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Fidel Castronaut posted:$100 in each state gets you this many shares, at current prices: Also, his odds in Maryland and Pennsylvania are approaching 0%. 1c is probably a fair price...
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Apr 21, 2016 22:45
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Peachstapler posted:August through October we will only have polls to bet on. bill passages, appointments. legislative things, international elections
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Apr 21, 2016 22:46
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Abel Wingnut posted:bill passages, appointments. legislative things, international elections Fingers crossed for the yuuuugest debate novelty questions.
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Apr 21, 2016 22:47
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The Joe Man posted:Yeah, other than RI the payout on each is $1k+. Godspeed, goon.
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Apr 21, 2016 23:13
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RE: Bernie April drop out. He's running a lot of ads in Indiana, so only buy if you're planning on a Tuesday flip.
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Apr 22, 2016 00:16
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Daniel Bryan posted:RE: Bernie April drop out. He's running a lot of ads in Indiana, so only buy if you're planning on a Tuesday flip. He probably won't drop out, but I doubt he would be winding down his campaign before the April 26 primaries even if they really do plan to reassess as the one campaign guy mentioned. Other candidates kept their operations pretty much in full gear and denied any intent to drop out until the day of.
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Apr 22, 2016 01:43
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I think the Jeb campaign signaled that it'd be closing up depending on an upcoming primary as well. It's that similarity that convinced me to buy a dropout lottery ticket. To be honest if that market spikes after Tuesday I'm gonna have a hard time not bailing out.
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Apr 22, 2016 02:31
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After falling below my initial deposit level at one point, my gain/loss is above +2000 for the first time today. My total gain is actually only about $500 but I'm feeling like I'm right back in this.
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Apr 22, 2016 07:56
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don't bet on polls That said, if somebody wants an opportunity... Congressional Approval @ 14.5%/+ on April 22nd is 85 Y / 15 N. The number is, at this moment on RCP's average, exactly 14.5. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/congressional_job_approval-903.html#polls IF a new poll comes out TODAY - *and* RCP updates in time, which is not always guaranteed apparently going by the comments ... - it will probably knock it under 14.5. There is also an old (3/17-3/20) Monmouth poll included showing Congressional approval @ 19. If this is dropped for any reason... Again, don't bet on polls. I have no idea if any Congressional Approval Polls are coming out today, if that 19 will be dropped, if any polls that do come out today will show even higher than 15, or whatever. But could be an opportunity here if you know polls well I guess/feel like a gamble?
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Apr 22, 2016 16:23
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based on that, i'm in for $10
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Apr 22, 2016 16:31
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Abel Wingnut posted:based on that, i'm in for $10 you fool!! But yes. If the 19 is dropped with no replacement, it'll be NO. If the 19 is dropped and replaced with an 18 or less, it'll be NO. If the 19 stays but a new poll is out with 13 or less it'll be NO. (all assuming my math is correct) Obviously no new poll / no drop resolves YES, and it could be 14 or higher, but has trending a little more downward.  Good luck!
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Apr 22, 2016 16:50
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stay safe polling ghost
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Apr 22, 2016 18:27
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Adar posted:This is the first time since the day before Rubio died on stage that Trump is massively overvalued and it will only get better for the next ten days. When I said this I wasn't expecting Trump to be polling ahead in IN before 4/26 It's probably still a good idea to load up on Cruz but the risk averse crew should do it on the day after IN instead.
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Apr 22, 2016 18:54
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Trump's gonna do it. The convention will not be contested.
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Apr 22, 2016 18:56
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People are forgetting. The idea that you win the nomination if you have 1237 delegates is also one of the rules that can be changed before any voting starts. If he makes it to 53%, the Cruz-loving delegates on the voting committee can absolutely make the requirement 55% of the vote.
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Apr 22, 2016 19:20
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pathetic little tramp posted:People are forgetting. The idea that you win the nomination if you have 1237 delegates is also one of the rules that can be changed before any voting starts. The language on the brokered convention contract on PredictIt may be a little ambiguous: quote:No individual shall secure a majority of delegates' votes in the first official ballot for presidential nominee at the 2016 Republican National Convention, resulting in at least one additional round of balloting. A majority of delegates' votes in the first official ballot is going to be 1237. If Trump has more than 1237 but it still goes to a second vote, I think the contract will still resolve to NO. Still, betting YES on 1237+ delegates for Trump is cheaper than betting NO on contested convention and is probably a better bet.
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Apr 22, 2016 19:28
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pathetic little tramp posted:People are forgetting. The idea that you win the nomination if you have 1237 delegates is also one of the rules that can be changed before any voting starts. That's beyond the nuclear option and into the realm of ESPN "if these fourteen teams all make a trade" territory.
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Apr 22, 2016 19:32
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Gotta decide what to do with my 2000 shares of "1200-1236 delegates." Sell with the Tuesday spike or hold and hope for chaos?
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Apr 22, 2016 20:04
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Sell. At this point if he wins Indiana they should drop, not spike, and the window for them to hit is narrowing. .
