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Hmm the Yes market on NY MoV is going up, wonder if I should dump and take my profit.
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Apr 19, 2016 18:58
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jisforjosh posted:Hmm the Yes market on NY MoV is going up, wonder if I should dump and take my profit. got in at 30 yesterday, and i'm currently in the same boat. i'm at least gonna wait until the provisional ballot ruling that should be out shortly. dunno if people trust Pedigo anymore, but he's forecasting 19+ Hillary. Surprised me mainly bc he's usually very bullish on Bernie (thought he was gonna win AZ for chrissakes) but he might be overcompensating after being off in WY by a huge amount.
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Apr 19, 2016 19:02
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CornflakeS.Pecially posted:got in at 30 yesterday, and i'm currently in the same boat. i'm at least gonna wait until the provisional ballot ruling that should be out shortly. I bought in at 31,I don't have that much money in it so it's an amount I'm comfortable losing, but why lose if you can come out ahead?
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Apr 19, 2016 19:06
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CornflakeS.Pecially posted:got in at 30 yesterday, and i'm currently in the same boat. i'm at least gonna wait until the provisional ballot ruling that should be out shortly. Benchmark Politics (who is decent at this stuff) predicts +14.
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Apr 19, 2016 19:22
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The +15 market is frightening. Should be some brutal swings as they count votes tonight.
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Apr 19, 2016 19:34
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I bought all of these one night when people talked about them in irc
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Apr 19, 2016 19:46
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a cop posted:I bought all of these one night when people talked about them in irc gently caress I need to start hanging out in IRC you assholes understand some of us can't hang out there all the time and need to remember to pass this stuff on to us in the thread, right?
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Apr 19, 2016 19:49
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a cop posted:I bought all of these one night when people talked about them in irc Ugh I paid 90c for my NY Bernie Noes.
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Apr 19, 2016 20:47
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Necc0 posted:gently caress I need to start hanging out in IRC Given how much money a cop lost in the early part of the primary season, those buys now are really just karma balancing the scales.
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Apr 19, 2016 20:59
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They're really gonna delay the final count aren't they? This is gonna be MO all over again 
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Apr 19, 2016 21:21
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CNN saying they'll be taking a look at first exit polls at the top of the hour. so by top of the hour expect it to be a little past that and by exit polls I mean we get to find out how many r voters are Angry and how many d voters want to Continue Obama's Policies
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Apr 19, 2016 21:45
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Necc0 posted:They're really gonna delay the final count aren't they? This is gonna be MO all over again Probably not unless it's real close
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Apr 19, 2016 21:49
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Daniel Bryan posted:Probably not unless it's real close The MOV market could be that way...
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Apr 19, 2016 22:05
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https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/722535724063596545
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Apr 19, 2016 22:50
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gently caress!
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Apr 19, 2016 22:57
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e_angst posted:Given how much money a cop lost in the early part of the primary season, those buys now are really just karma balancing the scales. Yeah even if all of those pay out $1 a share I'll still be down 200 overall lol. Better than 800 though!!
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Apr 19, 2016 23:21
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Back in Kasich 2nd No. Let's open the drat bloodgates.
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Apr 19, 2016 23:52
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Vox Nihili posted:Back in Kasich 2nd No. Let's open the drat bloodgates. Hell yeah, I'm ridin or dyin on that one (only have 50 shares but still)
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Apr 20, 2016 00:01
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What's the IRC channel again? Doesn't look like its in the op.
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Apr 20, 2016 01:13
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Vox Nihili posted:Back in Kasich 2nd No. Let's open the drat bloodgates. This is available for 12c now if anyone else wants to hop on the "probably gonna lose money" psychotrain.
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Apr 20, 2016 01:33
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Ah man I was hoping my 99c Hillary Yes/Bernie No would sell fast. Hope this isn't too long a night.
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Apr 20, 2016 02:19
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It's a good day to own trump shares. Talked to arkane this weekend about my 1237 delegate shares but I'm up four hundred bucks today from those, probably gonna take my profit on those tomorrow morning.
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Apr 20, 2016 02:20
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Oh hell yeah, I bought 100 shares of MOV YES at 24c and now they're at 65c.
