|
an 8 week campaign how quaint
|
#
?
May 9, 2016 21:31
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 8, 2024 19:07 |
|
|
oystertoadfish posted:an 8 week campaign It's super long by Australian standards, actually. I'm surprised that it is considered long, but I guess that's because it feels like every election drags on forever.
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 00:30
|
|
|
oystertoadfish posted:an 8 week campaign it sounds like an impossible dream
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 01:52
|
|
|
a lot of other countries have aspects of democracy that we might balk at but in general the parliamentary form seems so much less pervertable than our weird as poo poo first-past-the-post only two parties matter shitshowMysticalMachineGun posted:It's super long by Australian standards, actually. I'm surprised that it is considered long, but I guess that's because it feels like every election drags on forever. yeah the canucks were complaining about the fatigue after their like 13 week one or whatever last year i get how not having guaranteed elections every two years makes the campaign more of an 'oh poo poo government dissolved time to start kissing babies' thing rather than a perpetual reality that really never ends (also for that matter not having a powerful president takes the gigantic headline race everybody hyperventilates over in the usa out of the equation, maybe that has an effect) but that doesnt make it unquaint my brother lives in melbourne he was telling me about that motor enthusiasts party i guess that kind of thing shows the arguable shortcomings of non-first-past-the-post voting. i guess. i dunno i hope yall start getting hella detailed wrt electoral analysis and poo poo i would enjoy the learning experience. but i already said that once
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 02:00
|
|
|
oystertoadfish posted:my brother lives in melbourne he was telling me about that motor enthusiasts party i guess that kind of thing shows the arguable shortcomings of non-first-past-the-post voting. I think most people see that as a benefit rather than a flaw. oystertoadfish posted:i guess. i dunno i hope yall start getting hella detailed wrt electoral analysis and poo poo i would enjoy the learning experience. but i already said that once There's a real dearth of data for Australian electoral analysis so you'll never get the level of detail you get in the US. http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/ is worth checking out.
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 02:17
|
|
|
open24hours posted:I think most people see that as a benefit rather than a flaw. thanks for that link. i'll try to keep track of it. and yeah im almost arguing against myself wrt to the random third party (as we'd say in the us, anyway) people getting in, it feels like it'd be better than our system but i know the grass is always greener on the other side and no system can possibly be without shortcomings anyway that link's a great start for me thanks
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 02:19
|
|
|
oystertoadfish posted:my brother lives in melbourne he was telling me about that motor enthusiasts party i guess that kind of thing shows the arguable shortcomings of non-first-past-the-post voting. i guess. i dunno i hope yall start getting hella detailed wrt electoral analysis and poo poo i would enjoy the learning experience. but i already said that once Ironically Ricky from the Motoring Enthusiast Party has been one of the better senators. So apparently democracy sucks and we should just have our leaders chosen by lottery.
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 02:22
|
|
|
oystertoadfish posted:thanks for that link. i'll try to keep track of it. and yeah im almost arguing against myself wrt to the random third party (as we'd say in the us, anyway) people getting in, it feels like it'd be better than our system but i know the grass is always greener on the other side and no system can possibly be without shortcomings I think this link is also pretty useful to seeing how Muir could be elected with 0.51% primary vote, it walks through the runoffs and you can see how the votes moved.
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 02:22
|
|
|
LAMBIE *CLICK*
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 02:39
|
|
|
i am very excited for the prospect of us managing to fit in a sixth change of prime minister in the time its taken for america to go through one president
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 02:40
|
|
|
WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Ironically Ricky from the Motoring Enthusiast Party has been one of the better senators. So apparently democracy sucks and we should just have our leaders chosen by lottery. that's cool, i think some of the old grecian city-states did a random lottery for their officials, but some of those old democracies made some pretty suicidal decisions, but but that basically has no relevance to modern society The Narrator posted:I think this link is also pretty useful to seeing how Muir could be elected with 0.51% primary vote, it walks through the runoffs and you can see how the votes moved. this is fascinating and i dont really understand it, but it seems like when candidates are excluded their votes went in a bloc to one other? so for example on count 12 when the australian voice party got excluded, all their votes went to the sex party on third preference? but it gets split a few other times, like count 19. something about ticket X of Y too, i see that taking effect in particular early on, when multiple members from the big-name parties got through early on. interesting man, a LOT of these minor party voters had the motorers down somewhere on their preference list, huh? shooters and fishers, fishing and lifestyle make some sense, stable population party, family first are a bit random. i'm noting how chunks of votes 'originally from' someone else found their way to the motoring party after their earlier choices had been eliminated. i guess they were just the minor party with the broadest appeal among people willing to fill out like 15 preference choices? count 25 sending 5000+ votes from the country alliance party to the sex party is funny to me as well man, that HEMP party getting eliminated sent one of the largest chunks to the motorers before the last few cycles when they really racked up millionth-preference votes. i remember in colorado i read about some brave pothead who will be remembered as a man before his time, who went before the commission or w/e and argued that anybody with some level of tolerance to weed could drive just fine when high and it shouldn't be illegal. wonder if there's any connection there i think the main example of a similar preference vote clusterfuck in american electoral history was the oakland mayoral race and i think that mayor was considered to have done a pretty bad job, but i might be wrong about that too aaaaaaaaaaaaaaanyway thanks so much for that link! i have sperged enough oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 03:01 on May 10, 2016 |
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 02:56
|
|
|
Ahh Yes posted:LAMBIE
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 02:57
|
|
|
oystertoadfish posted:aaaaaaaaaaaaaaanyway thanks so much for that link! i have sperged enough I have an excellent blogger for you who wrote a description of the current state of play http://www.pipingshrike.com/2016/05/locked-in.html. The problem for the electorate is that they know something's wrong but they keep getting hammered with the same messages from the parties trying to pretend its business as usual. Add to that the longest election campaign since 1969 (only 10 days longer than this one will be), and I figure week 3 will be when most switch off, and week 5 will be utterly dire.
