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Imaduck posted:Basically, everybody needs to play poker. This is my new gambling strategy (now that I've taken a bit of baths with double-deck). Also, I'm thinking about changing my reservation to the Hard Rock because it has a poker room. How far is that from the Strip, and can I pull the ol' $20/$30 trick and upgrade from a regular king to a HRH Tower Suite there?
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Apr 23, 2016 04:59
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I hear the rooms are really nice at the Hard Rock. It's not on the strip, but it's not too far; about a 10 minute walk. I hit the poker room there about a year ago. It was really nice, but there were no players. After sitting around for a few hours, I managed to get a 4 handed 1/3 game going, which eventually just turned into heads up. I don't know if the action has gotten better, but given the fact that it's off the strip, I doubt it. You're not a far walk from Planet Hollywood though, and they have a great poker room that's always hopping.
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Apr 23, 2016 05:52
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Imaduck posted:Given the number of decks most casinos use nowadays, the potential edge in blackjack is not very big. On top of that, casinos actively try to root out advantage blackjack players. The difference in odds between 4, 5 and 6 decks is very small. .06, .03, .02. Using shuffle machines kills counting, and those are getting more common, maybe thats what you meant? But there is plenty of winnable blackjack around. I do love a double deck game with good rules, sure. But six decks works ok too - when the count is good early, it can stay good for a long time..... http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/basics/#toc-RuleVariations I happened to run into one of the mit blackjack guys at a very popular casino not that long ago. He wasn't disguised, and he was counting, so the casinos aren't that pressed about it as long as you aren't hitting them for crazy amounts (team play or at least really high stakes). Imaduck posted:Video poker is only beatable with certain, very specific payouts that are very hard, if not impossible to find nowadays. Most of the games aren't beatable. They are still around though... Imaduck posted:Limit Heads Up Poker is a solved game, so by definition it's not beatable. They did release those games before the game was officially claimed to be solved, but I suspect they either had solved it already and not published the result, or were so close to solving it that any potential edge would be minuscule. The machine in question doesn't have the same neural net as the university one, which relied on a pretty big cluster, and I don't see that they published any of their training conditions to duplicate that particular net. And it appears the creators of the vegas machine have dumbed their net down a bit so it doesn't absolutely crush ordinary people. Specialists were beating it over a pretty large number of hands, unless they were lying. EV of $60/hour or whatever is probably not a good draw for those guys though. Imaduck posted:Games where you only compete against other players can be raked while still being fair, so I think they're a great place to start. The key is finding games that have a good balance of luck and skill, lucky enough where amateurs can win relatively regularly, but skill-based enough where skilled players have a long term edge and can beat the rake. Would be cool if I didn't have to travel a long ways to get a good game. Maybe someday.
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Apr 23, 2016 07:38
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Baddog posted:The difference in odds between 4, 5 and 6 decks is very small. .06, .03, .02. Using shuffle machines kills counting, and those are getting more common, maybe thats what you meant? But there is plenty of winnable blackjack around. I do love a double deck game with good rules, sure. But six decks works ok too - when the count is good early, it can stay good for a long time..... EDIT: These numbers are just for non-advantaged play though, where the effects of more cards are relatively minor. Card counting is entirely about knowing how many of a given card are left. Knowing 1 out of 4 aces is dead is a huge advantage. Knowing 1 out of 24 are dead, not so much, especially when they use cut cards and are going to reshuffle fairly often. quote:They are still around though... quote:The machine in question doesn't have the same neural net as the university one, which relied on a pretty big cluster, and I don't see that they published any of their training conditions to duplicate that particular net. quote:And it appears the creators of the vegas machine have dumbed their net down a bit so it doesn't absolutely crush ordinary people. quote:Specialists were beating it over a pretty large number of hands, unless they were lying. EV of $60/hour or whatever is probably not a good draw for those guys though. Most of the time I walk by those machines and they're empty, even when the casino is packed. I've yet to see anything that looks like a reg grinding it out on one of those machines. Imaduck fucked around with this message at 16:51 on Apr 23, 2016 |
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Apr 23, 2016 16:39
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Imaduck posted:
The edge usually isn't in the machine itself, it's in beating overly generous promotions. Relatively few people make a living off of it, but a lot more get high roller perks while having a small player edge.
