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The media are talking about a potential Trump presidency because (A) media likes the "close horse-race" narrative, and (B) there's this big blindspot where people see momentum within one party and conflate that with momentum among the overall public. I don't buy the "Everyone said Trump couldn't win the nomination and look what happened, anything is possible!" line. It was always clearly possible that Trump could get the GOP nomination, because the party base is bugnuts and their field was terrible yet again. But with overall favorability numbers as historically low as his, and intense polarization/disillusionment threatening to depress conservative turnout, that's a far cry from even approaching success in November.
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Mar 22, 2016 18:53
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Supercar Gautier posted:The media are talking about a potential Trump presidency because (A) media likes the "close horse-race" narrative, and (B) there's this big blindspot where people see momentum within one party and conflate that with momentum among the overall public. I pretty much agree 100% in reality it's just stressful to think about.
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Mar 22, 2016 19:47
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Supercar Gautier posted:The media are talking about a potential Trump presidency because (A) media likes the "close horse-race" narrative, and (B) there's this big blindspot where people see momentum within one party and conflate that with momentum among the overall public. I would argue that a Trump presidency is in fact a real possibility, and that you only need to look at the events happening today to see how he could potentially win.
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Mar 22, 2016 20:09
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I have my doubts that Brussels will tilt the election in Trump's favour any more than Benghazi did for Romney.
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Mar 22, 2016 20:14
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We live in a horrifying schrodinger's box right now where a Trump presidency is at once impossible and inevitable. God help us I want to be on the future that looks back and says 'well of course he couldn't loving be president. He was Donald loving Trump!" I still contend that any of the republican nominees that snatched the weave off his head during a debate would have taken his supporters wholesale. It's the most infuriating emperor's new clothes I've ever seen.
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Mar 22, 2016 22:07
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Supercar Gautier posted:I have my doubts that Brussels will tilt the election in Trump's favour any more than Benghazi did for Romney. It might - one was full of brown people and the other is full of white.
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Mar 22, 2016 22:38
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Only two polls I could easily find on this topic say that Americans trust Hillary more than Drumpf to handle terrorism: http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/23/politics/hillary-clinton-tops-donald-trump-terror-poll/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/11/23/poll-as-republicans-ratchet-up-the-rhetoric-clinton-is-most-trusted-on-terrorism/
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Mar 23, 2016 02:52
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No LWT but we do have this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNS4lecOaAc
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Mar 28, 2016 05:21
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HBO has announced that the "Make Donald Drumpf Again" segment has received something like 85 million views on Youtube.
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Apr 1, 2016 13:12
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muscles like this? posted:HBO has announced that the "Make Donald Drumpf Again" segment has received something like 85 million views on Youtube. Too bad they got owned by the SA word filter hard.
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Apr 1, 2016 13:37
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Xoidanor posted:Too bad they got owned by the SA word filter hard. We sure showed them. 
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Apr 1, 2016 13:55
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I thought it was funny. 
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Apr 1, 2016 14:11
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Atomizer posted:I've been secretly hoping that something like this happens: Trump v. Cruz? v. Hillary... v. Bernie!! That's right, let's say Bernie doesn't get the nomination and also runs as an independent. The election would be pure chaos; no one would get enough votes to win. You'd have to have the third (and fourth?!) candidates winning whole states, though, because at the end of the day it's still the Electoral College that matters. The Trump/Cruz/Hillary threeway would actually be the fantasy outcome, because Trump and Cruz would split the Republican bloc and probably hand Hillary Clinton an EC blowout not seen since Reagan.
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Apr 1, 2016 15:42
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Ah well, a goon can dream, can't he?
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Farmer Crack-rear end posted:You'd have to have the third (and fourth?!) candidates winning whole states, though, because at the end of the day it's still the Electoral College that matters. It was really just about this angle, though: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNt0anp7WK8
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Apr 2, 2016 08:16
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The congressional call center sounds positively soul crushing. It's no wonder that Congress has lost touch with their constituents. I'm not entirely sure that they can feel anymore.
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Apr 4, 2016 06:39
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Pillow Hat posted:God drat I hope you're right. I've been saying for a while that Clinton would easily topple Trump but there's a small part in the back of my brain that is getting worried because more and more serious media outlets (like The Economist) are talking about a potential Trump presidency. Hispanic Permanent Residents are getting their citizenship just to vote against Trump. I wouldn't worry about it.
