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Bass Bottles
Jan 14, 2006

BOSS BATTLES DID NOTHING WRONG

You can't hide your lyin' eyes
And your smile is a thin disguise

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Crows Turn Off
Jan 7, 2008


Only the Democratic Party can gently caress up going against Trump. Please prove me wrong.

Nichael
Mar 30, 2011


Crows Turn Off posted:

Only the Democratic Party can gently caress up going against Trump. Please prove me wrong.

Well, the Democratic Party and the best slate of Republican primary candidates this country has ever seen! I mean, however did Trump stop challengers like the sleepy doctor, the Canadian goblin man, or Jeb!?

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

Nichael posted:

Well, the Democratic Party and the best slate of Republican primary candidates this country has ever seen! I mean, however did Trump stop challengers like the sleepy doctor, the Canadian goblin man, or Jeb!?

JEB‽

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003


interrobang for the loss

ALL-PRO SEXMAN posted:

That's William Lygon, the Earl Beauchamp. He was the governor of New South Wales.

bad-rear end knowledge

Al! posted:

speaking of anderson cooper

and lol i was about to say

"wiki posted:

When political enemies threatened to make public his homosexuality he resigned from office to go into exile

except anderson vanderbilt didnt ahve to resign poo poo so thats nice

for that matter this post also ~somehow~ seems relevant

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost
If Trump costs him his Senate seat he's going to spend his last days making out with his boyfriend on the very same historical lawn where Strom Thurmond hated the poo poo out of black people

Chokes McGee
Aug 7, 2008

This is Urotsuki.

Crows Turn Off posted:

Only the Democratic Party can gently caress up going against Trump. Please prove me wrong.

Okay, am I being spectacularly dense or is there a subtext to this poll I'm not getting? Because all I'm seeing with these charts is "86% of Republicans say they will vote for the Republican and not for the Democrat" which is... news, I guess?

If anything that seems a little low.

Crows Turn Off
Jan 7, 2008


Chokes McGee posted:

Okay, am I being spectacularly dense or is there a subtext to this poll I'm not getting? Because all I'm seeing with these charts is "86% of Republicans say they will vote for the Republican and not for the Democrat" which is... news, I guess?

If anything that seems a little low.
The second tweet shows that Clinton is only up by 4 points nationally.

skaboomizzy
Nov 12, 2003

There is nothing I want to be. There is nothing I want to do.
I don't even have an image of what I want to be. I have nothing. All that exists is zero.

Chokes McGee posted:

Okay, am I being spectacularly dense or is there a subtext to this poll I'm not getting? Because all I'm seeing with these charts is "86% of Republicans say they will vote for the Republican and not for the Democrat" which is... news, I guess?

If anything that seems a little low.

It's right on par with 2012. Registered voters of a party go with that party's candidate around 85-88% of the time in polling.

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost
I really hate how phone banking is done now by the way because they always use numbers that are obviously out of state so everyone loving instantly hangs up unless they have a land line, and IF they have a land line they are 30958490583904 years old

Princess Di
Apr 23, 2016

by zen death robot

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Pick posted:

I really hate how phone banking is done now by the way because they always use numbers that are obviously out of state so everyone loving instantly hangs up unless they have a land line, and IF they have a land line they are 30958490583904 years old

Which makes it all the more hilarious when Trump supporters try to unskew polls by bringing up Rasmussen's "data."

Third World Reagan
May 19, 2008

Imagine four 'mechs waiting in a queue. Time works the same way.

Crows Turn Off posted:

Only the Democratic Party can gently caress up going against Trump. Please prove me wrong.

That is a lot of elections. The stuff put out doesn't really turn people off of their chosen candidate. There is some work on independents but most of the work is trying to get their own team out.

Bad guy bad and pee pee end of the world.

It is why you always see hitler/fascist comparisons. It fires up their own base and doesn't dissuade anyone else.

Literally red team good blue team bad.

The way you win is the other team is less competent and loses it by not getting out their voters.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Crows Turn Off posted:

Only the Democratic Party can gently caress up going against Trump. Please prove me wrong.

A lot of Republicans will stay home once they get tired of this election, which won't take long.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING

Pick posted:

If Trump costs him his Senate seat he's going to spend his last days making out with his boyfriend on the very same historical lawn where Strom Thurmond hated the poo poo out of black people

For the longest time, I've sensed an odd, Smithers-Burns type relationship between Graham and McCain. Okay, McCain's less of a jerk to Graham, but there's that sad, unrequited, inexplicable longing. I could see in pictures and videos when McCain and Graham were together, just the way Graham looked at McCain, it is the look of a man in love who knows the object of his affection will never reciprocate, but doesn't care as long as he's by his side. :unsmith:

Dr Dracula
Oct 30, 2015

by Nyc_Tattoo
Grimey Drawer

H5N1 posted:

You have no choice in the matter; the forces at play stretch far beyond your narrow ken.