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Apr 23, 2016 17:01
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Imaduck posted:The way they present those odds are, well, odd (it's the difference in the edges that actually matter, the way they've presented them). You can see the effect more clearly in his edge counter: http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/calculator/ It depends on your rules variations, but going from 1->2 decks and 2->4 decks often doubles the house edge, and can easily turn a positive player edge into a negative one. You're right though, 4->6 isn't so big, but at that point your edge is pretty small. And yeah, clearly you can't count against a shuffle machine. Knowing 6 of 24 aces are dead and you have 3 decks still to go is huge. And you don't have to use anything approaching a complete count to get an advantage. Here, he has a pretty simple one which gives an advantage on the common 6 deck strip game, and penetration there is fairly standardized. http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/17/ Its a loving grind to count solo for rent money, you aren't gonna get rich. Team play is where the big money is at, but then you have to deal with other assholes. Imaduck posted:Different groups were getting closer and closer to solving the games for years; the methodologies are out there. Typically this type of algorithm will take a very large amount of CPU power to train, but significantly less to actually execute, especially if you go the extra mile and shave out complexity that gives you very little gain. There's enough money in it that a company would happily lock 5 PhDs in a room and give them far more resources than they'd have in academia to spit out some winning models. I'm not sure you know much about neural nets at all  "shaving out complexity"? That isn't really material though, because the vegas machine is definitely good enough. Here is an article though where the creators talk about gimping their net.http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/08/magazine/poker-computer.html Imaduck posted:30BB/hr is a huge win rate to claim in limit, heads-up poker. Granted, they can play a lot more hands against a bot per hour, but I still find that incredibly hard to believe, as it'd be a considerable edge against a human player, let alone a bot. So yeah, I'm skeptical of their claims; there's a lot of variance of poker, and a significant sample size to make a claim like that would be in the 50k+ hand range. If they've got the logs to prove it, I'd love to see them. It plays up to 10/20, at least in vegas, so thats 3BB/hr on a machine that you can crank a lot of hands on quickly. There is a guy in the NYT article, or you can read the threads on 2+2. Yes I know there is a lot of variance in poker, I used to grind super turbos on FTP! And I already said that I think the seats are empty now because people figured out the edge is so small that they can make a lot more money doing something else, especially since the casinos stopped giving comps for play on them.
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Apr 23, 2016 18:30
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It warms my blackened, degenerate heart that the Las Vegas thread is finally discussing gambling and not nightclubs with bottle service. 
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Apr 23, 2016 20:40
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Baddog posted:I'm not sure you know much about neural nets at all quote:That isn't really material though, because the vegas machine is definitely good enough. Here is an article though where the creators talk about gimping their net quote:It plays up to 10/20, at least in vegas, so thats 3BB/hr on a machine that you can crank a lot of hands on quickly. quote:There is a guy in the NYT article, or you can read the threads on 2+2. Yes I know there is a lot of variance in poker, I used to grind super turbos on FTP! And I already said that I think the seats are empty now because people figured out the edge is so small that they can make a lot more money doing something else, especially since the casinos stopped giving comps for play on them.
