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Sheng-ji Yang posted:http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/trumps-uphill-delegate-scramble-221443 I like the trump advisor saying "big deal were talking to delegates now too" as if being months behind in preparing for this thing isn't already hilariously incompetent
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Apr 3, 2016 21:03
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Pinterest Mom posted:Oh Ben. trump has the best surrogates, nobody but the best for trump edit: by the way even with the fine print that this is among non-trump voters its really sexy you could say well gosh even most of them won't go all the way with denying him the nom but i think in a properly functioning party you'd see much less willingness to gently caress with the will of the voters, i think that's a sign that the perception of legitimacy of what passes for democratic institutions in these pick-our-private-party's-nominee competitions has been badly frayed by this primary on their side BanjoFish posted:From the NY tracker: oystertoadfish fucked around with this message at 21:14 on Apr 3, 2016 |
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Apr 3, 2016 21:09
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pathetic little tramp posted:Ugh there needs to be a "click for joementum's last delegate count post" button, I don't klnow if Google's T736 to C463 with 943 left is correct. According to The Green Papers the current count is: Trump 752 Cruz 469 Rubio (RIP) 173 Kasich 144 Others 15 Uncommitted 32 887 available
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Apr 3, 2016 21:24
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Slate Action posted:According to The Green Papers the current count is: Okay so with that count, the best scenario for Cruz is 469+887 which is 1356. If Trump triggers WTA in NY, that number is 1261, meaning Trump basically just has to win 24 delegates outside of NY to eliminate Cruz mathematically.
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Apr 3, 2016 21:31
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pathetic little tramp posted:Okay so with that count, the best scenario for Cruz is 469+887 which is 1356. If Trump triggers WTA in NY, that number is 1261, meaning Trump basically just has to win 24 delegates outside of NY to eliminate Cruz mathematically. But it's not about mathematically eliminating him. There's only one person in to win the delegate race. The rest have to deny him 1237, and hope for skullduggery come July.
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Apr 3, 2016 21:50
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Dalaram posted:But it's not about mathematically eliminating him. There's only one person in to win the delegate race. The rest have to deny him 1237, and hope for skullduggery come July. I love that this primary election have (or might have, who the hell knows?) different rules for different candidates. Democracy, working as intended! 
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Apr 3, 2016 21:53
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lilljonas posted:I love that this primary election have (or might have, who the hell knows?) different rules for different candidates. Democracy, working as intended! Democracy? No, The Party Decides. 
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Apr 3, 2016 21:57
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Every primary election uses convoluted dumb rules that are not as democratic as voters may expect. This one is just the rare example where one of the candidates won't make it past the arbitrary number of delegates required to be the candidate.
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Apr 3, 2016 21:57
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What's stopping the RNC from just funding 4 skeleton campaigns in 2020 to ensure nobody hits 1237? Because this poo poo is only getting crazier and we'll have that Morrow guy from Texas and Martin Shkreli vying for the GOP nom next time around.
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Apr 3, 2016 21:58
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Primaries give the average voter a larger say in who their party's candidate is while also (usually) allowing the party bigwigs to still have some control or the final say. That second part is one that few people really grasp.
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Apr 3, 2016 21:59
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The Wall will make all of America a safe space (after we deport the illegals too)
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Apr 3, 2016 21:59
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Dalaram posted:But it's not about mathematically eliminating him. There's only one person in to win the delegate race. The rest have to deny him 1237, and hope for skullduggery come July. Oh I know that. but it's a big psychological point. The next point is when it becomes impossible for Cruz to overtake Trump's delegate count.
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Apr 3, 2016 21:59
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i saw that we had talked about the tennessee gop apparently succeeding at putting a few anti-trump delegates in their delegation but i missed this part http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/tennessee-gop-delegates-donald-trump-221500 quote:an already heightened sense of confrontation was exacerbated when Trump’s national director of social media tweeted out the personal cellphone number of the state party chairman, Ryan Haynes
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Apr 3, 2016 22:00
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Fidel Castronaut posted:Every primary election uses convoluted dumb rules that are not as democratic as voters may expect. This one is just the rare example where one of the candidates won't make it past the arbitrary number of delegates required to be the candidate. Nah, Trump is going to have a majority.
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Apr 3, 2016 22:01
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nachos posted:What's stopping the RNC from just funding 4 skeleton campaigns in 2020 to ensure nobody hits 1237? Because this poo poo is only getting crazier and we'll have that Morrow guy from Texas and Martin Shkreli vying for the GOP nom next time around. Still need rubes to vote for them. And at this point, rubes seem to be in the majority.
