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Its all slightly ridiculous really. Everyone knew a month ago it was either going to be an FG minority gov with FF support or an FG/FF coalition. They've just wasted a month already, and no doubt more time to come, to confirm this for themselves.
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Apr 7, 2016 13:02
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kustomkarkommando posted:I'm assuming full coalition with Martin as Táiniste (I would doubt FG have softened on rotating Taoiseach stuff but you never know) I look forward to Martin standing behind Enda rolling his eyes and making the wanking gesture.
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Apr 7, 2016 13:09
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They could still go for a rotating arrangement I guess if full coalition does happen. I think everyone is expecting Enda to be away before the next election at this rate with Leo getting the promotion to leader - if he resigns from being the Taoiseach FF could kick up a fuss about trying to slot Leo in and letting them have a bash (and taking some of the wind out of their sails pre-election by giving them the top spot) might work out okay. Alternatively Kenny could stay on as Taoiseach and Leo just becomes party leader which could work. I would be surprised if Kenny remains FG leader for another 4 years
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Apr 7, 2016 13:20
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No coalition thenquote:The Fianna Fáil leader has told the acting Taoiseach he cannot go into Government with Fine Gael. http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/enda-kenny-and-micheal-martin-meeting-lasts-less-than-15-minutes-after-ff-reject-fg-deal-728565.html
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Apr 7, 2016 18:09
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Came here just to post that. Looks like we are getting another GE after all?
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Apr 7, 2016 18:10
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Cabinet posted:Came here just to post that. Looks like we are getting another GE after all? I think FG may be won over to the idea of a minority government. They say its a no go but I think they might just be pretending tbh
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Apr 7, 2016 18:16
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What does that mean exactly? That there'll be more independents than FG people in the government? It is me I am the problem in Irish politics.
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Apr 7, 2016 18:18
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EmmyOk posted:What does that mean exactly? That there'll be more independents than FG people in the government? It is me I am the problem in Irish politics. Basically FG will form a government without having a majority in the Dail which means they will be reliant on FF support for key votes - FG previously did the same for the last FF minority government in 1987 with what was called the Tallaght Strategy. FF will demand certain reforms to strengthen the day to day power of the opposition to put forward motions and set the business of parliament, as well as some policy commitments from FG, and in exchange they will keep an FG government in power (for as long as is convenient probably). FG have said they don't like the idea because of the "instability" it offers, basically puts them over a barrel and makes every no confidence motion much more serious and probably means the next government isn't going to run its full term
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Apr 7, 2016 18:25
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EmmyOk posted:What does that mean exactly? That there'll be more independents than FG people in the government? It is me I am the problem in Irish politics. Nah, just that there will be one or two of them propping up FG. From the votes yesterday it seems that not a lot of Independents want to go in with FG because they know how toxic they are. Hell, I bet most of them were voted in on promises that they would not work with FG. [Source: my rear end] I wasn't sold on the fact Enda would have to step down as Taoiseach and/or as party leader when the GE hit but jesus there is no way he escapes this without losing at least one, is there? The fact this is taking so goddamn long just adds to it.
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Apr 7, 2016 18:27
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Cabinet posted:Came here just to post that. Looks like we are getting another GE after all? Would another GE benefit either of them. I would think another election would just dilute the vote more but I also don't think any other party would be able pick up the numbers to lead.
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Apr 7, 2016 20:24
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I feel as if FF think another GE would help them. They can easily position themselves as "FG can't even form a stable government" even if they themselves are the reason FG can't form a government. It's damned if they force another GE and damned if they don't. At least this way FF have a chance of gaining more seats.
