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Strobe
Jun 30, 2014
GW BRAINWORMS CREW
It isn't. Same with Calculation.

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Dr. Clockwork
Sep 9, 2011

I'LL PUT MY SCIENCE IN ALL OF YOU!
So I built this list for the hell of it just to try out these ships, and it turns out to be really good and a BLAST to run.

http://xwing-builder.co.uk/view/457492/snowflake-squadron

Played a game against three T-70s and didn't lose a single hull point, then against a TIE swarm that was a bit closer but the list performed very well. I love 4-LOM's ability to shunt stress to an enemy ship, and just rage out every turn.

bunnyofdoom
Mar 29, 2008
THE HATE CRIME DEFENDER HAS LOGGED ON

Dr. Clockwork posted:

So I built this list for the hell of it just to try out these ships, and it turns out to be really good and a BLAST to run.

http://xwing-builder.co.uk/view/457492/snowflake-squadron

Played a game against three T-70s and didn't lose a single hull point, then against a TIE swarm that was a bit closer but the list performed very well. I love 4-LOM's ability to shunt stress to an enemy ship, and just rage out every turn.

I don't see the title, so I dunno why it lists the JM5K as 3 red?

Dr. Clockwork
Sep 9, 2011

I'LL PUT MY SCIENCE IN ALL OF YOU!

bunnyofdoom posted:

I don't see the title, so I dunno why it lists the JM5K as 3 red?

That's weird, it's not Punishing One I didn't have the points.

Edit: It's showing as 2 for me.

Kai Tave
Jul 2, 2012
Fallen Rib

bunnyofdoom posted:

I don't see the title, so I dunno why it lists the JM5K as 3 red?

Are you looking at the pilot skill?

ZenMastaT
Apr 4, 2005

I dun shot my dick off
I finally had the chance to play a couple games with the Wave 8 ships yesterday! Went up against Dengar loaded to the gills with chipped torpedoes and the title and glitterstim and PTL and K4, with a wingman in PS 9 Zuckuss with Mist Hunter title and some other things.

I was flying an Autoblaster Ghost (Kanaan) with Biggs, a build someone posted earlier in the thread that ended up working fairly well. Mostly because my opponent baaaarely clipped an asteroid with Dengar on turn 2, which left him in arc at range 1 of the autoblaster ghost - otherwise he could have easily barrel rolled to safety. I probably should have been throwing the Ghost around more, trying to get into range 1 more often but asteroid placement made it kind of tough to do other than circle around. It was a fun build but I think I want to try a Ghost with a turret with a little more reach next time.

Second game I flew 3x T70s (Ello, Red Ace and a Red Sqn Vet) against Inquisitor, Darth Vader and Soontir Fel. I managed to knock one shield off Vader and one off the Inquisitor but that was it. I still need to learn a thing or two about flying to block because losing the PS race and facing aces who can easily reposition meant I spent most turns with no shot. I did end up setting up one dream situation with two T70s on target, one at range 1, but the range 1 T70 got PS killed before it could fire.

That was my first time flying Ello or Red Ace - Red Ace ended up being my last ship and definitely survived a couple rounds longer than the other T70s because of the whole Comm Relay/R2D2 shenanigans - I wasn't able to get my opponent to shoot at him at all though so having him end up as the last ship didn't really seem all that helpful. Maybe it would work better against swarms or other groups of ships with a PS less than 6?

Sharkopath
May 27, 2009

Has anybody figured out good strats to use with Mist Hunter? I've only flown mine a few times and besides being pretty beefy I haven't figured out a good game plan for it besides throwing people into rocks. Cloak seems useful when you know you're going into a bad situation and you want the extra evasion but I'm still not used to using it.

thespaceinvader
Mar 30, 2011

The slightest touch from a Gol-Shogeg will result in Instant Death!

Sharkopath posted:

Has anybody figured out good strats to use with Mist Hunter? I've only flown mine a few times and besides being pretty beefy I haven't figured out a good game plan for it besides throwing people into rocks. Cloak seems useful when you know you're going into a bad situation and you want the extra evasion but I'm still not used to using it.

Basically 4LOM seems to me to be the only really useful pilot, and my impression is that he should be very stripped down, because he's going to die and quickly.

VI/Zuckuss/Title is basically how I'd look at running him.

