|
Tayter Swift posted:six stages was still the best cuz he conveniently forgot about the whole Bayesian thing and just figured they were all independent events Specifically, he acted as if it would be the conjunction fallacy to suggest there was any correlation whatsoever
|
#
?
May 4, 2016 21:56
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 8, 2024 18:50 |
|
|
I bet nate silver feels that french thing where you think of the perfect thing to have said only after the opportunity has past, and it tortures you Months and months ago he probably looked at the numbers and had the thought "according to all the models that made me famous, trump has this thing", but then brushed it aside and went with common sense. If only he had stuck to his old philosophy of trusting the science of modern polling, then he and 538 could have ascended to the status of legendary precognosticators for calling Trump when every other organization declared the polling to be irrelevant. Instead the hero of accurate-prediction-in-the-face-of-overwhelming-ridicule goes to Ann loving Coulter
|
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2016 22:20
|
|
|
L'esprit d'escalier
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2016 22:27
|
|
|
I prefer the more pedestrian saying, "the stair-way wit" because it shows that I'm both aware of the phrase, and I can drop it at an applicable moment without showing off.
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2016 22:30
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/718836449424977920
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2016 22:31
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2016 23:38
|
|
|
Powercrazy posted:I prefer the more pedestrian saying, "the stair-way wit" because it shows that I'm both aware of the phrase, and I can drop it at an applicable moment without showing off. 
|
|
#
?
May 4, 2016 23:50
|
|
|
Trumps Baby Hands posted:I bet nate silver feels that french thing where you think of the perfect thing to have said only after the opportunity has past, and it tortures you eh I dunno I still think the gop race was essentially decided by isis and those wanna-bes in San Bernardino
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 00:50
|
|
|
Then again the other eighteen candidates were incompetent loving garbage so  Where have all the Ike's gone
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 00:51
|
|
|
Nat Silver more like Nate Bronze since that shine is diminished.
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 00:58
|
|
|
Oil! posted:I think it happens when you are in an industry where even with 100% accurate forecasting of uncommon or rare events, people always assume that 1% event occurring is proof the forecaster sucks. The amount of time I have to explain that 20% of our wells will fall out of our P10-P90 range is depressing. The problem wasn't that he was incorrect, it's how he was incorrect and how he refused to change in the face of overwhelming evidence against what he was saying. He got pretty lucky in that 08 and 12 were straightforward elections that were easy to model and even then you could do basic poll averaging and get the same result he got. And poo poo, even give the guy a pass for not catching on early. But the results of Iowa, which many like Nate used as evidence against Trump was actually really obviously strong evidence he had a real good loving chance if you understood how to parse the numbers and weren't desperate to prove how right you were months ago. Besides that though, there was evidence even very early on that Trump had a good chance and I can't be the only one that picked up on those signals-- I think I put Trump at a strong chance as early as July- August. But you had to be on the ground and familiar with what your typical republican was thinking early on- that's why I think a lot of people here messed it up so badly as well, they just plain don't talk to republicans or even know many. That leads to getting filtered information and not truly understanding, for example, how loving pissed off the base was and no, it was much different than the establishment hate that normally goes on. At the end of the day he made the classic statistics error of using fancy models (that he doesn't really understand) to try and bend reality to your preconceived notion rather than just looking at what the data is actually telling you. See it all the loving time, particularly in social science research.
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 01:19
|
|
|
Tayter Swift posted:eh I dunno I still think the gop race was essentially decided by isis and those wanna-bes in San Bernardino Nah. Though boiling down complex events to single, simple explanations is a very common mistake laypeople make and why most people suck at predictions.
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 01:20
|
|
|
-10% ANY DAY NOW!
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 01:41
|
|
|
I guess I first realized that Trump was for real after the McCain incident made his numbers go UP and he ignored the media blitz right after to drop out. Then in December when it became obvious the Republicans had no plan for him, were still in denial about what was happening, that's when I knew. That's when I knew Trump is going to be president.
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 01:47
|
|
|
Wikkheiser posted:Nat Silver more like Nate Bronze since that shine is diminished. Nate Tarnished Mods doing great with thread titles
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 02:57
|
|
|
This isn't as embarrassing as writing the 15 increasingly desperate columns about why Trump isn't really winning, but it is more baffling. Like how hard is it to look at the primary schedule, the different winner take all rules, and realize what actually happened was indeed possible? This was only a few weeks ago he tweeted this
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 03:02
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 03:16
|
|
|
Bernice Anders posted:I guess I first realized that Trump was for real after the McCain incident made his numbers go UP and he ignored the media blitz right after to drop out. Then in December when it became obvious the Republicans had no plan for him, were still in denial about what was happening, that's when I knew. he's still not going to be president now that the people voting in a race including him include people who aren't white
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 04:04
|
|
|
Fast Luck posted:This isn't as embarrassing as writing the 15 increasingly desperate columns about why Trump isn't really winning, but it is more baffling. Like how hard is it to look at the primary schedule, the different winner take all rules, and realize what actually happened was indeed possible? This was only a few weeks ago he tweeted this throwing good money after bad
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 07:57
|
|
|
oh man nate is not having a good year
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 14:50
|
|
|
My favorite thing about Enten at least, and I think Nate too, is that there's this pretense that he doesn't vote because as a journalist he's supposed to remain neutral. At the same time, of course, they've both been attacking Trump the whole cycle. I don't think there's anything wrong with journalists having opinions, and Trump is evil so attacking him is good; it's the part where they have this weird samurai ethos about the honorable thing to do as a journalist despite that.
