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whatever7 posted:Berniebros pushed the Bernie DNOM Yes from 10 cents to 16 cents, will it go higher after the next round of states? If they got money to waste it's worth trying to catch a low since he has a good chance on doing well next week, they'll probably push it to 30 by the end of the weekend Or you could wait for Hillary nom to go low and get on that, unless you're worried she won't get it.
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Mar 19, 2016 01:21
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L-Boned posted:You do know there has been a ton of early voting and, by all accounts, it heavily favors Trump. Are there numbers on the early voting? Unless a bunch of people wasted votes on Rubio I'm not sure how it specifically favors Trump, who hasn't enjoyed the support in polling in Arizona as he has in most of the States he won with a solid margin.
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Mar 19, 2016 02:01
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I bought a bunch of Bernie Nom.No for cheap, since I'm expecting him to win solid all next week. Then I'll sell because he'll lose NY and CA.
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Mar 19, 2016 02:53
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Stereotype posted:I bought a bunch of Bernie Nom.No for cheap, since I'm expecting him to win solid all next week.
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Mar 19, 2016 03:37
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There are only three primaries in the next thirty days. Poop.
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Mar 19, 2016 03:41
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Aliquid posted:There are only three primaries in the next thirty days. Poop. Three Republican primaries. There are eight Democratic primaries.
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Mar 19, 2016 03:43
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I have 80% of my portfolio in Hillary MO and yet sometimes I still forget the democratic primary is ongoing
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Mar 19, 2016 04:00
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Vox Nihili posted:Are there numbers on the early voting? Unless a bunch of people wasted votes on Rubio I'm not sure how it specifically favors Trump, who hasn't enjoyed the support in polling in Arizona as he has in most of the States he won with a solid margin.  The scale on this graph is hilariously misleading but the numbers are accurate. The early vote numbers are from Wednesday - meaning almost all of them were cast when Rubio was still in the race (and the most recent poll had Rubio at 16%). Statewide, early voting through 3/16 was over half of the total vote in the 2012 primary, while Maricopa county turnout was already at 75% of 2012 levels. Aside from being the largest county, Maricopa is also notable because Trump endorser Sheriff Joe Arpaio runs a strong political operation there.
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Mar 19, 2016 11:18
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Vox Nihili posted:Are there numbers on the early voting? Unless a bunch of people wasted votes on Rubio I'm not sure how it specifically favors Trump, who hasn't enjoyed the support in polling in Arizona as he has in most of the States he won with a solid margin. Winning every poll since january by double digits is not good polling support, lmbo you are being dumb about this. e/ compare with illinois polls, which were fairly close leading up, yet he won there without issue. Why illinois? Because where the gently caress do you think conservatives in az came from? TROIKA CURES GREEK has issued a correction as of 17:45 on Mar 19, 2016 |
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Mar 19, 2016 17:32
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I don't think anyone is saying Trump will lose AZ - but essentially 90 - 10? No way. Especially not with 30% undecided. I can't see Cruz dropping much further, but a new poll could help boost Cruz in the market. (And then always the madness of actual primary day.)
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Mar 19, 2016 17:48
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The Betfair Rep.Nom market has officially gone insane: 7% chance of "none of the above" is beyond free money and into "we give up, just take our cash" territory
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Mar 19, 2016 19:02
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Adar posted:The Betfair Rep.Nom market has officially gone insane: Holy moly and that's including the insane options like Romney/Ryan
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Mar 19, 2016 19:13
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Adar posted:The Betfair Rep.Nom market has officially gone insane: Boy, won’t you have egg on your face when I’m the nominee. It’s more likely than Bloomberg e: The way I see it, Cruz is less likely than Kasich. Cruz can’t beat Trump outright, and if the establishment screws Trump out of the nomination, they might as well go all the way. I know that various GOPe figures have been talking up Cruz, but they’re only doing that because they would very much like Trump to get less than 50% of the vote and the only way that happens is if Cruz does well. When it comes down to it, party leadership would rather take their chances with Trump than with Cruz. Platystemon has issued a correction as of 19:28 on Mar 19, 2016 |
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Mar 19, 2016 19:24
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:Winning every poll since january by double digits is not good polling support, lmbo you are being dumb about this. Trump has consistently underperformed his polls by anywhere from 5% to 20%. Late deciders have generally gone against him by some absurd ratio. This isn't news for most people.
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Mar 19, 2016 19:28
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Arizona also has a closed primary. But I think the early voting numbers mean Trump takes it anyway: http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-B42E1095B9450178
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Mar 19, 2016 19:34
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Platystemon posted:Boy, won’t you have egg on your face when I’m the nominee. If they go brokered their best bet is giving it to Cruz. They're probably going to get get crushed either way at that point, so might as well throw in a guy who isn't going to ignite the general populace's desire to vote against them and thus have a chance at saving the down ballot. Also, whoever steals the nomination from Trump is going to be hated for losing the election after stealing it. If they pin that poo poo on an establishment guy there's no way in hell they get on nominated next time. However if they pin it on Cruz, well then Trump gets stumped and Cruz is destroyed nationally. Overthrowing Trump and installing Cruz lets them gently caress both those guys.
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Mar 19, 2016 19:45
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Isn't Cruz anti-gay and anti-abortion enough to incite some downticket rage?
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Mar 19, 2016 19:52
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a cop posted:Isn't Cruz anti-gay and anti-abortion enough to incite some downticket rage? He's a conservative horror show, but he's smart enough to phrase his hate without the bombastic attention grabbing style of Trump. Ted Cruz will happily gently caress over a larger portion of the populace that Trump, but Trump is far more noticeable about his attempt. Donald Trump is the type of serial killer writing into the media and taunting the police. Ted Cruz is the serial killer who keeps his head down and wracks up dozens of kills before the police even know he exists. Ted got all that attention grabbing poo poo out of his system back in California.