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Apr 7, 2016 20:54
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Talks about a minority government are underway between FF/FG, as I thought FG's distaste for the idea may have been a bit of play acting. FG apparently want a signed agreement from FF to stop them from pulling the rug out from under them which might hold them back for a while. Interesting little snippet floated up on the The Week in Politics today as well:The Journal posted:Speaking on the same programme veteran FF TD and senator Martin Mansergh, who played a key role in the Northern Ireland peace process and in coalition negotiations for the party, said the prospect of a strong rebuke from the President may have prompted the fresh talks. It's interesting because no President has ever formally rejected a request from an acting Taoiseach to dissolve the Dail, Mary Robinson came close to it back when Reynolds resigned but indicated her opinion to him and he stopped short from calling for fresh elections in order to stop the formal rebuke. Considering how the office of the President is generally pretty meek and depoliticized the prospect of Higgins using the opportunity to step in and exercise his powers under the constitution to beef the role up to something slightly more comparable to other European ceremonial presidents is something that neither of the two big parties wants. Even Higgins calling a joint session of Oireachtas to upbraid them about the necessity to form a government would be a stinging intervention that would upset the status quo - the power to address a joint session has only been exercised four times in the past (Once by De Valera in 69 to mark the 50th anniversary of the First Dail, twice by Robinson following the Maastricht referendum in '92 and the 150th anniversary of the Famine in 1995, and once by McAleese in '99 to mark the millennium). He would be well within his powers to do it but trying to position himself as an overseer to government formation (which the President has no role in) would be heavily resisted by all parties. Or alternatively insert joke here about how no one wants to listen to two hours of Higgins poetry
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Apr 10, 2016 16:30
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Would the agreement actually stop FF from pulling the rug as soon as they smelled blood? I really think it'll hold as well as wet paper when it comes down to it. I cannot imagine Higgins out of any president from doing anything like that. It does not fit in with how he has handled the presidency so far.
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Apr 10, 2016 18:35
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Cabinet posted:Would the agreement actually stop FF from pulling the rug as soon as they smelled blood? I really think it'll hold as well as wet paper when it comes down to it. I imagine they could break an agreement if they wanted but "broken promises" going into an election might not be the greatest thing for them Cabinet posted:I cannot imagine Higgins out of any president from doing anything like that. It does not fit in with how he has handled the presidency so far. I dunno he has been very outspoken for a President and has dipped his toe much further into the political waters than a lot of his predecessors - he's pushed at the edges of what is politically acceptable for a President to say by speaking out against the ECB,questioning tax cuts,commenting on the need for an inquiry on the Savita Halappanavar case (which was a hot potato at the time) and openly criticized the government's asylum seeker policy. He's always refered to his presidency as one of "ideas" and has focused on ethics in government a lot - he was ruffled more than a few feathers with some of his interventions but the government largely gets on with him which is why they have never formally complained about his comments. I could definitely see him laying into FF/FG about their ethical responsibility to put aside their egos and work for the good of the country kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 19:09 on Apr 10, 2016 |
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Apr 10, 2016 19:07
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http://m.rte.ie/news/2016/0412/781165-luas-dublin-dispute/quote:Luas operator Transdev has placed all staff on protective notice with immediate effect and has warned of pay deductions to offset the cost of their industrial action. Guess this is going to an all out strike then
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Apr 12, 2016 18:06
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kustomkarkommando posted:http://m.rte.ie/news/2016/0412/781165-luas-dublin-dispute/ As someone who doesn't rely on the Luas for their commute I have to say I find this whole Mexican stand-off fascinating. I don't agree at all with the vitriol directed at the Luas drivers - How DARE they strike! For better working conditions! Scum! They earn as much as junior doctors (which surely begs the point why are junior doctors so underpaid, not how overpaid are Luas drivers...)! - but they do seem to have been on reasonably high wages to begin with. I can't see them winning this battle as Transdev start playing hardball.
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Apr 13, 2016 00:20
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Enda has been voted down again. FG minority government is seeming less likely by the day. https://twitter.com/TJ_Politics/status/720629750247649280
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Apr 14, 2016 16:16
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As this is the third failed vote with very little change between voting patterns, at what point do they call it off and say no taoiseach can be elected. And what happens then?