Now ready yourself for the hat, for all shall wear the hat!

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost
I think Graham wishes he were McCain in so, so many ways. Including being born to admirals and to wealth and not to short-lived nobodies in a poo poo hole. But in a lot of ways Graham's success is more impressive. I think it's more misguided idolizing

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬

H5N1 posted:

You have no choice in the matter; the forces at play stretch far beyond your narrow ken.

Now ready yourself for the hat, for all shall wear the hat!

JosefStalinator
Oct 9, 2007

Come Tbilisi if you want to live.




Grimey Drawer
One thing to remember re: the polls is that Bernie is still technically competing and the Dems have not fully consolidated around Hillary, while Trump is semi-successfully doing so with Republicans. I would expect Trump to do well for a bit before Obama/Bill start getting more airtime stumping for Hillary, and Bernie calms down the angry Bernouts.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



JosefStalinator posted:

One thing to remember re: the polls is that Bernie is still technically competing and the Dems have not fully consolidated around Hillary, while Trump is semi-successfully doing so with Republicans. I would expect Trump to do well for a bit before Obama/Bill start getting more airtime stumping for Hillary, and Bernie calms down the angry Bernouts.

This seems about right, though I think it'll be Warren who calms down the Bernie people and tries to get them in line. I don't see Bernie making any gestures like that until like 3 weeks into the GE or some other dumbass time

It's all perception though, as it's only Bernie who believes he is still in the race. Clinton is now entirely ignoring the Primary except to ensure a California win (which is already ridiculously plausible). I expect some action from Clinton the week before California and everything else she'll ignore.

Nichael
Mar 30, 2011



This reminds me of a time I was at The Colbert Report. Stephen threw Wriststrong bracelets into the crowd, and I was lucky enough to actually catch one. I was so happy. That gif, though, is infinitely more chilling. In H5N1's prophetic visions of the future, does Trump throw these hats at those who dare to go hatless in order to mark them for death?

Majorian posted:

Which makes it all the more hilarious when Trump supporters try to unskew polls by bringing up Rasmussen's "data."
I honestly don't get this. How do polling companies make money if they routinely bias their results? Who is buying data from them that they know is wrong?

I'm not questioning their ability to make a profit (they clearly do or they wouldn't exist) and I'm not questioning their biased numbers. I just don't get who is interested in that data.

Nichael fucked around with this message at 09:44 on May 10, 2016

Third World Reagan
May 19, 2008

Imagine four 'mechs waiting in a queue. Time works the same way.
people who want to use that data to sway others

Venom Snake
Feb 19, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo

Crows Turn Off posted:

Only the Democratic Party can gently caress up going against Trump. Please prove me wrong.

Unless the democrats gently caress up so bad every minority in the country disappears Trump isn't winning in November.

JosefStalinator
Oct 9, 2007

Come Tbilisi if you want to live.




Grimey Drawer

Nichael posted:

This reminds me of a time I was at The Colbert Report. Stephen threw Wriststrong bracelets into the crowd, and I was lucky enough to actually catch one. I was so happy. That gif, though, is infinitely more chilling. In H5N1's prophetic visions of the future, does Trump throw these hats at those who dare to go hatless in order to mark them for death?

I honestly don't get this. How do polling companies make money if they routinely bias their results? Who is buying data from them that they know is wrong?

I'm not questioning their ability to make a profit (they clearly do or they wouldn't exist) and I'm not questioning their biased numbers. I just don't get who is interested in that data.

It's not so much that they're routinely biasing their results, but they have different methods for conducting their polls. They might use more landline phones, correct their polls with different demographic assumptions, etc. It's not even that Rassmussen is biased towards Republicans, it's just that the assumptions it makes when it does its polls tend to favor the Republicans more than the Dems.

Sometimes these polls are found to be right, too. It may be that more white men vote, or the younger don't vote, or something, and there really is a general skew towards Democrats relative to polling average. It's good to have a diversity of polling methods, and it's good to see what happens if you adjust the assumptions a bit.

Just keep in mind that it will probably exaggerate the Republicans' strengths a bit. That is, until it doesn't, and it turns out they do better than expected, and they were right all along (like in the 2010 midterms, or 2014 midterms).

