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Freakazoid_ posted:If a state is willing to remove civil rights, they probably won't mind removing state funded education. It could still be a threat but I can see it not really being a threat. At that point, how do the feds escalate? The UNC system generates an insane amount of wealth for NC. Without federal funding for education the entire UNC system is hosed, which means among other things that college basketball is hosed, and I doubt NC would let that happen.
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May 5, 2016 03:28
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TheQat posted:looks like the first anti-trump ad from clinton is out:  Trump has my vote because this is comedy gold.
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May 5, 2016 03:40
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Republican shopper openly chastizes food stamp recipient at Wal-Mart Heres a fun video and article to make your blood boil.
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May 5, 2016 03:49
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Pharohman777 posted:I can see hillary having to really struggle against her own history in this election. What does any of that have to do with demographics? Trump is going to get slaughtered because women loving hate him. He'll do worse with whites than Romney.
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May 5, 2016 03:53
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Grand Theft Autobot posted:What does any of that have to do with demographics? Oh my god. For the last loving time. STOP ASSUMING THE POLLS NOW WILL REFLECT WHAT HAPPENS IN THE FUTURE. Every political expert acknowledges that polls narrow during a general. Stop acting like they won't.
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May 5, 2016 03:54
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Grand Theft Autobot posted:What does any of that have to do with demographics? But Trump is a Republican left-wing socially liberal populist vulgarian. Hillary has never faced such a creature!
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May 5, 2016 03:55
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Torpor posted:But Trump is a Republican left-wing socially liberal populist vulgarian. Hillary has never faced such a creature! She has not faced a candidate resembling Trump, that is true.
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May 5, 2016 03:57
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CelestialScribe posted:Oh my god. For the last loving time. Yeah dude Trump hasn't even begun his assault on Hillary. Itll be ruthless. Relentless. Trump rallies will start offering aprons and rubber gloves to women attendees. You think you know misogyny? You haven't seen Trump misogyny.
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May 5, 2016 04:10
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a shameful boehner posted:Forget James O'Queefe and Matt Daleiden, I can't wait for Matt Walsh to stroke out after the coronation. "Watch what happens when I dress up as a woman at the RNC!" e: gently caress that's Crowder isn't it I can't keep my shitheels straight
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May 5, 2016 04:13
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CelestialScribe posted:Oh my god. For the last loving time. If the fear that polls will change in the next six months is actually causing you this much mental distress, it's time to turn off the computer and go take a walk outside or talk to someone about your irrational anxiety. I promise the USPol thread on somethingawful.com won't lull the nation into a false sense of complacency and single-handedly swing the election to Trump in your absence.
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May 5, 2016 04:16
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DemeaninDemon posted:Yeah dude Trump hasn't even begun his assault on Hillary. Itll be ruthless. Relentless. Trump rallies will start offering aprons and rubber gloves to women attendees. You think you know misogyny? You haven't seen Trump misogyny.
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May 5, 2016 04:18
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Polls don't decide elections, demographics do. Demographic models of the primaries have been extraordinarily predictive thus far, and there's no reason to suspect they will cease to be so moving forward. You cannot win the Presidential office in the United States of America in TYOOL 2016 with only white male support; you must have support among women and/or minorities as well, and it is these who are the most repulsed by Trump. The idiots saying "well maybe Trump isn't so bad" are nigh-uniformly white dudes, because of course they loving are.
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May 5, 2016 04:20
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Quorum posted:Polls don't decide elections, demographics do. Demographic models of the primaries have been extraordinarily predictive thus far, and there's no reason to suspect they will cease to be so moving forward. You cannot win the Presidential office in the United States of America in TYOOL 2016 with only white male support; you must have support among women and/or minorities as well, and it is these who are the most repulsed by Trump. The idiots saying "well maybe Trump isn't so bad" are nigh-uniformly white dudes, because of course they loving are. All the people vaguely insinuating that Trump isn't so bad feel like Rob Lowe's character in The Grinder dramatically intoning "but what if he isnt?" with a cheesy drama soundtrack and expecting that to carry the entire point. Which, to be fair, is Trump's entire policy platform.
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May 5, 2016 04:23
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TheQat posted:looks like the first anti-trump ad from clinton is out: I actually laughed at Ted calling Trump a narcissist.
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May 5, 2016 04:23
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Why are we acting like Donald Trump isn't going to tack center when he's shown to be capable of completely changing his platform week to week based on what's playing well. And like what is with the belief that anyone aside from the peanut gallery is going to bother holding him to whatever positions he's changed on. He's not going to lose his base with a tack middle. His base is a personality cult. He could come out tomorrow in favor of open borders and he'd be met to wild applause by the people who were just cheering for him to ban Muslims and build a wall as long as he's got "strong" rhetoric to back it. JimRob, of Free Republic, went on a crusade banning anyone who thought hb2 was a good idea. Donald trump is an incredibly charismatic man who has been playing the crazy wing like a fiddle for the past 9 months and it's beyond stupid to assume he can't start playing to the wider masses. We live in a goddamn weird world and a bunch of people in here are spouting the same VSP opinions that we routinely mock for being so up the rear end of the idea of being a beltway insider.
