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I just hope the bubble waits to pop for another 5 years or so. I should be selling the place I'm in and moving to the not MidWest, so a year or two in an apartment while waiting for housing prices to tumble down seems a-okay to me.
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Mar 28, 2016 15:52
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I don't think it is a bubble as much as a inventory shortage depending on where you live. Inventory is extremely low considering the number of millennials who are now looking to buy since production essentially stopped after 2008. Prices will probably be on the high end for a while until production increases substantially.... at least in Portland.
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Mar 28, 2016 15:55
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The entry level market is in bad shape. There is no cheap land anywhere people want to first time at. A two hour commute is soul crushing.
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Mar 28, 2016 16:03
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Yeah, there's huge inventory shortage near me as well. I bought my house a year ago and it's gone up in value by around 15k. Which is basically just the cost to sell it, but it's something.
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Mar 28, 2016 16:03
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Long post incoming. Wife and I have had a lot of discussions about house buying. I have managed to hold off on house buying during our training, as the numbers seemed to not make it worth it, but she is getting antsy at this point. Her general take continues to be 'we're throwing away money renting' despite multiple explanations of additional costs that come with home ownership and that short-term buying doesn't make much sense. Of course, the majority of our friends did buy houses while still in training, and she asks if they all made the wrong decision, to which I say, if they're likely going to sell in 3 years then most likely yes unless the market timing magically happens to favor them when they buy and sell. Anyways, her salary is going to go significantly up in July, and mine will likely do so as well next July. So probable combined gross income will be somewhere between $250k-350k/yr. Current non-requirement funds are - $21,000 high yield savings (1%) - $22,000 3 year CD (1.3% rate, ugh) which matures this year - $14,000 her parents-controlled brokerage acct, which we plan to take control of soon The CD and brokerage funds I consider part of house downpayment, with the savings account as the e-fund, though I'd prefer if that were double, as currently it'll cover just under 3 months of expenses. On top of this, we have a combined student debt of about $350,000 at 6.8%. Probably will be going for PSLF, so plan is to make minimum payments unless I take a job which disqualifies me for it, in which case it should be possible to pay them down in 3-5 years. After usual monthly expenses, minimum loan payments, and saving 15% toward retirement, I estimate that we can set aside probably $3-3.5k/mo toward a down payment. So we could probably afford a $350k house with 20% + closing costs + furnishing in 2 years. Whether this buys us a reasonable house or not is very dependent on where we end up. If we go somewhere far less expensive than where we are now, this may be fine for a house that we decide to stay in for the long haul. If we stay in our current market (Boston area), then we're pretty screwed. The latter option is a significant possibility (her dept just gave her a big position starting in July, and they've already started talking to my dept about keeping me on, but giving what they're looking for right now, the answer is probably no), but hard to know until the job search starts in earnest. Her thought is that, if we stay here, we should get a 'starter condo' to build equity, again thinking that we're throwing away money with renting, and then sell it 5 yrs from now (so probably only 3-4 years actually living there) before our 3 month old son starts school and move up to a reasonably-sized house. My thought is that, with that time horizon and what we can actually afford at $350k in our current market, I doubt we'd make enough on appreciation to make it worthwhile. My personal preference is to wait until we can save up enough for the 20% down + closing costs + furnishing/etc for a house we would plan to stay in rather than go through the whole 'starter house' thing, which would probably move the saving time closer to 4-5 years, but is there are argument to be made for getting a smaller house first?