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Apr 20, 2016 02:32
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a cop posted:Oh hell yeah, I bought 100 shares of MOV YES at 24c and now they're at 65c. I'm trying to figure out if I should hold or not
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Apr 20, 2016 02:33
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The North Tower posted:I'm trying to figure out if I should hold or not Yeah same. MSNBC has her with a 22 point lead with 32% in. I'm buying more at 50c expecting it to trend upwards for at least a bit.
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Apr 20, 2016 02:37
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a cop posted:Yeah same. MSNBC has her with a 22 point lead with 32% in. I'm buying more at 50c expecting it to trend upwards for at least a bit. 1591 shares averaged at 51c for me...this is the first time I've had to actually decide how greedy I should be on this site.
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Apr 20, 2016 02:38
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The North Tower posted:1591 shares averaged at 51c for me...this is the first time I've had to actually decide how greedy I should be on this site. Nice. I'd say sell enough around 70-80 to hedge it so you for sure break even if it flips. Or, gently caress it, let it ride if you can handle the losses. Looking good so far. The margin has dropped from 22% to 21% with the vote going from 30 to 40%. Going to be crazy close if that trend holds- though I've not been watching the precincts that have been dumping votes.
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Apr 20, 2016 02:41
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a cop posted:Nice. I'd say sell enough around 70-80 to hedge it so you for sure break even if it flips. Or, gently caress it, let it ride if you can handle the losses. Looking good so far. The margin has dropped from 22% to 21% with the vote going from 30 to 40%. Going to be crazy close if that trend holds- though I've not been watching the precincts that have been dumping votes. Kicking myself for not going all in at 20-something cents when ~15% of the vote was in, but I haven't seen it go below my average since I decided to pull the trigger.
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Apr 20, 2016 02:46
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 http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...pe=sectionfront I'm doing some modest flipping but given how slow the site is, I'm mostly just aggregating some cheap NOs - a few outfits predicting 12-14% margins (NYT Upshot @ 12%, Benchmark @ 14% note this could backfire horribly obviously and I'm already net down in this market so I'm probably on tilt but I think prices in the 30s are still too low
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Apr 20, 2016 02:48
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Well I sold all my shares of MoV yes at 60 cents, forgot I had set a sell offer there. Fingers crossed that the race tightens so I don't feel like I lost out on potential profits.
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Apr 20, 2016 02:53
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jisforjosh posted:Well I sold all my shares of MoV yes at 60 cents, forgot I had set a sell offer there. Fingers crossed that the race tightens so I don't feel like I lost out on potential profits. The best profits are the ones you keep. I did the same
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Apr 20, 2016 02:58
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MOV is still a clusterfuck.
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Apr 20, 2016 03:02
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Sold 100 shares of Bernie NO to play the MOV flips. Trying to decide where to land. I think this could end up going YES. Nassau County and lots of downstate NY haven't reported yet, and that will MORE than cancel out upstate votes. Some of those upstate counties have hundreds or thousand of votes. Downstate is another couple orders of magnitude.
SHINEBLOCKA has issued a correction as of 03:07 on Apr 20, 2016 |
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Apr 20, 2016 03:04
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watwat posted:The best profits are the ones you keep. I did the same Very true, never let greed overcome logic
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Apr 20, 2016 03:10
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sr9_GfeoCjk
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Apr 20, 2016 03:14
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Hoping to cover my losses today with Yes MOV.
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Apr 20, 2016 03:17
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SHINEBLOCKA posted:Sold 100 shares of Bernie NO to play the MOV flips. Trying to decide where to land. I think this could end up going YES. Nassau County and lots of downstate NY haven't reported yet, and that will MORE than cancel out upstate votes. Some of those upstate counties have hundreds or thousand of votes. Downstate is another couple orders of magnitude. same, I flipped, this market is great. I've never lived in NY, who lives in Nassau? Hillary up by 8 in Suffolk paints a good picture
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Apr 20, 2016 03:17
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jisforjosh posted:Well I sold all my shares of MoV yes at 60 cents, forgot I had set a sell offer there. Fingers crossed that the race tightens so I don't feel like I lost out on potential profits. At the end of the day never regret ending up. Someone said it way earlier in this thread but never measure yourself in how much you *could* have made in hindsight. Down that path lies madness.
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Apr 20, 2016 03:23
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I just got hosed so hard in the NY DEM primary market. Voting Trump in the general out of spite.
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Apr 20, 2016 03:40
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I retract my statement about MOV. I've been flipping and watching counties and I believe it'll resolve NO.
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Apr 20, 2016 03:44
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