Endman
May 18, 2010

That is not dead which can eternal lie, And with strange aeons even anime may die


Sharkopath posted:

Has anybody figured out good strats to use with Mist Hunter? I've only flown mine a few times and besides being pretty beefy I haven't figured out a good game plan for it besides throwing people into rocks. Cloak seems useful when you know you're going into a bad situation and you want the extra evasion but I'm still not used to using it.

I've flown Zuckuss with 4-LOM (Crew), Veteran Instincts, Mist Hunter, Tractor Beam & Fire-Control System. He works best with a bunch of other ships along and a reasonable initiative bid to make sure he can get the tractor on Soontir or Whisper.

His ability in particular (roll an extra red when attacking, your target rolls an extra green) is really good against low agility targets like Y-Wings, B-Wings, large base ships that aren't IG-88s, etc.

I annihilated a rebel swarm and SuperDash + Chopper at my last league night running Zuckuss, Torkil Mux and 3x Bandit Squadron Pilots with Feedback Arrays.

guts and bolts
May 16, 2015

Have you heard the Good News?

Sharkopath posted:

Has anybody figured out good strats to use with Mist Hunter? I've only flown mine a few times and besides being pretty beefy I haven't figured out a good game plan for it besides throwing people into rocks. Cloak seems useful when you know you're going into a bad situation and you want the extra evasion but I'm still not used to using it.

Mist Hunter seems like it wants to be the highest PS ship and it wants to be flown in a list of 4 or more ships. Tractor Beam where appropriate to move a dude into the arcs of your own dudes. Or just take a strong shot with Zuckuss. Dial is pretty red for 4-LOM's ability, or you could try Opportunist. I bought the Mist Hunter for Adaptability and Scum Cloak :/

Kai Tave
Jul 2, 2012
Fallen Rib

Endman posted:

I've flown Zuckuss with 4-LOM (Crew), Veteran Instincts, Mist Hunter, Tractor Beam & Fire-Control System. He works best with a bunch of other ships along and a reasonable initiative bid to make sure he can get the tractor on Soontir or Whisper.

His ability in particular (roll an extra red when attacking, your target rolls an extra green) is really good against low agility targets like Y-Wings, B-Wings, large base ships that aren't IG-88s, etc.

I annihilated a rebel swarm and SuperDash + Chopper at my last league night running Zuckuss, Torkil Mux and 3x Bandit Squadron Pilots with Feedback Arrays.

This was kinda what I was thinking as well. Zuckuss with VI looks like a good way to set the pick using a tractor beam, and can switch over to simply shooting with his primary to finish things off if necessary. 4-LOM's crew ability is something you maybe only use once per game, but the ability to lock down an Evade token can make the difference between killing a ship and it hanging on at 1 HP so it seems worth it as a finishing blow. Then just Headhunters everywhere.

Alternately just two Contracted Scouts with the usual loadout. The 2x Scout + Starfighter list I played at the store tourney yesterday had some legs but I feel like the guy was piling too much on the Scouts and not leveraging the Starfighter at all...he only barrel rolled like once or twice in both games and I never got hit with the tractor beam at all, even though I was expecting to. A Scout with Chimps, Plasma Torpedoes x2, Deadeye, and R4 Agromech is 33 points as is Endman's Zuckuss so that even gives you an initiative bid. Use the Scouts to alpha strike, then block for Zuckuss who can do tractor beam shenanigans both to either help set up in-arc torpedo shots or simply make the 2-red turrets more effective, and/or have Zuckuss come in for the kill with a 4-5 red primary attack.

The trick, I think, is you don't want to let the Mist Hunter get isolated because 8 HP with 1 Agility isn't long for this world.

Strobe
Jun 30, 2014
GW BRAINWORMS CREW
What's a sample size to start drawing conclusions about the performance of individual dice? After I rolled 16 and got one hit earlier today I want to find ones that end up being mostly average. Not cheaty, just average.

Endman
May 18, 2010

That is not dead which can eternal lie, And with strange aeons even anime may die


Kai Tave posted:

This was kinda what I was thinking as well. Zuckuss with VI looks like a good way to set the pick using a tractor beam, and can switch over to simply shooting with his primary to finish things off if necessary. 4-LOM's crew ability is something you maybe only use once per game, but the ability to lock down an Evade token can make the difference between killing a ship and it hanging on at 1 HP so it seems worth it as a finishing blow. Then just Headhunters everywhere.