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May 5, 2016 04:31
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Arzying season is off to a strong start!
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May 5, 2016 04:32
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Gio posted:Um, I don't understand what you were responding to. Trump's poll numbers with women will reach fedora levels. Like boomer white women might not even be a lock.
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May 5, 2016 04:37
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DemeaninDemon posted:Trump's poll numbers with women will reach fedora levels. Like boomer white women might not even be a lock. Trump is actually a goon. Instead of shitposting in USPOL he is just on TV doing it to millions of people.
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May 5, 2016 04:44
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KirbyKhan posted:Republican shopper openly chastizes food stamp recipient at Wal-Mart I'd love to know the amount she probably spent on social services via taxes. I could probably balance it on my fingertip.
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May 5, 2016 04:46
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Torpor posted:
Lol at the sound bite of graham, the junior to strom loving thurmond, calling donald trump "race baiting"
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May 5, 2016 04:57
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Has anyone ever asked Trump if he has stairs in his house?
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May 5, 2016 04:59
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Shbobdb posted:Has anyone ever asked Trump if he has stairs in his house? Trump would probably just start talking about the quality and quantity of the stairs and how they're very firm architecturally. The best stairs!
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May 5, 2016 05:12
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Freep had a great idea:. Vice Presidential candidate Allen loving war criminal West.
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May 5, 2016 05:13
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Quorum posted:Polls don't decide elections, demographics do. Demographic models of the primaries have been extraordinarily predictive thus far, and there's no reason to suspect they will cease to be so moving forward. You cannot win the Presidential office in the United States of America in TYOOL 2016 with only white male support; you must have support among women and/or minorities as well, and it is these who are the most repulsed by Trump. The idiots saying "well maybe Trump isn't so bad" are nigh-uniformly white dudes, because of course they loving are. Hmm, so this is the post that earns me a Yodatar. We come closer to finding the pattern (just kidding there is no pattern someone just apparently has way too much cash?????)
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May 5, 2016 05:13
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CelestialScribe posted:Oh my god. For the last loving time. Nobody is even talking about useless early GE polls, what they're saying is that Trump has burned every bridge he can in order to appeal to one single demographic (white men), and the days where white men alone decide the presidential election are dead and done (and to be fair to white men, Trump has over 50% disapproval ratings with them too). Women are over half the vote, racial minorities turn out to vote at high rates and have become a core component of the democratic coalition. Romney did well with women voters in 2012, and didn't do god awful with minority voters for a republican, and he still lost by a landslide. And lets just head off the whole "Trump is going to pivot to the center and recapture moderates  " bullshit right here and now, people aren't that stupid. I can tell you that no matter what Trump says, I will not forget in 6 months that he promised to ban half my family from entering the US because of their religion. Blacks aren't going to forget angry trump supporters clocking a black dude in the face on TV, while police stand by and do nothing, and Trump brags about how he's going to pay the guy's legal bills if he gets in trouble. We're not going to forget KKK grand wizards speaking out in support of trump. Latinos are never going to forget Trump standing up on stage, day after day, yelling to cheering crowds about his loving wall. They're not going to forget Trump calling Mexicans rapists and drug dealers. They're not going to forget the calls for mass deportations, because anyone with brownish skin who speaks anything remotely sounding like Spanish is "one of those illegal Mexicans" in America. Asians aren't going to forget how Trump constantly demonizes Asian countries, constantly portraying them as scheming thieves out to destroy America. They're not going to forget Trump making mocking Asian accents to laughing crowds. Women are going to remember when Trump, a man with zero qualifications for anything he's ever done in life, stands up on stage and calls a former senator and secretary of state "unqualified" to be president and claim she'd have 5% of the vote if she were a man. They aren't going to forget Trump spouting all the same poo poo every sexist boss they've ever worked for has said. If somehow trump hasn't threatened your specific race or ethnicity sufficiently yet, you've got him unapologetically recycling pro-Nazi slogans and taking on campaign volunteers covered in neo-nazi tattoos to remind you that you're next.
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May 5, 2016 05:14
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OtherworldlyInvader posted:And lets just head off the whole "Trump is going to pivot to the center and recapture moderates Hell, even if people don't remember because of mass amnesia/the most luxurious and amazing of pivots, all you have to do is swamp the airwaves with everything Trump's said so far and it'll effectively be like that pivot never happened.
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May 5, 2016 05:39
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Everblight posted:Yeah but if he picks like Sarah Palin or an animated cartoon Johnsonville Bratwurst, the VP debate with Julian Castro could be fun Castro vs Kasich could be fun to watch. Kasich would drone on about how hebalanced the budget and is totally awesome and Castro would just give zero fucks. MrChupon posted:This seems like a serious problem with our system. Do Jill Stein and Gloria La Riva get intelligence briefings? If not, what is the threshhold? Did Ross Perot get them? Only legitimate candidates get them so no, crazy fringe homeopathy people like Jill Stein don't count. Gail Wynand posted:Hillary Clinton Should Concede to Bernie Sanders Before The FBI Reveals Its Findings I've never understood how anyone ever considered Huffington post to be a good news site. Or is this piece supposed to be satire and just does a bad job conveying it?
