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Broken Machine posted:I would add that elections are also much more fluid, dynamic these days. If a candidate says or does something, it is being fact-checked and reposted, dissected in real time. Social media makes it much more possible for people to spread a message and influence elections today, particularly people who would be otherwise without power to shape things. It's much harder to run misinformation campaigns without being penalized. There's not much evidence of this in general elections, but I imagine it's a big factor in the primaries. I don't know how much weight 538 gives to more recent polls, but probably not enough. He gives Clinton an 88% chance to win Illinois even though the last three polls are a statistical tie.
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Mar 15, 2016 19:10
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Xandu posted:There's not much evidence of this in general elections, but I imagine it's a big factor in the primaries. I don't know how much weight 538 gives to more recent polls, but probably not enough. He gives Clinton an 88% chance to win Illinois even though the last three polls are a statistical tie. please stop bernie-broing at us xandu hillary is inevitable and nate's polls correctly indicate that
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Mar 15, 2016 19:58
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Broken Machine posted:It's much harder to run misinformation campaigns without being penalized.
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Mar 15, 2016 21:19
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e_angst posted:A good buddy of mine used to be an accountant. I remember years ago when he was asking about getting to borrow to a faster computer, because he was trying to do with with an excel spreadsheet. This was back in 2007, and his requirements were that it have Excel 07 on it, since that was the version where Excel boosted the row limit past 65,000. See, this spreadsheet had several hundred thousand rows in it. He also said the spreadsheet had "over a million large formulas" in it as well (this is why he needed the larger computer, his laptop couldn't actually open the thing anymore). Microsoft has since added functionality to Excel that lets you offload processing to an actual loving supercomputer.
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Mar 15, 2016 22:04
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lmao 
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Mar 16, 2016 17:13
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"How can I massage the data to support my predetermined outcome?" - Nate Silver and pretty much every other person who has ever used Stats to make a buck. Dude might have a lucrative future in doing subgroup post hoc analysis for drug trials.
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Mar 19, 2016 19:00
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bawfuls posted:On the other hand Trump makes things up all the time without penalty. Trump is an extraplanar being that doesn't have to follow the prime material's rules.
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Mar 19, 2016 19:09
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Tayter Swift posted:i still think Paris and San Bernardino has completely hosed this election cycle and we wouldn't be discussing trump right now if it weren't for that, or at least he wouldn't have been able to get away with the whole fascism deal which is weird because I would have thought most republicans would err on the side of caution and dump Trump for an establishment neocon.
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Mar 20, 2016 03:53
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http://www.theonion.com/article/nate-silver-defends-torture-methods-used-make-elec-52597
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Mar 21, 2016 17:34
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All polls are bogus and Nate Silver is a bullshit artist. Surprised he's been able to fake it so long.
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Mar 21, 2016 17:40
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He'll probably do better in the general. Then again, as long as Trump gets the nom, this won't be a hard general to forecast.
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Mar 22, 2016 10:09
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The Trump has a BRILLIANT political strategy and Encyclopedia Nate is ON IT Edit: Although to be fair it seems like 99% of journalism is just explaining unbearably obvious poo poo to your imagined audience of idiot coach potatoes.
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Mar 22, 2016 19:55
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Jewel Repetition posted:He'll probably do better in the general. Then again, as long as Trump gets the nom, this won't be a hard general to forecast. I am 95% certain that the Democrats will win the general. As it has been since April 2015, the presidency is Hillary's to lose.
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Mar 22, 2016 20:14
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Combed Thunderclap posted:The Trump has a BRILLIANT political strategy and Encyclopedia Nate is ON IT Nate Silver has become the John Madden of politics, right down to his stupid loving infographics If they want to score, they've got to run with the ball or kick it. They've got to run with the ball, or they've got to kick it. Boom.
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Mar 22, 2016 20:16
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It's the Democrats running a lovely candidate, as much as I prefer Clin-ton to becoming overlord over Trump there's like a 20-30% chance an october recession or ISIS hitting US puts Trump in office
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Mar 22, 2016 20:17
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Mirthless posted:Nate Silver has become the John Madden of politics, right down to his stupid loving infographics Actually John Madden has a lot of football history and understanding of the game. Please don't disparage Mr. Madden that way.
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Mar 22, 2016 20:21
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Typo posted:It's the Democrats running a lovely candidate, as much as I prefer Clin-ton to becoming overlord over Trump there's like a 20-30% chance an october recession or ISIS hitting US puts Trump in office There's always the potential for a September surprise but 20% seems high. After the first debate we'll know for sure how this poo poo shakes. Based on the Clinton/Sanders debates I'm a lot less worried about Clinton's ability to roll with punches. Anyone who knows anything about Trump's history knows he's more intelligent than the character he's playing in the Republican circus, and I expect him to come out swinging at much higher than a 4th grade level when it's a general audience he's playing to. Hopefully we won't see a repeat of the first Obama/Romney debate, which is my main concern. There are other things that will influence the outcome too. If Republicans get their brokered convention, their nominee might not get the post-convention bump, even if they stick with Trump due to his popularity. The Whole Internet has issued a correction as of 00:31 on Mar 23, 2016 |
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Mar 23, 2016 00:26
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Nate Silver reminds me of the Hollywood algorithm guy who scammed the Hollywood studios, but ultimately bought his own hype and tried to make movies. http://www.vulture.com/2016/01/relativity-media-ryan-kavanaugh-c-v-r.html
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Mar 23, 2016 00:48
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The Whole Internet posted:There's always the potential for a September surprise but 20% seems high. Betting markets have a 30% chance of a GOP victory last time I checked.