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Apr 14, 2016 16:57
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Coin toss
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Apr 14, 2016 16:59
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Everything I've seen would point towards another election. But Paddypower still has no second election this year as the most likely outcome. quote:Will There Be A 2nd General Election in 2016? And an FG Minority government being the most likely one in place on January 1st 2017: quote:Government On 1st January 2017 (decimal odds) I know the bookies are generally regarded as being more reliable than polls these days, so this is quite interesting. Are FF just being needlessly difficult before they eventually give in and support an FG minority?
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Apr 14, 2016 18:19
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FF haven't managed to swing a single independent - Kenny hasn't exactly been reeling them in but he picked up Zappone in this vote and Lowry before that. They just need to give up the line that they can form a minority government now, I know Martin is only hammering away at it to appease the grassroots and maybe build up some good will to prevent a future heave if any FG deal goes sour but this is taking the piss now.
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Apr 14, 2016 18:39
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Have there been any polls done lately? I'm wondering how this is impacting FF and FG. Can hardly be good for either of them.
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Apr 14, 2016 20:03
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Cabinet posted:Have there been any polls done lately? I'm wondering how this is impacting FF and FG. Can hardly be good for either of them. FF are supposedly showing an increase in support in some small scale internal polls they've carried out. Which is probably why they're persisting with this will-they, won't-they month long debacle. God knows why the electorate would observe the last month and decide what the country needs is more of FF/FG, but there you have it. If another election happened tomorrow predictions are independents would lose out to FF/FG due to A) independents having no election budget and B) FF/FG playing the "if you don't vote for us we'll never have a stable government" card. Despite the only reason we don't currently have a government being FF/FG intransigence.
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Apr 14, 2016 20:46
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FF now saying they have abandoned leading a minority government - spokesman for the party saying that Martin will not put his name forward next week for Taoiseach. Some vague mumbling that FF where given private support from some independents who did not come forward and vote in their favour when it came crunch time. Might be reaching the end game now
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Apr 14, 2016 22:54
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What is the criteria for a new election then? Who or how does it get triggered?
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Apr 14, 2016 23:13
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I think only the sitting government or the president can call a new election. So it would be up to Enda as caretaker to call a new election if no leader can be elected. Or Higgans can step in as president to force a call. That's my understanding anyway I may be misinformed.
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Apr 14, 2016 23:23
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julian assflange posted:What is the criteria for a new election then? Who or how does it get triggered? There's no maximum time limit to how long this can go on. For a new election Kenny just has to go to the President and ask for one - Higgins can refuse but that would be a pretty big deal and pull things into uncharted waters. There's really no precedent or much law in regards to what would happen then, a lot of people have been thinking there might be some gentle rolling to a more continental model of having the President appoint an informateur, basically rope in some retired politcio to oversee coalition building and act as middle man. Really there's an expectation that the parties can negotiate a solution themselves, the last couple of times there was apparent deadlock on forming a government (1989 and 92-93) it got sorted out by the parties without having to explore the Presidential angle (which they probably preferred). This is the longest formation period now though, '92 had the previous record at 42 days but that was over December and the Christmas holidays. We're on what, 48 days now?
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Apr 14, 2016 23:38
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When I was watching last night's Primetime I learned about FF's demand that a minority government must contain 58 members, 50 Fine Gael + 8 others, probably Labour + Zappone I guess. No discussion on policy. Pretty loving sneaky, as the parliamentary math would mean that the opposition minus FF would be 57. There would be no possibility of anyone other than FF bringing down the government, barring defections. In effect, such a minority government could in theory make every non-FF opposition TD's vote worth nothing. But of course the narrative was already being crafted live on air that it's all the Independents fault, and that we have to vote for the bigger parties.