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Apr 3, 2016 22:07
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nachos posted:What's stopping the RNC from just funding 4 skeleton campaigns in 2020 to ensure nobody hits 1237? Because this poo poo is only getting crazier and we'll have that Morrow guy from Texas and Martin Shkreli vying for the GOP nom next time around. Wouldn't it make more sense to bring in a superdelegate system like the Dems have?
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Apr 3, 2016 22:10
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pathetic little tramp posted:Ugh there needs to be a "click for joementum's last delegate count post" button, I don't klnow if Google's T736 to C463 with 943 left is correct. NYT has a good primary page for this stuff: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html
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Apr 3, 2016 22:11
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hasn't trump been getting a larger % of delegates than raw vote share because of winner-takes-all/most rules at the state and congressional district level? adding more candidates would only increase the degree to which the candidate with the largest plurality (that's trump, this year) gets a larger share of delegates than votes now trump also did well in proportional states, new hampshire for example, but i think the party's best move for fighting off a large minority of the party unifying behind an unacceptable candidate would be to make things more proportional
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Apr 3, 2016 22:13
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https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/716738425219469312 https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/716739517571534849 If Cruz ends up with 18/28 of the ND delegates and the other 10 go Trump, that is right on par for Trump according to the 538 projection. (Keep in mind that none of these delegates are actually bound)
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Apr 3, 2016 22:36
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I was asked this week by a co-worker who I would like to see as Trump's running mate, if we are indeed living in a reality where he gets the nomination. I answered Carson, because having Friend Ben trying to sing Trump's praises in the news for another five months would be the second-greatest gift of all The greatest gift would be the absolute circus of the VP debate
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Apr 3, 2016 22:38
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Top Bunk Wanker posted:He's too stupid to realize why sneering about how fragile little Trump supporters need safe spaces three sentences before explicitly saying he would go out of his way to specifically try to grade them lower on assignments perfectly illustrates the point he thought he was mocking. Or I just don't give a poo poo about their feelings. Being a Trump supporter is a choice, and they chose poorly. I'll start caring when they stop supporting people who on a daily basis try to pass laws or run on platforms to pass laws that discriminate against people. (Am I being a hypocrite by discriminating against them? Possibly. Do a give s gently caress? No.) As for the person who said I'm probably a piece of poo poo in real life: yeah, pretty much. 
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Apr 3, 2016 22:38
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Is the WTA trigger in NY 50% flat? Are they proportionally distributed if it is not hit?
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Apr 3, 2016 22:38
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Flobbster posted:Or I just don't give a poo poo about their feelings. Being a Trump supporter is a choice, and they chose poorly. I'll start caring when they stop supporting people who on a daily basis try to pass laws or run on platforms to pass laws that discriminate against people. (Am I being a hypocrite by discriminating against them? Possibly. Do a give s gently caress? No.) whoa drat this guy doesn't give a gently caress!
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Apr 3, 2016 22:40
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Cabinet posted:Is the WTA trigger in NY 50% flat? Are they proportionally distributed if it is not hit? "81 district delegates are bound to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the state's 27 congressional districts. Each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates who are slated by the Presidential candidates prior to the primary. In each district: If a candidate receives more than 50% or only 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the vote, that candidate receives all 3 delegates. Otherwise, if at least 2 presidential contenders receive 20% or more of the vote, the candidate with the most votes receives 2 delegates and the candidate with the second most of votes receives 1 delegate. Otherwise, if no presidential contender receives 20% or more of the vote, the party will elect 3 delegates without considering the results of the primary. 14 At-Large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 1 bonus delegates plus 3 RNC delegates) are bound to presidential contenders "winner-take-most" based on the statewide primary results. 11 of these delegates (the 10 base at-large delegates plus 1 bonus delegates) are elected at the state committee meeting. If a candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, that candidate receives all 14 delegates. Otherwise, the delegates are distributed proportionally to those candidates receiving 20% or more of the vote. Round fractions to the nearest whole number. If too few delegates are allocated, the candidate receiving the largest vote receives those the remaining delegates. If too many delegates are allocated, subtract those delegates from the candidate(s) who met the threshold but had the smallest number of votes."
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Apr 3, 2016 22:40
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Bernice Anders posted:whoa drat this guy doesn't give a gently caress! But maybe I do, since I made the effort of posting that reply 
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Apr 3, 2016 22:43
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Flobbster posted:Or I just don't give a poo poo about their feelings. Being a Trump supporter is a choice, and they chose poorly. I'll start caring when they stop supporting people who on a daily basis try to pass laws or run on platforms to pass laws that discriminate against people. (Am I being a hypocrite by discriminating against them? Possibly. Do a give s gently caress? No.) It's good that you are no longer a professor.