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May 5, 2016 05:44
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Gerrymandering got brought up briefly awhile back... are there any states that are so broken due to redistricting garbage that the Democratics literally can't win there? See, I really want to see the reverse of Reagan/Mondale just for the absolute mind-breaking hilarity that would occur in the world of GOP and Fox News and I have a dream, a great and noble dream, that Texas and a few other deep, deep red states could flip. But things are so skewed GOP in some places it seems absolutely impossible. But is it?
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May 5, 2016 05:48
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Evil Fluffy posted:Castro vs Kasich could be fun to watch. Kasich would drone on about how hebalanced the budget and is totally awesome and Castro would just give zero fucks.
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May 5, 2016 05:51
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acejackson42 posted:Gerrymandering got brought up briefly awhile back... are there any states that are so broken due to redistricting garbage that the Democratics literally can't win there? See, I really want to see the reverse of Reagan/Mondale just for the absolute mind-breaking hilarity that would occur in the world of GOP and Fox News and I have a dream, a great and noble dream, that Texas and a few other deep, deep red states could flip. But things are so skewed GOP in some places it seems absolutely impossible. But is it?
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May 5, 2016 05:59
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However, ID laws and fuckery will ensure Florida is out of play for Hillary.
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May 5, 2016 06:03
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SpiderHyphenMan posted:The only effect gerrymandering has on the national level is in the House. It's not about states flipping, it's districts. Ah crap, now that I think about it that makes perfect sense. So, ah... how about that John Kasich guy, eh?
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May 5, 2016 06:06
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Shbobdb posted:However, ID laws and fuckery will ensure Florida is out of play for Hillary.
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May 5, 2016 06:07
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showbiz_liz posted:The UNC system generates an insane amount of wealth for NC. Without federal funding for education the entire UNC system is hosed, which means among other things that college basketball is hosed, and I doubt NC would let that happen. I don't know how long you've been paying attention to NC politics, but destroying the UNC system has been a long term goal for republicans since Jesse Helms was doing commentary at WRAL.
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May 5, 2016 06:08
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acejackson42 posted:Gerrymandering got brought up briefly awhile back... are there any states that are so broken due to redistricting garbage that the Democratics literally can't win there? See, I really want to see the reverse of Reagan/Mondale just for the absolute mind-breaking hilarity that would occur in the world of GOP and Fox News and I have a dream, a great and noble dream, that Texas and a few other deep, deep red states could flip. But things are so skewed GOP in some places it seems absolutely impossible. But is it? The more effective the gerrymander (as in, the more it goes against overall demographics), the more susceptible it is to those demographics changing. If you flip 2 districts with a total of 74 Democrats and 26 Republicans into a district of 50 Democrats and another of 26 Republicans and 24 Democrats, then it means that if things shift even slightly D (which they are, over time, as the percentage of people who are white goes down), then it falls apart. Gerrymandering luckily does expire, so even if things are hosed for a while, it can't hold up forever.
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May 5, 2016 06:08
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SpiderHyphenMan posted:The only effect gerrymandering has on the national level is in the House. It's not about states flipping, it's districts. Yeah, gerrymandering is pretty easy to misunderstand. Here's a neat video for those interested
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May 5, 2016 06:08
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Shbobdb posted:However, ID laws and fuckery will ensure Florida is out of play for Hillary. You should stop taking Scandal seriously.
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May 5, 2016 06:13
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Bushiz posted:Why are we acting like Donald Trump isn't going to tack center when he's shown to be capable of completely changing his platform week to week based on what's playing well. Because that has nothing to do with what makes him an unpalatable candidate in a general election. It's not about him "tacking center", the dude already has staked out moderate positions on a bunch of different issues, more moderate than Cruz. People hate him because he's Donald Trump, a boorish cartoon character. People aren't going to forget his persona, he's had more exposure than any other presidential candidate in history. None of his weaknesses go away if he tacks center. Also, the dude is a loving mess. I know a lot of people buy into this master puppeteer thing, and he's definitely incredibly savvy and talented and pretty smart, but the dude isn't making gross errors like flip-flopping 5 times on the same day or making insane accusations because he's a genius, he's doing it because he's a disconnected ego-maniac. He can't take even tiny amounts of criticism without becoming shockingly petty and personal. He's a hilariously bad candidate.
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May 5, 2016 06:26
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He is by far the worst major party candidate in history. The Democratic equivalent would be, like, nominating Sean Penn.
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May 5, 2016 06:30
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Trump is both the best and the worst thing about this cycle. The good part is his supporters are exposed as racist shitheels to the rest of the world, the bad part is that he has a realistic chance to be president. Im really glad that i dont have to live in the states for this mess, but i doubt anywhere will be safe from the fallout if hillary has a stroke/bill gets caught with a maid/other unknowable unknowns puts the orange hobgoblin in the hit seat. Demographically we should be safe, but america has a long track record of hamstringing itself. :artzy:
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May 5, 2016 06:55
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