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Supercar Gautier
Jun 10, 2006

The media are talking about a potential Trump presidency because (A) media likes the "close horse-race" narrative, and (B) there's this big blindspot where people see momentum within one party and conflate that with momentum among the overall public.

I don't buy the "Everyone said Trump couldn't win the nomination and look what happened, anything is possible!" line. It was always clearly possible that Trump could get the GOP nomination, because the party base is bugnuts and their field was terrible yet again. But with overall favorability numbers as historically low as his, and intense polarization/disillusionment threatening to depress conservative turnout, that's a far cry from even approaching success in November.

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Pillow Hat
Sep 11, 2001

What has been seen cannot be unseen.

Supercar Gautier posted:

The media are talking about a potential Trump presidency because (A) media likes the "close horse-race" narrative, and (B) there's this big blindspot where people see momentum within one party and conflate that with momentum among the overall public.

I don't buy the "Everyone said Trump couldn't win the nomination and look what happened, anything is possible!" line. It was always clearly possible that Trump could get the GOP nomination, because the party base is bugnuts and their field was terrible yet again. But with overall favorability numbers as historically low as his, and intense polarization/disillusionment threatening to depress conservative turnout, that's a far cry from even approaching success in November.

I pretty much agree 100% in reality it's just stressful to think about.

DaveWoo
Aug 14, 2004

Fun Shoe

Supercar Gautier posted:

The media are talking about a potential Trump presidency because (A) media likes the "close horse-race" narrative, and (B) there's this big blindspot where people see momentum within one party and conflate that with momentum among the overall public.

I don't buy the "Everyone said Trump couldn't win the nomination and look what happened, anything is possible!" line. It was always clearly possible that Trump could get the GOP nomination, because the party base is bugnuts and their field was terrible yet again. But with overall favorability numbers as historically low as his, and intense polarization/disillusionment threatening to depress conservative turnout, that's a far cry from even approaching success in November.

I would argue that a Trump presidency is in fact a real possibility, and that you only need to look at the events happening today to see how he could potentially win.

Supercar Gautier
Jun 10, 2006

I have my doubts that Brussels will tilt the election in Trump's favour any more than Benghazi did for Romney.

Krinkle
Feb 9, 2003

Ah do believe Ah've got the vapors...
Ah mean the farts


We live in a horrifying schrodinger's box right now where a Trump presidency is at once impossible and inevitable. God help us I want to be on the future that looks back and says 'well of course he couldn't loving be president. He was Donald loving Trump!"

I still contend that any of the republican nominees that snatched the weave off his head during a debate would have taken his supporters wholesale. It's the most infuriating emperor's new clothes I've ever seen.

Tornhelm
Jul 26, 2008

Supercar Gautier posted:

I have my doubts that Brussels will tilt the election in Trump's favour any more than Benghazi did for Romney.

It might - one was full of brown people and the other is full of white.

Pillow Hat
Sep 11, 2001

What has been seen cannot be unseen.
Only two polls I could easily find on this topic say that Americans trust Hillary more than Drumpf to handle terrorism:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/23/politics/hillary-clinton-tops-donald-trump-terror-poll/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/11/23/poll-as-republicans-ratchet-up-the-rhetoric-clinton-is-most-trusted-on-terrorism/

Veskit
Mar 2, 2005

I love capitalism!! DM me for the best investing advice!
No LWT but we do have this


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNS4lecOaAc

muscles like this!
Jan 17, 2005


HBO has announced that the "Make Donald Drumpf Again" segment has received something like 85 million views on Youtube.

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

muscles like this? posted:

HBO has announced that the "Make Donald Drumpf Again" segment has received something like 85 million views on Youtube.

Too bad they got owned by the SA word filter hard.

nooneofconsequence
Oct 30, 2012

she had tiny Italian boobs.
Well that's my story.

Xoidanor posted:

Too bad they got owned by the SA word filter hard.

We sure showed them. :smug:

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

I thought it was funny. :colbert:

Farmer Crack-Ass
Jan 2, 2001

this is me posting irl

Atomizer posted:

I've been secretly hoping that something like this happens: Trump v. Cruz? v. Hillary... v. Bernie!! That's right, let's say Bernie doesn't get the nomination and also runs as an independent. The election would be pure chaos; no one would get enough votes to win. :eyepop: Ah well, a goon can dream, can't he?

You'd have to have the third (and fourth?!) candidates winning whole states, though, because at the end of the day it's still the Electoral College that matters.

The Trump/Cruz/Hillary threeway would actually be the fantasy outcome, because Trump and Cruz would split the Republican bloc and probably hand Hillary Clinton an EC blowout not seen since Reagan.

Atomizer
Jun 24, 2007



Farmer Crack-rear end posted:

You'd have to have the third (and fourth?!) candidates winning whole states, though, because at the end of the day it's still the Electoral College that matters.

The Trump/Cruz/Hillary threeway would actually be the fantasy outcome, because Trump and Cruz would split the Republican bloc and probably hand Hillary Clinton an EC blowout not seen since Reagan.

