of the people who are interested in having as many gop members in congress as possible: I agree with this but also, ratfucking Trump in favor of Cruz who will probably have like 70-80% as many delegates as Trump will have much better optics than giving it to Kasich who will have like 25-30% of the delegates. Giving it to Cruz just might be able to avoid the catastrophic GOP fracture scenario that would likely happen if the nomination were given to Trump or Kasich/Romney/Ryan.
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Mar 19, 2016 00:06
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paranoid randroid posted:am i to understand theres a dude out there name of Barron Trump Donald Trump has a 40 year old son and a 10 year old son.
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Mar 19, 2016 00:06
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Intel&Sebastian posted:Because they're still beholden to Trumps insane supporters and Cruz has shown promise in peeling some of them off of the golden calf. Holy poo poo Ted Cruz's team sucks If he hammered that golden calf allegory daily on Trump he'd have more Evangelicals, no question
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Mar 19, 2016 00:07
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Honestly, if we're going to compare predicting Trump to predicting the Iraq War, I'd say it's as if after Saddam fell they discovered a massive, sophisticated ICBM operation just underneath Baghdad, and the inspectors and international community were stuck trying to explain the Bush administration hadn't actually had any evidence beyond their gut feelings or wildest dreams. There were plenty of early indicators that something new was going on, like that debate deflection about Rosie O'Donnell or getting away with bashing McCain, and as those piled up believing in the power of Trump became more plausible. Even then, Trump relied on a perfect storm of incompetence from his opponents, who ignored him for far too long and focused on each other then hung around too long preventing strong opposition from forming - he's had a lot of lucky breaks with the media and with the political establishment. I sympathize with Nate Silver and the statisticians for all the poo poo they're going to have to eat on this one, weathermen are always up front about how shaky their forecasts can be but people get mad with them anyway when it unexpectedly rains.
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Mar 19, 2016 00:07
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Shakugan posted:Kasich can't win 1237 to be sure, but neither can Cruz. Why isn't the establishment going all in on Kasich at this point? They hate Cruz almost as much as Trump. It wouldn't make any sense to select Cruz at a contested convention. Kasich is easily their best bet for the general too. Because unlike what some people think, it's only going to get stolen from trump if he fails to make 1237 AND there's someone within spitting distance in 2nd. So yes, it would make a lot of sense to see cruz as the only alternative since giving it to someone who only won their home state would unquestionably destroy the party. It's no different than stealing an election really. Perceived legitimacy of the action is a function of how close the results were expected to be. If it was supposed to be close stealing raises some eyebrows but if it was supposed to be a blowout you'll see riots in the streets. Yes, the establishment hates trump, but this idea that they'll take it from him if he has 1236 and no one else close is nonsense- the establishment themselves are not unified enough to pull it off even if they wanted to. Their best hope is to let trump pull a goldwater and pick up the pieces. Trying to steal it at that point would make the '68 chicago event look like a picnic, the party would completely fracture.
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Mar 19, 2016 00:10
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MaxxBot posted:I agree with this but also, ratfucking Trump in favor of Cruz who will probably have like 70-80% as many delegates as Trump will have much better optics than giving it to Kasich who will have like 25-30% of the delegates. Giving it to Cruz just might be able to avoid the catastrophic GOP fracture scenario that would likely happen if the nomination were given to Trump or Kasich/Romney/Ryan. ding ding ding we have a winner
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Mar 19, 2016 00:10
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paranoid randroid posted:am i to understand theres a dude out there name of Barron Trump
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Mar 19, 2016 00:13
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Oiled and Ready posted:Holy poo poo Ted Cruz's team sucks He could even run the GC scene from Charlton Heston's Ten Commandments as an attack ad and be showing 90 percent of his audience their own mental image of the story. Real talk though, American Christians are terrible and this election is proof that they're more interested in what David Duke and Paul Ryan say than the bible or Jesus.
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Mar 19, 2016 00:15
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the problem with lauding trump in 2015 on the basis of his early rise to the top is that giuliani had a similar persistent lead in 2007, and so on. the model that declares him inevitable this election fails in other elections, just like the models that worked for other elections failed for this one. of course this doesn't exonerate a lot of pundits who confidently declared his chances to be zero or minimal even as iowa approached. they have the same problem of there just not being enough data i still wonder if the race wouldn't be in a very different place if rubio hadn't choked at the debate
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Mar 19, 2016 00:18
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