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Mar 19, 2016 20:04
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Daniel Schwaner • 26 minutes ago if we all can't agree that the UNKNOWN number of outstanding provisional military and absentee ballots are going to be the end all be all of this market than you are delusional. and lets reiterate hillary has a 1500 vote lead.. 1500 out of 600K+.. thats like saying there are 400 apples.. 600,000 divided by 1500  . she has 1 extra apple... if there aren't a few apples left than shoot meDaniel Schwaner Daniel Schwaner • 22 minutes ago oh and full disclosure, I'm holding my bernie shares until this settles
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Mar 19, 2016 20:30
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Aliquid posted:Daniel Schwaner • 26 minutes ago It's not only easy to take these peoples' money, it is moral & imperative.
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Mar 19, 2016 20:33
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Hooooly poo poo, Clinton trading at 12% to win Washington. I don't know what news people are overreacting to, but demographics alone make that district a slam-dunk for her. I've loaded up on Yes shares.
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Mar 19, 2016 20:34
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Narciss posted:Hooooly poo poo, Clinton trading at 12% to win Washington. I don't know what news people are overreacting to, but demographics alone make that district a slam-dunk for her. I've loaded up on Yes shares. lol
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Mar 19, 2016 20:35
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Narciss posted:Hooooly poo poo, Clinton trading at 12% to win Washington. I don't know what news people are overreacting to, but demographics alone make that district a slam-dunk for her. I've loaded up on Yes shares. lmao I do have some Bernie NOs but it's because they're stupid-cheap and the market will narrow on election day. Otherwise, no.
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Mar 19, 2016 20:47
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Narciss posted:Hooooly poo poo, Clinton trading at 12% to win Washington. I don't know what news people are overreacting to, but demographics alone make that district a slam-dunk for her. I've loaded up on Yes shares. the calls... THEYRE COMING FROM INSIDE THE HOUSE
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Mar 19, 2016 21:18
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:the calls... THEYRE COMING FROM INSIDE THE HOUSE I'm not sure about that one, but I'm all-in for Bernie to win the District of Oregon.
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Mar 19, 2016 21:20
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C7ty1 posted:I don't think anyone is saying Trump will lose AZ - but essentially 90 - 10? No way. Especially not with 30% undecided. I can't see Cruz dropping much further, but a new poll could help boost Cruz in the market. (And then always the madness of actual primary day.)
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Mar 19, 2016 22:10
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GWBBQ posted:Someone said it a few days ago, if not only SuperPACs but the Cruz campaign are dumping money into winner-take-all AZ, 90/10 is overvalued for Trump. Ehh. I rethought my position a bit. With early voting and the protests? I don't know. I agree that this shouldn't be 90-10, not at all. But I wouldn't be surprised if we see it drop a few cents further on day of. Early returns that night seem like they would favor Trump, with early votes. If you're gonna jump in, I might suggest buying then and maybe waiting out a potential (keyword!) swing. Do we know what counties Cruz might do best in?
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Mar 19, 2016 22:28
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Is Arizona open or closed primary? If it's open, it would be interesting to see if a lot of anti-Trump crossover votes end up hurting Bernie's chances there, as those kind of wild-swing independents are more his demo than Hill-dawg's.
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Mar 19, 2016 22:53
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It's closed. Also early votes are included in the count immediately upon polls closing. So this Cruz spike may not happen unless we get an AZ poll tomorrow or Monday.
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Mar 19, 2016 23:11
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Peachstapler posted:Also early votes are included in the count immediately upon polls closing. This is why I'm not in the market. It could very well stay at 90/10 and after polls close immediately shoot to 98/2 and just stay there.
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Mar 20, 2016 01:24
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Peachstapler posted:Also early votes are included in the count immediately upon polls closing.
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Mar 20, 2016 01:58
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I'm out on all this bs until voting day. I don't know enough about any of these markets cause I'm from the Midwest and south so lol just gonna flip if I can. I took a hit on some shares but I'm still up enough to make me happy. Also lmao at MO. Hil won go away sanders
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Mar 20, 2016 03:29
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Right now Sanders YES in AZ (.09) is cheaper than Sanders YES in MO (.10) This makes sense
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Mar 20, 2016 05:14
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Missouri is the gift that keeps on giving. I can't really tell if they're mostly true believers, or fools playing one hell of a game of chicken.
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Mar 20, 2016 05:57
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They can be both. Either way, they piss me off.
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Mar 20, 2016 06:18
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I feel like I haven't had any good place to put my money since Super Tuesday, my unallocated funds keep growing 
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Mar 20, 2016 07:00
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Why hasn't the Trump debate in Utah market closed yet? Not only has he said he's not going the whole thing got canceled because he and Kasich weren't showing up.
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Mar 20, 2016 15:43
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Gyges posted:Why hasn't the Trump debate in Utah market closed yet? Not only has he said he's not going the whole thing got canceled because he and Kasich weren't showing up. Rules posted:Donald Trump shall participate in an RNC-sanctioned presidential debate in Salt Lake City, Utah, on March 21, 2016. Should no portion of any such debate be held on that date, this Market will resolve as no. I guess it's technically possible they could suddenly reschedule it lol
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Mar 20, 2016 16:03
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GfI8HMzqc7ChwTycD7zbVWWoG95AodIrtALjSzV6HW0/edit#gid=837971065 Included Dem AZ and WA that are upcoming. This sheet is starting to get super sluggish due to how many sheets I'm updating with graphs and poo poo, lol.
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Mar 20, 2016 17:17
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Why is Sanders so high in Utah? is that based on anything?
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Mar 20, 2016 17:26
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