Alternately just two Contracted Scouts with the usual loadout. The 2x Scout + Starfighter list I played at the store tourney yesterday had some legs but I feel like the guy was piling too much on the Scouts and not leveraging the Starfighter at all...he only barrel rolled like once or twice in both games and I never got hit with the tractor beam at all, even though I was expecting to. A Scout with Chimps, Plasma Torpedoes x2, Deadeye, and R4 Agromech is 33 points as is Endman's Zuckuss so that even gives you an initiative bid. Use the Scouts to alpha strike, then block for Zuckuss who can do tractor beam shenanigans both to either help set up in-arc torpedo shots or simply make the 2-red turrets more effective, and/or have Zuckuss come in for the kill with a 4-5 red primary attack.

The trick, I think, is you don't want to let the Mist Hunter get isolated because 8 HP with 1 Agility isn't long for this world.

I'm probably going to try out this list next, since I don't have two Jumpmasters:

Zuckuss (28)
Veteran Instincts (1)
4-LOM (1)
Fire-Control System (2)
Tractor Beam (1)
Mist Hunter (0)

Contracted Scout (25)
Deadeye (1)
Proton Torpedoes (4)
Extra Munitions (2)
Boba Fett (1)
R4 Agromech (2)
Guidance Chips (0)

Black Sun Soldier (13)
Feedback Array (2)

Black Sun Soldier (13)
Feedback Array (2)

Total: 98

With a two-point bid, Zuckuss should be able to pin down other PS 9 Aces, and Boba Fett should make for some fun upgrade stealing.

Jeb Bush 2012
Apr 4, 2007

A mathematician, like a painter or poet, is a maker of patterns. If his patterns are more permanent than theirs, it is because they are made with ideas.

Strobe posted:

What's a sample size to start drawing conclusions about the performance of individual dice? After I rolled 16 and got one hit earlier today I want to find ones that end up being mostly average. Not cheaty, just average.

Pretty much any inference you draw about them from just regular observations will be garbage because you as a human being suffer too many biases to evaluate that kind of thing.

If you really think you might have biased dice (you don't), just conduct an actual experiment, it's pretty easy to do. (choose a number. roll the dice that many times, counting the number of hits you get. use this to calculate how unlikely it was to have a count <= that number. if it's really extreme, maybe your dice actually are biased!)

ConfusedUs
Feb 24, 2004

Bees?
You want fucking bees?
Here you go!
ROLL INITIATIVE!!





Contracted Scout (25)
Deadeye (1)
Plasma Torpedoes (3)
Extra Munitions (2)
Boba Fett (1)
R4 Agromech (2)
Guidance Chips (0)

Trandoshan Slaver (29)
Bossk (2)
Gunner (5)
Zuckuss (1)
Inertial Dampeners (1)

Binayre Pirate (12)
Feedback Array (2)

Binayre Pirate (12)
Feedback Array (2)

Total: 100

[url="https:///xwing/?f=Scum%20and%20Villainy&d=v4!s!174:19,136,126,177,121,-1:-1:25:;134:-1,-1,133,21,174,108:-1:-1:;115:-1,112:-1:-1:;115:-1,112:-1:-1:&sn=BountyHunters"]View in Yet Another Squad Builder[/url]

https://geordanr.github.io/xwing/?f...n=BountyHunters

Scout hits hard and can eject key upgrades. Slaver hits like a drat truck. Zs help keep things off the slaver's rear end and make a no-fly zone for aces.

I've flown this with Torkil Mux + TLT instead of the Zs and Torkil was usless--the other two ships were great.

banned from Starbucks
Jul 18, 2004




Strobe posted:

What's a sample size to start drawing conclusions about the performance of individual dice?

Prob a lot more than any person is willing to do

Improbable Lobster
Jan 6, 2012

"From each according to his ability" said Ares. It sounded like a quotation.
Buglord
I would think you would have to roll in at least the hundreds to get any appreciable metrics. You'd also need a dice tower or something similar to eliminate any variables that might come from using your hands.

Strobe
Jun 30, 2014
GW BRAINWORMS CREW

Jeb Bush 2012 posted:

Pretty much any inference you draw about them from just regular observations will be garbage because you as a human being suffer too many biases to evaluate that kind of thing.

If you really think you might have biased dice (you don't), just conduct an actual experiment, it's pretty easy to do. (choose a number. roll the dice that many times, counting the number of hits you get. use this to calculate how unlikely it was to have a count <= that number. if it's really extreme, maybe your dice actually are biased!)

I am conducting an actual experiment; I'm looking to see what constitutes a reasonable sample size to determine any sort of conclusions that can be drawn.