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Apr 3, 2016 22:45
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tinstaach posted:I was asked this week by a co-worker who I would like to see as Trump's running mate, if we are indeed living in a reality where he gets the nomination. I answered Carson, because having Friend Ben trying to sing Trump's praises in the news for another five months would be the second-greatest gift of all thats the question. would he pick someone qualified or would he pick some toady nutjob loyalist. trump could go either way.
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Apr 3, 2016 22:46
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a cop posted:It's good that you are no longer a professor. No poo poo. The pay was terrible for the work I did, and I couldn't stand a good portion of my lazy-rear end students (of course, there were great ones too). I'll be the first one to agree with you!
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Apr 3, 2016 22:47
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Flobbster posted:But maybe I do, since I made the effort of posting that reply This guy's out of control!
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Apr 3, 2016 22:47
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Flobbster posted:No poo poo. The pay was terrible for the work I did, and I couldn't stand a good portion of my lazy-rear end students (of course, there were great ones too). I'll be the first one to agree with you! Holy poo poo, he's the FIRST ONE to agree with you?!?! Holy gently caress!!
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Apr 3, 2016 22:48
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Bernice Anders posted:Holy poo poo, he's the FIRST ONE to agree with you?!?! Holy gently caress!! Me so edgy~
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Apr 3, 2016 22:48
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HappyHippo posted:Wouldn't it make more sense to bring in a superdelegate system like the Dems have? I think the system the Democratic Party is using this cycle, or something very similar to it, would vest prevent future Trumps and future Ron Pauls. Strict proportional allocation inhibits anyone's ability to take a massively prohibitive lead early on, and also makes that establishment-favored candidates more likely to pull in enough delegates to stay viable. Maybe combine it with high viability thresholds to force no-hoper dropouts early in a crowded field, but that could undermine the previous advantage. Definitely kill WTA and triggered WTA. So, proportional virtually guarantees that someone the establishment likes will remain viable until the convention. Add in a bunch of superdelegates, and the party elite can throw the nomination to the preferred viable candidate. I guess you could get baroque by allowing candidates to endorse another candidate and have that switch all of the endorser's bound delegates to endorsee's bound delegates, but idk if you want to cram all that down state party throats or what.
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Apr 3, 2016 22:49
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Joementum posted:You left out the part where the only way Cruz can become the nominee now is to "steal" it from Trump. do you think this is going to happen? Don't think you've made any sort of prediction since Trump was leading in delegates after ST. What's your convention prediction? I toxxed for it, but I would happily pay  to be wrongedit; pls don't reply with lolnothingmatters.gif
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Apr 3, 2016 22:50
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Dapper_Swindler posted:thats the question. would he pick someone qualified or would he pick some toady nutjob loyalist. trump could go either way. He has said he would like to pick a politician to balance things out a bit but it isn't like you can ever rely on him doing the things he says he will do.
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Apr 3, 2016 22:51
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Fidel Castronaut posted:He has said he would like to pick a politician to balance things out a bit but it isn't like you can ever rely on him doing the things he says he will do. I hope he picks his very good brain
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Apr 3, 2016 22:57
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Slimy Ted. bowser fucked around with this message at 00:05 on Apr 4, 2016 |
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Apr 3, 2016 22:58
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Boosted_C5 posted:History repeats itself. Patriotic resisters must meet in secret and beware the watchful eyes of our socialist oppressors. Hitler's torch is now carried by the Social Justice Warrior Crybullies. 
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Apr 3, 2016 23:07
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Slate Action posted:https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/716738425219469312 Looks like some of the delegates that were elected with Kasich supporters: https://twitter.com/MichaelBiundo/status/716743361558941698 ("senior advisor to John Kasich")
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Apr 3, 2016 23:18
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Dapper_Swindler posted:thats the question. would he pick someone qualified or would he pick some toady nutjob loyalist. trump could go either way. I respect Trump's political savvy too much to think that he'll pick someone as clueless on non-business issues as him. Chris Christie seems to be the obvious choice, for no other reason than he seems to be the only established member of the GOP that isn't openly campaigning against him. Maybe Jeff Sessions? I don't know much about him. Regardless, as I've posted before, the real fun will be seeing someone who is not Donald Trump trying to carry the message of Donald Trump. How can a Chris Christie talk with a straight face about a big beautiful wall with a door in it, or the simultaneous bombing and taking of oil in the Middle East? Picking a super-crazy like Palin or Carson would give a lot of weight to the theory that he's just loving around. tinstaach fucked around with this message at 23:25 on Apr 3, 2016 |
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Apr 3, 2016 23:22
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