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Apr 4, 2016 07:20
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Baseball segment, and then a piece about boring politicians being miserable (which is a good thing) A skippable episode
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Apr 4, 2016 11:24
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I always enjoy when he does interview segments, so this episode's okay with me. Also looking forward to pictures of the people getting those tickets.
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Apr 4, 2016 13:29
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It's kind of hilarious to find that getting elected to Congress will feel like someone's greatest achievement, only to find that it's actually mostly a lovely telemarketing job. But yeah I agree this episode was pretty weak overall.
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Apr 4, 2016 14:45
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So if someone is elected with huge margins to a safe seat, I wonder why they'd bother begging for donations at that point. What's preventing them from saying, "gently caress the party dues, I've got this poo poo locked down." What is the party going to kick out a hugely popular representative and force them to be an independent, and then try to run a new party candidate against someone who wins 80% of the vote? At this point I'm realizing why Sanders is independent, and that he's been so lucky to probably largely avoid this fundraising nonsense.
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Apr 4, 2016 18:23
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They can punish the congressman by not giving them committee positions and also kill the pork running into their district. They can also refuse any bills or amendments they might sponsor. There's a lot of ways to exercise party discipline.
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Apr 4, 2016 19:06
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If someone was rich enough to finance their own campaign, could they just pay the party dues out of their own pocket and then be like "I'm good, and just show up for free food, and miss the call center?
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Apr 4, 2016 19:10
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wins.
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PassTheRemote posted:If someone was rich enough to finance their own campaign, could they just pay the party dues out of their own pocket and then be like "I'm good, and just show up for free food, and miss the call center? do you think trump sits in a call center
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Apr 4, 2016 19:13
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Echo Chamber posted:They can punish the congressman by not giving them committee positions and also kill the pork running into their district. They can also refuse any bills or amendments they might sponsor. I hate to bring him up again, but it appears Bernie Sanders has done pretty well for himself without being beholden to party bosses. Nostalgia4Butts posted:do you think trump sits in a call center Of course not, but Trump isn't a politician. He's not even a Republican. 
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Apr 4, 2016 19:44
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Atomizer posted:So if someone is elected with huge margins to a safe seat, I wonder why they'd bother begging for donations at that point. What's preventing them from saying, "gently caress the party dues, I've got this poo poo locked down." What is the party going to kick out a hugely popular representative and force them to be an independent, and then try to run a new party candidate against someone who wins 80% of the vote? Generally speaking, they get 80% of the vote because their district is so stacked with same party voters that the only actual race is the primary. If they haven't been fundraising then there's a decent chance the Party could simply fund a replacement candidate if they wanted to. There's more ways to coerce candidates than just running someone else in the primary though. Atomizer posted:I hate to bring him up again, but it appears Bernie Sanders has done pretty well for himself without being beholden to party bosses. The senate is usually close enough of a split that pissing all over an independent who caucuses with you is not a great idea. Democrats need Sanders and King on their side more than they need some extra donations from their theoretical Democratic replacements.
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Apr 4, 2016 21:00
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Echo Chamber posted:They can punish the congressman by not giving them committee positions and also kill the pork running into their district. They can also refuse any bills or amendments they might sponsor. Yeah being an effective fundraiser for the party house/senate hill committee is a surefire way to make sure you get your way in congress. And also lots of institutional support should your ambitions be a little higher.
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Apr 4, 2016 23:36
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Gyges posted:Generally speaking, they get 80% of the vote because their district is so stacked with same party voters that the only actual race is the primary. If they haven't been fundraising then there's a decent chance the Party could simply fund a replacement candidate if they wanted to. There's more ways to coerce candidates than just running someone else in the primary though. Yeah for congressional races most people just vote for the party, not the candidate. So someone who wants to run as an independent will just end up having to do all that fundraising they were trying to avoid if they want to have any hope of beating their former party in the next election, and at that point it's better to just stick with the party.