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Apr 24, 2016 08:24
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Imaduck posted:That article makes it pretty clear that the programmers think their machine is unbeatable by humans, and I'm inclined to believe them. It sounds like they have a random "let the wookie win" thing that kicks in in certain situations, but the programmers make it clear that they think it is a winning machine against all players, even with these foils. Are you confusing the programmers in the ny times article with the backer and the casino guy? I also like that the only poker pro named was matusow, who is pretty bad. Everyone else was a competitive bridge player, or unnamed right? I don't think you can gimp the net so that all of these conditions are met a) the number of nodes is collapsed by an amount to make a difference, b) the net is modified to make mistakes bad enough to be seen by an average player in a given play session and c) is still 'unbeatable' by ANYONE in the long term. Especially when the published best result isn't strongly solved, what people would normally term "unbeatable". The bar is just very very high, the published net can still be expected to beat a *perfectly* exploitative opponent 1 out of 20 times over a very long period, which is really loving good. But when you start making those compromises, the bar comes down fast. The fact that they removed comps from the machine pretty quickly shows that it wasn't as strong as they thought, and *plenty* of people could at least get the edge close to flipping. Obviously I'm not recommending anyone play it. It seems like you have to be at the very top of the HU limit holdem game (and who the gently caress plays that) to grind out a relatively small amount. So lets summarize 1) Blackjack is still very beatable. The number of decks (after 2) doesn't really matter as long as they aren't using a shuffler or cutting off more than half the decks. And if you're going to play, learning an easy count is a good way to get free rooms and food in vegas (if you can handle swings on the order of 5k a session) 2) There are indeed video poker "pros" although its a pretty lovely "occupation" mostly dependent on comps. 3) Don't play the headsup limit holdem machine, because you are probably not a HU LHE savant. The neural net in that machine is not the "unbeatable" one, but who knows how close it is (and it might even be as good or better, if everyone who says they can beat it is lying) 4) It would be nice if there were more skill games you could win real money at, preferably fun ones and not "grab a card faster than everyone else" games 5) Imaduck is very cocky. Which unfortunately is a common trait for even semi-serious poker players. He's right, the 2+2 forums are full of lying shithead degenerates and its hard to figure out whats true in any given thread. Which is why losing PITR sucked.
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Apr 24, 2016 19:44
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MrChupon posted:It warms my blackened, degenerate heart that the Las Vegas thread is finally discussing gambling and not nightclubs with bottle service. This is bad for my business... 
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Apr 24, 2016 20:11
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Baddog posted:4) It would be nice if there were more skill games you could win real money at, preferably fun ones and not "grab a card faster than everyone else" games Well, there is this: https://www.gamersaloon.com/ And actually, Grab Poker looks like there could be some significant strategy to it. Suppose you start with two cards of one suit or close in rank, and a card comes which would pair one of them. Should you take it, or try to go for a flush/straight? Under what circumstances, if any, should you take a card useless to your hand to keep someone else from getting it?
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Apr 24, 2016 21:09
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Boola posted:I've gone to Lotus of Siam a few times for lunch. Just showed up early before noon without reservation and no problem / no wait. It's Vegas. If someone in thread where to mention it took too long to get their Burger King Whopper, I'm sure someone would chime in that they "know a guy" who will get you ahead. Baddog posted:Its a loving grind to count solo for rent money, you aren't gonna get rich. Team play is where the big money is at, but then you have to deal with other assholes. Exactly. One player sits at the table, bets the minimum, signals to their buddy the count is good and they throw down hardcore. It's not the 1980s anymore, rules have changed lowering a players odds and variance high. The MIT Blackteam nearly fell apart because of how huge the swings were but managed. I ran into a few guys whom actually successfully accomplished this in North, South Dakota but gaming commission sent their photos to all the casinos and they're banned from playing.
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Apr 24, 2016 21:26
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quote:The number of decks (after 2) doesn't really matter as long as they aren't using a shuffler or cutting off more than half the decks. I'm having trouble finding good information on how much the number of decks affects counting strategy, so I'd have to simulate it to know for sure. But you're right, it may not be as big a factor as I supposed. You're right that there exist a few games that, under the right conditions, may be "beatable," but their rarity, how tiny the edges are, and how aggressively Vegas is pushing against letting them be beatable by changing rules and payout tables is a pretty good indication that they're not super open to letting some new beatable games anytime soon. I'll stop bickering over details, because this was my main point Baddog posted:the 2+2 forums are full of lying shithead degenerates and its hard to figure out whats true in any given thread.
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Apr 25, 2016 01:29
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The vast majority of people are bullshiting, but there are some qualified mathematicians doing this kind of work, and they have shown that some games are beatable under certain conditions. Two of the better bloggers in this area are Eliot Jacobson and Michael Shackleford.
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Apr 25, 2016 02:32
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JaySB posted:This is bad for my business... Gambling is a waste. I know it's how Vegas thrives but if I'm going there I'd rather throw my money at women and booze...possibly shows...and racing cars...
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Apr 25, 2016 09:38
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Imaduck posted:Folks claim they could beat craps and roulette for fucks sake. But...but...if I take 90 seconds to get my hold on the dice just right and slow the table way down then I can influence the dice to show a number that makes my incredibly complex betting system full of center table bets a wild success! 