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Mar 28, 2016 16:20
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If she's not already aware, you should tell her that you pay about 3-4% in closing costs when you buy, and about 10-11% closing costs when you sell. So if you sell in 5 years as she's thinking, on a 350k house you'll spend an extra 14k potentially on closing at purchase time, then 35-39k on closing when you sell. The selling cost makes it hard enough to justify buying for such a short timeframe. In the certainly-possible scenario that a real estate crash happens within five years, it will be disastrous. I know you probably know all that, but I think you really need to hammer in the cost of selling, not to mention the stress that can come with selling. It is a million times worse than buying, and you guys sound like you will be very busy and stressed out already with what sound like demanding careers and a toddler. Nail Rat fucked around with this message at 16:48 on Mar 28, 2016 |
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Mar 28, 2016 16:45
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Chu020 posted:Long post incoming. Wife and I have had a lot of discussions about house buying. I have managed to hold off on house buying during our training, as the numbers seemed to not make it worth it, but she is getting antsy at this point. Her general take continues to be 'we're throwing away money renting' despite multiple explanations of additional costs that come with home ownership and that short-term buying doesn't make much sense. Of course, the majority of our friends did buy houses while still in training, and she asks if they all made the wrong decision, to which I say, if they're likely going to sell in 3 years then most likely yes unless the market timing magically happens to favor them when they buy and sell. Take this as a super non-expert opinion, but I have done a couple house hunts in MA , one in 2002 and one in 2009-2012. Try to find some realistic resources to explain the renting is throwing away money myth. There are some in the start of this thread, it gets rehashed every once in a while, and there are outside resources like the somewhat corny (but from what I can tell, somewhat accurate) http://affordanything.com/2015/11/24/is-renting-better-than-buying-should-i-rent-or-buy/. Show her the housing prices inflation-adjusted (http://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted/ or http://www.jparsons.net/housingbubble/), explain to her why you are starting out in the hole like 6-9%, then rolling the dice on highly leveraged appreciation, the cons and cons of condos, etc. The entire thread should honestly be required reading for anyone thinking about buying a house for the first time. Since I am a prudent investor that was able to time the market (aka pure fuckin amazing luck) I bought my starter house in 2003, looked for the good-school-system-family-sized home that we bought in 2012. I sold the starter home for less than I paid, but that minor loss was more than made up for by the fact that the huge fuckoff dreamhouse was also depressed in price by the same percentage when we bought in 2012. For me, when I see people looking at timeframes of 2-8 years, I can't justify the risk of getting basically trapped in a starter home just when you start to really really care about the school system, location, available space, etc. For me, I bought knowing kids were a long way off (our first was 2011), and like I said it just HAPPENED to work out that we sort of lucked into a house that fit our criteria after an on-again-off-again 4-year search between 09 and 12. Had the bubble not collapsed yet, we were basically looking at a serious sidegrade to upgrade the school system. Luck determined that we were able to upgrade in terms of space/commute/community as well, I guess. I'm not sure what the current market for you is (in the city, inside 128, inside 495, just outside 495, etc), but with your projected income my gut reaction is that you can afford more for a house. Whether you SHOULD or not is up to you, and somewhat goes against the conservatism in the thread. If I understand correctly the constraint is mainly on the down payment, which is where we were in 2012 as well. I've never looked inside 128 (we're on a single income), but from 128 out to past 495 you're going to have to decide how good a public school system/general town feel (open space, walkable charming downtown, industry/commercial presence etc) you want. Balanced against the actual house and location, of course: commute times, number of beds/baths, square footage, age. $350k may buy you a house very acceptable to you in the town you want, I don't know. Certainly PM me or I can give you an email address if you want to talk more. Long story short, do not buy a loving starter condo in or near Boston because your wife is getting antsy.
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Mar 28, 2016 17:09
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Jesus christ, $350k in student debt did you BOTH go to harvard law? I would not buy a condo for the same amount as my outstanding student debt balance, even if you're making really really good money you need to chop away at that for a few years before home ownership is something you should consider.
Pryor on Fire fucked around with this message at 18:59 on Mar 28, 2016 |
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Mar 28, 2016 18:57
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Chu020 posted:
Hold on. You guys are going to have a combined income of 250-350k, but you're going to get a job that qualifies for PSLF? Is like 90% of this income your wife's? Also, neither of you has these fantastic jobs- not till later this year and also next year, right? So what's your current income? You guys (you?) have what I would describe as a "poo poo-ton" of student loan debt and some jobs that are supposed-to-happen. Don't buy squat until you are actually making some of this tremendous income and until you've paid down some of your enormous existing debt burden. You guys are paying $2000/month in interest without touching the principal jesus christ Uncle Enzo fucked around with this message at 19:09 on Mar 28, 2016 |
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Mar 28, 2016 19:05
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Yeah, even if you had infinite money and no student loans I would say that you should wait a few years for your life to settle down so that you make sure you like your jobs, want to stay in that area, don't decide to have kids and move for a new school district, etc.