I started with 100, even though I'm nearly certain that's too small to draw reasonable conclusions. Even then, I had one die roll a combined 34 hits/crits (average among all other dice tested was just under 50), which seems... significant.

hoiyes
May 17, 2007

Endman posted:

I'm probably going to try out this list next, since I don't have two Jumpmasters:

Zuckuss (28)
Veteran Instincts (1)
4-LOM (1)
Fire-Control System (2)
Tractor Beam (1)
Mist Hunter (0)

Contracted Scout (25)
Deadeye (1)
Proton Torpedoes (4)
Extra Munitions (2)
Boba Fett (1)
R4 Agromech (2)
Guidance Chips (0)

Black Sun Soldier (13)
Feedback Array (2)

Black Sun Soldier (13)
Feedback Array (2)

Total: 98

With a two-point bid, Zuckuss should be able to pin down other PS 9 Aces, and Boba Fett should make for some fun upgrade stealing.

Stealing this list. Zuckuss + 2 Zs also seems like it will be a great base for the theoretical new and competitive StarViper ace. (or just Guri++).

Also going to try pairing KananDash with that Hera+Ezra+FCS Lothal rebel that gives no fucks about stress. Huge pity that it's 99 points so no room for Chopper pilot. Would it be crazy to swap out Dashs Engine Upgrade for APL and Chopper in the Ghost?

ranbo das
Oct 16, 2013


Strobe posted:

I am conducting an actual experiment; I'm looking to see what constitutes a reasonable sample size to determine any sort of conclusions that can be drawn.

I started with 100, even though I'm nearly certain that's too small to draw reasonable conclusions. Even then, I had one die roll a combined 34 hits/crits (average among all other dice tested was just under 50), which seems... significant.

1000 would be a decent start

Jeb Bush 2012
Apr 4, 2007

A mathematician, like a painter or poet, is a maker of patterns. If his patterns are more permanent than theirs, it is because they are made with ideas.

Strobe posted:

I am conducting an actual experiment; I'm looking to see what constitutes a reasonable sample size to determine any sort of conclusions that can be drawn.

I started with 100, even though I'm nearly certain that's too small to draw reasonable conclusions. Even then, I had one die roll a combined 34 hits/crits (average among all other dice tested was just under 50), which seems... significant.

The link I gave you will tell you the answer! Plugging in 0.5 success chance and 100 rolls, the probability of getting a result that extreme is <1/1000, so unless you tested a lot of different dice it looks like you do in fact have a biased die, unless you messed up the test somehow. But you can always try another trial with the same die if you want to be sure.

ranbo das posted:

1000 would be a decent start

That's way more than you need unless you're looking to find biases of only a few percentage points.

Jeb Bush 2012 fucked around with this message at 03:37 on Mar 28, 2016

Madurai
Jun 26, 2012

Altered my Rudor/Cozlet/Alozen/Scimitar list from earlier, dropping the bomber's concussion charge to give Rudor Juke.

Decisively beat a double Jumpmaster build, got stomped by Corran/R2 + Chopper/Kanan/Chewie/autoblaster, and fought to the wire against a triple 666 list. I think it has promise.

Kai Tave
Jul 2, 2012
Fallen Rib
Ugh, I really don't look forward to Corran having a big ship partner that's an even bigger brick of hitpoints to chew through.

alg
Mar 14, 2007

A wolf was no less a wolf because a whim of chance caused him to run with the watch-dogs.

Ghost doesn't roll evade dice, doesn't have a decent turret, and doesn't have room for a Phantom with Corran escort.

Ghost's hull and shields go down quickly compared to the Falcon or an arc dodging Dash.

Kai Tave
Jul 2, 2012
Fallen Rib

alg posted:

Ghost doesn't roll evade dice, doesn't have a decent turret, and doesn't have room for a Phantom with Corran escort.

Ghost's hull and shields go down quickly compared to the Falcon or an arc dodging Dash.

I think that if I wanted to make the Ghost as tanky as possible I'd probably go with Kanan, RecSpec, Chewbacca crew, and Reinforced Deflectors. That plus your typical Corran build gives you 6 points left over for a turret on the Ghost. It just has to last long enough for Corran to do what he always does.

ranbo das
Oct 16, 2013


Jeb Bush 2012 posted:

The link I gave you will tell you the answer! Plugging in 0.5 success chance and 100 rolls, the probability of getting a result that extreme is <1/1000, so unless you tested a lot of different dice it looks like you do in fact have a biased die, unless you messed up the test somehow. But you can always try another trial with the same die if you want to be sure.