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Apr 22, 2016 20:20
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Local news here in Indiana just dropped a poll with Trump +6 and Clinton +2 No details on Pence yet but they said they're still getting those results together. Pence will poll about as well as Cruz if I had to guess so if Pence NO is cheap it may be worth a look
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Apr 22, 2016 20:28
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C7ty1 posted:you fool!! For Monmouth to get dropped wouldn't a new Monmouth poll have to be introduced? I don't see any Monmouth polls ever having dropped on a Friday. We don't even know what time RCP updates their averages, either.
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Apr 22, 2016 20:31
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e_angst posted:For Monmouth to get dropped wouldn't a new Monmouth poll have to be introduced? I don't see any Monmouth polls ever having dropped on a Friday. We don't even know what time RCP updates their averages, either. Man, I have no idea how the RCP works in that regards, which is one of the reasons I don't bet on polls!!! I think you might be correct, but I thought we've seen instances of older dated polls dropping as well.
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Apr 22, 2016 20:36
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There's no way they change the 1237 rule. What they would possibly change is the unbinding of state delegates. Just unbinding or DQing South Carolina would do the trick. I doubt if more than 10 out of 50 is a Trump supporter.
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Apr 22, 2016 20:43
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I think the only actually Trump-loyal delegates are the ones his campaign actually got to choose, which are a minority.
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Apr 22, 2016 20:45
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Epic High Five posted:Local news here in Indiana just dropped a poll with Trump +6 and Clinton +2 That's real close for Trump. Cruz could make up that margin but it'll be close. If you're ahead with "< 1237 delegate" shares the safe play is to dump now.
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Apr 22, 2016 21:00
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It's also worth noting that Indiana has strong laws that make polling difficult so representative samples may be very hard for polls to get. I'm sure EHF knows more than I about the laws, though.
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Apr 22, 2016 21:05
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pathetic little tramp posted:If he makes it to 53%, the Cruz-loving delegates on the voting committee can absolutely make the requirement 55% of the vote. 
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Apr 22, 2016 21:25
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Fidel Castronaut posted:It's also worth noting that Indiana has strong laws that make polling difficult so representative samples may be very hard for polls to get. I'm sure EHF knows more than I about the laws, though. Yeah an automated poll is against the law so it has to be an actual human doing the calling. Much more expensive and time consuming which is why there's less polling.
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Apr 22, 2016 21:27
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Arkane posted:There's no way they change the 1237 rule. I read an article where it was literally 49 that were anti-Trump and the 1 other guy said he'd only vote for Trump if he was sure Trump would in. I think it was Politico.
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Apr 22, 2016 21:39
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Unbinding all the delegates is straight up as crazy and riot-inducing as changing 1237. No matter how much they all personally hate Trump I still think they have to be drawing the line at party destruction. If they change the rules *after* 1237 they do flat out destroy the party. Unbinding one state/territory depends on how far the Cruz-ites think they can push things. I don't think they could get a South Carolina DQ without a game over. Getting the Virgin Islands DQd could easily be done, though, because there's a pretext. So something in between those two. Problem is only the Virgin Islands have a pretext right now.
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Apr 22, 2016 21:56
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I wrote a comment in the delegate count market and B3 crashed from 25 all the way to 7 for a moment. People are really drat jumpy.
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Apr 22, 2016 22:30
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Aren't literally all the Virgin Islands delegates already uncommitted?
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Apr 22, 2016 22:31
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Annnd new Fox polls just hit, too. The delegate count market is a flaming wreck.
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Apr 22, 2016 23:20
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oh so that's why the 1237 yes market jumped. damnit i was trying to buy some at 48
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Apr 22, 2016 23:22
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man i bought into brokered.no when it was just above 50 and held strong when it plummeted but i didn't have the resolve to buy more either. i'll have to settle with knowing that i was on the right side before the market did 
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Apr 22, 2016 23:36
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point of return posted:Aren't literally all the Virgin Islands delegates already uncommitted? The Yob slate is. The other slate has 1 Trump, 1 Cruz IIRC. More importantly, the Yob slate is so clearly up for sale (I mean the other one is too but it's not as blatant) that getting rid of them is something Cruz has to do if it's that close.
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Apr 23, 2016 00:15
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Fidel Castronaut posted:It's also worth noting that Indiana has strong laws that make polling difficult so representative samples may be very hard for polls to get. I'm sure EHF knows more than I about the laws, though. I don't know too much about polling laws other than it's pretty rare to get polled here, usually because we're too late to mean anything and everybody assumes we're a red state lock for some reason. I think Trump YES goes up after he sweeps Tuesday so it's not a bad idea. I'm mostly interested in the Pence/Gregg polling results getting released
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Apr 23, 2016 00:15
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I assume most of you are maxed out in Hillary For Pres at 66 or lower. I can't believe it's that low, honestly.
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Apr 23, 2016 06:44
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skaboomizzy posted:I assume most of you are maxed out in Hillary For Pres at 66 or lower. I can't believe it's that low, honestly. Not a great deal unless you have unlimited funds. Gonna sit for a long time.
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Apr 23, 2016 07:29
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Glad I bought Trump +20 in CT when it dipped. Tuesday is going to be a bloodbath.
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Apr 23, 2016 13:50
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