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Mar 28, 2016 19:09
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Chu020 posted:Long post incoming. Wife and I have had a lot of discussions about house buying. I have managed to hold off on house buying during our training, as the numbers seemed to not make it worth it, but she is getting antsy at this point. Her general take continues to be 'we're throwing away money renting' despite multiple explanations of additional costs that come with home ownership and that short-term buying doesn't make much sense. Of course, the majority of our friends did buy houses while still in training, and she asks if they all made the wrong decision, to which I say, if they're likely going to sell in 3 years then most likely yes unless the market timing magically happens to favor them when they buy and sell. If you are considering moving in the next 5 years, and considering major life changes do not buy a home. With less than 20% down and an emergency fund you could be unable to sell the home and stuck with a mortgage payment with even a small change in the market. With your income level this is not as big of an issue, but it is still a substantial amount of money for closing costs that can be avoided. The costs to rent a condo/apartment and the costs to rent a home once you need the additional space are important here for the buy vs rent financial decision. Accounting for 1% a year in maintenance, 4% in buying costs, and 6% in selling costs is $875 a month that you don't have to spend while renting if you sell after 5 years.
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Mar 28, 2016 19:17
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Buy your wife an account and give her a link to the thread.
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Mar 28, 2016 19:29
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lampey posted:Accounting for 1% a year in maintenance, 4% in buying costs, and 6% in selling costs is $875 a month that you don't have to spend while renting if you sell after 5 years. And 6% isn't close to what the actual seller costs will be. 6% is just the cost for the agent fees; there will be more in the form of title insurance, attorney fees(and you don't want to go with a cheap one, I found out the hard way), etc. and that's assuming you don't have to give any credits as concessions in lieu of making repairs/upgrades as requested. Do never buy, but if you do, do never sell.
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Mar 28, 2016 19:38
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Here, the buyer pays for the title insurance and attorney fees, etc. That's where the bulk of the 4% buyer's closing costs are from. When we bought our house, the seller paid 7% in closing costs including all the repairs we had done (including a pipe leak that was obvious and expensive). edit Actually checked my HUD, they paid 6.3%, with 6% being the agent fees. Also, our agent rebate paid for our entire closing costs when buying. It's just different per person. Do your research, do your due diligence, have your emergency fund full, calculate all actual costs including opportunity costs when comparing to renting. You'll probably come out alright. Rurutia fucked around with this message at 19:46 on Mar 28, 2016 |
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Mar 28, 2016 19:40
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Interesting that the buyer would be paying the seller's attorney fees, if the seller is getting to choose their own attorney. In Illinois they can range from a $500 cut-rate attorney who's terrible and doesn't give a poo poo about advocating for you(these guys just go to closing after closing all day every day and have no time to address any concerns you have and will not fight the buyer's attorney on anything, instead they'll fight you to try to just close the drat sale) to 2 or 3 times that for someone decent. Title insurance is split with the seller paying the bulk (this also seems weird to me; the buyer has to pay for insurance saying that they'll actually get the title?).