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Mar 23, 2016 01:55
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oh
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Mar 23, 2016 19:20
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Why is Kasich not listed as a conservative christian? He's deeply religious, wants to ban abortion. What?
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Mar 23, 2016 19:25
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The Whole Internet posted:Why is Kasich not listed as a conservative christian? He's deeply religious, wants to ban abortion. What? It's about presentation, not policies. Kasich differentiates himself by campaigning as a moderate politician who is willing to compromise to get government working. Cruz plays on his Christianity and his belief in uncompromising conservatism. Trump's schtick is that he doesn't care about any of these factions and is going to expel the money changers from the temple the moment he gets the nomination. And, compared to his competitors, Kasich is somehow a moderate. Several contenders advocated invoking the 14th Amendment to stop all abortion, courts be damned. QuoProQuid has issued a correction as of 19:39 on Mar 23, 2016 |
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Mar 23, 2016 19:34
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Christie's jump would make Evel Knievel jealous.
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Mar 24, 2016 00:11
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That remains the dumbest venn diagram I have ever seen
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Mar 24, 2016 00:13
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For added comedy, go to Twitter where this bullshit was posted to see people burbling over its brilliance and asking for the same thing, but for Democrats! But seriously, this is the data visualization of the future?  just kill me
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Mar 24, 2016 05:04
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Poor lonely Rand Paul. A whole bubble to himself.
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Mar 24, 2016 05:08
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Combed Thunderclap posted:For added comedy, go to Twitter where this bullshit was posted to see people burbling over its brilliance and asking for the same thing, but for Democrats! Nate Silver and the parasites clinging from his pasty rear end are all huge retards.
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Mar 24, 2016 05:12
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I like that graph even if has obvious problems with the limits of what it can represent.
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Mar 24, 2016 05:14
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Jewel Repetition posted:I like that graph even if has obvious problems with the limits of what it can represent. They made a retarded completely arbitrary graph and then put one of their made up data points outside of it. They're morons and the graph is dumb.
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Mar 24, 2016 05:16
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Bernice Anders posted:They made a retarded completely arbitrary graph and then put one of their made up data points outside of it. They're morons and the graph is dumb. It's hard to say it's completely arbitrary, since the categories really are flavors/coalition members of the Republican party, and the candidates do reside in them. Are you talking about how the endorsement jumps wouldn't look as long if the circles were in different places?
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Mar 24, 2016 05:19
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538 doesn't separate its "real" stats from its completely made up stats and that's a Problem
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Mar 24, 2016 05:20
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Jewel Repetition posted:It's hard to say it's completely arbitrary, since the categories really are flavors/coalition members of the Republican party, and the candidates do reside in them. Are you talking about how the endorsement jumps wouldn't look as long if the circles were in different places? They took statements like "it's surprising that a moderate like Christie would endorse a tea partier like trump" and tried to make them look like math
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Mar 24, 2016 05:22
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"Ritchie King is a visual journalist for FiveThirtyEight." lomarf
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Mar 24, 2016 05:23
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Combed Thunderclap posted:For added comedy, go to Twitter where this bullshit was posted to see people burbling over its brilliance and asking for the same thing, but for Democrats! Here ya go. 
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Mar 24, 2016 05:55
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It's surprising when you look at them politically, but not when you look at them personally, since they're both corrupt bullies from adjacent states.
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Mar 24, 2016 06:16
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I had no idea UPS was a significant GOP donor, weird
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Mar 24, 2016 06:33
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Powercrazy posted:I am 95% certain that the Democrats will win the general. As it has been since April 2015, the presidency is Hillary's to lose. Romney, an inoffensive robot, lost every single demographic except white men. I can't see Trump, an openly sexist, racist rube, doing any better. In the general election cycle, he's going to be eviscerated for all the dumb poo poo he's said. The demographics of this country have shifted too much for Trump to win anything but the reddest of states. I also can't imagine Trump having a better ground game than Hillary. His success so far has been based largely on outsized media coverage. What's the game plan for actually getting people to the polls during the general election?
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Mar 24, 2016 07:12
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Bernice Anders posted:They made a retarded completely arbitrary graph and then put one of their made up data points outside of it. They're morons and the graph is dumb. trump is an outsider 
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Mar 24, 2016 14:01
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Flavahbeast posted:I had no idea UPS was a significant GOP donor, weird guess who profits immensely from the continued slow strangulation of the USPS
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Mar 24, 2016 14:27
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zeal posted:guess who profits immensely from the continued slow strangulation of the USPS And who would benefit even more if the whole thing was privatized like they talked about a while back
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Mar 24, 2016 15:22
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