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Apr 25, 2016 13:16
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Gatts posted:Gambling is a waste. I know it's how Vegas thrives but if I'm going there I'd rather throw my money at women and booze...possibly shows...and racing cars... To make an actual conversation of this, I'm curious Jay -- I get that gambling more or less distracts from your core business, and any real hardcore gambler is probably getting hooked up through hosts rather than through you. Given the decline of gambling in Vegas (at least as a percentage of total revenue -- my understanding is that gambling drops every year in % relation to dining/clubs/entertainment), do you think it's even necessary there anymore to attract the people who are your core business? I.e. if you were hypothetically dropped into Ibiza or South Beach or some other world-class party town, and we assumed you had the same level of connections, could you do just as good business?
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Apr 25, 2016 17:20
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I'm not sure how strong the correlation is between gaming and nightlife. I have million dollar casino players that I help set up with clubs still though and when I first started out, most of the people I took care of were poker players I met on the tables. But without knowing financial numbers, I'd say there is certainly a trend that Vegas is moving in the direction of entertainment and away from gaming. So, in that regard, my core clientele is going to be the same. But at the same time, if a guy wins big at the tables and wants to go out and celebrate that also helps nightlife. If you hypothetically dropped current me into another city with the same level of connections, I think that I could do just as well. It's all essentially the same when you look at it as a destination.
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Apr 25, 2016 21:06
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Jay, do you still have the same website? I looked through the thread but the link I found was a redirect somewhere else and it was acting funny on my work pc/network. I'll check it out later when I'm at home. I'll contact you at some point to get some info for Oct 7-9. I make an annual trip with some friends for the LA Kings game and this year is the first time it'll be at the new arena. We've been amateurs with all of our planning/booking the past few years and I want to step it up a bit this time.
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Apr 25, 2016 23:12
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Teeter posted:Jay, do you still have the same website? I looked through the thread but the link I found was a redirect somewhere else and it was acting funny on my work pc/network. I'll check it out later when I'm at home. Yeah there was some weird issue with the redirect. I had to clear my cache to get it to work. If it's still not working properly next time you go to the site let me know and I'll yell at IT again. Happy to help with whatever you need.
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Apr 26, 2016 02:40
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Jay, Your site was being weird for me too. Once you get the email (that whole process was a little off-putting), none of the contact or filter links worked at all. I also got one bad redirect through a couple of different searches. Luckily I was able to reply to the email, and some person from some other company replied? Jay, I would like to book with you, but the whole experience of going to the site and then getting some lists and then having to email for any questions or changes was a little weird, especially now how it looks like I am dealing with a third party hotel booking site.
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May 2, 2016 15:34
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In addition to Thai Thursday at Lotus of Siam, I'd also like to take my wife out to a show. It's hard for me to tell what's good, or even to know what's playing this Thursday and Friday 5/5-6) It looks like most of the Cirque shows we'd want to see don't perform those nights, "O" is really expensive, and "Zumanity" is the only other one. Everything else looks like tribute acts, lame magic shows, musicals, and also Blue Man Group whom I've never seen and am neutral about. Anyone seen Zumanity? My wife is not opposed to seeing hot man-on-man action in principle, but it's all about the execution.
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May 2, 2016 16:11
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Have you considered Absinthe?
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May 2, 2016 16:24
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Oh, that looks pretty cool. They appear to have dinner packages as well, though I get the sense the best way to get tickets is probably at the half-price booths scattered around town. I'll have to check with the missus and re-evaluate.
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May 2, 2016 16:46
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I highly recommend Absinthe. The performances are very impressive, yet they don't take themselves too seriously, so it's a lot of fun. And, it's a super small theater, so every seat is good. And yeah, the half price ticket booths seem to have the best deals you can get without a lot of hassle.
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May 2, 2016 17:10
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Ultimate Mango posted:Jay, My site is part of a network. Book or don't book. I have a full customer service team involved with the company that handles any and all problems. Absinthe is the best show in Vegas, MJ and Love are next.
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May 2, 2016 21:31
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Absinthe was the best show I saw in Vegas. I loved it. Hilarious, entertaining, great feats of featiness.