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Apr 4, 2016 23:38
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Also when it comes to Bernie Sanders, for most of his career he did run against a Democrat and a Republican in the general election. He only really started cooperating with Vermont Democrats to avoid the spoiler effect in the 2000s. So his independence in Congress is bit more than a fiction. I highly doubt the Democratic caucus would tolerate a lot more lawmakers who wanted some of the benefits, but none of the obligations, of caucusing with the party. Sen. Angus King I think is similar. He's always been an independent, so the Democrats in the senate are lucky enough that he's merely caucusing with them.
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Apr 5, 2016 00:03
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To be fair, the independents are few in number and are the exception rather than the rule. I think we've stumbled upon the real point though: raising funds, even if you don't need to, is worth it for the career advancement via pleasing the rest of the party.
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Apr 5, 2016 00:30
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Both King and Sanders are in tiny states with easy media markets. You couldn't win say even Alabama with party backing. Alaska also has a Independent Senator who was thrown from the party but most people aren't party of a 3 generation political dynasty.
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Apr 5, 2016 02:01
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sbaldrick posted:Both King and Sanders are in tiny states with easy media markets. You couldn't win say even Alabama with party backing. Murkowski is still a Republican, she just won via write in.
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Apr 5, 2016 02:50
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Woebin posted:I always enjoy when he does interview segments, so this episode's okay with me. Also looking forward to pictures of the people getting those tickets. Ninja Turtles for the first game! http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/15140645/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-get-premium-seats-new-york-yankees-game
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Apr 5, 2016 21:20
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There was a weird grab bag of entries to the #IHaveNeverSatInAPremiumLocation competition, a good chunk of them just posted photos of themselves without any sort of costume, a bunch more didn't even bother with photos and posted descriptions of clothes they owned andsome people just tweeted the days they were available to attend matches. But there was also a bunch of wacky costumes and one guy wearing dead octopi. https://twitter.com/search?q=%23IHaveNeverSatInAPremiumLocation
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Apr 6, 2016 03:29
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Last Week Tonight with John Oliver: HBO's Jon Stewart
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Apr 11, 2016 06:35
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Mr. Fowl posted:The congressional call center sounds positively soul crushing. It's no wonder that Congress has lost touch with their constituents. I'm not entirely sure that they can feel anymore. I worked in one for like six months and ended up having to quit because I was grinding my teeth and. motherfucking. swearing. at. every. digit. on. every. number. as. I dialed them - then I'd wipe it off and put on my best rear end-kissing voice and hate myself and the supervisor listening in on my calls and the person who picked up and wasted 45 minutes of all our lives answering questions about their school's server OSes and rack-mounted hardware appliances - because they were literally the school janitor and considered themselves in charge of the switches in a wiring closet because that's where they kept their cleaning supplies but they sure did want that 100 bucks for finishing the survey.. Meanwhile I knew they weren't a valid respondee but couldn't break from script or cut off the call because I'd be reprimanded. Christ what a terrible job, and there were so many absolute loons working there like the woman who brought in a cart loaded with stuffed animals and pictures of jesus and a big fluffy blanket every day and decorated whatever cubicle she was sent to with them. Don't ever work in a call center. coyo7e fucked around with this message at 13:23 on Apr 11, 2016 |
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Apr 11, 2016 11:02
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http://www.equifacks.com/ http://www.experianne.com/ http://www.tramsonion.com/
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Apr 11, 2016 15:27
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Echo Chamber posted:http://www.equifacks.com/ "We Are Not Associated With Transunion. We Are Not Monsters."
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Apr 11, 2016 15:55
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I'm surprised they didn't give a mention to the free credit report scams in that rundown. Those commercials have catchy tunes. I never thought about the credit reporting companies advertising to employers before though. I was disappointed that TramsOnion didn't sell onions that had been squashed by trams.
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Apr 11, 2016 16:06
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coyo7e posted:Christ what a terrible job, and there were so many absolute loons working there like the woman who brought in a cart loaded with stuffed animals and pictures of jesus and a big fluffy blanket every day and decorated whatever cubicle she was sent to with them. I don't know man, that sounds fairly rational. If I had to do that I'd want to do anything to try to mask the sadness.
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Apr 11, 2016 16:48
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SlothfulCobra posted:I was disappointed that TramsOnion didn't sell onions that had been squashed by trams. Should've gone with Trans-union to be honest, a union for transsexuals or something.
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Apr 11, 2016 17:03
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