Nail Rat fucked around with this message at 19:46 on Mar 28, 2016 |
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Mar 28, 2016 19:44
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Chu020 posted:Long post incoming. Wife and I have had a lot of discussions about house buying. I have managed to hold off on house buying during our training, as the numbers seemed to not make it worth it, but she is getting antsy at this point. Her general take continues to be 'we're throwing away money renting' despite multiple explanations of additional costs that come with home ownership and that short-term buying doesn't make much sense. Of course, the majority of our friends did buy houses while still in training, and she asks if they all made the wrong decision, to which I say, if they're likely going to sell in 3 years then most likely yes unless the market timing magically happens to favor them when they buy and sell. How soon are you getting these high-paying jobs, and what are your jobs now? A bank is going to want to see roughly 2 years of steady income, which is your projected buy date anyway so that's good, but if your wife gets antsy and wants to buy in 6 months then it's worth pointing out that the bank is going to use your yearly income from the prior two years (2014 and 2015), whatever that happens to be. $350k in student loan debts is a lot, do all of your friends who bought houses also have that hanging around their necks? It looks like you've run a budget and that you have your finances in order, which is really great. I'm sure you've already run these numbers but with roughly $60k in liquid-ish assets and setting aside $3k/mo for down payment, you'd have $130k which in 2 years puts you at $130k. Plenty of down payment and plenty of wiggle room left over for first-year emergency expenses. That's really great. You're also talking about making an upper class income, so you'd probably be able to absorb it even if you lost some money on buying a house so long as you're not frivolously spending in other ways. If this becomes a case of "I know it's not a great financial move but I want a house anyway" then you're still in a pretty good position, all things considered. Losing $10-20k on a bad home-buying investment is not so bad when you have your kind of income, it sucks to lose money but that amount sucks a lot less when your income is high. Another thing to do is to run a serious estimate of what you'd be paying before/after buying. You're presumably paying rent + some number of utilities, so you'd compare that against the monthly cost of a mortgage, property taxes, whatever additional utilities (odds are as a renter you're not paying for gas, trash, sewer, etc), maintenance (1% of the home value per year is a rough estimate for a well-constructed, newish house), HOA, property taxes... and probably some others I'm missing. Then take whatever your purchase price was and subtract off 15% of the value for closing costs and convert that into a "monthly" expense spread out over 4-5 years (however long you plan on staying there). Compare that to the cost of renting a similarly-sized place. Since you're planning on moving in such a short time frame, odds are good that you won't be coming out ahead and your "equity" will be absorbed by closing costs. I don't know how your enormous student loan debt might factor into this (it definitely doesn't help you) but with everything else here I think buying in 2 years is totally reasonable if it makes you and your wife happy. Moving 3 years after that will almost definitely result in you losing money but not a disastrous amount, especially not on your income.
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Mar 28, 2016 19:54
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SpartanIV posted:One of my friends told me her boyfriend (Also my friend) and her bought a house last weekend. They looked at it and then were told to make an offer because the owners had already received one. She didn't really know any important details as he's handling everything but she did say they "waived contingencies" with their offer. Are they buying in DC during the spring season, where that is literally the rule because if you don't waive contingencies the next guy's offer that's even just slightly lower with no contingencies wins out? The DC market is absolutely bananas. If my wife and I bought our current home this year instead of last year, we wouldn't be able to afford it (since we didn't want to put anything less than 20% down because of that would be burning money on top of the flushing money we did during the basic act of buying a house).
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Mar 28, 2016 20:10
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Nah, we're in the Dallas/Fort Worth area. I shopped around on houses a year or two ago and it was tough, but it wasn't that insane. I really hope this bubble bursts in the next few years.
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Mar 28, 2016 20:20
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There may be bubbles in concentrated areas but around me it's just lack of inventory, not really speculation on potential demand or catching a rising tide. New construction is at an absolute trickle. The neighborhood the wife and I want to live in had 3 builders and probably 80 houses built between '09 and '14 with plans for another 40 more. But something happened and now its just one builder who opens up 6 lots, sells the lots, builds them, goes before town to get another road approval, sells the next 6 lots, etc. And demand to get in is still super high... It's torture. Everything else is split level or 30+ year old colonials in the real boonies. Yay New England!!!
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Mar 28, 2016 20:44
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A bubble can look a lot like lack of inventory, if a lot of people who shouldn't be buying (especially at the prices they're buying at) are doing so.
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Mar 28, 2016 20:46
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Nail Rat posted:A bubble can look a lot like lack of inventory, if a lot of people who shouldn't be buying (especially at the prices they're buying at) are doing so. Definitely a lack of inventory in DC, since the only real suburbs in DC are in Maryland and Virginia. That and the fact that developers are buying huge swaths of land to build big-rear end apartment buildings also contributes to the lack of inventory. One way they've tried to get around that is with the infamous pop-up.  It's a way to turn one house into two or three (or more in that picture) condos, giving you all of the inconvenience of living in a house with all of the inconvenience of living in a condo in one neat package! I've seen developers make a tidy profit off of them, buying lovely houses for $350-$450k in Capitol Hill East and turn then into two modern condos selling for around $700-$750k apiece.
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Mar 28, 2016 21:18
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Rofl how is that even possible on a permitting level? Aren't there height restrictions in place?