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 15:21
|
|
|
Fast Luck posted:This isn't as embarrassing as writing the 15 increasingly desperate columns about why Trump isn't really winning, but it is more baffling. Like how hard is it to look at the primary schedule, the different winner take all rules, and realize what actually happened was indeed possible? This was only a few weeks ago he tweeted this I think a running theme from this election cycle was that Nate doesn't understand momentum (at least when it doesn't involve the "party uniting"). Wins foster more wins, and a loser candidate will find it almost impossible to bounce back from repeated loses. Once Trump won New Hampshire and South Carolina back to back (in addition to getting second place in Iowa!) a logical pundit should have realized he was the large favorite to win because after winning 2 of the first 3 primaries the momentum is overwhelmingly on that candidate's side. In fact every eventual GOP presidential choice since 1976 has won at least 2 of the first 3 states. After Nevada and Super Tuesday it should have been even more painfully obvious that Trump had all the momentum outside of a narrow region that backed Ted Cruz. Yet even until the bitter end he entertained the hilarious vision that somehow Trump had an absolute limit on his support that he had already reached, and if only all the other candidates but one dropped out somehow those voters would unite perfectly against Trump. It really is stunning looking back over the last 9 months of polling data that almost no pundits predicted that the candidate who held an almost uninterrupted lead in polling on the national level, in NH, and SC could possibly win the party's nomination.
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 17:43
|
|
|
There are some that predicted it, it's just loud people were trying to deny it. I don't even think it's about momentum either, Trump was winning from beginning to end, and his loss in Iowa was because that's evangelical country, he went on to lose states like Kansas the same way
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 17:58
|
|
|
nates problem is the same one that exists here. Its not that he doesn't talk to republicans, its that he doesn't know a single normal person and has his head up his rear end.
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 19:26
|
|
|
nate's actual fundamental flaw is that https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/728303624040894464
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 21:49
|
|
|
(The screenshot is better)
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 21:51
|
|
|
Nate Silver's a bitch. He and Harry Enten have been melting down on twitter today about how polls were more accurate than pundits without any real admission that they hosed up by engaging in massive punditry themselves. Nate at least said the political science models may not be any better than conventional wisdom in that there's small sample sizes and it only shows what happens if underlying conditions remain the same, but I guess you can't really expect him to say 'I'm running an entire media platform now and have to produce hack bullshit articles because just aggregating polls doesn't produce enough clicks anymore.'
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 23:31
|
|
|
so what's next now that silver is done do we go back to Sam wang or sheep entrails or just an eternal or what
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 23:43
|
|
|
Tayter Swift posted:so what's next now that silver is done RCP and other polling aggregates.
|
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 23:55
|
|
|
Polls are genuinely the most reliable indicator we have (alongside demographic data for primaries maybe since polling data is so limited), but Silver doesn't own the concept of aggregating polls. If people want to use 538 as their source for polling info, I don't think there's anything wrong with that, but there are other sources too. Punditry is interesting and gives political junkies something to obsess over, so it's never going away, but I think the idea that Silver's some sort of wizard who's above creating lovely clickbait to feed that demand should be considered pretty thoroughly debunked at this point. Turns out he's just as susceptible to groupthink as anyone else. A lot of his defense this week has essentially been "If you ignore all the things we got wrong, we actually got everything right too." Dr Kool-AIDS has issued a correction as of 00:00 on May 6, 2016 |
|
#
?
May 5, 2016 23:56
|
|
|
Tayter Swift posted:so what's next now that silver is done Actually, 538 just starting holding debates in front of a live audience:  I'm guessing Nate's wall-to-wall Trump coverage has actually made him mad cash so far.
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2016 01:00
|
|
|
Tayter Swift posted:so what's next now that silver is done Benchmark Politics is pretty good even though they absolutely screwed me on Indiana.
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2016 01:39
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:Benchmark Politics is pretty good even though they absolutely screwed me on Indiana. From their frontpage:  Personally, I'd just stick to the proven polls-plus model.
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2016 02:13
|
|
|
SNAKES N CAKES posted:From their frontpage: Benchmark has been closer on average than polls plus. Assuming you're not being sarcastic about polls plus, because lol.
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2016 02:21
|
|
|
SNAKES N CAKES posted:From their frontpage: A screenshot of excel with the default heatmap applied....my wallet!!!! And the same heatmap applied to the total row, buy the thresholds are differ et.., my freaking wallet!!!!!!!!!!
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2016 03:36
|
|
|
Sinteres posted:My favorite thing about Enten at least, and I think Nate too, is that there's this pretense that he doesn't vote because as a journalist he's supposed to remain neutral. At the same time, of course, they've both been attacking Trump the whole cycle. I don't think there's anything wrong with journalists having opinions, and Trump is evil so attacking him is good; it's the part where they have this weird samurai ethos about the honorable thing to do as a journalist despite that. On the podcast after NY, Nate said that he was able to register late somehow and cast his vote strategically to make the biggest impact. He lives in Manhattan so he probably voted for Kasich.
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2016 03:50
|
|
|
Nate Silver is a mistake, Nate Silver is a waste
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2016 03:52
|
|
|
Sebadoh Gigante posted:On the podcast after NY, Nate said that he was able to register late somehow and cast his vote strategically to make the biggest impact. He lives in Manhattan so he probably voted for Kasich. Okay, fair enough. Enten definitely said he doesn't vote on Twitter though.
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2016 04:01
|
|
|
How's 538 been with the down ballot stuff anyway?
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2016 04:45
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 8, 2024 18:50 |
|
|
citybeatnik posted:How's 538 been with the down ballot stuff anyway? Better than Bernie Sanders at least 
|
|
#
?
May 6, 2016 04:48
|
|