School Nickname fucked around with this message at 22:22 on Apr 15, 2016 |
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Apr 15, 2016 17:50
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Jesus Christ Labourquote:THE LABOUR PARTY could potentially go back into government with Fine Gael. http://www.thejournal.ie/alex-white-labour-fine-gael-2718839-Apr2016/ Surely another coalition couldn't get past a conference, I would have thought even supporting an FG minority would be toxic enough - why say these things...
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Apr 16, 2016 16:43
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Labour want to die as a party I suppose.
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Apr 16, 2016 16:49
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I saw a die-hard FG supporter blame the electorate voting for Independents as the problem. He was saying Kenny should call another election so the voters will do the smart thing and vote for stability. I guess another election so soon would push out some Independents on the basis they wouldn't have the funds to campaign again so soon. But he must be living in a fantasy if he thinks another election will sweep FG into a majority. I've said it before but I believe another election would just spread out the vote more. I can't seeing it resolving the issue of no easy majority and we'll be back in the same point with FG and FF the only ones able to do anything.
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Apr 16, 2016 17:41
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I hope for Labour's sake they don't go back into government with FG, they'll be wiped out in the next election if they do. If they agreed to abstain in votes of confidence (along with FF) though it would help bring down FG's required number of TDs to govern to 54, that might be a good compromise. 50 FG + Zappatone + Lowry + 2 others INDs (or the Greens possibly?) would reduce the required level of pork a little at least. Speaking of pork; in somewhat unsurprising but disappointing news it looks like the independents are all channeling their inner Healy-Rae and trying to get ridiculous demands met in exchange for their support: quote:Independents hold nation to €13bn ransom. Astonishing 'pork-barrel' list of demands exposed - http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/independents-hold-nation-to-13bn-ransom-34633806.html Also disappointingly, those previously mentioned internal FF polls have been confirmed by a public Sunday Times Poll: quote:FF - 26% (+4) I'd love to know whos opinion of FF has improved in the past month.... I guess all the fearmongering about "vote for us for stability" is working in their favour.
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Apr 17, 2016 13:58
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There's a deal in the works: http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/state-to-take-over-irish-water-in-fine-gael-fianna-f%C3%A1il-deal-1.2618233 quote:Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have agreed the outline of a deal on Irish Water that should allow a minority government to be put in place next week. Abandoning the plan of trying to keep Irish Water an arms length semi-state utility isn't massively surprising tbh considering it failed Eurostat's market corporation test last year
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Apr 21, 2016 08:35
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Some rocky developments on the old government formation front as it seems the temporary suspension of water charges has become a sticking pointRTE posted:Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have released a joint statement saying that engagement is to continue over the weekend on outstanding issues with direct negotiations between both parties resuming on Monday. The Indo has gone a bit more apocalyptic: sindo posted:The country now faces another general election after talks between Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny and Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin collapsed yesterday in bitter acrimony over water charges.
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Apr 24, 2016 20:14
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I will never not laugh at FF suddenly being against water charges when they were the first ones who wanted to introduce them under Cowen. Now they are suddenly the champions of the water movement. Bullshit.
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Apr 24, 2016 20:21
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Cabinet posted:I will never not laugh at FF suddenly being against water charges when they were the first ones who wanted to introduce them under Cowen. Now they are suddenly the champions of the water movement. Bullshit. If the polls are to be believed though their intransigence is winning them support. After a new election they'll probably be the biggest party in the country again... We won't have even managed to make it a decade out from the crash before an FF recovery.
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Apr 24, 2016 20:38
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We'll never escape FF's clammy clutches.
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Apr 24, 2016 20:41
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Cabinet posted:We'll never escape FF's clammy clutches. Perhaps in death
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Apr 24, 2016 21:44
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Sinn Fein are ending their policy of TDs drawing only the average industrial wage from their salaries. Apparently they aren't too impressed with having to struggle the way that people on the average industrial wage are accustomed to. The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
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Apr 24, 2016 22:18
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It's been so long I can't remember the order of my voting slip. Dumb question but can candidates who weren't In the first election present themselves for the next one (if it happens)?
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Apr 24, 2016 22:19
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