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 04:07
|
|
|
Sounds like Abbott supporters are attacking Federal Liberal members who voted for Turnbull in the leadership challenge. The member for Eden Monaro, Peter Hendy and Fiona Scott in Western Sydney are current targets. So much for being a good boy and not sniping hey Tones?
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 04:11
|
|
|
He's not responsible if people decide to snipe for him 
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 04:13
|
|
|
I had a few stabs at answering your questions already which got quite wordy and complicated, but I think I've managed to work out the big ideas. For reference (and I didn't realise this before, sorry), I'll point you to the AEC website, because the ABC vote was actually just a projection. AEC results for the Victorian senate election, how each of the 291 counts(!) turned out, is here. Some good info on how voting and preferences work here Parties will often field several candidates. They themselves have their own preferential "position". So Mitch Fifeld was the LNP's no 1 - he would get the "LNP 1" votes first from above-the-line voting (where you just preference parties rather than each individual candidate). Each party normally works out preference flow deals for above-the-line voting, too. The Pirate Party and the Wikileaks party might agree to share preferences - so if the Pirate party gets cut, all their ATL preferences will go to Wikileaks and vice-versa. Do this between enough tiny parties with different preference deals, and with enough of them being cut, and eventually you'll wind up with some strange results. So there's two main ways that votes will change: when someone has more than enough votes, and when no-one has enough votes to get a position. An election will have a certain amount of votes you need to win to get the position, called a 'quota'. The quota works out like this: code:When someone hits that number, they win. Any extra votes will get sent off to other candidates. So LNP's Mitch Fifeld got 1,354,060 votes, but only needed 483,076 . He gets the first spot (had the most votes straight-up), and then the remaining 870,984 get moved around. Because the LNP fielded more than one candidate, a lot of these will just go to the next LNP person. 870,651 votes went to LNP's #2. The remaining 333 went to other people - this was probably from people doing below-the-line voting who put Mifeld as their #1 and then [candidate from another party] as their #2. So whenever someone wins a spot in this election, you're going to see 483,076 votes 'locked in' in a sense. The remainders will get shuffled around according to preferences. The other way votes move is when there's a count that someone hasn't won. So when we get to count 6, there's not enough votes for a single person floating around to elect someone outright. So now we take the candidate with the least overall votes, Samuel White, and cut him out, giving his one vote (lol) to that single voter's #2 preference. In this case, it goes to Geoffrey Hammett of the Pirate Party. No-one has the quota yet, so in count 7 we take J Beregszaszi's five votes and move them according to preferences. And so on until we hit a quota and have to allocate surpluses. So you might be starting to see how these preference deals can end up with strange results and why people might get pissed off - turns out my tiny single-issue party did a shitload of weird preference deals and now my vote ended up with the Fart-Huffer Party, who had enough preferences from microparties to get in. Just a month or so ago, the senate passed Optional Preferential Voting. Now, you just have to number at least 6 boxes above the line or 12 boxes below the line. After that, your preferences will just stop and get taken out of the pool. The Narrator has issued a correction as of 05:24 on May 10, 2016 |
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 05:14
|
|
|
very interesting. thanks so much for the explanation and the links. the party deciding where votes go is one aspect of some parliamentary non-first-past-the-post systems that i think wouldn't go over well in america, incidentally - but i think i see how it contributed toward the results my brother also said that, much (or at least a little bit) to his consternation, most of his aussie friends thought he was so lucky for not having to vote. a certain type of american thinks that having your requirement to vote would make our democracy better. it's interesting to see the differences between the systems that crazy-rear end senate election system reminds me of one of the things i love about aussie sports - the afl finals system and that mcintyre final eight that nrl fans were lame enough to ditch in favor of the afl system. i like complicated poo poo - but i would've thought most voters would disagree with me
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 05:26
|
|
|
it's worth remembering that Gillard announced the date of the 2013 election months in advance, so while it's a long formal campaign it's not like we haven't had this kind of thing beforeoystertoadfish posted:very interesting. thanks so much for the explanation and the links. the party deciding where votes go is one aspect of some parliamentary non-first-past-the-post systems that i think wouldn't go over well in america, incidentally - but i think i see how it contributed toward the results I did a big writeup of our Senate Voting system for a previous Auspol thread. Some of it is framed around the proposed (and implemented) changes, but it should make sense regardless
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 06:23
|
|
|
this kind of constituent service is exactly what i was hoping for when i started whining in this thread, so thank you for continuing to inform me i gotta go to bed yall its late on the other side of the world but ima read your post and learn this poo poo. and then i will read the thread. and learn. i will learn
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 06:29
|
|
|
ewe2 posted:I have an excellent blogger for you who wrote a description of the current state of play http://www.pipingshrike.com/2016/05/locked-in.html. Quoth the server 404. Any ideas? Sounds like an interesting/facebookable bit of information.