That's way more than you need unless you're looking to find biases of only a few percentage points.

Realistically any bias is only going to be a few percentage points. If it really was 34/100 consistently, I'm pretty sure the bias would be very noticeable (like a physical deformity or an unusually heavy die).

1/1000 is also not really a number I see where I'm like "oh ok must be true then". I blanked with 5 black dice in one roll in armada which is less likely than his result twice in one tournament.

guts and bolts
May 16, 2015

Have you heard the Good News?

Brunas posted:

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)



EDIT: also the dial upgrade kits are kinda swank. They rotate nicely, and seeing your whole dial at once is a not-bad side effect. Still, I guess you'd mostly get them for looks. I only run three-ship lists, so I got one Rebel and I'm getting one Empire, but I can't wait to see someone with three Jumpmaster icons loaded into their Scum dials.

guts and bolts fucked around with this message at 05:14 on Mar 28, 2016

Liquid Communism
Mar 9, 2004

коммунизм хранится в яичках

Kai Tave posted:

I think someone was running a list with some K-Wings but didn't make the cut, and thank god no one was running 4x TLT Y-Wings.

I'm curious. Does this actually work? I <3 Y-wings in general, and building a disgustingly hilarious Y-wing flight would be fun, but I was pretty sure it would also be pointless except as a desk decoration.

Liquid Communism fucked around with this message at 05:19 on Mar 28, 2016

ConfusedUs
Feb 24, 2004

Bees?
You want fucking bees?
Here you go!
ROLL INITIATIVE!!





Liquid Communism posted:

I'm curious. Does this actually work? I <3 Y-wings in general, and building a disgustingly hilarious Y-wing flight would be fun, but I was pretty sure it would also be pointless...

Four Y-Wings with TLT and a one-point droid each is actually a really strong list. Each one is throwing two 3-dice attacks per round.

It's by no means unbeatable, but it absolutely wrecks low-agility ships. Even high-agility ships often have a hard time weathering the storm.

Strobe
Jun 30, 2014
GW BRAINWORMS CREW
It's also loving boring to both fly and play against.

banned from Starbucks
Jul 18, 2004




Brunas posted:

Stop assigning species to Xyr you shitlord, Xe is trans-bovine



(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

lol wtf was probateable about this

Kai Tave
Jul 2, 2012
Fallen Rib

Liquid Communism posted:

I'm curious. Does this actually work? I <3 Y-wings in general, and building a disgustingly hilarious Y-wing flight would be fun, but I was pretty sure it would also be pointless except as a desk decoration.

It works to a point. 4x TLT lists are broadly effective but nobody's really tearing up the scene with them as far as I know, it's not The List to Beat but it's a list you need to consider if you're going to go to any tournaments because there's a reasonable chance someone's going to be using them. Also

Strobe posted:

It's also loving boring to both fly and play against.

this. Turret spam is dull as hell and honestly doesn't really do a lot to foster good habits as far as learning to fly well goes. At least triple K-Wing + Tactician builds, which are largely similar to 4x TLT Y-Wing lists, require you to take things like arc and specific ranges into consideration.

In general TLT lists will savage lists built around low agility ships, but high agility arc dodgers seem better equipped to loiter within the range-1 deadzone the turrets have and once the Y-Wing list loses a ship things can start to snowball. If you like Y-Wings in general though they have a place in a lot of lists and have generally been popular for a while. I just won a store tournament with a list including Dutch Vander and I wasn't actually the only player there using him, Rebel Gold Squad ion platforms have always been a staple, along with double-tap stressbots courtesy of the title, Kavil is a popular Scum Y-Wing pilot who just got a new turret to play with, etc.

ConfusedUs
Feb 24, 2004

Bees?
You want fucking bees?
Here you go!
ROLL INITIATIVE!!





Kai Tave posted:

In general TLT lists will savage lists built around low agility ships, but high agility arc dodgers seem better equipped to loiter within the range-1 deadzone the turrets have and once the Y-Wing list loses a ship things can start to snowball. If you like Y-Wings in general though they have a place in a lot of lists and have generally been popular for a while. I just won a store tournament with a list including Dutch Vander and I wasn't actually the only player there using him, Rebel Gold Squad ion platforms have always been a staple, along with double-tap stressbots courtesy of the title, Kavil is a popular Scum Y-Wing pilot who just got a new turret to play with, etc.