It was really just about this angle, though:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNt0anp7WK8

I Am Fowl
Mar 8, 2008

nononononono
The congressional call center sounds positively soul crushing. It's no wonder that Congress has lost touch with their constituents. I'm not entirely sure that they can feel anymore.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Pillow Hat posted:

God drat I hope you're right. I've been saying for a while that Clinton would easily topple Trump but there's a small part in the back of my brain that is getting worried because more and more serious media outlets (like The Economist) are talking about a potential Trump presidency.

Hispanic Permanent Residents are getting their citizenship just to vote against Trump. I wouldn't worry about it.

Krowley
Feb 15, 2008

Baseball segment, and then a piece about boring politicians being miserable (which is a good thing)

A skippable episode

Woebin
Feb 6, 2006

I always enjoy when he does interview segments, so this episode's okay with me. Also looking forward to pictures of the people getting those tickets.

webmeister
Jan 31, 2007

The answer is, mate, because I want to do you slowly. There has to be a bit of sport in this for all of us. In the psychological battle stakes, we are stripped down and ready to go. I want to see those ashen-faced performances; I want more of them. I want to be encouraged. I want to see you squirm.
It's kind of hilarious to find that getting elected to Congress will feel like someone's greatest achievement, only to find that it's actually mostly a lovely telemarketing job.

But yeah I agree this episode was pretty weak overall.

Atomizer
Jun 24, 2007



So if someone is elected with huge margins to a safe seat, I wonder why they'd bother begging for donations at that point. What's preventing them from saying, "gently caress the party dues, I've got this poo poo locked down." What is the party going to kick out a hugely popular representative and force them to be an independent, and then try to run a new party candidate against someone who wins 80% of the vote?

At this point I'm realizing why Sanders is independent, and that he's been so lucky to probably largely avoid this fundraising nonsense.

Echo Chamber
Oct 16, 2008

best username/post combo
They can punish the congressman by not giving them committee positions and also kill the pork running into their district. They can also refuse any bills or amendments they might sponsor.

There's a lot of ways to exercise party discipline.

PassTheRemote
Mar 15, 2007

Number 6 holds The Village record in Duck Hunt.

The first one to kill :laugh: wins.
If someone was rich enough to finance their own campaign, could they just pay the party dues out of their own pocket and then be like "I'm good, and just show up for free food, and miss the call center?

Nostalgia4Butts
Jun 1, 2006

WHERE MY HOSE DRINKERS AT

PassTheRemote posted:

If someone was rich enough to finance their own campaign, could they just pay the party dues out of their own pocket and then be like "I'm good, and just show up for free food, and miss the call center?

do you think trump sits in a call center

Atomizer
Jun 24, 2007



Echo Chamber posted:

They can punish the congressman by not giving them committee positions and also kill the pork running into their district. They can also refuse any bills or amendments they might sponsor.

There's a lot of ways to exercise party discipline.

I hate to bring him up again, but it appears Bernie Sanders has done pretty well for himself without being beholden to party bosses.

Nostalgia4Butts posted:

do you think trump sits in a call center

Of course not, but Trump isn't a politician. He's not even a Republican. :ssh:

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Atomizer posted:

So if someone is elected with huge margins to a safe seat, I wonder why they'd bother begging for donations at that point. What's preventing them from saying, "gently caress the party dues, I've got this poo poo locked down." What is the party going to kick out a hugely popular representative and force them to be an independent, and then try to run a new party candidate against someone who wins 80% of the vote?

Generally speaking, they get 80% of the vote because their district is so stacked with same party voters that the only actual race is the primary. If they haven't been fundraising then there's a decent chance the Party could simply fund a replacement candidate if they wanted to. There's more ways to coerce candidates than just running someone else in the primary though.

Atomizer posted:

I hate to bring him up again, but it appears Bernie Sanders has done pretty well for himself without being beholden to party bosses.

The senate is usually close enough of a split that pissing all over an independent who caucuses with you is not a great idea. Democrats need Sanders and King on their side more than they need some extra donations from their theoretical Democratic replacements.

Alec Bald Snatch
Sep 12, 2012

by exmarx

Echo Chamber posted:

They can punish the congressman by not giving them committee positions and also kill the pork running into their district. They can also refuse any bills or amendments they might sponsor.

There's a lot of ways to exercise party discipline.

Yeah being an effective fundraiser for the party house/senate hill committee is a surefire way to make sure you get your way in congress. And also lots of institutional support should your ambitions be a little higher.

The Cheshire Cat
Jun 10, 2008

Fun Shoe

Gyges posted:

Generally speaking, they get 80% of the vote because their district is so stacked with same party voters that the only actual race is the primary. If they haven't been fundraising then there's a decent chance the Party could simply fund a replacement candidate if they wanted to. There's more ways to coerce candidates than just running someone else in the primary though.

Yeah for congressional races most people just vote for the party, not the candidate. So someone who wants to run as an independent will just end up having to do all that fundraising they were trying to avoid if they want to have any hope of beating their former party in the next election, and at that point it's better to just stick with the party.