FabioClone
Oct 3, 2004

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
Trump is all that matters. He is the protagonist of the story, and the climax will be Hillary Clinton herself wearing the hat.

This will happen.

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬
https://twitter.com/RogerJStoneJr/status/729935054160465925

Roger Stone is still going to have his rally and march even though the steal isn't happening anymore

XK
Jul 9, 2001

Star Citizen is everywhere. It is all around us. Even now, in this very room. You can see it's fidelity when you look out your window or when you watch youtube

Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2345

quote:

Florida - Clinton at 43 percent, with 42 percent for Trump and Sanders at 44 percent to Trump's 42 percent;

Ohio - Trump edges Clinton 43 - 39 percent, while Sanders gets 43 percent to Trump's 41 percent;

Pennsylvania - Clinton at 43 percent to Trump's 42 percent, while Sanders leads Trump 47 - 41 percent.

As for Trump not getting women

quote:

The gender gap is massive and currently benefits Trump

Prof. Lurker
Mar 10, 2015

I've got the fire of human liberty!

I'm setting fires everywhere!

And humans are turning on everywhere!


im mitt romney

Prof. Lurker
Mar 10, 2015

I've got the fire of human liberty!

I'm setting fires everywhere!

And humans are turning on everywhere!

lol every republican has already fallen in line save for some booty bothered neocon pundits

jackofarcades
Sep 2, 2011

Okay, I'll admit it took me a bit to get into it... But I think I kinda love this!! I'm Spider-Man!! I'm actually Spider-Man!! HA!
hm yes Trump will win Ohio by 4 thanks Qpac

edit: I'll save this post to own myself later

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Prof. Lurker posted:



im mitt romney

how do "very liberals" rate clinton higher than sanders. do words even matter anymore

etalian
Mar 20, 2006


I'm excited that the Dems did everything in their power to pick the worse canidate, who will be unable to win over swing state independent voters.

Krampus Grewcock
Aug 26, 2010

Gruss vom Krampus!

nachos posted:

how do "very liberals" rate clinton higher than sanders. do words even matter anymore

Denial.

mannerup
Jan 11, 2004

♬ I Know You're Dying Trying To Figure Me Out♬

♬My Name's On The Tip Of Your Tongue Keep Running Your Mouth♬

♬You Want The Recipe But Can't Handle My Sound My Sound My Sound♬

♬No Matter What You Do Im Gonna Get It Without Ya♬

♬ I Know You Ain't Used To A Female Alpha♬

nachos posted:

how do "very liberals" rate clinton higher than sanders. do words even matter anymore

makes as much sense as the "very liberals" supporting Cruz over Trump

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Ted Cruz releases a porno?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wn3xluIRh1Y

Yudo
May 15, 2003


Holy lol. Clinton is bad.

Ork of Fiction
Jul 22, 2013

etalian posted:

I'm excited that the Dems did everything in their power to pick the worse canidate, who will be unable to win over swing state independent voters.

Don't worry. All she has to do is convince people that the total evisceration of the middle class is actually good and that we're all better off now that the new smoke-and-mirrors-based finance industry bankrolling her has swallowed up everyone's pensions.

I mean, I certainly wouldn't want to be in Donald Trumps position going forward. He's going to have a sobering moment when he realizes that people hate job security and love intractable middle eastern conflicts. Like, HILLO Donnie Brasho! Reality's speaking!

Venom Snake
Feb 19, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo

etalian posted:

I'm excited that the Dems did everything in their power to pick the worse canidate, who will be unable to win over swing state independent voters.

Independent voters don't matter when your a majority of the electorate.


Ork of Fiction posted:

Don't worry. All she has to do is convince people that the total evisceration of the middle class is actually good and that we're all better off now that the new smoke-and-mirrors-based finance industry bankrolling her has swallowed up everyone's pensions.

I mean, I certainly wouldn't want to be in Donald Trumps position going forward. He's going to have a sobering moment when he realizes that people hate job security and love intractable middle eastern conflicts. Like, HILLO Donnie Brasho! Reality's speaking!

The people that have been screwed the most by the financial downturn aren't the middle class.

Venom Snake
Feb 19, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo
Overwhelmingly the people who got dealt the worst hand support Clinton but that won't stop the usual suspects spending the next 100 pages hand wringing about how the Dems are going to throw the election somehow.

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Yudo
May 15, 2003

Venom Snake posted:

Overwhelmingly the people who got dealt the worst hand support Clinton but that won't stop the usual suspects spending the next 100 pages hand wringing about how the Dems are going to throw the election somehow.

Phew, glad that's settled.

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