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Mar 28, 2016 22:32
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LuiCypher posted:Definitely a lack of inventory in DC, since the only real suburbs in DC are in Maryland and Virginia. That and the fact that developers are buying huge swaths of land to build big-rear end apartment buildings also contributes to the lack of inventory. It's fitting that it looks like a giant middle finger from the rich people who live there to the neighbors
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Mar 28, 2016 22:39
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HEY NONG MAN posted:Rofl how is that even possible on a permitting level? Aren't there height restrictions in place? Nothing is impossible with the right amount of zoning variances! Those positions require only modest donations when compared to the cost of real estate development. It looks like there is a huge 6 story building right next door anyway.
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Mar 28, 2016 22:39
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SpartanIV posted:Nah, we're in the Dallas/Fort Worth area. I shopped around on houses a year or two ago and it was tough, but it wasn't that insane. I really hope this bubble bursts in the next few years. DFW, and especially the north Dallas area, is unlikely to burst even if it does nationally. We truly do have the population growth and housing shortage to support it. Look at all the companies moving here and the 3% unemployment rate... My neighborhood is 3 miles from the new Toyota headquarters and they have driven the price up 10% just in the last year, with more relocations happening throughout the next 4 years.
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Mar 28, 2016 23:34
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Nail Rat posted:I'm waiting for it to hit so I can get a house in Chicago for under 500k If you can gave up on being able to walk to cta/metra, Chicago gets very affordable. There's a huge bidding war for the limited homes that are close to said rail (and in a white area)
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Mar 29, 2016 00:00
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mastershakeman posted:If you can gave up on being able to walk to cta/metra, Chicago gets very affordable. There's a huge bidding war for the limited homes that are close to said rail (and in a white area) Hi from Bridgeport, my neighborhood's majority white (depending on your definition of white), I bought within walking distance of the orange line, and my house (an as-is fixer-upper, admittedly) was sub-$200k. Yall's just scared of the south side.
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Mar 29, 2016 01:24
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Droo posted:Yeah, even if you had infinite money and no student loans I would say that you should wait a few years for your life to settle down so that you make sure you like your jobs, want to stay in that area, don't decide to have kids and move for a new school district, etc. Personally I would rent a nice house and throw money into the highest interest rate loan, assuming you don't have kids. What if she decides to only work part time? Forget the PSLF. And the work environment of a health center in an underserved community can be toxic. Don't give up your freedom for something so pennywise.
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Mar 29, 2016 01:33
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minivanmegafun posted:Hi from Bridgeport, my neighborhood's majority white (depending on your definition of white), I bought within walking distance of the orange line, and my house (an as-is fixer-upper, admittedly) was sub-$200k. Yall's just scared of the south side. South side Irish aren't really white , let's face facts here.
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Mar 29, 2016 01:36
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mastershakeman posted:If you can gave up on being able to walk to cta/metra, Chicago gets very affordable. There's a huge bidding war for the limited homes that are close to said rail (and in a white area) If I had the cash I'd be heavily looking up in Andersonville near the new Metra station, property values and rental rates going to be going up over there.
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Mar 29, 2016 02:28
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Andy Dufresne posted:DFW, and especially the north Dallas area, is unlikely to burst even if it does nationally. We truly do have the population growth and housing shortage to support it. Look at all the companies moving here and the 3% unemployment rate... My neighborhood is 3 miles from the new Toyota headquarters and they have driven the price up 10% just in the last year, with more relocations happening throughout the next 4 years. My brother and I just recently closed on a house in North Dallas (Plano), and yeah, we saw a ton of houses before managing it. A former co-worker recently sold his house, which he bought for 160k 3 years ago, for 300k, in the same general area. Granted, they'd done some fairly significant renovations, but maybe 25-30k worth. We didn't believe it until we saw the actual paperwork. All the Toyota, etc. stuff really has made it a bit maddening.
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Mar 29, 2016 02:53
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FakePoet posted:My brother and I just recently closed on a house in North Dallas (Plano), and yeah, we saw a ton of houses before managing it. A former co-worker recently sold his house, which he bought for 160k 3 years ago, for 300k, in the same general area. Granted, they'd done some fairly significant renovations, but maybe 25-30k worth. We didn't believe it until we saw the actual paperwork. What do you consider fairly significant? $30K really doesn't get you too much if it is actual quality work and material.