Yeah. A single TLT Y-Wing is a very solid inclusion in just about any rebel or scum list. For Rebels, if you add the BTL-4 title and the R3-A2 "stressbot" astromech, you suddenly have a powerful area denial tool at the cost of the full 360 degree turret.

Y-Wings are absolutely a thing that should be considered when building a list.

Kai Tave
Jul 2, 2012
Fallen Rib
General Battuta has been experimenting with XXY lists that actually use the Y-Wing as a torpedo platform and I'm curious how that's been panning out for him. I think torps plus a turret is a bit much to be packing onto a Y-Wing but I mean, I'm the guy who brings Seismic Charges so who am I to judge?

ConfusedUs
Feb 24, 2004

Bees?
You want fucking bees?
Here you go!
ROLL INITIATIVE!!





Kai Tave posted:

General Battuta has been experimenting with XXY lists that actually use the Y-Wing as a torpedo platform and I'm curious how that's been panning out for him. I think torps plus a turret is a bit much to be packing onto a Y-Wing but I mean, I'm the guy who brings Seismic Charges so who am I to judge?

You say that like Seismic Charges are a bad thing. They're not.

The area affect bombs are all really good--they're just situational. I once tagged seven ships with a single Seismic Charge. Well worth the two points it took to put that on my ship.

Kai Tave
Jul 2, 2012
Fallen Rib

ConfusedUs posted:

You say that like Seismic Charges are a bad thing. They're not.

The area affect bombs are all really good--they're just situational. I once tagged seven ships with a single Seismic Charge. Well worth the two points it took to put that on my ship.

Hey, you certainly don't have to tell me twice, but they're admittedly not a common sight on too many Y-Wings and even cheap ordnance can overload a ship that only has 8 HP to its name before it dies.

Jeb Bush 2012
Apr 4, 2007

A mathematician, like a painter or poet, is a maker of patterns. If his patterns are more permanent than theirs, it is because they are made with ideas.

ranbo das posted:

Realistically any bias is only going to be a few percentage points. If it really was 34/100 consistently, I'm pretty sure the bias would be very noticeable (like a physical deformity or an unusually heavy die).

1/1000 is also not really a number I see where I'm like "oh ok must be true then". I blanked with 5 black dice in one roll in armada which is less likely than his result twice in one tournament.

Getting an unusual roll in a tournament (when you take huge numbers of rolls, and only remember the weird ones) is not very surprising. Getting a 1/1000 result after doing a small fixed number of trials is surprising, and at least worth following up on. (because the concentration around the mean increases exponentially with the number of rolls, following this with rolling the die another 100 or 200 times should suffice to very strongly indicate whether it's biased or not)

thespaceinvader
Mar 30, 2011

The slightest touch from a Gol-Shogeg will result in Instant Death!

Liquid Communism posted:

I'm curious. Does this actually work? I <3 Y-wings in general, and building a disgustingly hilarious Y-wing flight would be fun, but I was pretty sure it would also be pointless except as a desk decoration.

It used to, but the advent of the u-boat is really going to screw with it. The Wolf Pack list should be able to murder a TLT a turn for the first two turns of engagement, before they can shoot.

Finster Dexter
Oct 20, 2014

Beyond is Finster's mad vision of Earth transformed.

ranbo das posted:

Realistically any bias is only going to be a few percentage points. If it really was 34/100 consistently, I'm pretty sure the bias would be very noticeable (like a physical deformity or an unusually heavy die).

1/1000 is also not really a number I see where I'm like "oh ok must be true then". I blanked with 5 black dice in one roll in armada which is less likely than his result twice in one tournament.

You'd think deformities would be noticeable but their not. I've had dice that I suspected were "off" and did run over 1000 rolls with them. For example, I had a D6 I always used to use for Battletech, and over 1000 rolls, it would consistently roll 5's 50% more often than any other result, i.e. if I could expect 100 rolls of a 3 or a 6, then I should expect 150 5's.

I've also had d20's that have had inconsistent results without noticeable deformities or weighting.

And your 1/1000 observation bias doesn't make his 100 rolls less rigorous because you rolled a certain result ONCE. His 100 data points trumps your ONE data point. We're not talking about something that actually happens 1/1000 times, we're talking about a result that SHOULD only happen 1/1000 times, but didn't. It's like getting heads on a coin flip 10 times in a row. There's flukes and then there's FLUKES.

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Tekopo
Oct 24, 2008

When you see it, you'll shit yourself.


I think the sweet spot for rolling to see if there is a bias or not is around 400 tries or so

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