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 06:31
|
|
|
Vahtooch posted:Quoth the server 404. Any ideas? Sounds like an interesting/facebookable bit of information. yeah that link's dead but i found the real article after he posted it http://www.pipingshrike.com/2016/05/locked-in.html he put a . inside the [url] brackets, that's the only problem there ok NOW im going to bed the thing in his post about the electorate switching off at week x is so funny because the basic american assumption, with our 12+ month campaigns, is that only the hardcore will be paying attention early on and then the rest switch on as the major calendar items tick off with a constant cascade of People Giving A gently caress until almost the day of the election. i guess people adapt to the stimuli with which they are bombarded in different ways depending on the patterns ok NOW oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 06:37 on May 10, 2016 |
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 06:34
|
|
|
I miss the tally room. It doesn't feel right if we aren't going to have results put up on a big official board.  Plus it stopped the TV networks trying to out-stupid each other with woodchippers.
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 07:07
|
|
|
Vahtooch posted:Quoth the server 404. Any ideas? Sounds like an interesting/facebookable bit of information. Remove the full stop at the end of the url
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 07:20
|
|
|
oystertoadfish posted:yeah that link's dead but i found the real article after he posted it Whoops sorry, I misplaced the 2nd url tag quote:the thing in his post about the electorate switching off at week x is so funny because the basic american assumption, with our 12+ month campaigns, is that only the hardcore will be paying attention early on and then the rest switch on as the major calendar items tick off with a constant cascade of People Giving A gently caress until almost the day of the election. i guess people adapt to the stimuli with which they are bombarded in different ways depending on the patterns There are lots of reasons why they differ: * One major difference is that you have several elections going on at once, which is the big confusion for us who have elections at different levels of government at different times (most of the time). * And you elect your "electors" or delegates to decide who will lead the party in the general election, where here the parties decide who leads internally. This means a lot more attention gets paid by voters to internal party politics, which is actually a good thing. If we were more engaged with what actually happens at party level we'd be a more responsive electorate. Many journalists and bloggers try to improve this here, which is probably why our twitter is so rampant. * We voters don't register our party preference either, so that "lock-in" effect doesn't happen. Although in practice, people will vote on party-lines anyway. This is probably the most least-understood aspect of the US system for us, partly because your rules are all over the place depending on party and state, but it's more the idea that you would lock in your decision so far out from the result. * Voting is compulsory here too, that doesn't improve engagement until the sharp end, by which time, especially in this election, one or more of the parties representatives are definitely going to say something so unbelievably stupid and awful Tony Abbott will have to hand in his award for worst politician of all time.
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 08:27
|
|
|
im writing in abott
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 09:52
|
|
|
up the grubes!!!
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 09:57
|
|
|
You Am I posted:Sounds like Abbott supporters are attacking Federal Liberal members who voted for Turnbull in the leadership challenge. The member for Eden Monaro, Peter Hendy and Fiona Scott in Western Sydney are current targets. We should be grateful. The more divided they are, the less of a chance they get in.
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 10:04
|
|
|
Speaking of greens preference deals https://twitter.com/DavidLeyonhjelm/status/729945742798786561 shut up david
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 10:07
|
|
|
BS is so full of poo poo when he says he wouldnt do a minority govt with the Greens of course he would its one of those guarantees like Gillard's "There's more chance of me becoming the full-forward for the Dogs" one
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 10:46
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/LiberalAus/status/729802808413708290?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 11:09
|
|
|
Did Bill Shorten piss on your cat or something
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 11:26
|
|
|
If he did that to mine it's their own drat fault for falling asleep too deeply for their own good.
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 11:35
|
|
|
Jesus Christ... https://twitter.com/1exi/status/729998217790689280
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 12:38
|
|
|
honestly i care more about who wins masterchef than who wins Grayndler
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 12:42
|
|
|
Negligent posted:honestly i care more about who wins masterchef than who wins Grayndler if you favorite in masterchef doesn't win, will you move to say i don't know peru?
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 12:50
|
|
|
i dont really care who wins masterchef we are all winners already because we got to watch a great tv show
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 12:54
|
|
|
Honestly didn't realise Masterchef was still going holy lol at the that frontpage, it's only day 3 oh my god
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 12:57
|
|
|
Orkin Mang posted:im writing in abott 
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 13:06
|
|
|
The new season of master chef just started so you can jump on board now and not miss much
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 13:14
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 8, 2024 19:07 |
|
|
What have they been smoking at the tele and where can I get some?
|
|
#
?
May 10, 2016 13:17
|
|