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May 3, 2016 02:03
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All right, I am sold! Think we need to book in advance for a Friday show, or will the half-price booths be able to hook us up?
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May 3, 2016 02:57
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According to their website they have tix 75-100% of the time.
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May 3, 2016 03:05
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Yeah I saw that, seems encouraging. The two Cirque shows are probably doable too, so I think we'll be okay. Worst case we just go see Civil War! 
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May 3, 2016 03:08
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What are the best sushi places on the strip? The company I'm working for now, the head honchos love sushi. We went to Shibuya the other night and I thought it was good, not great. (And hideously overpriced, but I wasn't paying so whatever)
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May 3, 2016 03:15
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coronaball posted:What are the best sushi places on the strip? The company I'm working for now, the head honchos love sushi. We went to Shibuya the other night and I thought it was good, not great. (And hideously overpriced, but I wasn't paying so whatever) Uhhh. On strip is going to be expensive. Nobu, Blue Ribbon, Yellowtail, and Mizumi probably best.
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May 3, 2016 12:16
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Yeah I knew it was gonna be expensive, but not "triple the price of a good sushi restaurant in SF" expensive. But again, not my money. Thanks for the recommendations.
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May 3, 2016 20:08
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coronaball posted:Yeah I knew it was gonna be expensive, but not "triple the price of a good sushi restaurant in SF" expensive. But again, not my money. Thanks for the recommendations. If you can convince them to step off strip there are some amazing places that are very reasonably priced. Sen Of Japan, Kabuto, Yui, Yonaka for example. I think Blue Ribbon is my favorite on strip, the sushi is really pricey but really good, however their cooked dishes are out of this world amazing. Fried chicken, short ribs, and the oxtail fried rice
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May 3, 2016 21:00
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JaySB posted:My site is part of a network. Book or don't book. I have a full customer service team involved with the company that handles any and all problems. Rates were great, just wanted to make sure I was dealing with your people and not someone who hijacked your site. The process was just different from anything else I've seen, and I wanted to check that it was legit, and I am glad it is. Seconding Blue Ribbon, good sushi. It everything else puts it over the top. Is Cosmo still worth the premium? I haven't been in a year. Cosmo at $300 for a balcony still seems like a better deal than $200 for Aria somehow.
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May 4, 2016 06:25
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Ultimate Mango posted:Rates were great, just wanted to make sure I was dealing with your people and not someone who hijacked your site. The process was just different from anything else I've seen, and I wanted to check that it was legit, and I am glad it is. Everything is legit. Any problems or concerns let me know. And yes I think Cosmo is still worth the premium. That view is tits, and their restaurants are great and the crowd there is good. Aria is pretty nice though. Carbone has edged its way into my top 10 restaurants in Vegas for sure. Cosmo is certainly better if you're younger and looking for a party crowd.
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May 4, 2016 13:55
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I leave for Vegas tomorrow at noon for a 15 person bachelor party and come home Monday, here goes nothing. We are staying at the Cosmo and have a Wraparound Terrace Suite and 4 double queen City Rooms. -Thursday night dinner at STK -Friday Encore Beach Club cabana -Friday night Hakkasan VIP Bar card for everyone -Saturday free day for recovering and gambling -Saturday night table at XS -Sunday recovery day and Marquee pool Only three of us are staying Sunday night to relax and recover while the rest take the redye home probably feeling like death.
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May 4, 2016 20:29
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Is Brooklyn Bowl like a nightclub or more of a straight music venue? I'm seeing a show there at the end of the month - am I going to be ok with general admission tickets?
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May 5, 2016 08:56
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Bobalbmi posted:Is Brooklyn Bowl like a nightclub or more of a straight music venue? I'm seeing a show there at the end of the month - am I going to be ok with general admission tickets? More of a music venue. With a bowling alley and a restaurant. You'll be fine with GA tix for sure
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May 5, 2016 17:19
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Some friends and I are going to Vegas the first week of August. I am sure I will have lots of questions, but any recommendations for hotels with really good pools downtown or strip? A lot of our time will probably be spent at the pool so this seems like a good place to start. Look at a mid range place most likely staying Tuesday through Saturday.
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May 8, 2016 19:37
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