Echo Chamber
Oct 16, 2008

best username/post combo
Also when it comes to Bernie Sanders, for most of his career he did run against a Democrat and a Republican in the general election. He only really started cooperating with Vermont Democrats to avoid the spoiler effect in the 2000s. So his independence in Congress is bit more than a fiction. I highly doubt the Democratic caucus would tolerate a lot more lawmakers who wanted some of the benefits, but none of the obligations, of caucusing with the party.

Sen. Angus King I think is similar. He's always been an independent, so the Democrats in the senate are lucky enough that he's merely caucusing with them.

Atomizer
Jun 24, 2007



To be fair, the independents are few in number and are the exception rather than the rule. I think we've stumbled upon the real point though: raising funds, even if you don't need to, is worth it for the career advancement via pleasing the rest of the party.

sbaldrick
Jul 19, 2006
Driven by Hate
Both King and Sanders are in tiny states with easy media markets. You couldn't win say even Alabama with party backing.

Alaska also has a Independent Senator who was thrown from the party but most people aren't party of a 3 generation political dynasty.

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

sbaldrick posted:

Both King and Sanders are in tiny states with easy media markets. You couldn't win say even Alabama with party backing.

Alaska also has a Independent Senator who was thrown from the party but most people aren't party of a 3 generation political dynasty.

Murkowski is still a Republican, she just won via write in.

jumba
Sep 6, 2004

Hang in there!
Fun Shoe

Woebin posted:

I always enjoy when he does interview segments, so this episode's okay with me. Also looking forward to pictures of the people getting those tickets.

Ninja Turtles for the first game!

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/15140645/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-get-premium-seats-new-york-yankees-game

Snowglobe of Doom
Mar 30, 2012

sucks to be right
There was a weird grab bag of entries to the #IHaveNeverSatInAPremiumLocation competition, a good chunk of them just posted photos of themselves without any sort of costume, a bunch more didn't even bother with photos and posted descriptions of clothes they owned andsome people just tweeted the days they were available to attend matches. But there was also a bunch of wacky costumes and one guy wearing dead octopi.

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23IHaveNeverSatInAPremiumLocation

Grinning Goblin
Oct 11, 2004

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver: HBO's Jon Stewart

coyo7e
Aug 23, 2007

by zen death robot

Mr. Fowl posted:

The congressional call center sounds positively soul crushing. It's no wonder that Congress has lost touch with their constituents. I'm not entirely sure that they can feel anymore.
This is a great point because working in a call center really is a terrible, soul-crushing job and I wouldn't be surprised if it did actually make congresspeople a lot more cynical and hateful to their constituency.

I worked in one for like six months and ended up having to quit because I was grinding my teeth and. motherfucking. swearing. at. every. digit. on. every. number. as. I dialed them - then I'd wipe it off and put on my best rear end-kissing voice and hate myself and the supervisor listening in on my calls and the person who picked up and wasted 45 minutes of all our lives answering questions about their school's server OSes and rack-mounted hardware appliances - because they were literally the school janitor and considered themselves in charge of the switches in a wiring closet because that's where they kept their cleaning supplies but they sure did want that 100 bucks for finishing the survey.. Meanwhile I knew they weren't a valid respondee but couldn't break from script or cut off the call because I'd be reprimanded.

Christ what a terrible job, and there were so many absolute loons working there like the woman who brought in a cart loaded with stuffed animals and pictures of jesus and a big fluffy blanket every day and decorated whatever cubicle she was sent to with them.

Don't ever work in a call center.

coyo7e fucked around with this message at 13:23 on Apr 11, 2016

Echo Chamber
Oct 16, 2008

best username/post combo
http://www.equifacks.com/
http://www.experianne.com/
http://www.tramsonion.com/

Humbug Scoolbus
Apr 25, 2008

The scarlet letter was her passport into regions where other women dared not tread. Shame, Despair, Solitude! These had been her teachers, stern and wild ones, and they had made her strong, but taught her much amiss.
Clapping Larry

"We Are Not Associated With Transunion. We Are Not Monsters."

SlothfulCobra
Mar 27, 2011

I'm surprised they didn't give a mention to the free credit report scams in that rundown. Those commercials have catchy tunes. I never thought about the credit reporting companies advertising to employers before though.

I was disappointed that TramsOnion didn't sell onions that had been squashed by trams.

Dragonrah
Aug 22, 2003

J.C. Bearington, III

coyo7e posted:

Christ what a terrible job, and there were so many absolute loons working there like the woman who brought in a cart loaded with stuffed animals and pictures of jesus and a big fluffy blanket every day and decorated whatever cubicle she was sent to with them.

I don't know man, that sounds fairly rational. If I had to do that I'd want to do anything to try to mask the sadness.

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Sereri
Sep 30, 2008

awwwrigami

SlothfulCobra posted:

I was disappointed that TramsOnion didn't sell onions that had been squashed by trams.

Should've gone with Trans-union to be honest, a union for transsexuals or something.

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