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Mar 29, 2016 04:33
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spwrozek posted:What do you consider fairly significant? $30K really doesn't get you too much if it is actual quality work and material. Basically a kitchen/bathroom, and general decorating (his wife seemingly has a decent eye for that sort of thing). And "significant" is probably an unintentionally loaded word, more "this will appeal to the HGTV crowd", though everyone who's seen it says it's very well done. Given the number of people already looking for anything in the area, it apparently pushed the number higher than anyone thought reasonable. They apparently had 6 offers at or above asking after the first day of showings. They also did the work themselves, mostly, with some discounted assistance from a contractor we all know through work.
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Mar 29, 2016 05:09
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$30k will get you a lot if you're doing some of the work yourself. I'm flipping everything inside the drywall in my 1450 sqft home for about that much. The things I'm paying for are roughly: countertops, backsplash, and sink ($4k), floors + baseboards ($10k), interior doors(14) + exterior doors(3) ($6.5k), appliances ($3.5k), then the popcorn removal and painting that I gave up on and hired out was $2k, so I'm at $26k with only the master bath left, where we will probably leave the existing floor, tub, and shower, but have professionals replace the countertops, paint, and popcorn ceiling, but we will paint the cabinets and replace the mirrors ourselves. I have saved a bit of money by doing stuff myself. I have an electrician FIL so I was able to do new switches, outlets, and lights throughout the house for less than $500 in materials. Granted, he was mostly there to make sure his daughter didn't die in an electrical fire. The biggest ticket item that I saved money on was sanding, priming, and painting the old cabinets. That was the most labor intensive job I've ever tackled, but they turned out fantastic. eta:  
Andy Dufresne fucked around with this message at 16:25 on Mar 29, 2016 |
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Mar 29, 2016 16:21
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Doing it yourself does save money for sure. I spent $17k on a complete gut of Master bath and bedroom, did it completely myself except $300 of plumbing work. Nice cabinets, granite, drop sinks, real glass in the shower, nice tile, good wood, solid wood doors, real quality faucets, etc drive the price up a lot. A faucet from home depot is made with a lot of plastic and will fail in 5 years very very often. Compared to something made of metal with real quality that lasts way longer than it is in style. But option one is ~$50 and option 2 is ~$300. Most people choose option 1, looks nice when you flip a place though!
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Mar 29, 2016 16:33
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Yeah, after seeing the houses flipped by professionals when I was shopping, I decided I never wanted one of those. You can tell the remodeling that was done by actual homeowners has had a lot more thought and TLC put into it.
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Mar 29, 2016 16:36
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If flippers didn't exist, who would keep the laminate flooring manufacturers in business?
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Mar 29, 2016 16:55
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Checking in to say that I love and hate my new house. Hate, because it cost me like $8k more to get the septic finished than we thought, though we did get a huge chunk of the total price off the house initially. Love, because it's nestled in the Colorado foothills, surrounded by parks (dog wonderland!), and 29 minutes away from work. It was still in the mid $200s (a lot to me), but gently caress, every ticky-tacky bullshit house in Denver is that price these days, and they're usually stacked right on top of each other next to the freeway. Now, on to a $1,600 plumbing bill for fixing all the poo poo the PO hosed up and installing a bunch of new faucets we already purchased!
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Mar 29, 2016 16:58
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mastershakeman posted:If you can gave up on being able to walk to cta/metra, Chicago gets very affordable. There's a huge bidding war for the limited homes that are close to said rail (and in a white area) I won't, so I'm waiting and/or saving. Being able to walk a block to get on the brown line and then a block to work has spoiled me after having lived in the suburbs for years before that. I'll be able to buy a house or townhouse in 3-4 years, it's just a question of how much house or townhouse, so c'mon crash! Nail Rat fucked around with this message at 17:23 on Mar 29, 2016 |
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Mar 29, 2016 17:07
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canyoneer posted:If flippers didn't exist, who would keep the laminate flooring manufacturers in business? Landlords. Dear god they love cheap laminate.
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Mar 29, 2016 17:12
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